JESSEFEFFER

Also, consider this. With the 41st pick the Bills traded down to 44 and got the extra 5th. These became Kouwandjio and Richardson. These two players give them a chance to have a better starting offensive line this year along with better depth. In this regard having the 4th best OT prospect this year is better that the 1st or 2nd OT next year. The "bird in the hand > two in the bush" philosophy. I prefer this one: The value of a nail now versus a box of them later: For want of a nail the shoe was lost, for want of a shoe the horse was lost, for want of a horse the knight was lost, for want of a knight the battle was lost, for want of a battle the kingdom was lost. So a kingdom was lost—all for want of a nail. -JLA: The Nail

Picks in future drafts are generally discounted. Maybe its better to say that picks in a current draft have more value. Whaley obviously believes it as he wanted to retain their 2014 picks and managed to keep them out of the trade.

I think many people overestimate the value of a 1st round pick. because they overestimate the value of the draft. Salary cap restraints mean that free agency is a much more legitimate part of building a team. Less money devoted to rookie contracts = more money for free agents. Due to the way contracts are designed, some pretty good players get cut during training camp. Yeah, the Bills blew the Maybin pick but I think most would agree that trading for Hughes pretty much negated that mistake. Hughes was everything they could have hoped Maybin would be. Mel Kiper has made a career out of covering the NFL draft and having opinions about it. It's probably a VERY lucrative one considering that there is no real penalty fro being wrong, unlike the real scouts and GMs. I think the spectacle of the draft is such that fans do the same. This is all to say that surrendering a 1st round pick is not a franchise killer. There are other means to getting a new QB for 2015 other than a top 10 pick, if they so desire and the new QB will have Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin and maybe Mike Williams to throw to and what will probably be an upper echelon o-line to protect him.

But you are forgetting that this was an all-in move by the Bills so if EJ fails, Sammy Watkins, no matter how good he is, can no longer be on the roster and the next QB they bring in won't be able to throw to him. I think I heard that somewhere.

Then there are the <1% of "fans" that would rather be right than see their team succeed. Some psych student should do a thesis on them.

It also points out that EJ's play wasn't really what cost them the close games. EJ played poorly when the rest of the team was getting handled (this is true for most all QBs) and he was rarely the guy that made the critical mistake that prevented the team from winning the close games. It was often some critical drops/fumbles, poor special teams coverage or defensive collapse that ultimately did them in. It might be a good sign that with all that was lacking in EJ's game, the games were not ultimately lost due to his gaffes.

Some more Shawshank wisdom. That movie is on all the time and I have to watch at least some part of it at each chance.

If the Bills had the first pick in this draft apparently they would have taken Sammy. So that 1800 in the formula could be a 3000 or 2600 from the perspective of how they valued the player. They paid a market price based on where they took him. So if they evaluated him correctly then they made out fine.

I have the same opinion and I figured out why. Have you seen the movie ROB ROY? He looks like Tim Roth's Archibald Cunningham. A truly despicable, cocky little runt that made my skin crawl. I will never know him so in the absence of any real familiarity with him he becomes Archibald Cunningham in my mind. Maybe by the time the Bills play the Browns I'll have figured out how to post a Manziel/Roth picture for the look-a-like thread.

I have read only 3 pages of this so my input may be redundant. But....... 1) Nix said prior that he wanted to have a QB inplace prior to his retirement. 2) Nix said that the QB class was better than many were saying and that they had "identified" a player worthy of their pick. 3) Post draft Whaley was talking to a media group? season ticket holders? Bills Backers? inside a suite at the Ralph and raved about EJ's having the "it" factor and how he stood out when he entered a room. He also joked that if he was wrong about EJ then he'd be among the group in the near future rather than speaking to it-- clearly meaning that he expects his job to be riding on the pick. 4) Stories post draft mention how thoroughly EJ was scouted, including speaking to a caretaker at FSU's stadium. If I recall correctly . a group went to visit FSU that included Brandon and Marrone. This was very much an organizational effort as they will all succeed or fail based on their collective belief in this guy. If they are willing to stake what is likely to be their professional lives on him then I'm ok with giving him at least 3 years. EJ's rookie year (10 games ) was much like Joe Flacco's ( 16 games ) aside from the missed time. That's normally what rookies look like regardless of whether they ultimately succeed or not.

