JESSEFEFFER

My brother-in-law, who would retire after 30 years in the Marines as one of their highest ranking noncoms, was flying home from Oklahoma City and, upon seeing the rather new at the time list of banned items, remarked to his fiancee, "I guess we should have left the lawnmower home." After being detained and strip searched they missed their flight and had to take a later departure. My brother-in-law is a funny guy and the TSA people do not appreciate a sense of humor

Normalized meaning one number divided by another. Comp% (completions normalized to attempts) TD%, INT%, Yds/game, YPA, sack%, etc. Flacco hasn't missed a start which is commendable. He gets alot of credit from me in that regard. Taking hits in the NFL is like being in a car wreck once a week. Answering the bell for 96 starts + 13 playoff games is not a fluke. Here's hoping that EJ's injuries were.

Neither Flacco or E Manning won the SuperBowl in their rookie year. They both won it in year 5. EJs rookie year looks alot like Flacco's. The big difference is 10 vs. 16 games played. The first 3 statements are facts. The last is an opinion. I am not a homer or a doubter. I am a "wait and seer" which is the only sensible place to be. Making definitive conclusions based on little to no evidence is rather foolish, imo.

I am not excluding anything. Read the 2nd paragraph. That's my assessment. Joe Flacco's overall ability, much like Eli Manning's, has been the subject of much scrutiny amongst their interested observers. Given their 2013 seasons I suspect the doubters have gotten their 2nd wind.

The normalized production of EJ's and Flacco's rookie seasons are vitually identical. As far as 2013 goes, Flacco returned to rookie/EJ-like production once again in what was his sixth year. I do not think Flacco is elite nor is he on a HOF path. I doubt he can justify that contract he received espcecially since Baltimore had to purge their roster to accomodate it. He has held the starting job for 6 years (and not missed a game) and been good enough to get a consistently good team to the playoffs multiple times. Winning it all was surprising to me but Ozzie Newsome is generally credited with being one of the best organizational talent evaluators in the NFL and Flacco did not screw it up when they got their chance. So, using Joe Flacco as the standard for EJ is not really setting the bar too high, imo.

In defense of Charley Casserly, there is way more to a QBs draft evaluation than college tape. Lets say his opinion is largely true, it still does not say "these 7 are better NFL prospects." Because, in their present state, no rookie QB is good enough to be elite in the NFL. It's all about what they are likely to become rather than what they currently are. I do not think any team did a more thorough job of QB evaluation for the 2013 draft than the Bills. This went far beyond his college game tape which, which, along with the combine, is probably all the info Casserly has access to anymore. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9749030/buffalo-bills-qb-ej-manuel-stats-charts-espn-magazine “Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.” ― Aristotle Prediction: EJ Manuel will be at least as good a QB as Joe Flacco.

1) Some think that great QBs are chosen--like they are on some rack at Walmart. The painful truth is that they all have to develop and its never very clear as it happens. There's almost always much debate amongst interested observers while it's happening. Is this guy, ______ ______, good enough to win it all? I heard and read this about just about every QB taken in the first round. Right up until they won it all. By the way, Eli and Flacco were not very good last year. 2) Still hearing it said about guys like Rivers, Cutler, Stafford and Bradford. Don't let the Fantasy stats fool you. Their games have not totally developed and their teams haven't really won much with them. Cutler had 3 Fitzlike years and managed to keep his job. 2) When the Bills couldn't run the ball they would have trouble protecting their rookie QB. This was especially true in some road games (Jets I, Steelers, Bucs.) I was not surprised when their rookie QB looked bad in these games. Even then in the 4 pic Tampa game, 2 of those were not on EJ. So the worst you can say is that when his teammates struggled, so did he. 3) EJ's injuries were kind of fluky, imo. Two of them did not prevent him from finishing the game so they seemed rather mysterious at the time. It was "EJ wokeup this morning with a swollen knee.". The one in preseason was never tied to a particular play that I remember and the last one ocurred in the pocket with 300 lb. bodies rolling up his planted leg. Any QB risks serious injury risk with such a play. I remember Wil Wohlford doing this to Jimbo in 1990 in a game against the Giants. The sideline hit was EJ expecting to take a normal hit and be bumped out of bounds, which is usually what happens. The low hit was likely retalliation by TJ Ward for the hit Kiko put on Hoyer, imo. I hope EJ learned something. Even then he was on the sideline riding a stationery bike trying to convince someone he could still play. 4) EJ's 2013 season is what a rookie QB typically has when surrounded by middling talent. It's easy to think that the loss of practice time and game starts robbed EJ of a chance to show some real improvement to his game. 5) It's very likely that EJ is clearly better in 2014 but it's also likely that we are still debating whether he is the QB they need at this time next year. Realists (like me) know that patience is needed to get the answers and that the evidence won't always be definitive one way or the other. 6) He's got all the tools. Now he needs the reps and game experience.

