JESSEFEFFER

Neither championship game was a template for the importance of elite QB play.......... Sanchez 20 of 33 for 233, 2TDs and a passer rating of 102.2 Roethlisberger 10 of 19 for 133, O TDs and 2 pics for a passer rating of 35.5 Rodgers 17 of 30 for 244, 0 TDs and 2 pics for a passer rating of 55.4 Cutler left the game with a knee injury .....but let's not let the actual facts get in the way of believing what we want to. Just saying.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was objectively better than Sanchez and Cutler last year (two of the "final four" QBs.) This is without much help from the defense, playing behind one of the most inexperienced offensive lines (being pressured on over 20% of dropbacks,) and not having had the benefit of the majority of training camp reps. He obviously had problems in cruchtime, ala Jim Kelly in 1986, but I, for one, think he will be even better in 2011.

I've been wanting to look into him more. He's rather intriguing. One impression I had was that he looked skinny but then at the combine he looked more solid. The school shouldn't really matter. If Delaware, Alcorn State, Marshall, and Miami of Ohio can produce first rounders then Nevada shouldn't be what "devalues" him.

1987 Bills trade down with Houston from #3 to #8 and get Conlan. The Oilers take Highsmith and the Bills get Odomes in the 2nd with their extra pick. This kind of trade always make sense if you have any faith in your ability to put a draft board together. The money has gotten so big at the top of the draft that teams are unwilling to trade up for the right to pay some college kid 40+ million. Maybe a realistic rookie wage scale can change that. Polian also traded for Bennett later because he would not sign with the Colts. It was the 3 way deal with the Rams that involved Eric Dickerson, Greg Bell and some draftpicks being exchanged. Mckellar, Ballard, Seals and Leonard Smith (Brandon trade) were acquired from this years' draft assets. Great draft for the Bills and it started with a move down trade.

I could easily make the case that Fitzpatrick had a similar year to that of Eli Manning and a better one than Jay Cutler. Some consider those guys to be franchise types. They are certainly paid that way. It's tough to know how much better he can be since my crystal ball is not working lately, but players do get better as they spend time in an offensive system along with their teammates. There are many examples of QBs whose careers took off after 30 to 50 starts and 4 or 5 years in the league. I am willing to wait and see if Fitzpatrick can have that kind of career evolution. He has the leadership skills, toughness, maturity, and smarts to do the job. He just has to make the offense more productive. That all that being said, I do think that he had a good enough season to be a legitimate plan A but that having a realistic plan B would also be prudent. The fact that Brohm was not tendered tells me the Bills may be thinking that way but this does not equate to a top of the draft pick. Those guys have to play before they earn the job because they "need to develop" and the franchise has to "find out about them." The QB's at the top of the 1st round become plan A from day one and it more often leads to 3 years of futile, and often ugly, football.

In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such: Chad Pennington Mike Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman Eli Manning Philip Rivers Ben Roethlisberger J.P. Losman Alex Smith Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell Vince Young Matt Leinart Jay Cutler JaMarcus Russell Brady Quinn Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Matt Stafford Mark Sanchez Josh Freeman Sam Bradford Tim Tebow Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow....... Not sure what your working definition of "franchise" might be but I am not so sure that Sanchez, Bradford, or Stafford have shown enough to know which path their careers will take. They were drafted high, got paid a ton of money, and will start when healthy. The same was true of Carr, Harrington, Boller, Leftwich, et. al.

Of your list, it can be easily shown that Fitzpatrick had a better year than Cutler, Sanchez, and Bradford. His quality of play was very similar to Eli Manning. All this is said without really looking at the quality of the supporting cast that any of these guys works with. Ryan took a big step forward last year and there are many historical examples of QBs that made such an improvement to their game at similar points in their careers. I am not willing to say what a player's limit is nor would I choose to use a word like "never." For those that think, speak and write that way about the future, I say good luck with that because history tends to make you look foolish.

