JESSEFEFFER

Rework the list a little, maybe add Roosevelt, Davis and/or maybe Caulcrick and get rid of Woods and Levitre to get the number to 12 names. Then you have "The Dirty Dozen." If you know the premise of the movie, 12 condemned men offered a last chance to redeem themselves on a suicide mission, then it kind of fits their career status. This is the last and/or best chance for most of these guys to be relevant to the NFL.

A 4 and 12 season characterized by a new starting QB, a new head coach, with many losses in high scoring games where the offense failed in the clutch and had problems with TO's. Three of the games they did win were of the low scoring , Jauronesque type that we have come to know all too well. They averaged scoring just under 18 points/game and were dead last in the league in turnover differential. This was followed by a defensive heavy draft heading into an NFL season which was to be tainted by an interruption in league operations due to management/labor strife. Everything here describes both the 2010 and 1986 seasons. Many are inclined to deny the analogy and can't get beyond "Fitzpatrick is no Jim Kelly." It's as if it might casue them brain injury to consider the point. As I recall, he was baited by that punk Chris Collinsworth. I think Bruce got hit with a bogus face mask penalty on Esiason that was actually a grab of his collar which ended up extending a drive that resulted in points. Don't know where to go to confirm the latter.

Other predictions: 1) He will be the most popular training camp 7th round rookie ever. 2) The Bills will find special situations for him to justify a roster spot much like they did for Jason Peters. He is too big to hide on the practice squad. Anything he does well in a preseason game will stand out on film. 3) His small school, small town roots will endear him to Bills' fandom. 4) His underdog, out-of-nowhere story will play like Roy Hobb's and he may be an NFL version of a Greek myth. As Bill's fans we can only let the story write itself and hope he truly is a nose tackle "Natural."

I remember a video posted on the UBFan website from UB's Pro Day which was held at the fieldhouse. Jeff Quinn was talking to Chan about Davonte. "Four time 1st team, All Mac, only the 4th ever to do it, etc." Roosevelt was standing there and Chan said with a smile something to the effect of "if you have any more like him, I'd want them on my team." So, it could happen.

I liked him more at corner. He's not very tall and not really a middle of the field defender, IMO. I wonder how the Bills see it.

If they must spend cash to the cap, whether it's 99% or 90% or whatever, means that the money will get spent on someone. Who these players are is a matter of philosophy. I'd choose the Packers' and Steelers' over the Redskins'. The Ralph is cheap posts are clearly misguided. Time to learn a different tune.

I do not know about ESPN but I did hear him on the NFL Network. Maybe he was on both, I do not know. As for the NFL Network piece, the interviewer asked him three times in three different ways about what the sticking points were from the players perspective. He answered the question each time the same way. They hadn't seen the proposal yet. Had just been presented to the union like an hour prior to the interview. Said he did not know wwhy the media outlets were saying the players would be voting that day. It didn't come from them (maybe implying it came from the ownership side to put ther pressure of fan expectations on the players.) They had never worked with a timetable and did not have one now. He came off OK, in my book as I thought the interviewer was sub par.

He will be very popular at training camp. If he treats the fans there anything at like he did you, he will be even more popular. Part of it is his freakish size, part of it is his underdog story, part of it is his attitude. Mostly though, it's the thought that he could be a Roy Hobbs story. A guy from off the map, nowhere that may be a freakish athlete, naturally gifted to dominate.

A wait and see mindset is the right one or as I say "keep and open mind." The following numbers are Eli Mannings's first four years in the NFL. Year, starts and rating. He was neck and neck with JP Losman for much of this time. Being a #1, #1 pick probably bought him some extra time to get it. The light does come on for many QBs between their 30th and 50th starts. Let's hope that 2010 was the start of Fitzpatrick's emergence. It has happened where an NFL team got lucky and had a great QB come out of nowhere. The Bills are overdue for some luck. 2004.......... 7 ..... 55.4 2005.......... 16 ..... 75.9 2006.......... 16 ..... 77.0 2007.......... 16 ..... 73.9* * The Giants Super Bowl year.

Let's say for the sake of argument that a "pressure situation involves" an unblocked defender in the backfield that casues the QB to either move, hold the ball, run the ball, throw the ball early or take a sack. In this analysis by Khaled Elsayed I see the following: No attempt to quantify a successful QB run as a "good" response to pressure. No scale of how quick the pressure came. Was it early or late? Did it kill the play or did the QB have time to survey the field, let the patterns develop and identify the coverage breakdowns before the pressure came? Was the pressure from one defender or two? Or more? It is tough to escape from multiple, would be pass rushers. How much time and space did the QB have to recognize the protection breakdown. The center whiffs on a block and the QB has time to react to it. A running back misses a blitz pickup occurs within two steps away from him. All "pressure" is not created equal. Getting rid of the ball and not taking a sack is often a good play. Avoiding it and running for a first down is even better. This ranking is not comprehensive.

Would any here deny the following?: "All pressure is not created equal. Quick pressure @ 2.5 seconds (a whiffed block) is not the same as pressure that occurs @ 5 seconds. The first is a play killer where an incompletion or a scramble and run would be a good play. The second is an opportunity in that the play has developed, the QB has had time to survey the field, and the coverage has had a chance to breakdown." If you agree with that then would you also conclude that any attempt at assessing pressure that ignores when it occurred is flawed? Fitzpatrick was hit 80+ times. That's among the highest in the league. That's 80 attempts with a defender hitting him as he was throwing or with a defender one step away. That's over six times a game. A guy like Eli Manning was hit a little over 3 times a game. What would this tend to do to a QB's passer rating?

