Thurman#1

If it was where he started, it certainly wasn't what he said. I wouldn't have disagreed if that had been what he said. In fact, I've long since agreed with that part of it. He went on about how it was completely unrealistic that any team would offer so much He's said, among other things, "I believe that they can’t trade 2021 still," and he said that after I'd first posted the Rosenthal quote. And this, "Who else can offer anything like that? I was thinking about putting this is a new thread but can anyone design a trade for another team to get to 2 that beats that offer using the Rich Hill hill chart? Who else can pay the 146.51 points that the Bills would give with 12, 22, 53, 65 and a 2nd next year?" And the answer to that of course is any team hot enough on one of these QBs that they want to add in high picks in future years. Kirby was quite correct when he said that this year we have much more than anyone. And certainly that's an advantage. But he went beyond saying that, insisting that if a kind of trade had never happened before it was unrealistic. But values given in trades increase year by year, especially for QBs among the first few picks. If that's what it costs, I'd certainly do it. IMHO, might even be more.

Agreed. With the proviso that something that might be unreasonable another year would be quite reasonable this year when you have a lot of picks and a lot of good QBs in the draft. He might have to spend more than we would like. He should still do it. There should be a limit. The limit should be quite a bit higher than most here think. As for the OP, I don't think he has goals for this year. I think his goals are long-term, that that's what the process means. You consistently work as hard as you can towards the long-term goals, understanding there'll be bumps, bruises, regressions, advances, disappointment and achievement. You don't worry about any of them too much. You just keep advancing towards those goals..

Just about to suggest that. He was a really good player.

I suppose there would be a few buttheads in the media. But most of them are smart enough to give time. Plenty of idiot fans would go crazy, maybe. Not most, but plenty. And all of that means .... absolutely nothing. Yeah, some buttheads would call for the new guy. Who cares? Most people get it. Things take time. You seem to assume that the minute the fans start yelling that McD is going to give in and put the guy on the field even if it's not in his best interest. There is absolutely zero reason to think so. McD has done exactly what he wants to do when he wants to do it. He has not worried about fan opinion. He has done what he thinks is best for the football team. Expect him to continue to do so. The last thing in the world that you want to do ... further back than raising botflies in your bedroom ... further back than staring at the sun for the whole length of an eclipse ... further back than mortgaging your house to buy scratch-off tickets ... further back than having sex when you're in a horror movie and then going outside alone ... further back than all those things is making decisions because some fans may get upset in the short term. No, man. This would be the opposite of a football stupid move. There are a few, but they're outweighed by the good reasons to do it.

Thanks, Bill. Yeah, I can't find anything that contradicts that. So teams could give up 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 picks, once the draft has started. And seeing how many FA deals were already completed before the FA period started, they could easily do deals with 2021 picks before the draft started and have them only become official when the draft started.

It "is maybe precise, but is highly inaccurate"? And what does your headline mean? From what I can figure you're supporting trading up, correct? I'm with you there. Hope they can get to #2, and I don't mind giving up an awful lot if they get a guy they really like.

No reason to think that the QB has to be ready to dominate right away. Just doesn't make sense. You get a QB in hopes he's good for 15 years. The first year is one when he's going to be learning. Was it a bad move to draft Peyton Manning? He wasn't very good the first year. Goff didnt exactly dominate his first year and neither did Wentz. Were they bad picks. Again, no reason to think they are going to insist on that. Having McCarron could well allow them to bench the guy for a year and give him a shot at figuring out the league and filling in his weaknesses. As for weaknesses, the OL has problems. The LBs too. QB, honestly. WR. How good will Zay Jones be this year? Who'll be the #3 or the slot? The DL looks acceptable now but Lotulelei is a bit of a question mark. Will he play great the way he started out or a bit flat as he has recently. How will Kyle's age affect him? How much of a pass rush are we likely to have? Too early to say right now, especially before the draft, but we'll have some holes. They seem to be headed in the right direction, though. Also seem to be the smartest FO we've had in a very long time.

Well, that's one guess. But there's no evidence of any kind whatsoever that says that you're correctly understanding what they mean by the process. And it's nonsense to put the responsibility for that much on one player. You can bet the brain trust won't do that. Wins and losses are team stats. If they do draft a QB there'll be no "forcing." If there's one thing that's not part of the process, "forcing" something to do something it can't do would be an excellent example. There's a very decent chance that even if we trade up we'll be seeing McCarron for a year or so. They've made it as clear as can be that their goal is long-term, to build a team that consistently is in play for titles. Another thing you don't do in the "process" is sabotage your long-term goals for short-term gain.

Bills moving up for Rosen would be one of the moves best calculated for long-term success. There are no guarantees, but they'd have a good chance of looking very very smart.

Yeah, no other team has 2 1sts. But if any of them are convinced that the next elite QB is there, they all have four first rounders to trade, their 1sts in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021. You can trade your 2021 picks after the draft has begun according to the rules, but considering how many FA contracts were made before the FA period started, deals could be made right now to become official later. I hope they can get the #2 for just this year's picks. But it's far from a sure thing. If somebody is desperate, anything could happen.

