Analysis of How Defenses are Shutting Down Passing Offenses

[Old Coot]

This utube video does a good job of showing how D's are making life difficult for opposing passing O's. It's a bit technical but I think the average fam can follow it.  Toward the end of it counter strageies by O's are discussed.  Enjoy:

 

 

[Flipnmi]

Thanks for sharing, this was excellent!

[SoonerBillsFan]

I say add an old school FB and pound the **** outta them until they get out of that shell.  Go with a 21 base formation, draft FB Jaheim Bell, Florida State and lets do this!  (yeah Im gonna catch hell LOL)

Edited January 31 by SoonerBillsFan

[Bob Jones]

Good watch, but isn’t the current narrative that good offenses can pretty much move the ball down the field at will? This video says that the defenses have the upper hand.

[Blackbeard]

The game of football is cyclical.  

 

Currently defenses are building talent that prevents and shuts down the pass.  Over time, offenses then, in response, start building to run more.  OL upgrades.  RB/FB becomes more important.    Then defenses follow suit.

 

It's cyclical.  Rinse and repeat.

[Shaw66]

That's really good.   It explains why the Bills always seem to leave the flats exposed.   It's what you give up when you play these complex pass defenses.  

 

Interesting that he says one solution is to get your QB under center.  People here have talked about that a lot this season. 

 

I've been interested in a comment or two that I saw somewhere recently that said that the Chiefs and the Niners seem to have the personnel for attacking these schemes.   Neither has the classic stud #1 - in fact, the Chiefs unloaded theirs.   Instead, they come at you with a really good tight end and with three wideouts with decent size, decent speed, good hands, and brains.  Why does that work?   Because unlike in previous eras, when the pass defenses left particular areas exposed for the whole play, these defenses are reacting and adjusting.   The result is that instantaneous openings to attack appear, but then the defenders react and adjust, to close those openings.   The openings are still there, they just aren't there long.  So, you need receivers who can see, actually anticipate, the openings and who have the ability to take advantage.   And that's why you need to put the QB under center, because it's easier to get the ball out quickly to good players on the run.  And that's why Kelce is such a good weapon.   He has size and hands, but his real value is how well he sees the defense and adjusts, and he has a great quarterback who's thinking along with him.  

 

Bills have Diggs, who until this season seemed great at playing that game.  I don't know if he's lost it or he was injured (I'm thinking the latter).   We all were excited this season watching Shakir, and I think it's for exactly this reason.  He has the smarts and the skills to take advantage of instantaneous openings, and Josh clearly was thinking along with him.   

 

Put another way, winning football for the next few years may not depend on getting a Chase or a Lamb or a Jefferson.   It may depend more on getting one or two receivers like an Ayuk or and guys like him.   Why not the real stud receivers?   Because the whole reason these pass defenses were developed was to stop those guys from going for 150 yards on five receptions.  And those defenses are working.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's really good.   It explains why the Bills always seem to leave the flats exposed.   It's what you give up when you play these complex pass defenses.  

 

Interesting that he says one solution is to get your QB under center.  People here have talked about that a lot this season. 

 

I've been interested in a comment or two that I saw somewhere recently that said that the Chiefs and the Niners seem to have the personnel for attacking these schemes.   Neither has the classic stud #1 - in fact, the Chiefs unloaded theirs.   Instead, they come at you with a really good tight end and with three wideouts with decent size, decent speed, good hands, and brains.  Why does that work?   Because unlike in previous eras, when the pass defenses left particular areas exposed for the whole play, these defenses are reacting and adjusting.   The result is that instantaneous openings to attack appear, but then the defenders react and adjust, to close those openings.   The openings are still there, they just aren't there long.  So, you need receivers who can see, actually anticipate, the openings and who have the ability to take advantage.   And that's why you need to put the QB under center, because it's easier to get the ball out quickly to good players on the run.  And that's why Kelce is such a good weapon.   He has size and hands, but his real value is how well he sees the defense and adjusts, and he has a great quarterback who's thinking along with him.  

 

Bills have Diggs, who until this season seemed great at playing that game.  I don't know if he's lost it or he was injured (I'm thinking the latter).   We all were excited this season watching Shakir, and I think it's for exactly this reason.  He has the smarts and the skills to take advantage of instantaneous openings, and Josh clearly was thinking along with him.   

 

Put another way, winning football for the next few years may not depend on getting a Chase or a Lamb or a Jefferson.   It may depend more on getting one or two receivers like an Ayuk or and guys like him.   Why not the real stud receivers?   Because the whole reason these pass defenses were developed was to stop those guys from going for 150 yards on five receptions.  And those defenses are working.  

Niners use a FB in both the Run and pass game. I say get one.  And to your other point, many of us saw, and thought, that everything this year worked better when Josh was under Center. The Run game definitely did.

Edited January 31 by SoonerBillsFan

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Niners use a FB in both the Run and pass game. I say get one.  And to your other point, many of us saw, and thought, that everything this year worked better when Josh was under Center. The Run game definitely did.

