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Peter King - interesting comment on Lynch


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From this weeks Tuesday Morning Quarterback (mailbag):

 

• THIS WOULDN'T BE A FANTASY QUESTION, ERIC, WOULD IT? From Eric Batchelor, of Acton, Mass.: "Who's your pick for leading rusher in the NFL this year?''

 

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, because his Michael Turner-security blanket is gone.

 

2. Marshawn Lynch.

 

3. Steven Jackson.

 

4. Joseph Addai.

 

5. Adrian Peterson.

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Tough not to put a healthy Larry Johnson up there...they'll give him a massive number of carries to try to keep games close. They'll still suck, but Johnson should put up huge yardage numbers.

 

Really? They lost like half of their line, and have mostly rookies and young players there, and no QB whatsoever.

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Tough not to put a healthy Larry Johnson up there...they'll give him a massive number of carries to try to keep games close. They'll still suck, but Johnson should put up huge yardage numbers.

 

Johnson is clearly on his way down...historically once an RB hits about 380+ carries in a season, they start declining pretty rapidly...he not only passed it a few years ago, he shattered it, and look what happened last year...

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Johnson is clearly on his way down...historically once an RB hits about 380+ carries in a season, they start declining pretty rapidly...he not only passed it a few years ago, he shattered it, and look what happened last year...

....historically once a RB gets PAID, they start declining pretty rapidly.

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Johnson is clearly on his way down...historically once an RB hits about 380+ carries in a season, they start declining pretty rapidly...he not only passed it a few years ago, he shattered it, and look what happened last year...

 

 

I don't know if there's enough of a body of evidence to support that. For every Earl Campbell or Ricky Williams, there's an Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis, or LaDainian Tomlinson who were overworked early in their careers, yet still stayed productive for many seasons. Sure they'll become a little bit more prone to injury, but not everybody just falls apart overnight anymore.

 

Tomlinson is just a couple months older than Johnson, and has more than twice as many career touches...it's too early to say Johnson is "clearly" on the way down.

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I don't know if there's enough of a body of evidence to support that. For every Earl Campbell or Ricky Williams, there's an Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis, or LaDainian Tomlinson who were overworked early in their careers, yet still stayed productive for many seasons. Sure they'll become a little bit more prone to injury, but not everybody just falls apart overnight anymore.

 

Tomlinson is just a couple months older than Johnson, and has more than twice as many career touches...it's too early to say Johnson is "clearly" on the way down.

And it's too early to say he'll be one of the top RB's this season after coming off an injury and subpar year. Pretty much why he's not listed in PK's top 5....

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I thought they intentionally replaced half their line, as opposed to losing it. I know they drafted Brandon Albert, who ought to be a good one.

He could be. The problem is that he's missed almost all of training camp with a foot injury and won't be ready until the season opener, if even. But the OL was getting old and needed replacing.

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I don't know if there's enough of a body of evidence to support that. For every Earl Campbell or Ricky Williams, there's an Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis, or LaDainian Tomlinson who were overworked early in their careers, yet still stayed productive for many seasons. Sure they'll become a little bit more prone to injury, but not everybody just falls apart overnight anymore.

 

Tomlinson is just a couple months older than Johnson, and has more than twice as many career touches...it's too early to say Johnson is "clearly" on the way down.

 

There is definitely a big enough sample size to take the 370 rule seriously...

However I do think LJ is being sold a bit short this year based on the fantasy rankings I've seen.

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I don't know if there's enough of a body of evidence to support that. For every Earl Campbell or Ricky Williams, there's an Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis, or LaDainian Tomlinson who were overworked early in their careers, yet still stayed productive for many seasons. Sure they'll become a little bit more prone to injury, but not everybody just falls apart overnight anymore.

 

Tomlinson is just a couple months older than Johnson, and has more than twice as many career touches...it's too early to say Johnson is "clearly" on the way down.

 

I think the difference between LJ and LT is that LJ is a pounding type running back while LT is going to try and run around you. The way LJ runs makes him much more prone to wearing down. Of course there are always exceptions to the every rule.

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