Michael Turner - ESPN INSIDER

[jri111]

I think that draft day trades like this one are tougher than they look like on the surface. Turner might be mentally out of San Diego already. He and his agent have been remarkably silent on this. If San Diego does not do a deal on draft day. It will cost him multiple millions in contract value. His Trade value and contract value are never going to be higher than prior to draft day.

A draft day trade leaves no time to negotiate a contract with Turner and no one is going to trade for him and then try to sign him. Any deal has to be done before draft day so that a contract can be in place. If not in the next week or two then a deal is not going to happen.

 

Any value that he has to San Diego during a superbowl run might be negated by the bitterness he would have about losing millions of dollars.

 

 

What do you think the trips to Buffalo and Tennessee were about? He may have "potential deals" already in place with either teams, or both. All that would remain is the compensation to SD. Then again they couldn't, but the point is, you can work out the details of a potential contract with a player pre-draft and then enter the draft knowing that a deal is more or less in place and all that would remain is making the trade with SD work out. This could be true for any team, not just Buffalo. In the end a draft day trade makes the most sense. If a team like Buffalo or Tennesse pull the trigger now, they'll give up much more then they have to. If SD waits until after the draft then they might as well not trade him at all because they wouldn't be able to get "picks" to help them THIS year.

 

If a trade happens I expect it to happen between the 12th (Buffalo's first) and the 50th (Tennessee's second) picks. Anything after and you're getting too far into "post draft" mode and it's worth more just to keep Turner.

 

 

If I had to predict I would say that buffalo is waiting to see what transpires in the first 12 picks before they play the Turner card. If Peterson some how falls to them, then overpaying for Turner NOW would not make sense. If Peterson is gone and they get the LB they want (Willis, Poz, Timmons?) in round 1 then they'll probably be more inclined to press harder for Turner, maybe offering Baltimore's third this year along with the second to get the deal done. I hope it gets done less then that, for example, instead of Baltimore's third from this year, perhaps a conditional pick next year that could range between rounds 2-4 depending on performance. But the difference in the two are a matter of a few degrees and the winner will be determined by who has more "draft day nerves" to hold out longer for what they want.

 

The point is though, a draft day trade makes the most sense. It's where the market will be the most lively and it's the perfect medium between SD having the upper hand (pre-draft) and Buffalo having it (post-draft). Well maybe not buffalo having the upperhand as much as SD losing thier leverage to get something in return for Turner before he leaves next year for nothing.

[Trader]

What do you think the trips to Buffalo and Tennessee were about? He may have "potential deals" already in place with either teams, or both. All that would remain is the compensation to SD. Then again they couldn't, but the point is, you can work out the details of a potential contract with a player pre-draft and then enter the draft knowing that a deal is more or less in place and all that would remain is making the trade with SD work out. This could be true for any team, not just Buffalo. In the end a draft day trade makes the most sense. If a team like Buffalo or Tennesse pull the trigger now, they'll give up much more then they have to. If SD waits until after the draft then they might as well not trade him at all because they wouldn't be able to get "picks" to help them THIS year.

 

If a trade happens I expect it to happen between the 12th (Buffalo's first) and the 50th (Tennessee's second) picks. Anything after and you're getting too far into "post draft" mode and it's worth more just to keep Turner.

If I had to predict I would say that buffalo is waiting to see what transpires in the first 12 picks before they play the Turner card. If Peterson some how falls to them, then overpaying for Turner NOW would not make sense. If Peterson is gone and they get the LB they want (Willis, Poz, Timmons?) in round 1 then they'll probably be more inclined to press harder for Turner, maybe offering Baltimore's third this year along with the second to get the deal done. I hope it gets done less then that, for example, instead of Baltimore's third from this year, perhaps a conditional pick next year that could range between rounds 2-4 depending on performance. But the difference in the two are a matter of a few degrees and the winner will be determined by who has more "draft day nerves" to hold out longer for what they want.

 

The point is though, a draft day trade makes the most sense. It's where the market will be the most lively and it's the perfect medium between SD having the upper hand (pre-draft) and Buffalo having it (post-draft). Well maybe not buffalo having the upperhand as much as SD losing thier leverage to get something in return for Turner before he leaves next year for nothing.

 

You could be right about the Turner meetings. If San Diego does not move him prior or during the Draft, they could have a serious problem in their locker room.

[Dibs]

Here is the link and the "story": http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/features/rumors

Michael Turner

Chargers Titans

Bills?

Jets?

Cowboys? Turner staying put

<Apr. 14> The trade possibilities involving Turner may have played themselves out, ESPN.com's John Clayton reports. The restricted free-agent met with the Bills and Titans, two teams definitely interested in him for this year. The problem is the price tag.

The Chargers might be willing to take less than the first and the third, but they definitely want a first-round pick, either this year or next year.

