syhuang Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 I did some researches on the quarterbacks who were drafted after 1995 and developed in similiar ways like Losman. First, I define a "quality game" as a game when a QB attempts at lease 10 passes. This will exclude the games when a young quarterback comes in to play a series or two when the starting qb needs a breath. JP currently has 12 quality games, including 11 starts. I compare JP's performance to other quarterbacks' first 12 career quality games. Second, I exclude the quarterbacks who had more than three quality games in their rookie seasons. These quarterbacks mostly had bad performance in their first 12 games since they're not ready. Including these quarterbacks' performance will only make JP look good. (1) Excluding the quarterbacks who didn't play much in their second year (less than 3 quality games): There're 13 quarterbacks totally. JP has a QB rating of 73.5 and ranks 6th among them. These 13 quarterbacks can be divided into three groups: <a> With QB rating more than 80 in first 12 quality games: Culpepper, Brady, and C.Palmer. <b> With QB rating between 70 and 80: D.Brees (74.9), B.Griese (74.6), and JP Losman. <c> With QB rating less than 70 Other than JP Losman who is still in his third season, the other five quarterbacks in group (a) and (b) have career QB ratings between 84.9 and 90.9. Does this mean JP will develope into an elite quarterback? Maybe, Maybe not. But he definitely is not as bad as some suggest. (2) Including the quarterbacks who didn't play much in their second year (more than 3 quality games): There're 22 quarterbacks totally. JP ranks 14th out of 22. This is understandable, since most of the quarterbacks are more ready in their third season and have better performance in their first 12 quality games if these games are mostly played in their third season. In fact, among the 9 quarterbacks who didn't play much in their first two seasons, 8 of them have better QB ratings than JP in their first 12 career quality games. The only one who doesn't have better qb rating than JP is someone named Matt Hasselbeck (73.2). If we looked at JP's three game performance in his third season alone, he has a qb rating of 86.2. This will rank him 6th out of 22 quarterbacks. In short, JP Losman is in the right track compared to other NFL quarterbacks. He clearly shows improvements this season and is definitely not behind the schedule. Yes, I'm aware that there're flaws in QB rating calculation, for example, it doesn't take the rushing ability or pocket awareness into account, however, it is still a good measurement on quarterbacks. This analysis doesn't project Losman to become a top NFL quarterback, but he certainly is comparable to elite NFL QBs at this stage of their careers. Give JP more time to develop and remember, patience is a virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Please. He should be better mentally. Its his 3rd year mentally, and he should be better when we need him to be. Rob Johnson had a 90 QB rating. Doug Flutie said to the media that Rob Johnson has a high QB rating because he plays safe. JP Losman is playing safe. JP, we didnt draft you to be a care taker, we drafted you to be our future. The future is now, let it rip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syhuang Posted September 25, 2006 Author Share Posted September 25, 2006 On Rob Johnson, he didn't play much in his first three seasons and didn't have 12 quality games until his sixth season. Also, as I mentioned earlier, QB rating is not a perfect tool. But it's widely used to meausre a quarterback's performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wraith Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Please. He should be better mentally. Its his 3rd year mentally, and he should be better when we need him to be. Rob Johnson had a 90 QB rating. Doug Flutie said to the media that Rob Johnson has a high QB rating because he plays safe. JP Losman is playing safe. JP, we didnt draft you to be a care taker, we drafted you to be our future. The future is now, let it rip. 786449[/snapback] You are not qualified to know what his level of play is mentally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 You are not qualified to know what his level of play is mentally. 786457[/snapback] That's obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
true_blue_bill Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 I don't think he's doing that bad. This is what yu get with a young QB. Pennington looked pretty good to me. Hopefully JP will be at that level later this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Norwood Is God Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 You evaluate QB's with passer rating as the primary criteria? Dude, you can't do this comparison without including wins & losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syhuang Posted September 25, 2006 Author Share Posted September 25, 2006 You evaluate QB's with passer rating as the primary criteria? Dude, you can't do this comparison without including wins & losses. 786472[/snapback] For your information, I'm comparing quarterback's abilities. You must be aware that many elite NFL QBs didn't have good W-L records in their first few seasons, especially when their teams were rebuilding. There're many factors which can affect a game's outcome. Do you think Peyton Manning or Tom Brady can have a good W-L record in that Raiders or Titans team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM57 Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 You evaluate QB's with passer rating as the primary criteria? Dude, you can't do this comparison without including wins & losses. 786472[/snapback] Yeah, cause having a line with Pro Bowlers (Palmer and Culpepper) has NO EFFECT whatsoever on wins/losses. You guys are re-fricking-diculous, all of you. Everyone knew this was a rebuilding year, yet with every loss, you act like the f**king sky is falling. You all need to calm down, take a breath, and realize we have the youngest starting lineup(s) in the NFL. Progress will be made, but this year is most likely not a playoff year. And if you think JP has made no progress from last season to this season, you're absolutely ignorant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazyDingo Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 I have done a little research on Posters here on TSW and have compared them to myself since I am the standard. 100% smell better than me in their first 500 posts. 92.8% have better Avatars 66% make better sense Though I believe I will develop into a premiere poster, I am prone to bad decision making and frequently post while inebriated or otherwise loaded. I also feel I am the reincarnation of Kenny Stabler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catholic Guilt Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 JP is no Jim Kelly. Jim Kelly came to the Bills and won every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvermike Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 I think this is interesting analysis - never mind the haters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Norwood Is God Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 For your information, I left out Losman's W/L record because it was horrendous and would have killed my argument. Oh, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syhuang Posted September 25, 2006 Author Share Posted September 25, 2006 Oh, OK. 786531[/snapback] It's impolite to change other people's statement. You need to learn how to spell RESPECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 You evaluate QB's with passer rating as the primary criteria? Dude, you can't do this comparison without including wins & losses. 786472[/snapback] Jim Kelly was 11-20 in his first two seasons in Buffalo. How did that turn out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risin Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Oh, OK. 786531[/snapback] 4 posts and you're already acting like an idiot. It took me 7, but after that I got on a roll. By the way, what was Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning's W/L record their first 11 starts? Yes, the question is rhetorical and redundant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Jim Kelly was 11-20 in his first two seasons in Buffalo. How did that turn out? 786538[/snapback] Yeah, but those were his third and fourth seasons as a pro. Oh, wait a minute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Oh, OK. 786531[/snapback] Not nice...not nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Norwood Is God Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 It's impolite to change other people's statement. You need to learn how to spell RESPECT. 786534[/snapback] My bad syhaung Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Yeah, cause having a line with Pro Bowlers (Palmer and Culpepper) has NO EFFECT whatsoever on wins/losses. You guys are re-fricking-diculous, all of you. Everyone knew this was a rebuilding year, yet with every loss, you act like the f**king sky is falling. You all need to calm down, take a breath, and realize we have the youngest starting lineup(s) in the NFL. Progress will be made, but this year is most likely not a playoff year. And if you think JP has made no progress from last season to this season, you're absolutely ignorant. 786498[/snapback] We need an applause smilie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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