Deranged Rhino Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Just saying ... we hear his supporters refer to Trump as the alpha male and (Rush I think) as “Mr Man”, but a lot of his most ardent supporters love to congregate in single-sex groups of men in matching outfits. A Trumpie will not win an argument by calling his opposition a racist or a homophobe. I'm not arguing. I'm pointing out your own homophobia which is rampant now in three posts. You use it as an insult. Because you have hatred in your heart and you've exposed yourself to be everything you claim to be against. You should seek help for your condition, Frank. Not only are you an impulsive liar who argues with himself for hours, you're also very hateful and quick to anger. You have a lot of issues. And it's a joy to expose them to the world while I continue to live rent free inside your empty head. Edited September 30, 2020 by Deranged Rhino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 30, 2020 Author Share Posted September 30, 2020 16 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: The signs of a man who's lost. A man who's been so embarrassed and pummeled on here that all he has left is homophobic insults. And he wonders why he's a clown His hate is clear to see. He's unstable. A known liar. And he can't hang. You are the one losing. Losing BIGLY! 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said: A Trumpie will not win an argument by calling his opposition a racist or a homophobe. Only a lefty would care about something so trivial. I mean, congratulation on cornering the all important "identity politics." That's something that's required when your political ideology is such an abortion historically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-won-debate-first-presidential-biden-trump/ Another solid post-debate poll. This one shows viewers thought Biden "won" by a 48-41 margin. In other words, by exactly the margin (distributing the "tie" or "don't know" responses proportionately) by which Biden leads in the general election polls. Combined with the other one this morning (Vox -- link above) showing a Biden 53 - Trump 39 margin, it's becoming clearer that the first debate changed no one's mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-won-debate-first-presidential-biden-trump/ Another solid post-debate poll. This one shows viewers thought Biden "won" by a 48-41 margin. In other words, by exactly the margin (distributing the "tie" or "don't know" responses proportionately) by which Biden leads in the general election polls. Combined with the other one this morning (Vox -- link above) showing a Biden 53 - Trump 39 margin, it's becoming clearer that the first debate changed no one's mind. CNN Poll: Romney Beat Obama 67-27. ' These polls don't mean jack schitt. Edited September 30, 2020 by IDBillzFan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 minute ago, IDBillzFan said: CNN Poll: Romney Beat Obama 67-27. ' These polls don't mean jack schitt. Not eloquently expressed, but you're probably right. Debate performances rarely change presidential elections. What it does imply is this: as many commenters have noted, this is the most stable election from a polling perspective in modern polling history. It's hard to imagine what could change between now and November 3 that would significantly move either candidate's numbers. The one biggie (I'll admit it) was if Biden came off as feeble and addled. He didn't. Oh, he wasn't like he was MLK moving people with his very words, but he was pretty much the same as he was in the Dem debates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Just now, The Frankish Reich said: Not eloquently expressed, but you're probably right. Debate performances rarely change presidential elections. What it does imply is this: as many commenters have noted, this is the most stable election from a polling perspective in modern polling history. It's hard to imagine what could change between now and November 3 that would significantly move either candidate's numbers. The one biggie (I'll admit it) was if Biden came off as feeble and addled. He didn't. Oh, he wasn't like he was MLK moving people with his very words, but he was pretty much the same as he was in the Dem debates. Trump's biggest mistake last night was interrupting Biden. I'm not smart enough to weigh in on the whole gladiator thing, but there were a few times you could tell Biden -- left to his own thoughts -- would be puking up his tapioca. And Trump let him off. The next potential big thing now...we'll see...is if Biden decides he's not going to stoop to that level of debate any more and cancels the next two debates. That would be suicide, in my little opinion, but otherwise Biden just needs to not go full Biden on video because he and Harris avoiding the media is probably their safest bet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Just now, IDBillzFan said: Trump's biggest mistake last night was interrupting Biden. I'm not smart enough to weigh in on the whole gladiator thing, but there were a few times you could tell Biden -- left to his own thoughts -- would be puking up his tapioca. And Trump let him off. The next potential big thing now...we'll see...is if Biden decides he's not going to stoop to that level of debate any more and cancels the next two debates. That would be suicide, in my little opinion, but otherwise Biden just needs to not go full Biden on video because he and Harris avoiding the media is probably their safest bet right now. I don't see that happening, particularly because he'll think he can go all Bill Clinton touchy-feely in a Town Hall type forum. Plus the Commission on Debates is apparently going to tighten up the interruption rules -- mic kill switch, anyone? I agree with you. I'm no Biden fan, but I really don't want a second Trump term, and I was kind of sweating the first 10-15 minutes. Trump had an excellent, measured prepared response on the SCt question, Biden didn't, and Trump then got aggressive enough with his interruptions to put Biden back on his heels and start looking old and bad. But then Trump managed to step all over his good points (including his zingers) by just keeping up the pugnacious style for too long, Joe held up