Selected 24th overall, Rodgers does not apply to my comment. "In August 2005 at age 21, Rodgers agreed to a reported five-year, $7.7 million deal that included $5.4 million in guaranteed money and had the potential to pay him as much as $24.5 million if all incentives and escalators were met." He was cheap enough to be patient with. Rivers is more applicable. He was taken at #4 and he did sit two years. Flutie/Johnson is very applicable. The flawed veteran that can lead the team vs. the younger, unproven, higher paid QB with supposed upside. Why was Flutie benched against the Titans? The pressure to play the higher paid guy will eventually trump any need to play the guy that gives a team the best chance to win. So much so that it will usually happen before they are ready.

Regardless of what Fitz is now or what he can or will become in the future, he has a shot in 2011 to define the course of his career. In the history of the NFL there have been many QBs that became decent to great at his current experience level. We might have been witnessing his career light coming on in 2010. Or maybe his ceiling is being just a competent caretaker, as some suggest. I don't claim to know either with certainty so I say it would be wise to keep an open mind. I do know this. If a QB is taken at 3, the economics dictate that they start long before they are ready. Laugh at Flutie/Johnson but a replay is likely. It's Ground Hog's Day all over again. Guys that get 40+ million guaranteed don't sit the bench while they learn. They learn on the job and the play of their teammates suffers as a result. They won't be too patient while waiting for some young QB to put their game together and learn to be a leader. If he proves to be unworthy of his high draft status, that's another 3 years down the drain. Fitz was hit or sacked about 9 times per game. His combination of presnap reads, protection calls, and quick decisions/ releases gave the offense a chance to move the chains. Taking as few sacks as he did was not an accident. It was a deliberate adjustment to his game. He'd do whatever he could to get rid of the ball and avoid a loss. An intentional grounding call is just a spot foul and loss of down (sounds like a sack to me) so why not just get rid of it and see if the referee will allow it? If Fitzpatrick had taken 7 more sacks instead, his comp% hits 60. He was about 10 to 20 sacks short of what would be normal given the number of hits he took. Trading incompletions for sacks HURTS a QB's passer rating (lower comp% and YPA.) There is nothing in the formula that rewards a QB for avoiding sacks. The same is true for getting the ball past the sticks on 3rd and long. It's a lower percentage play but the chances of actually converting it are better. There is not a reward in the passer rating formula for being a risk taker on 3rd and long. As Bills fans we have seen our share of ball holding, afraid to pull the trigger, run out of bounds for a 4 yard loss, dump it off to a stationery receiver on 3rd and long, QB play. I, for one, was sick of it. Fitz played a style of game that made his o-line and receivers look good, certainly not bottom-of-the-barrel as we were lead to believe before season. It's a style that helped his team but hurt his rating. There were two areas of his game that were clearly deficient, IMO. Fumbles on running plays (get the yards but always protect the ball!) and in that 20 yard dead zone that exists between midfield and the high% field goal range. Fitz lead many important, late game drives, that died in this area. It happened so often that I would call it a trend. It's those failures that give his detractors their best ammunition.

If a running back's role in the offense is just carrying the ball, then, yes there are a multitude of guys that can do that and average 4 yards a carry. To consistently produce explosive 50+ yard plays takes a special talent and that's what the Bills thought they were getting. Time will tell, but I beleive that Chan Gailey has plans for Spiller and we barely got a glimpse of them in 2010.

The completion % is the last thing I'd look at. It's affected by parameters that are not the same from team to team, the two biggest being weather and protection. Peyton Manning has the BEST circumstances of these two factors. Would anyone not concede that Fitzpatrick dealt with one of the worst combinations of these two factors? Fitzpatrick was good at avoiding sacks and making 3rd and long conversions both of which hurt completion %. He demonstrated a package of skills that allowed him to deal with and often beat pressure. I think it is the single most important skillset for a QB to have and QB passer rating does not properly quantify it. Failing to deal with pressure will chase QBs from the NFL (Culpepper, Bledsoe, Losman, Edwards, George, Everett, etc.) while beating it will define success and is my best definition of "it." It's a package of arm, feet, brains, and recognition/reaction that allows a QB to best utilize the time and space he has available. I think Fitzpatrick showed that he has an effective combination of these skills and abilities which means he can get better. He is QB passer rating plus.