Much of what became the "Bickering Bills" label was the result of big egos, both young and old, deflecting blame and pointing fingers. Jim Kelly was point man for a lot of this. On his show, Thurman identified "Quarterback" as one of the problem areas on the team which , I think, spoke to this issue. One of the things I liked about Fitz was that he shouldered all the blame, warranted or not. He rightly believed that doing so was his responsibility as a leader and that it would allow his teammates to play without the burden having been "called out." It takes a lot of emotional maturity to do this. Mother-in-law to newlywed daughter-in-law: "I think my son should really start dating again. In fact, bigamy is a realistic option. I have recommended it to him."

It is unprecedented to draft 1st round QBs in back to back years. For TG to suggest that he thought this was a good idea is an insult in the 2nd degree. For EJ to sarcastically offer a "thank you" to him for his opinion as he was being pried away was about the best response possible. It's almost like handling a heckler while speaking in public. There are very few great options.

I am not a fan of pass catchers with abnormally high drop rates as drops often are the equivalent of turnovers. I prefer a large TE talent that can be an asset in goal line / short yardage run formations (where the Bills stunk and Marrone said they had a plan to improve.) Said TE should be a great blocker and excel at catching the ball above his head against man coverage underneath. This does not sound like Ebron to me.

Words of wisdom from Mike Holmgren. I just where that wisdom was when the Browns drafted a 28 year old QB in the first round.

I like the NFL network. They have commentators that can explain why a pick was made even when they don't personally agree with it. ESPN guys have to protect their egos to the point of having a tantrum.

My brother-in-law, who would retire after 30 years in the Marines as one of their highest ranking noncoms, was flying home from Oklahoma City and, upon seeing the rather new at the time list of banned items, remarked to his fiancee, "I guess we should have left the lawnmower home." After being detained and strip searched they missed their flight and had to take a later departure. My brother-in-law is a funny guy and the TSA people do not appreciate a sense of humor

Normalized meaning one number divided by another. Comp% (completions normalized to attempts) TD%, INT%, Yds/game, YPA, sack%, etc. Flacco hasn't missed a start which is commendable. He gets alot of credit from me in that regard. Taking hits in the NFL is like being in a car wreck once a week. Answering the bell for 96 starts + 13 playoff games is not a fluke. Here's hoping that EJ's injuries were.

Neither Flacco or E Manning won the SuperBowl in their rookie year. They both won it in year 5. EJs rookie year looks alot like Flacco's. The big difference is 10 vs. 16 games played. The first 3 statements are facts. The last is an opinion. I am not a homer or a doubter. I am a "wait and seer" which is the only sensible place to be. Making definitive conclusions based on little to no evidence is rather foolish, imo.

I am not excluding anything. Read the 2nd paragraph. That's my assessment. Joe Flacco's overall ability, much like Eli Manning's, has been the subject of much scrutiny amongst their interested observers. Given their 2013 seasons I suspect the doubters have gotten their 2nd wind.

The normalized production of EJ's and Flacco's rookie seasons are vitually identical. As far as 2013 goes, Flacco returned to rookie/EJ-like production once again in what was his sixth year. I do not think Flacco is elite nor is he on a HOF path. I doubt he can justify that contract he received espcecially since Baltimore had to purge their roster to accomodate it. He has held the starting job for 6 years (and not missed a game) and been good enough to get a consistently good team to the playoffs multiple times. Winning it all was surprising to me but Ozzie Newsome is generally credited with being one of the best organizational talent evaluators in the NFL and Flacco did not screw it up when they got their chance. So, using Joe Flacco as the standard for EJ is not really setting the bar too high, imo.