This time of year, many of us, myself included are trying to convince ourselves that next season will be better.   Last year at this time, I was saying the season would depend on whether Dorsey emerged as a quality, creative coordinator.   We know how that went.   Well, it's a year later, and to a great extent the 2024 season will depend on whether Brady emerges as a quality, creative coordinator.  

 

And whether the defense gets better. 

[GunnerBill]

This was excellent, thanks. Some of it was stuff I have had explained to me before and I sort of understood but actually the way he describes pattern matching is the best and simplest explanation I have ever heard in terms of the box and the triangle. Pattern matching was a Belichick - Saban development during their time together with the Browns. They basically found they couldn't beat the Steelers playing zone because of the amount of vertical routes the Steelers were running and the speed they had meant the traditional cover 3 - read and react left their defenders too little time to get to the spot. They then tried playing man but they were just out-talented by the Steelers receivers on their DBs. So Saban wanted to mix the zone and man concepts and came up with pattern matching. 

 

One of the most interesting things in the video (and one of the newer things for me) was how the cover 6 takes away crossers. I think we have seen that frustrate the Bills offense some, particularly under Dorsey. They either end up with the crosser bracketed - and Josh has thrown a couple of picks trying to pit balls in between the bracket to his receiver - or with them held up enough clearing the coverage that the QB has to come off that and look elsewhere because his internal clock is sounding. 

 

On defense Bills have been doing the split field coverages pretty much since McDermott has been here. They are the best in the league over his tenure at preventing explosive pass plays. They force teams to throw underneath a lot. While they don't always achieve it the exact ways set out in the video (that I have seen they are not a big pattern matching team - although they do some) the objective is the same. Don't give anything big up, make teams dink and dunk. 

 

It is a definite trend in the NFL the last two years that defenses have fought back. It also explains why everyone is running these quick hitters to the flats so much. One of the things I have liked with Brady so far that is different to Dorsey is how he has used pre-snap motion to re-gain the leverage advantage in the middle of the field on inbreakers and slants - particularly with Shakir - where he almost gets a running start. It isn't novel.... the 9ers and Dolphins do it a ton, but it has generally been the preserve of those Shanahan style WCOs rather than E-P based schemes and the way Joe has managed to mesh that concept in mid-season has been impressive. It is one of the things that gives me real hope for him as permanent OC. 

[27yanks]

Olympic speed WR's, LB's that can cover, Fast and nasty Safety's. 

 

[BuffaloBill]

This is very interesting material.  In the chess game that is the NFL who will create, schematically, route combinations to overcome what defenses are doing?

[hondo in seattle]

Thanks for posting.  Very informational.  I learned something.  

 

I like James Cook.  But I'd like Cookie, too - a brutal Gilchrist-type power back who would run up the gut against these faster but lighter defenses.  

 

Edited January 31 by hondo in seattle

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

That's really good.   It explains why the Bills always seem to leave the flats exposed.   It's what you give up when you play these complex pass defenses.  

 

Interesting that he says one solution is to get your QB under center.  People here have talked about that a lot this season. 

 

I've been interested in a comment or two that I saw somewhere recently that said that the Chiefs and the Niners seem to have the personnel for attacking these schemes.   Neither has the classic stud #1 - in fact, the Chiefs unloaded theirs.   Instead, they come at you with a really good tight end and with three wideouts with decent size, decent speed, good hands, and brains.  Why does that work?   Because unlike in previous eras, when the pass defenses left particular areas exposed for the whole play, these defenses are reacting and adjusting.   The result is that instantaneous openings to attack appear, but then the defenders react and adjust, to close those openings.   The openings are still there, they just aren't there long.  So, you need receivers who can see, actually anticipate, the openings and who have the ability to take advantage.   And that's why you need to put the QB under center, because it's easier to get the ball out quickly to good players on the run.  And that's why Kelce is such a good weapon.   He has size and hands, but his real value is how well he sees the defense and adjusts, and he has a great quarterback who's thinking along with him.  

 

Bills have Diggs, who until this season seemed great at playing that game.  I don't know if he's lost it or he was injured (I'm thinking the latter).   We all were excited this season watching Shakir, and I think it's for exactly this reason.  He has the smarts and the skills to take advantage of instantaneous openings, and Josh clearly was thinking along with him.   

 

Put another way, winning football for the next few years may not depend on getting a Chase or a Lamb or a Jefferson.   It may depend more on getting one or two receivers like an Ayuk or and guys like him.   Why not the real stud receivers?   Because the whole reason these pass defenses were developed was to stop those guys from going for 150 yards on five receptions.  And those defenses are working.  

Ayuik was a first rd I believe.  Added with 2nd rder Samuel.  Better players is always better. The offense just needs to be able to attack the openings a defense provides.  Whether it be the slot, seems, outside, middle third etc.  As currently constructed they are able to most of that.  Allens arm creates unique windows.  Having a bit more juice outside starts putting defenses in difficult spots. 

13 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Thanks for posting.  Very informational.  I learned something.  

