Polymarket turns Head Coaches into Investment Opportunities for the Common Man

[Walking Tall]

2 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

not a snowball’s chance in hell he’s fired after this season… even if we lose out (which we won’t).

Only one way that happens. #17 voices displeasure to Beane or Pegula.

[Allen2Moulds]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I believe they are a package deal. If you get rid of one, may as well start fresh.

 

As far as GMs go, I would do a deep dive of the Rams FO staff. They seem to have the drafting thing down and do well with bringing on impactful FAs. They also find decent UDFAs and know when to let a vet walk (like Rapp).

 

Head Coaches, I know this will be unpopular, but I still like Bobby Slowik. And I know this is going to be super unpopular...but I give Matt Nagy a look. The guy made the playoffs TWICE with Trubisky as his starting QB. He's went back under Reid. I think he's a guy that could do well in a second try. 

I like the idea of targeting the Rams organization.

As for Slowik, he's at the very bottom of the list for me. 

It turns out that he's a fraud, or at least he was, aa the Texans OC.

 

Going into year 2, Chris Simms on his unbuttoned podcast, basically said that this guy's knowledge consisted of knowing a playbook, but not an actual offense. He further said, now that teams have a year of film, he was curious how he would do year 2. If you don't know the actual rules of an offense, how are you going to get answers. As we all know, he got fired about 1/2 way through year 2.

Slowik was under Shanahan in SF, who is close friends with Simms. This to me says a lot, about how they feel about him as a coach. 

 

Ironically enough, I'm starting to feel that way about Brady, running almost the same plays as last year's, and not having in game answers or counters for things.

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I like the idea of targeting the Rams organization.

As for Slowik, he's at the very bottom of the list for me. 

It turns out that he's a fraud, or at least he was, aa the Texans OC.

 

Going into year 2, Chris Simms on his unbuttoned podcast, basically said that this guy's knowledge consisted of knowing a playbook, but not an actual offense. He further said, now that teams have a year of film, he was curious how he would do year 2. If you don't know the actual rules of an offense, how are you going to get answers. As we all know, he got fired about 1/2 way through year 2.

Slowik was under Shanahan in SF, who is close friends with Simms. This to me says a lot, about how they feel about him as a coach. 

 

Ironically enough, I'm starting to feel that way about Brady, running almost the same plays as last year's, and not having in game answers or counters for things.

Fair point on Slowik. And possibly telling no one else picked him as an OC.

 

It does seem that this year CJ Stroud regressed even more as did their offense. My biggest hope is that in the event Joe Brady isn't here next year is that the Bills look outside and not promote from within. Ronald Curry doesn't really spark hope. 

[Shortchaz]

Gambling is cool

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Interesting thing about this is McDermott has the second best odds of any coach on poly market. 

Such an easy money bet to bet against that lol idk who sets these things initially 

 

any reputable bookmaker offering odds on next coach fired mcd is not even in the picture…Raheem Morris is the overwhelming favorite then Zac Taylor is second at like +150 …goes all the way down to Kellen Moore at +1400 with no mention of mcd 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Any list where your coach is bracketed by Carroll and Gannon probably isn't a good thing 

There’s some actual sportsbooks that offer this bet and while they vary wildly mcd is never even offered as an option lol in reality he’d be in the +3000 type territory if they listed him I think.   not sure what polymarket is smoking here…I’d imagine they set the bets to like 50/50 initially and there’s not enough people betting on this to actually use this as a predictor of anything 

Edited 2 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[wppete]

 

[Buffalo716]

6 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Such an easy money bet to bet against that lol idk who sets these things initially 

 

any reputable bookmaker offering odds on next coach fired mcd is not even in the picture…Raheem Morris is the overwhelming favorite then Zac Taylor is second at like +150 …goes all the way down to Kellen Moore at +1400 with no mention of mcd 

I'm pretty sure poly market is set by the bets 

 

Not odds by oddsmakers .... So it's more fan opinion versus bookie opinion

 

 

1 minute ago, wppete said:

 

Their market is not set by Vegas odds 

 

It's literally everybody on poly market who have their opinion.. and they bet their opinion 

 

Las Vegas had Harris as the favorite to win running up to the election.. poly market had Trump because their market was heavily betting Trump which made him the favorite on their site 

 

So its public opinion not the opinion of sharks

[VaMilBill]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

not a snowball’s chance in hell he’s fired after this season… even if we lose out (which we won’t).

I agree on McD not being fired. But I can see Beane getting canned. This roster is old, injury prone and has not emerging stars on it…maybe deone Walker 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

54 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I'm pretty sure poly market is set by the bets 

 

Not odds by oddsmakers .... So it's more fan opinion versus bookie opinion

 

 

Their market is not set by Vegas odds 

 

It's literally everybody on poly market who have their opinion.. and they bet their opinion 

 

Las Vegas had Harris as the favorite to win running up to the election.. poly market had Trump because their market was heavily betting Trump which made him the favorite on their site 

 

So its public opinion not the opinion of sharks

Oh yea that’s kind of what I was getting at with the overall point…polymarket isn’t grounded in the real world at all so mcd showing up there means absolutely nothing.  I was questioning how it got set initially though like it really doesn’t even make sense for it to be driven entirely on the bets to be at 50/50 ish right now.   theres a ton of bills fans that know he’s not getting fired this offseason and the 31 other fan bases gotta think he won’t be fired also 😂 not sure if maybe it opens close to 50/50 then it’s all driven by the bets? 
 

I think you’re buying shares in yes or no and get matched up with people that bet the other side so polymarket just wants action either way to collect fees and just nobody is betting on these next coach fired things lol this is such a weird example though because mcd getting fired is comically unlikely…what happens if everyone bets no and nobody takes the yes side at all even as they adjust the price down to like a cent for yes (which still might be too high) 
 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[strive_for_five_guy]

The volume on this market is literally $1,400 right now.  Aka there’s pretty much no one actually betting on this.  And with the current payouts, one could literally load up on “No” bets and win money, because only one of those coaches would actually be the next one fired.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

The volume on this market is literally $1,400 right now.  Aka there’s pretty much no one actually betting on this.  And with the current payouts, one could literally load up on “No” bets and win money, because only one of those coaches would actually be the next one fired.

Yea that’s what I figured lol it just does not compute at all even to be entirely bet driven unless the volume was pretty much non existent…I feel like this bet is gonna straight up break the polymarket model haha