 

The Bills and Titans seemed to be reluctant meet that asking price. The option remains open for another week, but don?t hold your breath. Turner is too valuable to give up for less than a first-rounder. He will leave the team after 2007 in free agency, but the Chargers should get at least a fourh-round compensatory pick in return.

 

_________

What's funny is John Clayton has practically been the ONLY one reporting right from the beginning that AJ and the Chargers were unwilling to budge for less then a first rounder. At first I dismissed this claim. I though there was NO WAY AJ could expect to get that much in return for back-up running back and that he was merely playing hard-ball (which he still may just be doing). But with this report and earilier this week Chris Mortenson saying on his weekly chat that the Bills have already offered a 2nd and SD refused, maybe neddle-d*ck has been right all along?! Maybe AJ really asking for "so much" in return that it wouldn't be feasible for any team to get him.

 

I personally find this amazing. He would rather give up a second round pick (and most likely even a second and ANOTHER pick too) and have a "great" back-up running back this year then lose Turner for nothing after next year?! It doesn't make sense to me, but my confidence in logic is starting to waver.

 

In the end I still think a draft day trade gets done with either the Titans or the Bills. And in the end I aslo expect it to be a muli-pick deal including some combination of this year's second and either a later round pick in this year's draft (Baltimore's third?) or a conditional pick next year. To me that makes sense for both teams and I think AJ will have ot come down off his stoop eventually and realize the logic and smarts in it. If not, then he'll have Turner for another year, becuase neither the Bills nor the Titans are going to offer their first picks as compensation for Turner.

I'm sure there was a report a short while ago saying the opposite. I know who I think is perhaps not being totally honest.....or at least is self deluded.

[Tcali]

I am not a big fan of trading for Turner. That said I would give a #2 for him & the Ravens #3 next year (conditional) on him gaining 1400 yards. I would increase it to a #1 next year if he gains 2000 yards, nothing next year if he fails to break 1400.

Hold him out that last game because of the old plantar fascitis;)

[Tcali]

Move on. No need to use a one on Turner.

I say we use an Eleven for him....

[JAMIEBUF12]

you know what?

if the bills really believe in michael turner and want to get a linebacker with our first pick.we should just serve up next years #1 pick.we can use next years money to lock up lee evans and j.p. losman.if we really get to have a solid draft this year i think we can afford to not have a #1 next year.we could be in position to say take patrick willis with our pick at#12 and then use our 2nd and 3rd picks to trade back into the lower first and get paul posluszny as well.even if it didn't go that way the point is we would have crazy options knowing we have the runningback position settled.go bills in"07

[ndirish1978]

After we pick Pos I think we should trade our 2nd and a conditional 2-4 fnext year as described above. We could then get another LB in the 3rd and whatever other player the front office likes. We had a good draft last year and I have confidence that 3-7 rd picks can contribute to the team this year in a big way, especially with all the holes in our roster right now.

[obie_wan]

After we pick Pos I think we should trade our 2nd and a conditional 2-4 fnext year as described above. We could then get another LB in the 3rd and whatever other player the front office likes. We had a good draft last year and I have confidence that 3-7 rd picks can contribute to the team this year in a big way, especially with all the holes in our roster right now.

 

good thing we had a good draft last year.

 

because your plan would be huge step backwards.

 

2 # 2 s for a one dimensional player that will get our QB killed because he can't block is insane.

[Gordio]

AJ fired a coach that got SD to 14 wins last season. I don't see him budging from his stance of getting a first rounder. Getting what Turner's worth is not important anymore, it's getting the upper hand on a team like they did with the Giants/Mannng trade. The heels have been dug in at this point. Time to move on and get a RB in the third round unless Peterson were to fall to us at 12.

 

Totall agree with this post. Look, Im pretty confident that either Willis, Peterson or Okoye is going to be there @ 12. If Peterson falls, you grab him no matter what, if AP is gone, then you move on to Willis or Okoye. Grab a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round.

[downsoufbfan]

Totall agree with this post. Look, Im pretty confident that either Willis, Peterson or Okoye is going to be there @ 12. If Peterson falls, you grab him no matter what, if AP is gone, then you move on to Willis or Okoye. Grab a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Lets say that scenario happens and we get AP, then who would be the LB we get in the 2nd rd. considering that he fits the tampa 2 sceme.

[jri111]

good thing we had a good draft last year.

 

because your plan would be huge step backwards.

 

2 # 2 s for a one dimensional player that will get our QB killed because he can't block is insane.

 

 

I come to the conclusion that you know absolutely NOTHING about football

[jri111]

After we pick Pos I think we should trade our 2nd and a conditional 2-4 fnext year as described above. We could then get another LB in the 3rd and whatever other player the front office likes. We had a good draft last year and I have confidence that 3-7 rd picks can contribute to the team this year in a big way, especially with all the holes in our roster right now.

