interesting WR scenario posed by a friend

[nosejob]

18 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

29” arms — very short for nfl receivers. Diggs is 31.25.

Does catch rate matter in this?

[BADOLBILZ]

18 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

29” arms — very short for nfl receivers. Diggs is 31.25.

 

 

Yeah I think Joe Marino listed off the most successful WR to ever measure under 30" arm length and the top of the list was Hunter Renfrow.   I mean, Shakir finding sustained success would be a real outlier........but we saw the path to it last year.........as a RAC guy against deep set secondaries.........so it seems likely now, even.   Renfrow had 3 good seasons(one really outstanding one) and fell off a cliff.   I wouldn't be surprised if Shakir ended up the GOAT of T-Rex armed WR's.    He is a bigger/better athlete.    And the list of successful WR's with 30" arms isn't a lot longer, fwiw.   Arm length has proven to be very important.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

Does catch rate matter in this?

 

Catch rate matters, but the issue is getting a release against a DB with longer arms and then handfighting all the way down the sideline, arm length matters in order to hold the defender off and achieve that catch rate.  It can be compensated to some extent with technique and strength, but in the NFL on the best teams, the best DBs have great technique and work out, too.

The point some are making is that Shakir found success filling a specific role in the Bills offense.  Now people are projecting he could change roles to playing more on the boundary, which may require a body type he just doesn't have, and increase his catches/yards by like, 50%.  

 

IIRC, Beasley wanted a chance to play more outside when he came to the Bills, and they tried that some in 2019 and it really just didn't work.

 

It's a common thing here, we have a player who finds success in one role on the team (LT say), and fans immediately want to put him in a different role and argue he'll surely be just as good or even better, there.

 

44 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Yeah I think Joe Marino listed off the most successful WR to ever measure under 30" arm length and the top of the list was Hunter Renfrow.   I mean, Shakir finding sustained success would be a real outlier........but we saw the path to it last year.........as a RAC guy against deep set secondaries.........so it seems likely now, even.   Renfrow had 3 good seasons(one really outstanding one) and fell off a cliff.   I wouldn't be surprised if Shakir ended up the GOAT of T-Rex armed WR's.    He is a bigger/better athlete.    And the list of successful WR's with 30" arms isn't a lot longer, fwiw.   Arm length has proven to be very important.

 

Agree on Shakir being a bigger, better athlete.

 

Question on Renfrow: did he fall off a cliff, or did Josh McDaniel taking over as Raiders HC and the arrival of Davante Adams push him off? 

His best year was under Gruden/Olsen as OC when he got 128 targets and led the team in receiving yards.  Once Davante Adams showed up and commanded 180 targets, everyone else got scraps.  Then we saw Derek Carr shipped out in favor of Jimmy "Italian word for Made of Glass" Garappolo and Aiden O'Connell, which surely didn't help. 

Anyway, we had a front row seat to McDaniel's 'enshitification' of an offense, QB and WR who had looked competent the previous season, so I wonder about that - but I don't watch or follow the Raiders, so I don't know.

 

If Renfrow played mostly from the slot and made his living as an RAC guy, then he's not likely part of the answer for the Bills, anyway.  I just thought he seemed like a good player in the glimpses I saw, so I hope he finds a good home.

 

Curtis Samuel, FWIW, has 31 1/4" arms.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10 by Beck Water

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Catch rate matters, but the issue is getting a release against a DB with longer arms and then handfighting all the way down the sideline, arm length matters in order to hold the defender off and achieve that catch rate.  It can be compensated to some extent with technique and strength, but in the NFL on the best teams, the best DBs have great technique and work out, too.

The point some are making is that Shakir found success filling a specific role in the Bills offense.  Now people are projecting he could change roles to playing more on the boundary, which may require a body type he just doesn't have, and increase his catches/yards by like, 50%.  

 

IIRC, Beasley wanted a chance to play more outside when he came to the Bills, and they tried that some in 2019 and it really just didn't work.

 

It's a common thing here, we have a player who finds success in one role on the team (LT say), and fans immediately want to put him in a different role and argue he'll surely be just as good or even better, there.

 

 

Agree on Shakir being a bigger, better athlete.

 

Question on Renfrow: did he fall off a cliff, or did Josh McDaniel taking over as Raiders HC and the arrival of Davante Adams push him off? 

His best year was under Gruden/Olsen as OC when he got 128 targets and led the team in receiving yards.  Once Davante Adams showed up and commanded 180 targets, everyone else got scraps.  Then we saw Derek Carr shipped out in favor of Jimmy "Italian word for Made of Glass" Garappolo and Aiden O'Connell, which surely didn't help. 

Anyway, we had a front row seat to McDaniel's 'enshitification' of an offense, QB and WR who had looked competent the previous season, so I wonder about that - but I don't watch or follow the Raiders, so I don't know.

 

If Renfrow played mostly from the slot and made his living as an RAC guy, then he's not likely part of the answer for the Bills, anyway.  I just thought he seemed like a good player in the glimpses I saw, so I hope he finds a good home.

 

Curtis Samuel, FWIW, has 31 1/4" arms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I just presume Renfrow is washed.   He might not be but two consecutive Isaiah McKenzie-esque seasons from a slot-only receiver should make him a non-option for a team loaded with guys who are best in the slot.

[Beck Water]

12 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Regarding 2021, in what world is Amon-Ra St. Brown better than Ja’marr Chase? I ask because it surely ain’t earth, and it’s not really debatable.

