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Brian Orakpo's Disappearing Act?


Chilly

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So, I've seen a couple mentions of Brian Orakpo pulling a disappearing act at times.

 

This isn't necessarily wrong - but I don't think its a 100% accurate view of what is going on. Most of the time this season, Orakpo was double and (once in a while) triple teamed. He's not good enough to consistently beat the double-team, which is why it seemed like he disappeared. I'm not sure any of the DEs in this draft are good enough to be a strong force while double teamed like he was.

 

However, if you want to see what he can do against a decent tackle, check out the Oklahoma game tape. He flat out destroyed Loadholt in that game, who will likely become a decent tackle in the NFL.

 

Orakpo is not perfect, but he'd be a welcomed addition to the Bills D-line. He could definitely beat some tackles one-on-one with his quickness and moves, and he would cause matchup problems (having to block Schobel, Stroud, and Orakpo would present some problems).

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So, I've seen a couple mentions of Brian Orakpo pulling a disappearing act at times.

 

This isn't necessarily wrong - but I don't think its a 100% accurate view of what is going on. Most of the time this season, Orakpo was double and (once in a while) triple teamed. He's not good enough to consistently beat the double-team, which is why it seemed like he disappeared. I'm not sure any of the DEs in this draft are good enough to be a strong force while double teamed like he was.

 

However, if you want to see what he can do against a decent tackle, check out the Oklahoma game tape. He flat out destroyed Loadholt in that game, who will likely become a decent tackle in the NFL.

 

Orakpo is not perfect, but he'd be a welcomed addition to the Bills D-line. He could definitely beat some tackles one-on-one with his quickness and moves, and he would cause matchup problems (having to block Schobel, Stroud, and Orakpo would present some problems).

You know what scares me about him - this is the same knock on Vernon Golston from last year and he was what some scouts throught he woudl be...just beats up on lesser guys, but in the NFL, he seems to lack the drive and that mean streak...Probably too soon, but these guys that flash brilliance scare me....

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He's likely to be gone in the top 5, unless we see major changes.

 

Most professional's boards that I've seen have him going no sooner than 8th overall, and lasting perhaps as late as 12th.

 

That's because at the top of the draft teams optimize more towards best long-term player than positional need. Thus, every year there's a group of guys that make up the top picks, and they could go in any order. Last year, for instance, the top group consisted of Long, Long, McFadden, Ryan, Dorsey, and Gholston. Those 6 players were going to be the top 6 picks; in what order they go depends on which team likes which guy.

 

This year, it's starting to shape up as though there will again be 6 players in the "top crop", at least as far as I can tell from researching what the professional talent evaluators believe. Those 6 players are as follows:

 

Andre Smith - OT/Alabama

Matthew Stafford - QB/Georgia

Aaron Curry - LB/Wake Forest

Michael Crabtree - WR/Texas Tech

Malcolm Jenkins - CB/Ohio State

Eugene Monroe - OT/Virginia

 

So it looks as though Orakpo will last to at least pick 7, and after that it will become more of a balance between need and long-term potential, which becomes more difficult to project. Although if I had to guess, I'd say Orakpo goes either 7 to Oakland or 9 to Green Bay.

 

Just my 1 cent.

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I think you will see the Lions taget someone on the Line, Prob D line (New Coach - defensive - will want to build a team like his old one in Tenn).

 

Spagnoloa will target a pass rusher to work with who is there and build his D in St. Louis

 

Dont kid yourself, the Chiefs are most likely going to target a pass rusher, too (I think they had 12 sacks or soemthing terrible this year)

 

Cleveland will be tempted to add one of the Tweener guys for their 3-4.

 

Oakland needs a pass rush.

 

Green Bay will look at DE too

 

SF still needs a top rush LB for their 3-4.

 

And the Bills pick....

 

My point is, if there are ANY DE/Tweener types worthy of a top 10 pick, they will be gone by the time the Bills get to pick. No DE worth a top 3 selection will make it out of the top 3. No DE worth a top 7 will make it past Oakland and so on. Some team may even look to trade up and snag someone on our radar (D.Harvey). I expect the usual to happen to the Bills, we sit back and watch the impact rookie/pro bowler get drafted a spot or two ahead of us (Roethlisberger, Patrick Willis, Peppers).

