Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Another elbow injury?  I knew of the hand,but not elbow again.  Is it time he just gets it fixed before it fully tears on him?

No.  He was dealing with that in 2023 I believe.  I think it was fine last year.

[T.E.]

I am someone who wasn't particularly charmed by his opening press conference like most people seemingly were. He seemed like a total space cadet.

 

That being said, he made enough plays his rookie year to make me bullish on his future. Let's give this guy a chance before we start burying him.

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

So... yeah.

The deep middle argument is nonsense. But if you don't know the context of the stats you're seeing, you may think its something wrong with Josh.

it's not.

So, with the game on the line in the most important moment in the season they think, "Hey, let's attack the part of the field where we've been awful at."  The Bills again were the only team that didn't complete a pass of more than 20 air yards in the regular season (0-15) and was one of four in the postseason (touchdown to Kincaid against Steelers).

[Buffalo716]

7 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

So, with the game on the line in the most important moment in the season they think, "Hey, let's attack the part of the field where we've been awful at."  The Bills again were the only team that didn't complete a pass of more than 20 air yards in the regular season (0-15) and was one of four in the postseason (touchdown to Kincaid against Steelers).

Did you just say the bills and Josh Allen did not complete a 20-yard air completion all season? 

 

They certainly did

 

One quadrant of the field is different than not completing a pass 20 plus yards down field technically

Edited 21 hours ago by Buffalo716

[Doc Brown]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Did you just say the bills and Josh Allen did not complete a 20-yard air completion all season? 

 

They certainly did

Air yards to the middle of the field past 20 yards.  He was 0 for 15 in the regular season.

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

So, with the game on the line in the most important moment in the season they think, "Hey, let's attack the part of the field where we've been awful at."  

 

Wow, you really didn’t understand that post you just quoted.

 

We are *not* awful at throwing to the middle of the field. As that post shows in detail, the middle of the field stats look bad for most great offenses because:

 

1) Cover 2 forces you to throw elsewhere

2) The few times (literally about 10 times per season on average) we throw there, it’s often a deep throwaway or hail mary.

 

It’s not that teams can’t throw there. It’s that, most of the time, the defense takes that middle away. But if they don’t, you definitely want to take it - especially in the endzone.

 

Long story short: Youre making a faulty comparison. You’re thinking “bad stats = bad at throwing there”. But that’s not the case in this situation.

 

 

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

Air yards to the middle of the field past 20 yards.  He was 0 for 15 in the regular season.

Well that's maybe something you should add to the Post 

 

Because he had passes that were 20 yards downfield completed every year of his career and a good amount of them

 

I don't think the post I quoted from you specifically said your metric 

Edited 21 hours ago by Buffalo716

[Doc Brown]

Just now, Einstein said:

Long story short: Youre making a faulty comparison. You’re thinking “bad stats = bad at throwing there”. But that’s not the case in this situation.

No.  I'm thinking don't call a play there where you've had no success all season. 

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

Well that's maybe something you should add to the Post 

 

Because he had passes that were 20 yards downfield completed every year of his career and a good amount of them

 

I don't think the post I quoted from you specifically said your metric 

I should've but we've been back and forth all fricken day today quoting that metric on this thread.

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

No.  I'm thinking don't call a play there where you've had no success all season. 

I should've but we've been back and forth all fricken day today quoting that metric on this thread.

Your good bud I just went to last page

Edited 21 hours ago by Buffalo716

[Einstein]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

No.  I'm thinking don't call a play there where you've had no success all season. 

 

 

That logic would make sense if our struggles came from just being bad at running it. 

 

But if the real reason we struggled was because defenses were taking that area away — and now you’re in a game where the defense is leaving that area wide open…

 

Then you absolutely take it.

[SoonerBillsFan]

11 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

So, with the game on the line in the most important moment in the season they think, "Hey, let's attack the part of the field where we've been awful at."  The Bills again were the only team that didn't complete a pass of more than 20 air yards in the regular season (0-15) and was one of four in the postseason (touchdown to Kincaid against Steelers).

In the most important game KC brought a blitz on us that they haven't put on film.

 

I get you cant stand Allen and bash him at every opportunity, but stop reaching to do so.