 

I like James Cook.  But I'd like Cookie, too - a brutal Gilchrist-type power back who would run up the gut against these faster but lighter defenses.  

 

A late day 2 early day 3 bigger back would be a very good paring.  Pretty much Latavius Murray from 5-7 years ago.  

[Old Coot]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I've been interested in a comment or two that I saw somewhere recently that said that the Chiefs and the Niners seem to have the personnel for attacking these schemes.   Neither has the classic stud #1 - in fact, the Chiefs unloaded theirs.   Instead, they come at you with a really good tight end and with three wideouts with decent size, decent speed, good hands, and brains.  Why does that work?   Because unlike in previous eras, when the pass defenses left particular areas exposed for the whole play, these defenses are reacting and adjusting.   The result is that instantaneous openings to attack appear, but then the defenders react and adjust, to close those openings.   The openings are still there, they just aren't there long.  So, you need receivers who can see, actually anticipate, the openings and who have the ability to take advantage.   And that's why you need to put the QB under center, because it's easier to get the ball out quickly to good players on the run.  And that's why Kelce is such a good weapon.   He has size and hands, but his real value is how well he sees the defense and adjusts, and he has a great quarterback who's thinking along with him. 

A couple of video studies by the tHinking Football guys. The firts shows why Kelce always seems to be open. The second shows how the Chiefs' 1-4 receiver split can beat the split field coverage D in the video I posted to start this thread.

 

 

 

[MJS]

3 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

Good watch, but isn’t the current narrative that good offenses can pretty much move the ball down the field at will? This video says that the defenses have the upper hand.

No, defenses were much better this year. Offenses struggled. The Chiefs struggled all year, and even in the playoffs they still relied on great defense and a running game.

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

Thanks for posting.  Very informational.  I learned something.  

 

I like James Cook.  But I'd like Cookie, too - a brutal Gilchrist-type power back who would run up the gut against these faster but lighter defenses.  

Offenses have countered to using more tight ends and heavier packages, which has in turn led to defenses using more linebackers and heavier personnel. It's always a cat and mouse game. But the best offenses this year used multiple tight ends and running backs. Spread offenses are not in style anymore.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Old Coot said:

A couple of video studies by the tHinking Football guys. The firts shows why Kelce always seems to be open. The second shows how the Chiefs' 1-4 receiver split can beat the split field coverage D in the video I posted to start this thread.

 

 

 

Great stuff!  Thanks.

2 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Ayuik was a first rd I believe.  Added with 2nd rder Samuel.  Better players is always better. The offense just needs to be able to attack the openings a defense provides.  Whether it be the slot, seems, outside, middle third etc.  As currently constructed they are able to most of that.  Allens arm creates unique windows.  Having a bit more juice outside starts putting defenses in difficult spots. 

 

Yeah, those guys are obviously talented.  I didn't mean to imply you can put just anybody out there.   What I was saying is that you don't necessarily need the super studs that so many fans salivate over.   You need guys who can run these option routes intelligently and in sync with the QB.  That takes speed, hands, brains, but it doesn't mean you necessarily have to be all world.   In fact, I think Diggs is one of those guys.   Diggs isn't Lamb, but in a well run offense, Diggs is a real headache.  

[Billsfan4588]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

That's really good.   It explains why the Bills always seem to leave the flats exposed.   It's what you give up when you play these complex pass defenses.  

 

Interesting that he says one solution is to get your QB under center.  People here have talked about that a lot this season. 

 

I've been interested in a comment or two that I saw somewhere recently that said that the Chiefs and the Niners seem to have the personnel for attacking these schemes.   Neither has the classic stud #1 - in fact, the Chiefs unloaded theirs.   Instead, they come at you with a really good tight end and with three wideouts with decent size, decent speed, good hands, and brains.  Why does that work?   Because unlike in previous eras, when the pass defenses left particular areas exposed for the whole play, these defenses are reacting and adjusting.   The result is that instantaneous openings to attack appear, but then the defenders react and adjust, to close those openings.   The openings are still there, they just aren't there long.  So, you need receivers who can see, actually anticipate, the openings and who have the ability to take advantage.   And that's why you need to put the QB under center, because it's easier to get the ball out quickly to good players on the run.  And that's why Kelce is such a good weapon.   He has size and hands, but his real value is how well he sees the defense and adjusts, and he has a great quarterback who's thinking along with him.  

 

Bills have Diggs, who until this season seemed great at playing that game.  I don't know if he's lost it or he was injured (I'm thinking the latter).   We all were excited this season watching Shakir, and I think it's for exactly this reason.  He has the smarts and the skills to take advantage of instantaneous openings, and Josh clearly was thinking along with him.   

 

Put another way, winning football for the next few years may not depend on getting a Chase or a Lamb or a Jefferson.   It may depend more on getting one or two receivers like an Ayuk or and guys like him.   Why not the real stud receivers?   Because the whole reason these pass defenses were developed was to stop those guys from going for 150 yards on five receptions.  And those defenses are working.  

Kincaid.