Gotta Go with KC Over Texans

[SoCal Deek]

Has anyone looked at some of the remaining schedules? Indy and the Chargers both face a gauntlet going forward. Those two teams are almost certainly going to fall out of the playoff race. Which means BOTH Houston and KC could make it in. 

[Kelly to Allen]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's almost impossible for them to miss at 11-6. As I say 10-7 is dicey. 

 

Ai says if they just beat the browns and jets, and go 10-7, it's 95% chance buffalo is in. 

 

If we can't get the 1 seed I'm hoping we keep winning but it sets up perfectly for us to rest everyone against the jets

 

Similar to KC in 23 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

Ai says if they just beat the browns and jets, and go 10-7, it's 95% chance buffalo is in. 

 

If we can't get the 1 seed I'm hoping we keep winning but it sets up perfectly for us to rest everyone against the jets

 

Similar to KC in 23 

 

Im willing to go with the numbers. My playing with the playoff machine it felt dicier than that. I ran about 5 versions the other night we made it twice and missed 3 times with just wins v CLE and NYJ. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Has anyone looked at some of the remaining schedules? Indy and the Chargers both face a gauntlet going forward. Those two teams are almost certainly going to fall out of the playoff race. Which means BOTH Houston and KC could make it in. 

 

I posted elsewhere but:

 

LAC - 8-4 - PHI, @KC, @DAL, HOU, @DEN - Absolutely brutal schedule - 10-7? Maybe?

IND - 8-4 - @JAX, @SEA, SF, JAX, @HOU - Another tough slate - Also 10-7.  

JAX - 8-4 - IND, NYJ, @DEN, @IND, Tenn - Couple easy home games, 3 tough games - 11-6 best case which would probably take the division

HOU - 7-5 - @KC, ARI, LVR, @LAC, IND - Couple easier games at home, but 3 tough games - 10-7 best case - indy week 18 might be win and in

KC - 6-6 -HOU, LAC, @TEN, DEN, @LVR - Easy road games, and 3 teams they can beat at home - I'd guess 10-7 and if the loss is to denver they're very much in the mix.

BAL - 6-6 - PIT, @CIN, NE, @GB, @PIT - 3 wins would get them to 9-8

PIT - 6-6 - @BAL, MIA, @DET, @CLE, BAL - Could see them splitting and both finishing 9-8, another interesting week 18 scenario. 

[harryS]

The division seems like an extreme longshot so I agree with OP.

 

We're not going to win 3 consecutive road games to make the Super Bowl.  The only way we can play a home game as a wild card is if KC is in the playoffs with us taking out higher seeds so Buffalo can host an AFCG.

[Big Blitz]

Not happening 

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

One bonus I just thought of to Houston winning - we ideally want to be the 6 seed if we're assuming Baltimore wins the AFCN. For that to happen we ideally want Houston tying or beating our record. That means we travel probably to Indy or maybe Jacksonville in the wildcard round. That's a preferable outcome to traveling to Baltimore IMO.

[LEBills]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Im willing to go with the numbers. My playing with the playoff machine it felt dicier than that. I ran about 5 versions the other night we made it twice and missed 3 times with just wins v CLE and NYJ. 

yea per New York Times if we just win the Browns and Jets games we have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If we win just one more game than that, our odds go up to 77% or more depending on the opponent. 

 

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

One bonus I just thought of to Houston winning - we ideally want to be the 6 seed if we're assuming Baltimore wins the AFCN. For that to happen we ideally want Houston tying or beating our record. That means we travel probably to Indy or maybe Jacksonville in the wildcard round. That's a preferable outcome to traveling to Baltimore IMO.

Honestly, I could see a Chiefs at Bills, or Bills at Ravens AFCCG. It’s still an “I have to see it to believe it” scenario that Bo Nix, CJ Stroud/TLaw/Indiana Jones, Drake Maye could beat an Allen, Mahomes or Lamar in a single elimination game.

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, LEBills said:

yea per New York Times if we just win the Browns and Jets games we have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If we win just one more game than that, our odds go up to 77% or more depending on the opponent. 

 

 

Yep THAT is more in line with what the playoff machine gives me.

 

11-6 we almost never miss. 10-7 is 50/50. It is dicey.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Im willing to go with the numbers. My playing with the playoff machine it felt dicier than that. I ran about 5 versions the other night we made it twice and missed 3 times with just wins v CLE and NYJ. 

I think it’s 75% ish getting in with 10 the way you’re thinking of it.  It’s 90+% chance if you give us the browns and jets games and leave the other three up in the air which isn’t quite the same thing because probabilistically we’d probably be expected to win one of those other 3 if they’re left blank 

Edited 39 minutes ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

yea per New York Times if we just win the Browns and Jets games we have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If we win just one more game than that, our odds go up to 77% or more depending on the 

That’s interesting I’m getting 76% when I do just the jets and browns wins and all losses for the rest. I gave us Philly because I figure an nfc win is the least impactful and it goes up to 99% with 11 wins 

 

do you have wins filled in for other teams too?  The probability of 10 wins getting us in is hard to conceptualize right now haha but 77% for 11 wins seems wayyyy too low to me..  it’s nearly impossible to get three other wildcard competitors to 11 wins with how many games they have against eachother and on top of that there’s also the angle where the Texans win the division if they get 11 

Edited 30 minutes ago by Generic_Bills_Fan