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IMO, there just aren't any DE's in the draft that can change a defense, and that's what we need. We already have a bunch of average DE's on the team. Orakpo appears to be the best of the group, but in a normal year I think he is a guy taken around the 25th pick.

 

There is no reason to use such a high pick on a guy just because he's the best of a very weak class. And given our need for a dominate DE, I don't even think he's worth trading down to get. He just doesn't fill a need.

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I think you will see the Lions taget someone on the Line, Prob D line (New Coach - defensive - will want to build a team like his old one in Tenn).

 

Spagnoloa will target a pass rusher to work with who is there and build his D in St. Louis

 

Dont kid yourself, the Chiefs are most likely going to target a pass rusher, too (I think they had 12 sacks or soemthing terrible this year)

 

Cleveland will be tempted to add one of the Tweener guys for their 3-4.

 

Oakland needs a pass rush.

 

Green Bay will look at DE too

 

SF still needs a top rush LB for their 3-4.

 

And the Bills pick....

 

My point is, if there are ANY DE/Tweener types worthy of a top 10 pick, they will be gone by the time the Bills get to pick. No DE worth a top 3 selection will make it out of the top 3. No DE worth a top 7 will make it past Oakland and so on. Some team may even look to trade up and snag someone on our radar (D.Harvey). I expect the usual to happen to the Bills, we sit back and watch the impact rookie/pro bowler get drafted a spot or two ahead of us (Roethlisberger, Patrick Willis, Peppers).

 

2 bones to pick with that comment:

 

1) Trading up is like slow dancing...you have to have a partner to do it. You can want to trade up really badly, but if nobody wants to trade with you, you can't do a thing about it. Who was going to trade down so that the Bills could pick Big Ben, Willis, and Peppers?

 

2) It's not as though the Bills haven't done their fair share of trading up the past few years. They've traded up recently for Losman, McCargo, Posluzsny, and futher back than that Ryan Denney. I realize these aren't impact guys, but it's hardly unusual for the Bills to trade up in the draft.

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So, I've seen a couple mentions of Brian Orakpo pulling a disappearing act at times.

 

This isn't necessarily wrong - but I don't think its a 100% accurate view of what is going on. Most of the time this season, Orakpo was double and (once in a while) triple teamed. He's not good enough to consistently beat the double-team, which is why it seemed like he disappeared. I'm not sure any of the DEs in this draft are good enough to be a strong force while double teamed like he was.

 

However, if you want to see what he can do against a decent tackle, check out the Oklahoma game tape. He flat out destroyed Loadholt in that game, who will likely become a decent tackle in the NFL.

 

Orakpo is not perfect, but he'd be a welcomed addition to the Bills D-line. He could definitely beat some tackles one-on-one with his quickness and moves, and he would cause matchup problems (having to block Schobel, Stroud, and Orakpo would present some problems).

Schobel is consistently manhandled-esp over the past 4 yrs. They toss him around--its a joke--If you are gonna play DE at 243 LBs you better not be a slow white guy.

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He's likely to be gone in the top 5, unless we see major changes.

 

We have him gone by San Francisco's pick at 10, and probably Oakland's pick at #7. You will remember the 49'ers, the ones who took Patrick Willis LB.

 

As of Jan 15, we think it'll be

1 Detroit Eugene Monroe OT Virginia -2 Reach

2 St Louis Michael Oher OT Mississippi -3 Reach

3 Kansas City Aaron Curry ILB Wake Forest +1 Value

4 Seattle Michael Crabtree WRF Texas Tech +3 Value

5 Cleveland Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State +1 Value

6 Cincinnati Andre Smith OT Alabama +0 Value

7 Oakland Brian Orakpo DE43 Texas -3 Reach

8 Jacksonville Jeremy Maclin WRF Missouri -5 Reach

9 Green Bay BJ Raji DT43 Boston College -5 Reach

10 San Francisco Jason Smith OT Baylor +2 Value

11 Buffalo Everette Brown DE43 Florida State +0 Value

 

and we're doing another Consensus Mock tomorrow.