Mike Williams has much more to offer than Kenny Britt and comes way cheaper than DeSean Jackson. Good move. I wonder who made the first phone call. TB or the Bills?

I did not see where anyone called you on this. Football Outsiders' TE ranking does not put Chandler as "one of the worst starting TEs in the league." It puts his production in the middle of TEs targetted 25 or more times. His DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) is near zero (-1.2) which means "middle of the pack." His rating is clearly better than Daniels, Pitta, Lewis, Rudolph, Fleener, Eifert, Pettigrew and Gresham, to name a few. Given the problems the Bills had at QB last year, average TE production is not bad. As to the Ebron/Evans question, I am in favor of adding an elite offensive talent to the roster. Anyone that can make opposing DCs worry about how they can match up and keep TJ Graham off the field or the roster entirely then the Bills will be a better offense. If some of these supposed 2nd round talents can do that, I'm OK with that too.

Going forward you have to wonder about the contracts Eli Manning and Joe Flacco got. These two guys performed worse than Bills' QBs last year and the demise of their team's roster makes you think that they might not return to succcess any time soon. Once a QB gets the huge deal which eats up 15+% of the cap, it is may more difficult to keep a championship roster together.

Kenny Britt is a drive killer. Less than 50% catch rate of intended throws over the last two years and a high drop rate. Has the same effect to an offense as some turnovers do. No thanks.

Played some good football for the Titans last year. Three of his better games were against the Jags, Colts and Cards and were losses. Probably some combination of failures in the clutch that we all have witnessed in the past. He actually was more productive in the run game for them than for the Bills. But if he plays much it's very likely he will.............. Help mask problems in O-line play. Get the ball to his teammates and allow them to be more productive. Play without fear to the edge of being reckless and beyond. Take hits and stay in the game. Come up short in the clutch about half the time. Shoulder the blame for failures even when not his fault. I wish him well. He has made the most of what talent he has and I'd like to see him rewarded with some measure of professional success. My opinion was that he was always offered more as a QB than as a passer.

1) The Bills are not still paying him. The 7 million cap number is the remainder of the 10 million of the money already paid to him when he signed. 2) The Bills still thought enough of him to want to keep him on a reworked deal and gave him some time to let him consider his options. He sought a better opportunity elsewhere for pretty much the same deal he would have gotten from the Bills. 3) He can play well enough to make his teammates look good but ultimately he will screw up about 50% of the time in the clutch, His teammates would screw up 50% of the time and a 25% success rate in the clutch will get a coach fired. 4) He's about the best veteran backup EJ could have. He could win some games if needed especially if the defense and special teams do their part. I would feel good about having his voice in EJ's ear about how to conduct himself as a team leader. 5) The Bills would be a better team in 2014 with him in the QB room and that's the only thing that should matter.

