GaryPinC

No, he explained in a relative way what he did. For example, he did not mention borrowing the 3rd down data until responding to a comment below the article. If you have a link to where his actual study is it would be a great help if you would provide it. A peer reviewed statistical publication would be fantastic. I took a quick look but couldn't find it. You are correct, he did not explicitly say "you should always go for it" so my apologies for misspeaking. His graph, however, does recommend going for it inside your own 20 with fourth and 1, quite often fourth and two. "He makes it clear that decisions will (and should) frequently vary depending upon the score of the game and the amount of time remaining." So maybe go for it, unless a coach in a game situation doesn't think it's wise. Fantastic stuff. Without his actual study (only him presenting graphs in an article on his website) he (or I) may be mischaracterizing the conclusions. This I do know: You don't just throw out half a football game because you think the time during the game is inappropriate. You prove it with statistical significance not a subjective, unproven statement. Common sense hypotheses or arguments need to be statistically justified to produce a strong research paper. How about how he chooses to define "expected points"?: "EP is the average potential points a team can expect given a certain situation. The most common example is the potential point value of a 1st down at each yard line on the field. EP is the average of all 'next' score values at any given yard line. It's not necessary the average points scored on the current possession because possession could be exchanged several times before the 'next' score. EP is positive when the offense will usually score next, and negative if the defense will usually score next." So if the Bills get the ball at their nine, punt, the other team fumbles or has a bunch of penalties and we end up getting the ball at their 15 and punch in the touch down, by Brian's definition those points apply to when the Bills started at their own 9. Is that really valid? Or is it more a function of starting at opponents 15? If it is not valid at the Bills 9 yard line then the expected point value would become more negative on the 9 and skew his fourth down recommendations. I don't know the answers. All I am pointing out is the dogma level is running huge on this right now. I think most any intelligent football fan suspects that coaches are too conservative on certain fourth downs and Brian certainly does a great job of subjectively pandering to that school of thought. I would like to see his methodologies and be wrong about the subjectivity part. But researchers who use methodical, statistically proven criteria for selecting data and defining parameters don't typically fall back on subjective justifications . They clearly state their proof.

It's not amazing to me. Interesting, but there are too many biases. Inside your own 20 @ 4th and 1 or 2 you should always go for it?!?! And how many times has this happened in the first and third quarters in the 9 seasons the author uses for his dataset? In addressing post-article 4 comments the author states that the conversion rates for third and fourth down appear to be similar and that for situations like 4th and 10 from a given yard line when there's not "enough" 4th down data he used the third down conversion rate instead. He never reveals how much of his data is based on third down conversion rates. He never in any way statistically justifies throwing out 2nd and 4th quarter data, where possibly a larger % of fourth down conversion attempts actually occur. When you've got an author admitting he's fudged together his data it's really difficult to say how strong that data actually is. I would guess that with 9 football seasons to analyze, his n of fourth down attempts at each yard mark is mostly very small and/or he borrowed a lot of third down conversion data.

Yea, if Gronk were smart he'd get it removed and treat before trying another plate. I don't work with human patients but healing is usually compromised in the infected area though not sure if that's the same for bone. If the bacteria worked their way down the screws it's in the bone, too. I feel sorry for him trying to push this. Hope it works out like they are planning.

I hear ya, it is amazing watching him accelerate to home in on the ball. Especially for a guy who really wasn't blessed with a lot of top-end speed. It'll be fun to follow him and see how he develops. And Nix/coaches are on the line because using a second round pick means they feel he can be developed through his weaknesses. He's 238 lbs now, hope he hits training camp @ just over 250. And I hope the weight's added to legs and core!

Took a look at the links you provided and the stanford game. I see the similarities between Conlan and Kiko but I think Conlan was far more of an impact hitter but had overall less range than Kiko. Both have a nose for the ball and really zero in on it quickly and Kiko is a very good cover backer too. The only opinion I'd have to disagree with you on is that he appears to stack and shed well. If Kiko has room to get around a lineman or the lineman is lazy and doesn't drive into him Kiko does shed well, but most plays where a lineman locks in on him he gets stood up, run over or moved out of the way. On short yardage plays he was useless unless he could find a space to fit through which didn't happen very often. When it comes to trying to stack a blocker he plays much lighter than his weight IMO. Kiko seems to rely on slipping around and between people. That's ok but it'll be interesting to see how he fares at the bigger, faster NFL level. Certainly he has a lot of talent, I'd like to see him coached up to meet the point of attack better and out-leverage 2nd level linemen. I find myself hoping he puts on 15 pounds or so and worry how his injury history will factor in...