 

 

I agree completely assuming Peterson, Willis and Okoye are gone, Poz would be a great pick. Trading this year's second and a conditioanl pick next year for Turner would soldify RB and then we have two more thirds to work with. Preferrably I would take another LB (i.e. Alexander or Shaw) and CB (I would love it if Hughes fell to early round 3).

[ganesh]

you know what?

if the bills really believe in michael turner and want to get a linebacker with our first pick.we should just serve up next years #1 pick.we can use next years money to lock up lee evans and j.p. losman.if we really get to have a solid draft this year i think we can afford to not have a #1 next year.we could be in position to say take patrick willis with our pick at#12 and then use our 2nd and 3rd picks to trade back into the lower first and get paul posluszny as well.even if it didn't go that way the point is we would have crazy options knowing we have the runningback position settled.go bills in"07

 

I am really surprised at the way people are throwing 1st picks around in trade offers....

 

One negative against Turner is that he will be 25 years old by the time he signs with the team...which means he has lost 3 years of his NFL career. We have too many holes...Even if we make the playoffs, we will need a 1st rounder to go deeper into the playoffs next year. Right now it is only the Bills and Titans who are bidding for his services. I will wait and watch. Everyone seems to say the Chargers hold the card...I disagree...it is the bills who are holding the cards now.....There is good quality at RB position in Rd II. The bills could still go that route and not be forced by AJ smith to give up a 1st for Turner.

[Brandon]

Lets say that scenario happens and we get AP, then who would be the LB we get in the 2nd rd. considering that he fits the tampa 2 sceme.

 

Although the following article is about Patrick Willis, there's an interesting Tom Modrak quote in the first two paragraphs that pretty much answers that question:

 

“It’s a pretty good group overall,” said Tom Modrak, the Bills’ assistant general manager and head of college scouting. “We have a little advantage in that our linebackers don’t have to be a certain height or weight. If they can run, play downhill and are smart, they’ve got a chance to be successful in this defense.”

 

http://www.buffalonews.com/213/story/52813.html

[MDH]

good thing we had a good draft last year.

 

because your plan would be huge step backwards.

 

2 # 2 s for a one dimensional player that will get our QB killed because he can't block is insane.

 

You keep saying this but how did you come to this conclusion? I've watched SD play quite a few times over the past few years and never saw Turner getting the QB killed by missing assignments.

[Gordio]

Lets say that scenario happens and we get AP, then who would be the LB we get in the 2nd rd. considering that he fits the tampa 2 sceme.

 

I dont know, we could probably get a guy like Timmons or Beason in the 2nd round or even trade back into the 1st round to grab Poz(although, I think that is highly unlikely). It is just not the end of the world if we dont get Turner. Chargers asking price is way too much right now.

[obie_wan]

You keep saying this but how did you come to this conclusion? I've watched SD play quite a few times over the past few years and never saw Turner getting the QB killed by missing assignments.

 

that's right.

 

because the only time they used Turner was when they wanted to run the ball.

 

He caught 3 balls last year, LT caught over 50.

 

He didn't play when they wanted to pass.

 

He is the clone of Kenny Davis- good runner but severely limited in all other aspects of the game and thus not deseriving of giving up multiple high picks and a huge contract when the Bills have other options.

[The Dean]

I am really surprised at the way people are throwing 1st picks around in trade offers....

 

One negative against Turner is that he will be 25 years old by the time he signs with the team...which means he has lost 3 years of his NFL career. We have too many holes...Even if we make the playoffs, we will need a 1st rounder to go deeper into the playoffs next year. Right now it is only the Bills and Titans who are bidding for his services. I will wait and watch. Everyone seems to say the Chargers hold the card...I disagree...it is the bills who are holding the cards now.....There is good quality at RB position in Rd II. The bills could still go that route and not be forced by AJ smith to give up a 1st for Turner.

 

 

Actually you are 100% wrong on this, IMO. His age is a HUGE PLUS for the team who gets him. RB's have a 5yr (or so) productive life-span. Their age hardly ever becomes a factor in their decline. The punishment they take from all of the work and all of the hits, takes its eventual toll.

 

Actually, it usually takes a back a couple of years before they REALLY start hitting their peak. Turner has three years experience, but relatively little wear and tear on his body. He also has a little more maturity. IMO. he would be a much safer option than any draft pick.

[The Dean]

I come to the conclusion that you know absolutely NOTHING about football

 

 

It's sad, really. But, you can almost bet $$ against any of ob's pronouncements as every one of them seems to be wrong.

[IDBillzFan]

because the only time they used Turner was when they wanted to run the ball.

 

He didn't play when they wanted to pass.

So now I'm confused. You call Turner "a one dimensional player that will get our QB killed because he can't block," but when MDH argues that he never saw Rivers get killed as a result of Turner missing an assignment, you say that's because he was never in on passing downs.

 

If he was never in on passing downs, then how do you know he's "a one dimensional player that will get our QB killed because he can't block."

 

You're spinning in circles, man.