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Allen still is fairly significantly better on the Road than at Home. Splits don't lie. Thoughts as to why.


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8 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

 

so let me get this straight.. we are now talking about 1 year. Last year? where Buffalo went 6-3 at home and 5-3 away and you now think out of this new data you give us that weather games at home had NOTHING to do with us maybe winning one more game at home with a small sample size? you keep being you.....

 

EDITED

 

and in your words per title.. we do fairly significantly better on the road? LOL ok...

 

It has nothing to do with wins and losses. I am talking purely from a statistical passing standpoint.

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4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

It has nothing to do with wins and losses. I am talking purely from a statistical passing standpoint.

Stats Matter... WEATHER! 

 

Why are you ignoring weather? But all that is useless if we are WINNING!

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Stats Matter... WEATHER! 

 

Why are you ignoring weather? But all that is useless if we are WINNING!

 

I'm not. The point is that opponents perform relatively better against the Bills when we are at home versus they do when they are in their own stadiums. It's not like the weather is better for the other team when they are playing here. Or are you suggesting that the winds only gust, the rain only pours and the snow only falls when the Bills have the ball on offense?

 

Again, if you can't understand how that explains my point I can't help you. It's simply going over your head.

 

Now...a case could be made that the Bills allow Allen to play his normal game regardless of conditions whereas other teams dial down the offense and focus more on running the ball and shorter safer passes. Meaning the degree of difficulty for the Bills to execute their offense in these type of games is order of magnitudes more difficult than the other teams who don't try and run their normal offense.

 

I could get on board with that and that very well may be the case.

Edited by Big Turk
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2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I'm not. The point is that opponents perform relatively better against the Bills when we are at home versus they do when they are in their own stadiums. It's not like the weather is better for the other team when they are playing here. Or are you suggesting that the winds only gust, the rain only pours and the snow only falls when the Bills have the ball on offense?

 

Again, if you can't understand how that explains my point I can't help you. It's simply going over your head.

You are ignoring the weather. because... if you took out the weather games and added up the percentages between the weather games and non weather games we would both notice there would be a big difference. your ignoring the fact that we have more bad weather games at home as well and again... this is an extremely small sample size. 

 

Wins over stats.. EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK.

If we are winning? who cares?

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23 hours ago, NoSaint said:


I think the OP should be obligated to bring us stats normalized by temperature, precipitation and crowning. 
 

that said, I’d guess that in these small samples it’s less about location and more about other variables. 

Yup. Small sample size coupled with terrible weather = some weak ass evidence to suggest 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

The same terrible weather exists for both teams.

Really? We are talking about the difference between home and away games, right? How many domed stadiums do we have in the nfl? 10 domed/retractable. Did you add that into your weather, or should i say non weather equation?

 

LOL

Edited by PrimeTime101
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3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The same terrible weather exists for both teams.

I haven’t been keeping up with this thread…..so maybe I missed when the conversation changed.  
 

so now the point your trying to make is that opposing QBs are better playing in Buffalo weather than Josh is?  Because that’s the only point you could be trying to make with that claim.  
 

Please explain how that supports the claim that Josh is better on the road than he is at home…..because that’s what your OP entails.  

 

1 minute ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Really? We are talking about the difference between home and away games, right? How many domed stadiums do we have in the nfl? 10 domed/retractable. Did you add that into your weather, or should i say non weather equation?

 

LOL

He’s smoking that good stuff today. I’m gonna bow out before I waste too much time reading this. 

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1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I haven’t been keeping up with this thread…..so maybe I missed when the conversation changed.  
 

so now the point your trying to make is that opposing QBs are better playing in Buffalo weather than Josh is?  Because that’s the only point you could be trying to make with that claim.  
 

Please explain how that supports the claim that Josh is better on the road than he is at home…..because that’s what your OP entails.  

 

He’s smoking that good stuff today. I’m gonna bow out before I waste too much time reading this. 

yea I hear ya.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I haven’t been keeping up with this thread…..so maybe I missed when the conversation changed.  
 

so now the point your trying to make is that opposing QBs are better playing in Buffalo weather than Josh is?  Because that’s the only point you could be trying to make with that claim.  
 

Please explain how that supports the claim that Josh is better on the road than he is at home…..because that’s what your OP entails.  

 

He’s smoking that good stuff today. I’m gonna bow out before I waste too much time reading this. 

 

No...if you look at the statistical breakdown I posted a few posts above, I am saying that teams that come to Buffalo play relatively better against the Bills in Buffalo than they do in their own stadiums.

 

The Bills rank 25th for home QB rating, and 8th for road QB rating. Their difference of 17 is the largest in the NFL. Arizona and KC ironically also have a large variance in favor of road QB rating ranking 1/2 on the road versus 16/17 at home for a differential of 15.