Here's one way that you absolutely DON'T make a decision on a QB. You DON'T say, "He's not so certain to make a difference this year that we won't ..." You just don't. What he does this year is of little consequence. It'd be great if he (whoever he is) plays terrific this year but if he instead sits for a year but is terrific three years on, that's a win and a huge one.

Yeah, everybody knows there's a huge difference between #12 and #13. It's not just a matter of luck acting on a fairly small sample. No, couldn't be that. In any case, Super Bowl winner Joe Flacco says hi. He hasn't been a very good QB over the course of his career, but winning a Lombardi makes him a success as a pick. Oh, and Chad Pennington was a sensational pick. One of the top two or so in the league at one point until his shoulder injury destroyed his arm strength.

You may be right that they can't trade 2021. But did you see my post above about that? To repeat: Again, I'm not 100% convinced you can trade three years ahead, but it looks true, most likely. Unless there's been a change in the rules since 2015. And yeah, they'd be paying a large premium if they just give all our picks in the first three rounds this year. But massive is a real overstatement. Giving all six picks for the #2 would be giving 3071 points for 2600. That's an 18% premium, hardly massive. In comparison, the Jets gave up about 20.5% in their trade. In the case of the bidding war that seems very possible at this point, there's a good chance it won't be enough. No way to be sure of that, of course. But again, if Elway thinks Rosen is the next Peyton, he'd be smart to give up the first three picks this year and start bidding up towards giving up the 1sts from 2019, 2020 and 2021 besides. "They can certainly get it done (if the Giants are willing to move)," you say? No, that's very far from a certainty.

Assuming I'm correct above in finding that after the draft begins teams can trade three years into the future, not two, Denver could theoretically go: 2018: 5, 40, 71 2019: 1st 2020: 1st 2021: 1st And no, they're not likely to do this, but assume that Elway quietly believes that Rosen is the next Peyton, or that Mayfield is the next Brees or that Allen is the next Rodgers. In that case, you can bet he'll be extremely competitive in trying to bid up nearly any offer Buffalo makes. Again, likely not to be as easy as many on here are hoping, even if the Giants are committed to trading, which doesn't seem certain.

Yeah, their options are wide open.

Diaper emergency faced and handled. About how far ahead draft picks can be traded, seems that before the draft you can only trade two years in advance but once the draft has started, you can go three years. So once the draft has started, a team with only one first rounder per year could trade the 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 first rounders. "According the the league office, trades conducted before the draft begins can include draft picks in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Once the draft starts (i.e., the moment the Commissioner declares the draft to be open and places the team with the first pick on the clock), trades can include picks from 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018." (NOTE: this article was written before the 2015 draft) http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/03/04/eagles-can-trade-picks-into-2018-draft-once-the-2015-draft-opens/ Couldn't find more. If anyone can show me more, I'd be very willing to learn.

Ah, the diaper is calling, or rather the 2year old. Yeah, other teams would put themselves in tough situations. Agreed. They might be willing to do that. Dunno. If my team did that, I'd like to see them then try to trade down the next year, moving a 2nd and a 5th for a 1st and trying to get value back. Then maybe move the 1st down for another one. This is not likely to be easypeasy. Teams could fight it out.

Yeah, this. It's a very fluid situation. I doubt the Broncos do that, but you never really know. Have to go change a diaper.

Well, yeah, if the Bills throw in all their picks for the next three years, nobody can beat them. Agreed. But the question was asked above, whether there was anyone else who could beat what the Bills have this year. And I answered that. Lots of teams can beat that. The Bills could easily have to throw in all of that and then have to start using more if teams are willing to make this competitive. Which could happen. I don't know if it will, but it could. An awful lot is up for grabs here.

Perhaps I phrased that badly. I'll try again. Did any team ever offer so much for such a small outcome as going up three places? RGIII was close, going from #6 to #2 Of course I know teams have traded larger totals. Look at the Ricky Williams trade. The Herschel Walker trade. Point I was poorly trying to make is that you don't have to shy away from digging into the picks from future years. Not if there's a QB you really want.

Very interesting. Thank you. But you overstate what we've learned. The Cards can offer the 2018, 2019 and 2020 firsts and all three 2nds as well. I take that over the Bills offer. The point is, this isn't a gimme. It's not like, well, the Bills already have this in hand. They have a big advantage. But not an advantage that's impregnable. Teams could also offer players, of course, including some very good ones.

Great, you've established that among things that have never happened before, there are some situations are realistic and others aren't. Nice. Did any team make a deal like the Jets did? Was that realistic?

It is realistic, Kirby. Just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it won't happen now. If a team wants it bad enough, they could do something like that. Not saying it will happen. But it could. You can't rule it out. Did anyone think the Jets would make that kind of an offer with so many future picks? If I were the Bills bidding against the Cards, and the situations were reversed, I wouldn't mind a bit if the Bills made that kind of an offer. They'd better be right about the guy, of course.

Nearly any team can beat that, or do a hell of a job trying. If you're the Giants do you take that offer from the Bills, or the 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 first rounders from some team? I take the firsts.

Yup, I would. Might be more as there may be a sort of an auction between several teams.