In defense of Charley Casserly, there is way more to a QBs draft evaluation than college tape. Lets say his opinion is largely true, it still does not say "these 7 are better NFL prospects." Because, in their present state, no rookie QB is good enough to be elite in the NFL. It's all about what they are likely to become rather than what they currently are. I do not think any team did a more thorough job of QB evaluation for the 2013 draft than the Bills. This went far beyond his college game tape which, which, along with the combine, is probably all the info Casserly has access to anymore. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9749030/buffalo-bills-qb-ej-manuel-stats-charts-espn-magazine “Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.” ― Aristotle Prediction: EJ Manuel will be at least as good a QB as Joe Flacco.

1) Some think that great QBs are chosen--like they are on some rack at Walmart. The painful truth is that they all have to develop and its never very clear as it happens. There's almost always much debate amongst interested observers while it's happening. Is this guy, ______ ______, good enough to win it all? I heard and read this about just about every QB taken in the first round. Right up until they won it all. By the way, Eli and Flacco were not very good last year. 2) Still hearing it said about guys like Rivers, Cutler, Stafford and Bradford. Don't let the Fantasy stats fool you. Their games have not totally developed and their teams haven't really won much with them. Cutler had 3 Fitzlike years and managed to keep his job. 2) When the Bills couldn't run the ball they would have trouble protecting their rookie QB. This was especially true in some road games (Jets I, Steelers, Bucs.) I was not surprised when their rookie QB looked bad in these games. Even then in the 4 pic Tampa game, 2 of those were not on EJ. So the worst you can say is that when his teammates struggled, so did he. 3) EJ's injuries were kind of fluky, imo. Two of them did not prevent him from finishing the game so they seemed rather mysterious at the time. It was "EJ wokeup this morning with a swollen knee.". The one in preseason was never tied to a particular play that I remember and the last one ocurred in the pocket with 300 lb. bodies rolling up his planted leg. Any QB risks serious injury risk with such a play. I remember Wil Wohlford doing this to Jimbo in 1990 in a game against the Giants. The sideline hit was EJ expecting to take a normal hit and be bumped out of bounds, which is usually what happens. The low hit was likely retalliation by TJ Ward for the hit Kiko put on Hoyer, imo. I hope EJ learned something. Even then he was on the sideline riding a stationery bike trying to convince someone he could still play. 4) EJ's 2013 season is what a rookie QB typically has when surrounded by middling talent. It's easy to think that the loss of practice time and game starts robbed EJ of a chance to show some real improvement to his game. 5) It's very likely that EJ is clearly better in 2014 but it's also likely that we are still debating whether he is the QB they need at this time next year. Realists (like me) know that patience is needed to get the answers and that the evidence won't always be definitive one way or the other. 6) He's got all the tools. Now he needs the reps and game experience.

Mike Williams has much more to offer than Kenny Britt and comes way cheaper than DeSean Jackson. Good move. I wonder who made the first phone call. TB or the Bills?

I did not see where anyone called you on this. Football Outsiders' TE ranking does not put Chandler as "one of the worst starting TEs in the league." It puts his production in the middle of TEs targetted 25 or more times. His DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) is near zero (-1.2) which means "middle of the pack." His rating is clearly better than Daniels, Pitta, Lewis, Rudolph, Fleener, Eifert, Pettigrew and Gresham, to name a few. Given the problems the Bills had at QB last year, average TE production is not bad. As to the Ebron/Evans question, I am in favor of adding an elite offensive talent to the roster. Anyone that can make opposing DCs worry about how they can match up and keep TJ Graham off the field or the roster entirely then the Bills will be a better offense. If some of these supposed 2nd round talents can do that, I'm OK with that too.

Going forward you have to wonder about the contracts Eli Manning and Joe Flacco got. These two guys performed worse than Bills' QBs last year and the demise of their team's roster makes you think that they might not return to succcess any time soon. Once a QB gets the huge deal which eats up 15+% of the cap, it is may more difficult to keep a championship roster together.