I believe Kiper gave us a poor grade on the draft primarily because of his doubts about Manuel's ability. Manuel was drafted well before the rest of his QB class, a class that has been panned in the press as being of poor quality. If he is a bust for us, most would conclude we reached too much to get him and should have taken ________ at that draft position. I am happy with what the Bills did and arguing about opinions seems useless. Great stuff SJBF, thanks for sharing all of this. Hopefully coaches can refine Kiko's techniques and prolong his career.

Thanks for posting, just more proof that considering everyone knew what the Bills were going to do they probably played the selection of Manuel about as well as you could. Arguably a bit of a reach but had to get him. If EJ doesn't pan out I still respect their methods.

A year or two ago there was a great article discussing Doug Whaley including his work with the steelers and his place in the Bills organization. I came away believing that Doug was a good pro scout with the steelers and would have been unprepared to become a GM even though he was an "up and coming candidate". I think Doug is happy being groomed into the position and that is why he's staying put. I think Buddy stays this year and at least through the draft next year, though I can see Doug taking a leadership role in the draft next year. We'll see, it's all speculation but I think Buddy will not be shy about letting us know when Doug takes the lead on things.

Just a shame he can't get it done in the NFL

How about renaming the title of the thread to "brief impression about our new staff from a current syracuse player" I fail to see any real insight here Insight: noun: 1. The capacity to gain an accurate and deep intuitive understanding of a person or thing

I agree with you, but did you really need to put F**K in your sentence to get your point across? Oh, the hypocrisy.

For me I think it's because he's actually planning to succeed rather than simply trying to coach and hope for success eventually. Even if we have a 3 win season, if the guy's smartly going for the jugular at each and every opportunity then I'll feel better about it than any other season the last 10+ years.

I'm not sure that spending big money on free agents is Marrone's decision. Agree that not doing so is smart though. With all due respect to people like Marrone and Eric Wood, it is a rebuilding year as the new staff and their schemes hit the ground and see where the holes are and exactly where/how this team needs to be led. It makes no sense to spend top money on free agents this year. I also have no problem with them getting BPA's early in the draft, even though we have pressing needs. If a franchise QB isn't there don't reach for one, get a 2-4th round guy to develop. Seems like next year will be better for QB anyways. With a new staff, first year is always rebuilding time. Critical question is how much is needed? That's where my fingers are crossed. Buddy Nix is a decent judge of talent but one of the least shrewd GM's in the league so he can't restock a cupboard quickly. Like you, I just want to see solid progress this year.

Wonder what the delay was completing his contract? It would have sent a good message for him to show up today, but he's just a stopgap.

I just want to hear the story of how he fell off the freaking medical scooter. A little too top heavy were we?

Yea, there was another thread about this 2-3 months ago IIRC based on an article about all this. The article discussed how Dareus overcame rough upbringing and his grandmother and HS Coach played a critical role in his life besides his parents but he lost all of them. Dareus was grateful for all these lost influences and was trying to pay it back by being a mentor to his younger brother who was the one shot last fall. Poor guy, I can't imagine. Just hope he's all right mentally, tough hands he's always overcome but wow.

They say that every new day is a smaller percent of your lifetime. But who really knows?

Chud is an interesting hire for Cleveland. I will always remember the great job he did with that Browns offense his first year as OC in 2007. You just don't see a first year OC come in and be so successful very often. Did it with carolina last year also, not sure what happened this season. Hope he does well for the Browns.

This. Subjective experts were willing to talk to us or sought us out. How different this is from last time. Coaches know they have to show significant upwards progress by year 2 and that's really hard if the cupboard is bare when they arrive.

Stevie Johnson said he wanted to be back last year and he himself thought it wouldn't happen.

I'm wrong and you're right, they did have some preliminary talks in June. I guess to me Levitre did sound dissatisfied with the process but maybe he really does just want to leave. http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5310/andy-levitre

I agree with Nix's dissatisfaction and that you can't keep turning over coaching staffs every 3 years but play of the team, lack of adjustments, and decision making on both sides of the ball left no other choice. Bills just reeked of poor coaching this year.

They may keep them on staff, inform them the next head coach will decide and they are free to seek another job in the meantime.

Part of the problem in my mind is that it sounds like Buddy hasn't bothered to have any serious talks with his agent yet. It's a sign of disrespect to a player to be forced to play out the last year of his contract unless injuries were a significant factor.

Thanks for your efforts Chan. I liked you a lot more in the 2010 and most of the 2011 season. Somewhere along the way you turned into a Dick Jauron-style decision maker. Got to take chances and do your own thing. You also needed to kick Wannstedt in the ass instead of leaving him alone on his island. That's what a head coach would have done.