HardyBoy

Interesting to think of it like roto fantasy baseball. The goal is to get the most points spread out across all the statistics not just be the best in one or two statistical categories and average in the others. Makes me think a bit differently about the defense not getting a ton of sacks this year. Plus qb pressures, force qbs to get rid of the ball quickly on short routes that take away double moves, and tackle well preventing short passes from becoming long passes. If they can do all those things better than average, consistently, they will add up to significantly better compiled end stats and results than having a lot of sacks but giving up a lot of yards per pass attempt. I would much rather have a low ypa against with an average third down defense than a large ypa against with a good third down defense (i think), because you get beat in the nfl by big plays, not giving up a third and two 60 yards from the end zone.

http://www.nflpenalties.com/penalty/offside-on-free-kick?year=2014 22 times last year in the league bills called for it once. /troll thread

They need to explore technology that augments a referees calls, not overturn them. Replay already takes way too long. Ex glasses that have computer technology that lets them see things from different angles and slow plays down. Throw a flag that says there might be a penalty, they rewatch it quickly and either throw a flag or not at that point.

Holy crap look at his eyes, they look dead in the second picture, like a drugged up zombie. As mentioned in this thread, helmets aren't going to stop concussions from people moving really fast in one direction and then suddenly stopping or going in the other direction...it's shot of like being in a falling elevator and saying you will jump at the last second and wear a helmet...not going to help you in the slightest. Now if you could slow the impact of that elevator and the ground with some padding maybe (most collision points are not helmet to helmet). What about better shoulder pads and full body kevlar, or something like that.

There is absolutely no chance the nfl has any sketchy activities going on whatsoever. No chance of any improprieties going on at all, and any that have already 'allegedly' occurred are total random acts that have zero predictive value. How refreshing to start a thread that is NOT bashing the nfl in any way...super excited for the positive contribution this thread will make on the board.

Sweet hot take, well thought out and not at all cliche. Telling me to go watch women's basketball was my favorite and most original part of your post...well done! This was less a big deal in the nba, but if this is true and you have people literally giving themselves long term brain damage, committing suicide and murder for your entertainment, and the games are rigged...that's bordering on conspiracy manslaughter, isnt it? Just the idea of a fix being in place is a really bad thing for the nfl and forget about this possibly extending to college, where exploitation is not a choice. You realize Snowden made your comment extremely short sighted, as did Donaghy, Italian soccer, FIFA, and a number of other events. DraftKings and FanDuel literally just got caught yesterday and it wouldn't take some crazy broad conspiracy either. Simply knowing what the refs are emphasizing for a particular game would be more than enough and a huge advantage in and of itself. Absolutely amazing, thank you!

I'm pretty nasty with excel (data analyst, but more look at big trends by categorizing and grouping tiny pieces of data together. You get me the data, or point me where i can find it and I'll identify if something doesn't look right. What we need is specific betting amounts. Basically the micro data that lead to the trend in the page I linked to. What about a game lead to the outcome in terms of gambling? Exactly what you were saying...how many 17 penalty games are there where the under came through, or how many drives were extended by defensive holding where the over came through. If there is a situation going on, we should be able to see it without getting too crazy detailed at first, it would be significant. And all the blame goes to a hot head undisciplined players coach who doesn't hold his players accountable.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/betting-trends/giants-@-bills.cfm/date/10-04-15/time/1300 I found that...what does it mean?

I just found the over/under at 47 and 43 two different places. That definitely raises some questions with regards to some of those late calls. Remember Donaghy was really trying to influence over/under more than who covers. Gotta figure the best way to hedge that game would be pick the bills to cover and take the under. If the bills win, it's likely running away so they would cover, and if they lose it's likely going under. Going into the fourth the bills weren't covering (shoot at halftime they were pretty much not covering), so anyone hedging there bets is hoping the bills get no calls, lose their composure and get called for all sorts of crazy penalties shooting themselves in the foot and keeping points off the board. The Giants being up, just run out the clock...crazy that's exactly what happened for the most part, until they inexplicably threw on third down (picked) with a chance to ice the game with a field goal. That's when the penalties really started too. Where can we find the betting trends on the game? This really does seem fishy.

What was the over/under in the bills giants game? Also, you have to figure they emphasized keeping the bills on a short leash to the refs leading up to the game all week. Gotta figure the bills were getting most of the action gambling wise, the over seemed a pretty sure lock and the team had a reputation of over aggressiveness after the play. If someone knew that the refs were instructed to call the game tight, that certainly would make the giants a much better bet, and the under a more likely outcome. Even if the points weren't taken off the board by those penalties, the bills weren't covering going into the fourth quarter. It certainly raises questions.

