Thurman#1

Stretched parameters? That's nonsense. I mean, like pig manure type of nonsense. Utter and complete. In fact, "The parameters used to draw comparisons between the passing game weapons the Bills currently possess and those that the Chiefs took into 2023 are" extremely damn reasonable. Can every team make a similar claim? No. Pretty much every team has a WR room every bit as good as the Chiefs did. Or better. They were a functional group with some rookies and very young guys who had a chance to develop and show out but hadn't done so yet. Most teams, nearly every team, can match that WR room without any stretch whatsoever. Not every team has a Kelce, even an aging one likely to take a significant decline. Not every team does. But we have Kincaid and he shows very likely to be that good. You say, "I mean in 2022 MVS literally had more receiving yards than any of Kincaid, Shakir or Samuel did last season," is obviously spin, and not particularly good spin. It's tne same weak sauce so many have tried. Curtis Samuel has had four years when he was better than that year for MVS or about as good (627, 851, 656 and 613 compared to MVS's 2022 687). Samuel's best year in receiving yards was significantly better than MVS's best, 815 to 690. Yeah, it's true that that year from MVS he was more productive than all three of Kincaid, Shakir or Samuel. That's true. MVS had 687, Shakir had 611 and Samuel's best year is significantly better than MVS's, better by more than MVS's 2022 season you're referring to was better than Kincaid's and Shakir's last season. I can't blame you for the immensely weak arguments you're using here. They're all that's available for people making the dumb argument you're trying to make. That's the problem you have, you're making a dumb argument. It's not your fault there's such little and weak factual evidence to support that dumb argument. What's dumb is looking at that utter lack of genuinely strong arguments and still trying to make the case. As for Kelce, yeah, his 2022 season was damn good, but he'd turned 33 during that season, and was set to turn 34 the next. He absolutely looked like he was due for a regression. His last seven games that season he was significantly less productive. Project his production from the first ten games of '22 into a whole season and you get a fantastic looking season. 855 yards and 11 TDs in ten games which extrapolates into a 17 game season of 1453 yards and 18.7 TDs. Insane. But ... in the last seven games his production, 483 yards and 1 touchdown in seven games (and that one came in game 11, none after that) projects out to 60.8 yards and 0.14 TDs per game and over a full season would have amounted to 1173 yards and 2.4 touchdowns. That's still good, but it's a major regression. And they hadn't cut his snap percentage or anything. He just watched his production take a major drop. Not to mention he'd be a year older the next year. Again, first ten games extrapolated to a 1453 yard, 18.7 TD season, while the last seven games calculates out to 1173 yards and 24 TDs. His decline had already begun, and it would accelerate. Still a good player even at that lower level, but he absolutely looked like they were going to start using him less in 2023 and that his age 34 season was probably going to show even more downside. This was anything but unpredictable. Our pre-season weapons compare very well with the out look for KC's 2023 preseason. Yeah, they had Pat Mahomes. But we have Josh Allen.

What you've got there are guys who are far too expensive for us or guys whose teams will not give them up (Jameson Williams? Really? You're better than this.) Funny, that's what all the other threads suggested too. Believe it or not, people have thought of re-working Josh's contract before. The Bills do not want to do that, because it turns their foreseeable future into more and more and more cap frustration, every season into a new one like this year. Dig in, bear the pain this year and watch the team be in reasonable cap shape going forward. There are guys we can get. But they are likely to be the types you folks don't want. They'll be affordable, available and realistic ... they're not going to set imaginations on fire.

Absolutely not. Not even a question. Yup. Nuts, hunh?

Couldn't or wouldn't or didn't? And no, we really won't know that. We'll have some more info that could help us make better more educated attempts at understanding, but there'll likely still be a ton of unclarity still left. If he does really well this year, it could mean that he was dogging it for us. Or that the new OC didn't use him as well. Or that Allen wasn't throwing to him .... it'll only mean that he does well this year despite not doing so well the year before. This happens plenty in the NFL.

That's certainly within the range of reasonable possibility. Anywhere between probably 450 to 1050 yards are reasonable guesses at this point. Too early to know how they'll use him, how much he'll improve as the season proceeds, how many targets he'll get ... or too much of anything, really. My guess i he doesn't reach Rice's numbers but isn't all that far behind, myself. Hang on to your hat for this shocking prediction as well, I guess he starts somewhat slowly and improves as the season goes along. Nuts, I know, right?

Fair look at Keon, IMO. Seems reasonable to me to guess that he'll produce even this year, but not at the level many hope. I agree he might take a while, but I'm still very hopeful.

Nah, this is not true. Was he playing as well as he had? Probably not. Was he still scaring teams, consistently drawing doubles and pulling safeties over to his side? Yeah, he was. A lot of this seems to have been the route combos, when Josh threw to him, etc. How he was fitting in. You watch. He's going to run up a ton of yards this year in Houston.

