The Truth About the Bills Run Game

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I think it's going to come down to using the run game wiser... Not necessarily we need to run 50% of the time

 

You have an excellent point that it's not just some sheer # of rush attempts, but the timing and effectiveness

 

You may not intend to imply this, but just to be clear, I was not suggesting that the Bills need to run 50% of the time....explicitly, I pointed out that the current top-10 teams are all over the place in how much they pass vs. run

Edited November 22, 2023 by Beck Water

[Buffalo716]

27 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

You have an excellent point that it's not just some sheer # of rush attempts, but the timing and effectiveness

 

You may not intend to imply this, but just to be clear, I was not suggesting that the Bills need to run 50% of the time....explicitly, I pointed out that the current top-10 teams are all over the place in how much they pass vs. run

I understand what you were implying

 

And balance is key in the NFL and could certainly bring down Allens # a bit 

 

Teams certainly are all over the place 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Matt_In_NH]

I think this is overblown. Most of the complaints are shotgun run at the half yard line which they have done and failed twice.  I stand by my opinion that is a bad call in that situation   It because they can’t get the half yard but because if it is blown up you stand to lose much more. 

[HoofHearted]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I think this is overblown. Most of the complaints are shotgun run at the half yard line which they have done and failed twice.  I stand by my opinion that is a bad call in that situation   It because they can’t get the half yard but because if it is blown up you stand to lose much more. 

If you go through the thread we actually have a higher SR at the 1 out of Gun albeit small sample sizes. Likewise the percentage of plays resulting in a loss or no gain is higher from under center than out of gun.

 

Now that doesn’t mean I’m suggesting always run from gun at the one (as many have pointed out the QB sneak has the highest conversion rate of any play in those scenarios), but there is a lot of misconception about running from gun.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

7 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

The Bills average 7.1 NY/A (pass yards-sack yards lost)/(pass attempts + sacks).  They average 4.4 YPC on rush attempts.

So...in theory, passing is a more efficient way to gain yards which is why explosive and high scoring offenses tend to pass a lot.

 

But...well here, let me see if I can pull some data

 

(click to enlarge)

 

These data are sorted by W, then PF.  % use (pass attempts + rush attempts)

 

We can see that currently, 2 of the top 10 teams rush more than they pass, Ravens and 49ers, with the Eagles close to and the Browns at 50%.  The rest of the teams vary from 55 to 60% passing, with the Bills towards the higher end at 57%.

 

A couple things stand out to me.  One is, the 49ers have the highest NY/A passing of these teams, suggesting that opponents defending the run really opens up the pass game for them.

 

Other than that, the run/pass % are all over the map for this year's top teams, suggesting there's not one "secret sauce", it depends on the skill sets of the players.

 

Overall, I agree with you that the Bills should perhaps be "pounding the rock" a bit more...the question is "how much more?" and the answer is not straightforward.  Obviously, we want enough of a run threat to prevent opposing Ds from pinning their ears back and attacking, but depending on what opponents do, a short passing game can contribute to the same effect.

The standard game in my mind is 40 pass attempts, 20 rushing attempts. 
 

So at most it would be 35 passing attempts, 25 rushing attempts.

 

But thats a lot considering the breakdown would be Cook at 15, Murray at 5-7, and Johnson at 3-5. 
 

[hondo in seattle]

When someone starts proclaiming that they have "The Truth," I usually expect a disappointing case of hubris.  But HH has done his homework (thank you!).

 

But let me ask something...  I've heard Orlovsky and others say that the Bills under Dorsey mostly just used two different run concepts.  Is there some core of truth to this?  

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[HoofHearted]

52 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

When someone starts proclaiming that they have "The Truth," I usually expect a disappointing case of hubris.  But HH has done his homework (thank you!).

 

But let me ask something...  I've heard Orlovsky and others say that the Bills under Dorsey mostly just used two different run concepts.  Is there some core of truth to this?  

 

In total we've run 21 different run concepts. We've majored in 5 of them. Here's the data below for each of those concepts.

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

8 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

In total we've run 21 different run concepts. We've majored in 5 of them. Here's the data below for each of those concepts.

 

How are you categorizing the difference between mid and inside zone? Point of attack/aim point for the rb? DL read? Defensive front?

[Since1981]

I said this a month ago. Telegraphing that 17 would not run was absolutely devastating for O. An army PR says which bridges they’ll skip before the battle?. 17 early targeted run, dictates other D, gets O hyped. Don’t overuse but don’t telegraph not using it.
 

Brady got it. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Since1981

[HoofHearted]

5 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

How are you categorizing the difference between mid and inside zone? Point of attack/aim point for the rb? DL read? Defensive front?

Blocking scheme and point of attack.

[hondo in seattle]

17 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

In total we've run 21 different run concepts. We've majored in 5 of them. Here's the data below for each of those concepts.

 

 

Thanks for the homework.  Impressive research!

 

Your work has made me doubt Orlovsky's credibility as an informed, impartial football guru.  I wonder why he said we only ran two run concepts?  

[HoofHearted]

22 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Thanks for the homework.  Impressive research!

 

Your work has made me doubt Orlovsky's credibility as an informed, impartial football guru.  I wonder why he said we only ran two run concepts?  

I’m sure he doesn’t have time to watch every snap of every game. Tbh he probably has someone who finds clips for him that he can talk about. Unfortunately we’re at a point where clicks and views are what drives our content. I’ve been hard on Cover 1 and their content knowledge but it seems like lately they’ve gotten even more “click baity” with their content.

 

EDIT: To be fair to them I haven’t actually watched any of their content lately. Judging this solely based on their video titles.

Edited November 23, 2023 by HoofHearted

[hondo in seattle]

7 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

I’m sure he doesn’t have time to watch every snap of every game. Tbh he probably has someone who finds clips for him that he can talk about. Unfortunately we’re at a point where clicks and views are what drives our content. I’ve been hard on Cover 1 and their content knowledge but it seems like lately they’ve gotten even more “click baity” with their content.

 

EDIT: To be fair to them I haven’t actually watched any of their content lately. Judging this solely based on their video titles.

 

Are there are any X-and-O analysts that you can recommend as informed and insightful?  

 

When I watch a Bills game, I watch as a fan.  I'll be dimly aware of formations, schemes, etc.  Mostly, I'm just following the ball and either cheering or groaning.  But when the game's over, I like to watch an analyst break down the offense so I better understand what happened and why.  

[HoofHearted]

15 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Are there are any X-and-O analysts that you can recommend as informed and insightful?  

 

When I watch a Bills game, I watch as a fan.  I'll be dimly aware of formations, schemes, etc.  Mostly, I'm just following the ball and either cheering or groaning.  But when the game's over, I like to watch an analyst break down the offense so I better understand what happened and why.  

For Bills specific stuff there’s not a lot out there.

[starrymessenger]

Thanks for this. 
I think that we have all we need to run the ball effectively as far as talent and scheme are concerned. It doesn't make us a running team but a team that can run as part of a balanced attack. The poster concludes that we have not run the ball enough, something that many other posters have said, especially in game day threads as drive after drive gets shut down.

[Franco_92]

There is a lot of "well I never said anything about the shotgun run in general, just that we shouldn't do it at the 1"

 

Those posters may well be telling the truth, but it cannot be denied that there was moaning all over this board about shotgun "draws" and runs in general, not just at the one, and that nobody has fessed up to that in the face of this data haha (similar phenomenon to everyone being at the comeback game and definitely not leaving at halftime), just everyone saving face

 

I'm glad @HoofHearted put in this work. Before the numbers came in I would have bet money on that "dart" play being among our two or three best ones.