This hidden part of the game has always intrigued me. The HC knows the play call and if was changed. He knows if a breakdown occurred and who was respoonsible. If a receiver ran the wrong route, missed a sight adjust, or if a protection failure was overcome. I suspect that Fitz has been good at avoiding disaster in the face of multiple breakdowns, made quick reads and gotten rid of the ball to avoid sacks. In short Chan would know every obstacle that was presented and how Fitz handled it. These post game film sessions and the conclusions the coaching staff draws from them are pivotal to building a team but as fans we are lagely ignorant of them. I think that Gailey was honest about Brohm's play. He wasn't errant or careless with the ball nor was unaware of what the plays required. The speed of the game was a couple beats too fast for him and those disastrous plays are the result.

There is much riding on the next 3 for most of the roster. They have many guys that barely have a foot in the NFL door. Be a high draft pick and get big money and you will stick around (McCargo, McKelvin) without justifying it on the field. As a free agent or low draft pick you have something to prove everytime you step on the field. Fitz is the epitome of that. So the OP is a legit question. Some looking at the normal QB stats are saying that Fitz's play has slipped over the last 7. I say this: The Bills are a Lindell missed 2nd kick and a Steve Johnson dropped TD away from being 5 and 2 in their last 7. I do not think this is a team that could be within a sniff of 5 and 2 if the QB play was substandard. Some of the quantifiable things that passer rating does not account for that most all football fans would affirm as important to QB play are avoiding sacks and fumbles, converting 3rd downs, being efficient in the redzone, running ability, and taking hits without letting their play suffer. It could be demonstrated that Fitz is a plus in all these areas making him everything his passer rating says he is and more. He is PASSER RATING PLUS. In these last three games he has a chance to give further evidence of this. If he out plays Henne and Sanchez and thereby denying their teams a playoff spot, we would all take notice. If he stands toe to toe with Brady in a game that means something to the Pats (maybe for the #1 AFC seed)and sent the Hoodie to a post game press conference having to explain why his team lost to the Bills in such an important game, the entire NFL would take notice. In short, be the difference, lead the team, and make a statement about this team's relevence to 2011.

In terms of the breakdown of the incomplete throws there are some other categories hidden in the "bad throw" group. "Receiver runs wrong route," " QB makes a throw to avoid a sack," "QB makes a throw to stop the clock" (maybe this is the category "other") QB rating does little to reward the 3rd and long comnversion rate. Trent's strategy of throwing short, completing the pass or maybe taking a sack on third and long is much more QB passer rating friendly. Taking a chance and throwing the ball 17 yards down the field on 3rd and 15 is not good for the completion%.

In Fred's case, having broken a bone in his hand in August would have something to do with it. I broke my 4th metacarpal in June and, after having it in a cast for 6 weeks, that hand was mostly useless for another month afterward.

Here's what I posted to start a thread "Keep an Open Mind": Lot's of people wanting to say that Ryan Fitzpatrick is or isn't worthy of being the Bills" #1 QB going forward. I cite the following: 1) Quick decisions & quick release = very tough to sack. 2) Stands up in the face of pressure and delivers accurate throws-downfield. I'd like to see the numbers on this but when a pass rusher is coming in unblocked he does not wilt. He's got guts and can take a hit. HE CAN BEAT PRESSURE!!! 3) While he has a few flyers-he very rarely has a misread. Wunderlick score aside, he obviously has a clue. 4) While they haven't won much with him, the losses are looking alot like those they had in 1986, if you catch my point. 5) The offensive line and receivers were supposed to be bottom of barrel. Well they don't look like it with him playing. Raising the level of play of one's teammates is the primary sign of a great player, in my way of thinking. 6) He can make plays in the "other" category. A scramble and a dive for a first down or a key block when a back reverses field. I am waiting for him to closeline a defender after a pick or fumble recovery. I think he'd deliver a blow. He is a football player. I think the Bills could win 3 or 4 of their last 7 and go into next year looking like an organization that has an idea. Having a smart, tough, quick thinking, gunslinging, humble, team first and calm under pressure QB to lead them isn't so bad. All this says in my mind that as fans we should let this play out and not let Fitzpatrick's draft round or college team cloud our judgement. Keep an open mind and let his play speak for itself. It's been so long since we have seen consistently productive QB play that it seems many of us have forgotten what it looks like. I think Chan knows it when he sees it. Fitzpatrick is only 14 months older than Kelly was that 1986 season so there is tread left on those tires. Two USFL seasons and Ryan's 5 years in the league are roughly equivalent in experience although Ryan has never gone through a preseason as "the man." So I agree with the analogy (it's an optimistic one) but it most directly applies to the QB, coach and offense. Hopefully the rest of the pieces fall in line.