Another decade or so. They'll hate on it. But it's not in play. It's silly. The only people pushing it are a few nuts and fruitcakes here in this fanbase.

Not impossible, not at all. I doubt it, myself. We'll see. It just seems to me to be an endless loop on these boards. The Bills draft Singletary in the 3rd. He's a good RB, not elite but quite good. Fans here moan, correctly, about how he hasn't got breakaway speed and he's not a pounder. They want someone new. The third round guy doesn't play like a 1st round guy. Fans need someone else. We draft Moss in the 3rd. He's a pounder (until he isn't). Fans aren't happy, and here they've got really good reason, IMO. He's not performing like a 1st rounder. Hell, he didn't perform like a 3rd rounder here, even though he's now doing so. We draft Cook in the 2nd. He's got breakaway speed. He's 4th in the league in production from scrimmage. It's still not enough. We draft Davis in the 4th. We haven't seen him yet, so now he's expected to perform not like a 4th rounder, but like a 1st rounder, expected to beat out Cook and to not have faults in his game. We shouldn't draft an RB in the 1st, generally speaking. It's rarely a good efficient use of resources. And yet when we do the smart thing and draft backs a bit further down, we then expect first round, near-elite performance. And recycle again.

Are we randomly bad at it? Or are we bad at it? Randomness is one possible explanation. There are plenty of others. Yes and no. The stat isn't about scoring from the goalline ... but it also is not about passing touchdowns from the goalline. It's about the success percentage on attempted passes from the goalline, or more specifically from the 3 and in. Success percentage, not total numbers.

If you look at his postseason games here against teams not named the Chiefs, he's been damn good.

Give us another dimension? Yeah. You have to pay game changing players regardless of the cap? Hell, no. Pay him a ton and you're right back next year to where we were this offseason, only worse. They spent this season getting back to decent cap shape, and they had to give up a lot of talented vets to do it. You don't want to be in that situation again and again. The Bills should be trying to get a guy who can athletically get to the QB. But they don't appear willing to do that for a guy who also can't set the edge and stop the run. I'm no Reddick expert, but when they do bring in an athlete, they seem to want one who's not a one-trick pony. Look at Von. He can still set the edge and fill his gap. My impression is that Reddick can't be counted on for that, though I'm really willing to be corrected on that if there are more Philly watchers out there. It's not a good idea on the cap, it just isn't, and I am not sure he fits anyway.

Yup. I'm predicting man press coverage every play and zero WR completions all year long.

Yeah. Wish he'd had a chance with his health. Didn't look like he was going to make the roster in any case, but who know. Injuries are always a shame.

Not ten meters, but yes.

Marino really like what Jonathan did this week. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-22-review-why-did-buffalo-bills-look-so-disjointed/id1145479962?i=1000665030972

This is true. But him with Howie would be a dangerous combo.

And they'll be geniuses and it will prove that Beane should be fired. Oh, please. That's not happening. Nobody's turning their noses up at Aiyuk. Everyone knows he's damn good. They're saying (very reasonably) that getting him would cost too much on the cap in our situation. Apparently SF feels the same way. Nobody's turning their noses up at him.

I would not like to see that. Vrabel is a damn good coach.

In the end, it really does. If cash is actually paid to the player, there is no way to avoid it hitting the cap. And if the player is gone, all the pro-rated money that hasn't hit the cap gets accelerated (differently depending whether or not it's pre or post June 1st, but it's all got to be paid, every penny). Also, a bunch of Hurts' money hits sooner than the void year in real life. If you look at the bottom of the Spotrac page, in the section called "Contract Notes," you see there are a bunch of things that will hit the contract before those void years. For instance, the 2026 salary is $1.215M. But as of March 2025, $30.804M of the 2026 salary fully guarantees. So in March 2025, his 2026 salary goes up to $32M. Also, look at the "Potential Out." At the beginning of the 2028 season if they cut him they'll have paid him $208.3M. All of which will have to go against the cap, either in 2028 or maybe some will spill into 2029. It all has to be paid in the end. If it goes to the player, it has to hit the cap. How and when depends whether they still want him each year, whether they re-structure him, and so on. But it all has to be paid.

Yeah. I think you said, "we're not allowed to talk about it," and so he was going to talk about it. I could be wrong, though. Anyway, I thought before camp that Kincaid was going to be right up there with what Kelsay got last year. As camp passes and he gets more dominant, I'm thinking he'll maybe even do a bit better than that.

Yup. Precisely on target.

