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The peril of ignoring analytics


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I think Coach McD is great and I hope he is our HC for years to come. But he badly stubbed his toe in the biggest game of his HC career because he ignored analytics and reverted to his (natural) conservative form. I am not talking about the field goal decisions, although they were terrible and unsupported by analytics as well. What I am referring to here is the overall strategy he employed in this game.

 

Analytics for years now has consistently demonstrated that the “strategy” of controlling the clock via run game etc so as to keep a great QB on the sidelines is a losing strategy. Not a shred of evidence that it ever works, despite many in the WNY media touting this strategy. Far more troubling is McD playing softest zone, force them to take lots of plays and lots of time to score. Of course, this strategy also keeps your offense on the sideline for a long time. It’s a strategy designed to shorten the game. It’s a strategy that prevents your O from producing a lot of points. 

 

Herein is the monumental failure. Mahomes has lost only 9 games in his career. The average score of the 9 teams that beat him was 36 points. The only way any team has beat him was to outscore him. McD employed the complete opposite of the only strategy that has ever been consistently successful v KC. Look, we would have probably lost anyway, but we did not go down swinging, because our head coach went with his gut, instead of the hard evidence that analytics provides. 

 

 

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I think Coach McD is great and I hope he is our HC for years to come. But he badly stubbed his toe in the biggest game of his HC career because he ignored analytics and reverted to his (natural) conse

We have eyes and have discussed this for a week now, but thanks for making another thread about it!

I don't think he went conservative bc he reverted to his "nature." I think he went conservative and took the points bc he thought the offense wouldn't convert the TD.

4 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I think Coach McD is great and I hope he is our HC for years to come. But he badly stubbed his toe in the biggest game of his HC career because he ignored analytics and reverted to his (natural) conservative form. I am not talking about the field goal decisions, although they were terrible and unsupported by analytics as well. What I am referring to here is the overall strategy he employed in this game.

 

Analytics for years now has consistently demonstrated that the “strategy” of controlling the clock via run game etc so as to keep a great QB on the sidelines is a losing strategy. Not a shred of evidence that it ever works, despite many in the WNY media touting this strategy. Far more troubling is McD playing softest zone, force them to take lots of plays and lots of time to score. Of course, this strategy also keeps your offense on the sideline for a long time. It’s a strategy designed to shorten the game. It’s a strategy that prevents your O from producing a lot of points. 

 

Herein is the monumental failure. Mahomes has lost only 9 games in his career. The average score of the 9 teams that beat him was 36 points. The only way any team has beat him was to outscore him. McD employed the complete opposite of the only strategy that has ever been consistently successful v KC. Look, we would have probably lost anyway, but we did not go down swinging, because our head coach went with his gut, instead of the hard evidence that analytics provides. 

 

 

We have eyes and have discussed this for a week now, but thanks for making another thread about it!

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I don't think he went conservative bc he reverted to his "nature." I think he went conservative and took the points bc he thought the offense wouldn't convert the TD.

Edited by Motorin'
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Went conservative because O was terrible? O marched ball down the field for 3 points on first possession- McD played his soft soft conservative zone from the very first play KC had the ball. What game were u watching? 

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4 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I think Coach McD is great and I hope he is our HC for years to come. But he badly stubbed his toe in the biggest game of his HC career because he ignored analytics and reverted to his (natural) conservative form. I am not talking about the field goal decisions, although they were terrible and unsupported by analytics as well. What I am referring to here is the overall strategy he employed in this game.

 

Analytics for years now has consistently demonstrated that the “strategy” of controlling the clock via run game etc so as to keep a great QB on the sidelines is a losing strategy. Not a shred of evidence that it ever works, despite many in the WNY media touting this strategy. Far more troubling is McD playing softest zone, force them to take lots of plays and lots of time to score. Of course, this strategy also keeps your offense on the sideline for a long time. It’s a strategy designed to shorten the game. It’s a strategy that prevents your O from producing a lot of points. 

 

Herein is the monumental failure. Mahomes has lost only 9 games in his career. The average score of the 9 teams that beat him was 36 points. The only way any team has beat him was to outscore him. McD employed the complete opposite of the only strategy that has ever been consistently successful v KC. Look, we would have probably lost anyway, but we did not go down swinging, because our head coach went with his gut, instead of the hard evidence that analytics provides. 

 

 

In this case you are correct, but without overtly  referencing analytics many of saw and then cringed at the game plan as it unfolded early in the game. 

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5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We have eyes and have discussed this for a week now, but thanks for making another thread about it!

You have to love how concerned some folks are about policing the website to insure there is nothing posted that remotely touches on previous discussions. God forbid anything like the biggest Bills game in decades is continually discussed

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4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

I don't think he went conservative bc he reverted to his "nature." I think he went conservative and took the points bc he thought the offense wouldn't convert the TD.

 

 

I'm not sure why some people think that this was ever either a valid reason or excuse.

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

Went conservative because O was terrible? O marched ball down the field for 3 points on first possession- McD played his soft soft conservative zone from the very first play KC had the ball. What game were u watching? 

The game where JA was so hyper that he was overthrowing receivers, getting hit, RBs could not catch simple passes, the game where the Bills could not run, that game?

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3 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

Went conservative because O was terrible? O marched ball down the field for 3 points on first possession- McD played his soft soft conservative zone from the very first play KC had the ball. What game were u watching? 

 

The game where the Bills were 2 of 8 on 3rd down conversions in the first half. 

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But McD employed that strategy from play one, before any of those things u imagined happened. The very first time KC got the ball McD employed that strategy. Had nothing to do with Allen or offense. 

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Its a feel to a point.  Analytics to a degree got Indy beat.  Questioning Mcdermotts decision on those 4th downs I surely did.  Now a week later I think Buffalo gets stoppped.  Idk if Daboll was f'ed from missing out on being a Head coach or what.  He had 0 feel for what KC did all game.  I dont think he has 2 special plays left in the Ether B/C we didnt go for those 2 plays.  Mcdermott was trying to keep fingertips on the game imo.  Hoping the offense would get hot.  It didnt happen.  

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9 minutes ago, Groin said:

McD went conservative because O was crapping the bed.  Make no mistake about that.


No they came out conservative on defence from the start. That needs to change if they ever want to beat the Chiefs. 

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3 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

You have to love how concerned some folks are about policing the website to insure there is nothing posted that remotely touches on previous discussions. God forbid anything like the biggest Bills game in decades is continually discussed

This could’ve been put in the 273 other threads about the game that are still being discussed.  In fact, I think you wrote something very similar in other threads.  Look at my thread!

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Just now, billspro said:


No they came out conservative on defence from the start. That needs to change if they ever want to beat the Chiefs. 

But I wasn't talking about D, was I?  This was going to be a track meet, and the Bills could not hang on O.  End of story.

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Hey simpleton, you can either employ a strategy where u swing for the fences and try to outscore a high performing offense or employ a conservative strategy, shorten the game and win a low scoring game. Bills chose the strategy that doesn’t work. 

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13 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

I don't think he went conservative bc he reverted to his "nature." I think he went conservative and took the points bc he thought the offense wouldn't convert the TD.

Yet he trusted his defense vs the best offense in the league.....instead of trusting his #1 red zone offense vs the dead last red zone D.  
 

it was a major errrrrrrrrrrrr on his part.

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