 

Astrobot, Bills Correspondent

www.DraftTek.com

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IMO, there just aren't any DE's in the draft that can change a defense, and that's what we need. We already have a bunch of average DE's on the team. Orakpo appears to be the best of the group, but in a normal year I think he is a guy taken around the 25th pick.

 

There is no reason to use such a high pick on a guy just because he's the best of a very weak class. And given our need for a dominate DE, I don't even think he's worth trading down to get. He just doesn't fill a need.

 

I don't disagree with this assessment. I think Orakpo *will* help out the team's pass rush that he goes to, and he can be a monster, but he's not good enough to consistently break double-teams, which is what you are expecting when you draft a player like him at #8ish.

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So, I've seen a couple mentions of Brian Orakpo pulling a disappearing act at times.

 

This isn't necessarily wrong - but I don't think its a 100% accurate view of what is going on. Most of the time this season, Orakpo was double and (once in a while) triple teamed. He's not good enough to consistently beat the double-team, which is why it seemed like he disappeared. I'm not sure any of the DEs in this draft are good enough to be a strong force while double teamed like he was.

 

However, if you want to see what he can do against a decent tackle, check out the Oklahoma game tape. He flat out destroyed Loadholt in that game, who will likely become a decent tackle in the NFL.

 

Orakpo is not perfect, but he'd be a welcomed addition to the Bills D-line. He could definitely beat some tackles one-on-one with his quickness and moves, and he would cause matchup problems (having to block Schobel, Stroud, and Orakpo would present some problems).

 

Please, no more picks from DraftBust U. When will people learn.

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IMO, there just aren't any DE's in the draft that can change a defense, and that's what we need. We already have a bunch of average DE's on the team. Orakpo appears to be the best of the group, but in a normal year I think he is a guy taken around the 25th pick.

 

There is no reason to use such a high pick on a guy just because he's the best of a very weak class. And given our need for a dominate DE, I don't even think he's worth trading down to get. He just doesn't fill a need.

 

I agree. There's no 'can't-miss' prospect at DE this year and given the struggles of recent first round DEs, I'd probably shy away from drafting one at 11. These days, it seems that unless the guy is truly a freakish athlete like Mario Williams or Julius Peppers, chances are he's never going to be a dominating all-pro player or even an occasional Pro Bowler. As such, there's little incentive to drafting the typical DE prospect in R1 who is merely 'good', as the dropoff to R2 or even R3 isn't all that significant. As far as this current class of DEs is concerned, the ceiling seems closer to Aaron Schobel's level than it does the two mentioned above. That's not bad, mind you, but that's probably the best case scenario. Its more likely that they will have careers closer to Chris Kelsay and as much as he gets trashed by the fans, he's actually fairly productive in comparison to many of the first round DEs in recent years. That's a little scary, but its something to consider if they plan on going that route at 11.

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I agree. There's no 'can't-miss' prospect at DE this year and given the struggles of recent first round DEs, I'd probably shy away from drafting one at 11. These days, it seems that unless the guy is truly a freakish athlete like Mario Williams or Julius Peppers, chances are he's never going to be a dominating all-pro player or even an occasional Pro Bowler. As such, there's little incentive to drafting the typical DE prospect in R1 who is merely 'good', as the dropoff to R2 or even R3 isn't all that significant. As far as this current class of DEs is concerned, the ceiling seems closer to Aaron Schobel's level than it does the two mentioned above. That's not bad, mind you, but that's probably the best case scenario. Its more likely that they will have careers closer to Chris Kelsay and as much as he gets trashed by the fans, he's actually fairly productive in comparison to many of the first round DEs in recent years. That's a little scary, but its something to consider if they plan on going that route at 11.

Last year the Bills went into a draft with next to nothing to offer at the WR position needing a WR. Might as well go the same route on DE this year. :blush:

 

The rumor is that Peppers may be allowed to hit free agency. Also, that he isn't worth the jack he wants and took way too many plays off this past season.

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