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I get you cant stand Allen and bash him at every opportunity

 

This is what it comes down to.

For both Doc and Bill.

[SoonerBillsFan]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

This is what it comes down to.

For both Doc and Bill.

It's past obvious at this point.

[Doc Brown]

12 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

In the most important game KC brought a blitz on us that they haven't put on film.

 

I get you cant stand Allen and bash him at every opportunity, but stop reaching to do so.

Wait.  What?  How do you put any of that on Allen?  He threw an incredible pass falling backwards and Kincaid just dropped it.  

[Bockeye]

So, 2nd Rd pick, 2nd year with team - 800yds 6 TD’s??? Is that good?  
 

Whats your metric on Coleman since a lot of you have written him off?

[Doc Brown]

46 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Bro I know reading isn't exactly your strong suit but that was kind of an entirely different season of football from the one being discussed

It's a long off-season and you tend to fight over minute things that have long been debated on here ad nauseam.  I look forward to rehashing whether the 2019 offense or defense was more responsible for blowing the lead in the Texans WC playoff game tomorrow.

[BADOLBILZ]

18 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He was worst in the league.  I'm sorry if this inconvenient stat contradicts your argument.

 

 

 

 

C'mon now @Einstein

 

2nd and 9 was simply one of the worst play calls in Buffalo Bills history.

 

Damned if it worked and Damned if it didn't.

 

The Chiefs offense is AVERAGING 8 yards per play at this point........and Brady wants to give them the ball back with 2 minutes left so they can casually walk down the field.....playing 4 down offense this time.......and win the game instead of running out the clock and pushing an exhausted Chiefs defense over the goal line?

 

The Chiefs defense has been on the field for almost 40 minutes and their tongues are hanging out.  

 

There was no logical reason to go to a one-read,  30+ air yard TD throw in the middle to a downfield receiver like Diggs........let alone a small catch radius slot receiver. 

 

Your offense has gotten to this position by averaging less than 5 yards per play all game.   You've even failed to connect on a long throw earlier in this drive.

 

Why even let their defense off the hook with some low % bullsh!t?

 

It's brutally obvious........keep taking the underneath stuff and make them tackle their way out of this dilemma.

 

Run the clock out,  take their soul and escape with a Parcells/Belichick style win.

 

But no.   Allen and Brady had other plans.  

 

Allen would have been getting lauded for leaving the field with the lead like in 13 seconds except this time he ACTUALLY left too much time on the clock.

 

Brady would have been interviewing for HC jobs with his last play call having been a long TD pass and 40 minutes of possession against the eventual champs.

 

 

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Bockeye said:

So, 2nd Rd pick, 2nd year with team - 800yds 6 TD’s??? Is that good?  
 

Whats your metric on Coleman since a lot of you have written him off?

 

First off......we need to stop looking at him as some modest second round pick.  

 

In making the trade-backs the Bills were saying that they would have been fine picking him at 28.

 

And the lower the bulk numbers are then how he gets those numbers will be more important.

 

If Coleman has a Gabe-like one-off 200+ yard game against the Saints.........but otherwise averages a paltry 37 yards per game the rest of the season..........then 800 yards is likely going to be seen as a failure.

 

They need him to be consistent and come up big against the likes of Baltimore, KC, Philly etc..

 

I like Coleman's ceiling more than some but at some point either in 2025 or 2026 they need him to be producing at least at WR1 level to make the pick a real success story.

 

That said,  about half of first round picks fail to be seen as worthy of a 5th year extension so the potential for failure late in round 1 or early round 2 is inherently pretty high.

 

That doesn't really alter fan or organizational expectations much though.   You are never going to presume that a near 50% hit/miss rate applies to you.

[NewEra]

15 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

This is what it comes down to.

For both Doc and Bill.

Can’t voucher for Billl, but that isn’t the case with @Doc Brown

 

pretty obvious 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Can’t voucher for Billl, but that isn’t the case with @Doc Brown

 

pretty obvious 

Appreciate that as I was just talking basic strategy at one particular moment of that game in a high leverage moment.  That stuff always fascinates me.  I didn't expect an "I must hate Allen" conclusion.  We all know that Allen turned us into an NFL after thought into perennial Super Bowl contenders.