 

The Bills are #1 in the NFL in net passer rater ranking and net passer rating on the road but rank 10th and 5th at home.

Edited by Big Turk
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9 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Really? We are talking about the difference between home and away games, right? How many domed stadiums do we have in the nfl? 10 domed/retractable. Did you add that into your weather, or should i say non weather equation?

 

LOL

 

I'm referring to the games in Buffalo. Are you really that dense? I feel like I am trying to explain it to a 5 year old and I am running out of ways to try and explain it so you can understand.

 

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10 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I'm referring to the games in Buffalo. Are you really that dense? I feel like I am trying to explain it to a 5 year old and I am running out of ways to try and explain it so you can understand.

that is so typical of you. You can't defend your topic so you're insulting me.. bravo

 

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2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

OK...just did a pretty deep dive into this and from what I can see, I don't believe the Bills performance at home passing wise can be explained simply by weather.

 

Methodologies. I took each teams Home and Away Passing stats, their opponent home and away passing stats and then calculated the net difference in rankings(ie, Bills were 25th at home and opponents were 32nd so they are +7 Net) and also in Net QB Rating.

 

So, here are how the Bills finished:

 

Bills at Home QB Rating/Opponent QB Rating Rank: 25/32 for a +7(10th best in NFL--GB led NFL with +28)

Bills on Road QB Rating/Opponent QB Rating Rank: 8/31 for a +23(Best in NFL--CIN was 2nd with +22)

Bills Home Net QB Rating:  +20.7(5th best in NFL--GB/DAL led NFL both with +38.4)

Bills Away Net QB Rating:  +32.7(Best in NFL--NE was 2nd with +24.7)

 

image.thumb.png.3aed0943dc8820298105e8591d819450.png

 

Therefore...it is hard to argue that weather at home is the reason for Allen's relative worse performance there considering opponents perform relatively better on the road against the Bills than than they do in their own stadiums where the Bills rank #1 in for both net difference in QB Rating by rank and also by Net QB Rating. Bills also rank in the bottom third of the league in QB Rating at home which cannot be explained away by only weather.

 

17 teams had a better ranking away versus home with the widest gaps being the Bills at 17 and then Arizona and KC who ranked 16th and 17th at home but 1 and 2 on the road for a gap of 15.

 

 

 

 

QB rating is a fairly flawed stat. It is hardly an end all be all analysis.

 

For example:

 

In the wind game last year vs Patriots Mac Jones finished 2/3 for 19 yards to go with 5 carries for -3 yards. This was good for a QB Rating of 84.0 

 

Josh Allen finished 15/30 for 145 yards and  1 TD to go with 6 carries for 39 yards. This was good for a QB Rating of 75.0

 

QB Rating says Mac was the better QB that night. Is there a single person on the planet that agrees with that? 

 

Next example:

 

Week 17 vs Falcons (a snowy/windy game). 

 

Matt Ryan went 13/23 for 197 yards 0 TD 0 INT and 2 carries for 7 yards. That's a QB Rating of 84.9

 

Josh Allen went 11/26 for 120 yards 0 TD and 3 INTS and 15 carries for 81 yards and 2 TDs. That's a QB rating of 17.0

 

Josh outplayed Matt by a decent margin in that game and the Bills won fairly handily. QB rating says Ryan was nearly 70 points better. 

 

That one outlier of a game with a few fluky INTs tanked Allen's home QB rating. If his 2 rushing TDs that game had been passing TDs instead he would've had the best net QB rating at home. 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The same terrible weather exists for both teams.


I wonder how much the game in Buffalo impacted Mac Jones yards per game on the road last year. 


was that not being able to play on the road, or catastrophic weather?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

I'm referring to the games in Buffalo. Are you really that dense? I feel like I am trying to explain it to a 5 year old and I am running out of ways to try and explain it so you can understand.

 

 

 

It is a legitimate question though difficult to demonstrate with a small sample size and based on the pats playoff game, perhaps he figured it out.

 

You should have realized that you will get flamed even if you even hint at an area where Josh Allen is not absolutely the greatest.   Luckily, Allen does not feel the same way. Every off season, Allen identifies areas where he can improve and works on it.  

 

As an example,  most of the people on the board blame the Bills bad yards-after-catch on Daboll's play-calling and receivers not having enough speed or breaking tackles.   Allen however, takes some of the blame himself and says ball placement is one of the things he will work on this summer.

 

Allen's ability to be willing to be self-critical in a constructive manner is one of the main things that I find remarkable about him.

 

 

Edited by Billy Claude
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