Did you see how quickly they picked up chunks of yards when things started clicking? The d shut down the giants for stretches of that game, and the giants were still trying to score. Whaley has a long term plan and vision, and the fact that a short term result was crap doesn't make the plan crap. This isn't like the other bills teams that started hot and ended up flaming out, kind of like the jets now, where everything needs to go right and in a small sample size you look like world beaters. This is a different team.

I'm sure this is answered already, but I just got to this post. If every player in the league picks the same player, their points cancel out for everyone. It's like the ncaa tournament this year. Anyone who picked Kentucky was a sucker...most likely right, even though they lost, but still a sucker. That's because since everyone picked Kentucky, had they won everyone would have gotten the points and it made scoring correctly in the early rounds super important...no room for error. The nfl single week fantasy leagues have no early round, you only pick maybe 10 players so everyone picking the same lineup as anyone else can only tie. This is a huge deal if true, basically means it's rigged, especially since if they are showing that are willing to cheat, they are likely willing to trade that information or possibly rope refs in to help influence scoring...Ingram getting that td vultured last night for example.

Unless you're the Bills of course...

They kick a field goal there and it's over...instead interception and 14 bills points called back by penalties prevented a very different discussion. Was a much worse decision than Eli throwing it away in week 1 imo.

Exactly, the goal should not be to just make the playoffs and lose in the first game (being down in South Florida, that is/was pretty much the hope for the Dolphins). This team is too talented for that. The goal is a deep playoff run, and they cannot achieve that without going through growing pains and overcoming adversity. So much better this happens now than late in the season when it's too late to make adjustments and the opponents can duplicate what they see on film as working. Plenty of time to adjust and make counters, and plan for the counters to the counters.

As far as Rex's comments of being proud. We have no idea what he is saying to the team when the cameras are off, but I can pretty much promise you he is not using the word proud. Remember how Philbin created a QB controversy last year for saying something honest? Much better to make himself the story in this situation, and lay into the team hard during the week. Honestly, he probably isn't going to have to do much of that anyway. You think the players don't realize it is unaccepatble? They will correct this internally and not in the media. I think what's happening is we are all so angry about the number of penalties, many of which were ticky tacky by the way, that we want to hear someone put our feelings into words and throw the team under the bus. Rex is not that kind of coach, and this will be a better team in the long run for it. I do agree that approach is quite unsatisfying today, but a head on a stake will not make us feel too much better, and certainly won't make this team better.

The players are going to have to hold each other accountable. From the postgame sounds like KW is already on it.

I can't even imagine the razors edge that must be, in terms of playing with such extreme emotion and passion, but having to stop as soon as a whistle blows...humans aren't wired that way. That's the thing, they have to play basically to the very edge of control and the extra energy from the crowd, which is amazing, might be the tiny little nudge that pushes them over the ledge. Brown hopefully doesn't get suspended btw, don't think he should, but he put his hands on an official and was somewhat lucky he didn't get ejected. The ref he touched was the one that threw the flag.

This is different...there is a clear plan and it is being executed.

Better to struggle early in the year and learn from the mistakes than to be a paper tiger waiting to be exposed in November. Ask the Jets in a month and a half how that feels. If this team has a chance to do anything special, which I think is possible, they need to go through and overcome adversity. Much rather that be now than a must win game where they are making those mistakes for the first time...Syracuse basketball a few years back when they were undefeated for most of the year comes to mind as something I'd prefer to avoid.

I feel that also...like it starts out nice enough, then they start calling the refs out a bit, then it's over the top and gets out of hand. You don't think the energy from the fans bleeds into the way they interact with the refs though? We'll see next close away game what happens I guess. On one hand you call them professionals and on the other you say they are brainwashed...which is it? If the coaches attitude can rub off on the players, so can the crowd's energy, no? Not saying it's a bad thing, just need to channel it better. They'll get it figured out, it really is better to have too much passion than not enough.

Has Spiller only played a couple plays so far? Is he hurt?

Is the crowd, as awesome as it is, getting the d too pumped up?

That shouldn't get lost in all of this. That was a very, very winnable game, and the ability to get touchdowns is one of the keys that kept the Bills in this game. Penalties and turnovers are what lost this game. A lot of those penalties were right, but there were several, that were just bad calls, and they all seemed to come in huge spots. Turnovers, especially fumbles lost, and horrible penalty calls are largely random, and will even out over the course of the season. What isn't going to even out, is giving up 1.9 yards per carry, or being 100% in the red zone. This is a very good team, that is going to keep getting better. With their December schedule though, they need to pull off a big streak starting this week...like 5 of 6 wins big.

I don't know that I would necessarily say he's bad in coverage, at least in terms of keeping up with receivers and staying on their hip/closing quickly enough to make a play. What he does have trouble with is actually making a play. He seems to often be in great position to swat the ball away, or make an interception and it seems like he just misjudges the ball at the last moment. Am I wrong?