Franchise QBs aren't drafted they are developed and drafting 2 in back-to-back years is like claiming to be engaged to two different women at the same time. Finding a guy who's talent and character you believe in and not committing to his development for at least 2 years is blatently dumb. That's why drafting a QB #1 in back-to-back drafts with the thought of having both on your roster hasn't been done before. Manning (E or P,) Flacco or Brees did not have rookie years that screemed Super Bowl winner. So, for TG to suggest that he's in favor of doing this dumb thing "because QB is the most important position" is both rhetorical provocative. So I like EJs sarcastic answer because it properly shows his emotional reaction to the provocation without resorting to baseline behaviour. EJ should be the primary focus es to be the primary focus of all the organizational resources they can muster. Improve the coaching, strengthen the legs, improve the talent around him in order to fully evaluate his potential to keep improving his game performance. I am with the others that say a mid round QB that the Bills think has good value and can improve the QB depth chart is a sensible thing to do.

I was thinking the same. In the entirety of Chan's coaching career he never had a QB with as much raw ability as EJ has. I think he was very good a getting what he could out of lower ceiling talents and he might just get excited over the prospect of developing a top tier talent. His style always seemed more professorial than dictatorial and he would easily manage the QB room.

He just may be Todd Marinovich 2.0. No thank you. Unaware and indecisive is no way to succeed at QB in the NFL. That's how EJ appeared to me at his worst moments but that's how rookies play when they are trying to be careful with the ball. The sideline hit he took in Cleveland was the worst of it. He never saw that guy coming or maybe assumed he'd make the tackle higher. Those extra four yards he gained beyond the first down was not worth the 4+ games he lost. He's lucky it wasn't a total blowout. Like the Gronkowski hit, human knees are not engineered to withstand such forces. I hope he learned something. He's got the tools, smarts and coachability so I am pretty certain he'll be better next year. Then we can debate whether he showed enough improvement to keep the job in his 3rd year.

I'd bet they'll get a holiday extension of the deadline.

I wonder if the Dolphin player that had him locked up and drove him over the pile after the whistle got a fine.

Any analysis that does not compare EJ to other NFL rookie QBs is unrealistic. I'd pick Flacco and Eli Manning as they have recently won Super Bowls with their fans doubting they had what it takes and talking about replacing them right up until they did so. Now they eat near 20 million in salary cap space and may never have a team good enough to win it again. They both had rather unspectacular rookie years as well. EJ often looks indecisive and unaware, especially in shotgun sets. Rookies tend to look that way and some never grow beyond it. It's tough to know when patience ceases to be a virtue and becomes delusional but it's not during the first year.

I think these rankings generally hold true but where the Bills have been weak is in allowing big TD plays. They certainly effect scoring but not 3rd down% (if on 1st or 2nd down) or redzone efficiency. Getting a healthier secondary should improve those numbers. I look for a strong finish from this defense.

As an update I think that the probability of winning one is up to 60% and both is up to 10% (Kiko 50% EJ at 20%). EJ's return to health gives him an improved chance and if he leads the Bills to a hot finish and maybe the playoffs, it will make an impression.

I was skeptical about his lack of production in college. I thought his presence in the offense last year was more hindrance than help and it looks much the same this year. I am a little biased though. I like what Naaman Roosevelt had to offer as an NFL WR and TJ basically bumped him off the roster. Superior hands, reliable routes, can make adjustments to beat defenders to the ball. I'd take that package over "elite speed" every day of the week. I am hoping TJ will eventually prove me wrong.

He doesn't bother me as much as he does some of you by anyone that talks that much is bound to say something less than stellar, much like Tim McCarver's baseball commentary. But I think that accusing Colston of having "alligator arms" on a throw deflected about two feet away from landing in his hands was pretty dumb. He'd have to be Flash for his hands to react that quickly to the change in direction.

It is IMPOSSIBLE to know what every camera angle will or won't show or how willing a referee will be to do some simple geometry i.e. knee at the goal line with upper body leading forward = ????? I personally can't say he was wrong in either case just that there wasn't a camera angle that showed he was conclusively right.

A winning streak that puts them in playoff contention.