 

I transparently explained the methodology I used in my OP post: pro-football-reference wAV.  It's not perfect, but it's reasonably objective.
 

I understand your viewpoint, but by objective measurables they may be closer than you believe at this point.  St Brown has been available for a few more games, which is factored in; he has more targets, more receptions, a higher catch % (73 vs 66), more 1D, the same # of all-pro selections.  Chase has 8 more TDs, 129 more receiving yards, higher Y/R, and more playoff games (6 vs 3)

wAV is 35 for St Brown, 33 for Chase.

So yeah, you may disagree, but it certainly seems debateable.  All honesty, I think there's a bit of "halo effect" because Chase had an All-World rookie year and then two very good seasons, while St Brown had a Rashee Rice-like rookie year, a very good second year, and an All-World 3rd season.

 

 

Edited April 11 by Beck Water

[dave mcbride]

51 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I transparently explained the methodology I used in my OP post: pro-football-reference wAV.  It's not perfect, but it's reasonably objective.
 

I understand your viewpoint, but by objective measurables they may be closer than you believe at this point.  St Brown has been available for a few more games, which is factored in; he has more targets, more receptions, a higher catch % (73 vs 66), more 1D, the same # of all-pro selections.  Chase has 8 more TDs, 129 more receiving yards, higher Y/R, and more playoff games (6 vs 3)

wAV is 35 for St Brown, 33 for Chase.

So yeah, you may disagree, but it certainly seems debateable.  All honesty, I think there's a bit of "halo effect" because Chase had an All-World rookie year and then two very good seasons, while St Brown had a Rashee Rice-like rookie year, a very good second year, and an All-World 3rd season.

 

 

I get this, but it’s more of “watch the actual games” thing for me. Chase is uncoverable and outside of Tyreek Hill the most dangerous receiver in the league. He draws the best cover people and still shreds teams. And his stats weee depressed this year by having an inferior QB throwing to him for most of the season, whether it was an injured Burrow or a backup. I feel extremely confident in saying that there is not one GM, head coach, or OC in the league who would choose St. Brown over Chase.

[97bills]

On 4/8/2024 at 9:33 AM, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I'm a big supporter of the double dip for WR with this great crew coming from college. I also believe that combining the draft pick WRs (bigger, physical, speed guys) with the crew we have will have a dynamic impact on the offense. Not worried about Diggs being gone in the least if they do that. Plus, let's face it, we need to outscore teams like KC, we've tried the over investment in D strategy for McDermott and it doesn't work. 

 

EDIT: I don't love the trading for a guy idea and then paying him. We could get 2 studs on rookie deals and go with that.

After watching KC beat the 49ers with a underwhelming receiving core, and let’s not forget how good the 49ers defense was. I think your right about McDermott and the defense, that isn’t going to get it done. 

[Beck Water]

45 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I get this, but it’s more of “watch the actual games” thing for me. Chase is uncoverable and outside of Tyreek Hill the most dangerous receiver in the league. He draws the best cover people and still shreds teams. And his stats weee depressed this year by having an inferior QB throwing to him for most of the season, whether it was an injured Burrow or a backup. I feel extremely confident in saying that there is not one GM, head coach, or OC in the league who would choose St. Brown over Chase.

 

In a way, this encapsulates the argument that "stats are for losers" and why eye ball and shoe sole scouting has its place.

 

I agree that Chase had a lower year this year because of the QBs throwing to him.

But when we add in external factors, St Brown arguably had his stats depressed in 2021 despite having Goff for 14 games, because Anthony Lynn was not a very good OC and because the team as a whole lacked talent. 

Anyway, point is, I understand your POV but my point is, it is debateable to some, and why.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

On 4/8/2024 at 9:43 PM, dave mcbride said:

Why do you argue that? Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr were more productive, put up better numbers at the combine, and come from a program (that Joe Brady made his bones at) that is now basically Wide Receiver U — LSU.

 

When you say Brian Thomas Jr. put up better numbers it was by a small margin... Thomas Jr. ran a 4.33 40, Legette ran a 4.39 40 , Thomas ran a 1.5 10 yard split, Legette ran a 1.54 10 yard split. Thomas had a 38.5" vertical jump plus 10.6 broad jump and Legette had a 40" vertical jump plus a 10.6 broad jump so that to me is apples and oranges. I'm not saying Brian Thomas Jr wont be a solid WR in the NFL but I also feel if you put Legette in the LSU offense and Thomas Jr. in the South Carolina offense we may be talking about Legette where Nabors is but of course there is no way to tell that so my eyeballs see a guy who is in the same dominant mold as D.K. Metcalf. If you don't agree I'm fine with that it's just my opinion and I'm sure there are a bunch on here that have the WR they like and have to have. I wouldn't hate it if we landed Brian Thomas I would just hate it if we traded up and spent more draft picks than we need to.

[djp14150]

On 4/8/2024 at 10:09 AM, dave mcbride said:

In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it:

 

"A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great.

What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career.

Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024

                    Targets          Yards      Yards/Target
Kincaid          110                 800             7.3
Shakir             80                800            10
Samuel           90                750             8.3
All RBs            80                650             8.1 

That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2

For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history.

It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years.

 

All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!"

Aijuk I would bnot trade thst for…

 

just sign him as a UFA if needed. Use thr pick to drsft a WR.