I wonder if Stevie had a TD celebration planned for today's game. If so, I wonder if he was thinking about his celebration while the ball was coming to his hands. Regardless, Chan has mentioned the humble/humbled line twice in two weeks. Both times it was directed to the play of Steve Johnson. The first in reponse to the "Why so serious?" celebration and the second in regards to his 5 or 6 drop day. The first I took as a warning the second as a "I tried to warn you" admonishment. I get the impression that Gailey is using the adversity that comes with the failure in these close games to teach these guys how to be pros. They may learn faster under these circumstances because the lessons are more painful.

It may have been high or maybe Stevie was supposed to take two more steps up field before the break but cheated his route and blew the timing. We don't know these things for sure. The whole accuracy issue is bogus in my book. Trent was constantly throwing sideways to stationery targets and people were convinced he was poised and accurate. Now we are watching a QB throw the ball down the field to moving targets with plenty of YAC potential but requiring precise timing between QB and receiver. It's football worth watching.

Any rookie quarterback or even just a young inexperieced one playing on this team and we would still be talking about how bad the o-line and receivers were. The national guys would be saying how the rookie "didn't have a chance" and that Buffalo was not a good situation to develop a guy. Fitz can beat pressure, get the ball out quickly and still get it down field. He is optimizing time and space. This is a rare,conversation changing skill, IMO. If this is true I think we see two or three more wins. The Steelers would be a good one to get.

Maybe the time out was arranged prior to the snap. "Hey Ed, if we don't get in we want a time out." That would predispose him toward a quick whistle (the whole it's when I thought about blowing it dead not when anyone actually heard it) and then an instantaneous timeout. Must say I was very angry about the call. Might have been in too much of a rant for my wife's and mother's comfort.

The Steelers represent a huge opportunity for the team and Fitzpatrick. Beating that team would not go unnoticed. Lots of Steeler fans down here in the Southern Tier and at my workplace. Shutting them up would be sweet.

Could have easily been talking about the declining Dallas Cowboys he coached in his first go round. That could not have been an easy group to coach. Maybe the worst. Aging superstars with big bank accounts whose best football was behind them and played under the direction of other coaches.

A fair question. I think that in the NFL that if there is a quarterback ahead of you on the roster that has been drafted and/or paid to be "the Man" then your options are limited. He was traded to one team and chose another. As a free agent he must have had other options. As smart as he is, it's not surprising he'd look around and identify the best opportunity. Not surprising he'd pick the Bills-it was a wise choice.

Finishing strong would legitimize this coaching staff. That would be huge. A win against any playoff contender in a meaningful game especially if it were the Jets or Pats would be a shot across the bow for next year. This would be a way bigger boost to the men in the locker room than a few spots in the draft order. Git 'er done Fitz.

This is getting interesting. Yes I can compare his play this year to Kelly's in 1986. Their losses are very similar. Just like I can compare their ages (soon to be 28 for Fitz while Kelly was comparably 14 1/2 months younger. I hold this as an example to refute those convinced the late game failures are evidence of what his future production is to be like. As far as the "immeasurables", he has some going on. I'll start with 99th percentile smart, gutsy, and having the support of the team (he even passed the T.O. test-not easy to do.) He also has no problem standing up and owning his mistakes. Something you'll recall Jim Kelly having a big problem with early in his career. Oops! I just contrasted Fitzpatrick to Kelly. Am I allowed to do that without having my football intelligence questioned?