The Chiefs may have had two players finish in the top 32 in the NFL in receiving yards every season since Mahomes has been with the team. But as recently as ... oh, yeah, last year, when they won a Lombardi ... only one of those players was a WR, Rashee Rice. Oh, and I love the way you said "the top 32." What a coincidence you picked 32 instead of 30. Rashee Rice was #32, with 938 yards. Their second-best WR last year, Watson, finished at #95 in the league in receiving yards. #32 and #95 as the top two WRs on a Super Bowl winning team. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Throw in our TE and there's a decent chance we too have two players finish in the top 32 this year. Hell, Curtis Samuel finished at #33 in 2020, and that was with Teddy Bridgewater throwing to him, not Josh Allen. And there's an excellent chance that our top two WRs out-produce the Chiefs top two from last year. They only managed 1398 between the two of them, Rice and Watson. We could easily have our top two WRs total more than that.

95% is high. That would translate to already knowing 48 out of 51. They don't know with nearly that much precision. I mean, of course 75% to 85% they know, barring major surprises. But after that it's absolutely affected by camp and the pre-season. And IMO MVS is not a lock by any means. He would have been if performing up to expectations, but he hasn't. Somewhere between a 40% - 80% chance he stays, maybe, at a guess.

That's true, I didn't highlight that part. Or any of the other stuff he wrote that was irrelevant to my point or anything else you said that I was replying to. I got an idea, why don't you go back, and highlight all the other stuff that was irrelevant to our argument? Why stop at only a few irrelevant sentences? Does poinpoint placement sound like Josh Allen to me? Um, yeah. It absolutely does. Allen isn't as consistent as Burrow or Brady with it, but he's absolutely a guy who hits poinpoint passes multiple times every single game. By the way, STILL WAITING FOR THAT LINK!!! You're going to get back to us about that statement you attributed to Waldman, aren't you? Remember? When you said that Waldman said, ""that the quality of your top 2 receiving targets greatly dictates whether you have a chance of reaching a SB or not." I think we're all waiting for that. For all I know, he did say it I don't read everything he says. Yet strangely, you overlooked replying about that. Don't worry, I'm sure we're all willing to wait. You hang in there and keep looking. Don't worry, I won't let you forget. Oh, and never change, dude. I point out how you're consistently changing misrepresenting people's statements. And you jump right in and do it again to prove my point. Thanks for that. We can always chuckle at another example of this from you. You say, "The praise he gives Coleman is faint." So, for those keeping score, here is some of the "faint" praise he gives Coleman ... from the article Badol is referring to: "Coleman is on the cusp of the Franchise Tier: Immediate production and leadership anchor." "Coleman’s contested-catch ability—arguably the best in this class" "Coleman often earns 1-2 steps on cornerbacks within the first 12-15 yards of a route and he routinely stacks them to cut off their position for the remainder of the route." "his breaks are sharp and flat," "t’s an excellent ceiling." "Coleman has a terrific catch radius and stone-cold confidence about winning the ball between defenders, regardless of how many there are, how big they are, and where they are relative to him and the ball." "runs well after the catch." "What stands out the most about Coleman in this role is how efficiently he changes direction. He flips his hips like a veteran running back and can point the toe to open his hips in tight traffic, which helps him hug blocks, set up opponents into the block, and then bounce outside." "he earns a quick 1-2 steps back to the quarterback on timing routes" "Coleman could have a career similar to Anquan Boldin, Mike Williams, or maybe Brandon Marshall if his route skills carry over and find the right fit with a good quarterback." "Coleman dictates physicality from the release through the catch point." "Coleman has a good feel for pacing in his routes and this helps him tell efficient stories without a lot of wasted movement." "He has an efficient wipe that he’ll combine with a stick to work past defenders playing over him as he works up the seam. He also has an efficient shed in tight quarters to set up the fade." "He’ll use the wipe as a counter to a one-step stretch or double up with an arm-drum. He has a good swat-swim combination. He’ll also steal a release with a patient but a sudden double up with his inside foot after diving inside against off-coverage." And that's only from the first half of the article, there's a ton more. Yeah, I picked only positives. That's to refute your dumb point about "faint praise." Folks, here's the link: https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2024/07/30/keon-coleman-matt-waldmans-rsp-pre-nfl-draft-scouting-report/ Take a look for yourself at how "faint" his praise is. There are really only two reasons for someone to call that kind of wording "faint praise." The first is that he's an absolute moron. And clearly that's not you. Even your worst enemy wouldn't accuse you of that. The second, though, is that he's desperately trying to make a point and is willing to completely and consciously misrepresent what another man says. And frankly, that's you, all over. Again and again, even just in this thread, but really everywhere. What Waldman actually says is that his evaluation of Coleman requires "nuance and context." "Faint praise," is absolute nonsense. But it certainly is true that Waldman isn't only positive. There's nuance there His praise for Coleman is anything but faint. It's glowing. However, he doesn't have only praise for him. It's nuanced. But positive enough that his Player Comparison Spectrum for Coleman is this: "Anquan Boldin/Mike Williams - X - Tee Higgins." And his summary is, "Coleman is on the cusp of the Franchise Tier: Immediate production and leadership anchor." "Faint praise"? That's not just wrong, it's deliberately misleading about what Waldman actually says.