Taking a DB this high in the draft is much like opening that really pretty package at Christmas and having it filled with socks and underwear. You know that the other packages will be more fun and these items are truly needed so it would be really unwise to complain about it. On the other hand, when you are running late for work, it is really a nice feeling to pull your dresser drawer open and have some nice, never worn, perfectly clean undergarments to put on. In football reality, secondary guys get hurt all the time, especially when you're becoming road kill drying to defend the run. Many times teams have 5 or 6 DB's in the game and a good offense will find your weak link and exploit it. That's why taking a DB high in the draft is a good idea most every year.

It's semantics really. Judging the spectrum of worst to best based on one year is premature. Judging it based on "first year impact" of the class is more in line with what is being done here. In that case, I can't disagree that the Bill's 2010 draft was low impact in a situation where the opportunity was there to have a high impact.

Fitzpatrick's 2010 numbers are better than Jay Cutler's 2010 season and VERY similar to Eli Manning's average for the last 4 seasons. Are these two "franchise" caliber, in your opinion? They were drafted in the 1st round, they have big contracts, and Eli managed to lead his team to a Super Bowl win. Just wondering because some would say yes and others would not. If you look at Manning's game by game numbers you'll see them bounce around also. Part of that is the reality of playing outdoors in the northeast during November and December. With regard to Fitz, the late season decline you cite is heavily the result of the Minnesota and New England games. The other seven were not that bad. As a matter of fact, the Bills were the Lindell missed OT field goal and the SJ OT drop from winning six of the seven. Were the 2010 Bills capable of having a 6 and 3 stretch with substandard QB play? I say no.

My distaste for a QB at 3 is that the pick and the money associated with makes it necessary to play him before he is ready. It also means that a team woulfd have to invest 30+ starts to see if he's gonna "get it." Vince Young is talented, has won some in the NFL, will be much cheaper and may have learned something from his failure. He will be in a situation where he would have to be clearly better than Fitz to move him to the bench. If his head is in the right place, then I like this better than any QB this year at #3.

And Willie Totten. Kinda, sorta.

The 2011 equivalent of Rob Johnson's deal. That deal was based on one game. This would be based on 13.

It took Drew Brees ~30 career starts before he became DREW BREES! He was so good early on that the Chargers drafted Manning and then traded him for Rivers.

In my glass is half full thinking, SJ dropping that catch may have produced some nice outcomes for the team. Gailey had come out with the "humble vs. humbled" line in the Bengals post game when asked about the "Why so serious?" antics. He use it again in the Steelers post game. A subtle "I told you so" moment. It gave Fitz a chance to be a leader by not "throwing a teammate under the bus." Think about what Fitz is trying to do. Make the best of what may be his best and only shot to be a franchise QB. Beating the Steelers would have helped that cause. And, best of all, maybe SJ will be better for it.

If you are in the NFL = "Not For Long" crowd, you will never recoup what you will lose from missing even half of a season no matter what the differences are between the negotiating teams or what the eventual settlement is.

When you subtract out the pathetic game 1, 2 and 16 offensive showings, the Fitz lead offense managed a 42% conversion rate and 5.7 ypp. Both are numbers that are worthy of the top 10. That 2010 run defense was "bad at the first snap" unlike in 2009 when it did wear down and collapse more often late in games.

The Ryan Fitzpatrick we saw last year was not good enough to win in post season. He had a record of failure in crucial situations late in games that followed a familiar pattern. Tight game, 4th quarter, drives the team to the other side of the 50 but just outside field goal range. Deep throws are just off the mark (or dropped or fumbled) and the one critical first down never comes. This was NE1, Bal, KC, Chi, Pitt that I remember. This is also how I remember the late game failures of Jim Kelly's 1986 season so this trend of failure does not have to be career defining. The Ryan Fitzpatrcik of 2011 will get every advantage to be better. If a commitment is made to overhaul the defense then he could really shine. He has the smarts to learn from his mistakes and a pressure beating package of quick read and quick release to mask the protection problems he has faced and still allow the offense to function. He has reached the point in his career when many other QB's have had their careers take off and 2010 may have been the first sign of it happening for him. When this question is asked next year there will much more evidence with which to derive an answer.

Then some QB in the 2012 draft gets a pile of money. Or some QB that they get in this year's draft gets to compete for the job. I personally feel that Vince Young would be a good pickup. He's talented, has performed well when on the field, and maybe he can thrive under a QB freindly HC. As soon as you take a QB at the top of the draft it's like the Bills are married to the guy. Saying that you'll play Fitz for a year or two would be like dating someone other than to whom you are engaged. Makes no sense to me. I want Fitz to be plan A for the 2011 season and see if he elevates his game. Having a plan B or even A1 is ok with me too. As long as their is a legit competition for the job.

Hopefully this rookie QB of the future wasn't taken at #3 because this will demand that said rookie QB plays 1) plays before he has earned the job and 2) gets more starts than the quality of his play justifies. And if he can't take the heat from the fans or the media for the boatload of losses coming their way, and feels the need to call out his teammates for their mistakes, we can patiently wait for him to mature into a leader that has the trust of the entire team. Let Fitz's 2011 season answer the question about where his ceiling is, say I.

Those who think that taking a QB that high in the draft guarantees a path to turning the franchise around are delusional. It sets the team up for a 3 or 4 year experiment hoping that he will justify the pick. If he busts he drags the whole team down with him until he is replaced. If the Bills aren't convinced that there is a QB worth rolling the dice on, I say let Fitz have his year to see if he can take his game to a higher level. There is much less risk in that and the reward may prove to be as great.