ok, and it wound up doing no good for Trump and potentially a little harm. That's my honest non-partisan take. My partisan take: Biden killed the "Joe is Senile" meme last night, so Trump just wasted about 9 months of trying to define him. It's not sticking like Crooked Hillary stuck, or Low-Energy Jeb. He hasn't found the weak spot to exploit, so he's reeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 The race between South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison is tied, according to another new poll released Wednesday. Harrison and Graham are tied at 48 percent among likely voters, according to the Quinnipiac University poll. It matches a handful of recent public surveys this month that have shown the two candidates deadlocked as Graham faces the toughest reelection campaign of his career. The contest between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is also very close, despite Trump carrying South Carolina easily four years ago. Trump leads Biden, 48 percent to 47 percent in the poll, which was conducted prior to the presidential debate Tuesday. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/30/south-carolina-elections-quinnipiac-poll-423835 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillStime Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 1 hour ago, BillStime said: Ya know, they were probably telling Trump that in their private meetings with him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 And another one: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-debate-poll/ We know enough now to say that Biden is clearly perceived as the winner of the debate. It didn't move preferences much, if at all, but time is running out for Donald J. Trump ... Biden got higher marks for his performance — and his policies How respondents rated each candidate’s debate performance and their answers on policies PERFORMANCE POLICIES CANDIDATE GOOD POOR GOOD POOR Trump 32.9% 66.2% 39.1% 57.4% Biden 59.7 39.1 56.6 39.2 Only among respondents who said that they had watched some or all of the debate. Debate watchers were pretty decisive in their verdict of last night’s performances: Only about one-third said Trump’s performance was “somewhat good” or “very good,” and 50 percent said it was “very poor.” Biden’s performance was more positively received, with around 60 percent saying they thought he performed well. Respondents gave more mixed grades on how they thought the candidates outlined their policies, but Biden received better marks here, too: Almost 60 percent said they thought his policies were “somewhat good” or “very good,” compared to about 40 percent who said the same for Trump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 Iowa: Trump vs. Biden WHO-TV 13 Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 (edited) Time is running out for The Donald. And Repub Senators are starting to panic. My Colorado Republican Senator, Cory Gardner -- a middle of the roader; I actually voted for him in 2016 -- is pretty much toast. He got himself in a bind, avoiding doing any appearances with Trump or associating himself with the Trump agenda. But Trump doesn't allow that, and he pretty much forced Cory into a joint campaign appearance last year -- it was an implied "Do it or get primaried by a Trumpie." And as soon as he did it, it was over for him. It's also telling that the party is still throwing money at his race instead of cutting losses and trying to save someone else -- there's really nowhere else to apply the money if they're gonna try to keep the Senate. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/biden-lead-looks-firmer-as-midwest-moves-his-way/ The Senate Map 2: Crystal Ball Senate ratings Last week, the Crystal Ball downgraded the prospects of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) — we now rate the four-term Maine senator as an underdog against her Democratic challenger, state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Aside from Collins, the only Republican senator running in a Clinton state this year is Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). Colorado, at least in 2016, voted a couple of points more Democratic than Maine, and Gardner hasn’t had decades to cultivate a personal brand — as Collins has — so we’ve had his race at Leans Democratic since February. The picture for Trump is not good in the Centennial State: as of Wednesday, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight give Biden a clean 51%-41% advantage. As one Republican operative summed up in July, “Jesus Christ himself couldn’t overperform Trump by double digits.” Senate polling since then has born this out: while Gardner generally performs better than Trump, he often lags his Democratic challenger, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), by high single-digits. Last week, the Crystal Ball downgraded the prospects of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) — we now rate the four-term Maine senator as an underdog against her Democratic challenger, state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Aside from Collins, the only Republican senator running in a Clinton state this year is Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). Colorado, at least in 2016, voted a couple of points more Democratic than Maine, and Gardner hasn’t had decades to cultivate a personal brand — as Collins has — so we’ve had his race at Leans Democratic since February. The picture for Trump is not good in the Centennial State: as of Wednesday, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight give Biden a clean 51%-41% advantage. As one Republican operative summed up in July, “Jesus Christ himself couldn’t overperform Trump by double digits.” Senate polling since then has born this out: while Gardner generally performs better than Trump, he often lags his Democratic challenger, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), by high single-digits. Edited October 1, 2020 by The Frankish Reich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 10 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Time is running out for The Donald. And Repub Senators are starting to panic. My Colorado Republican Senator, Cory Gardner -- a middle of the roader; I actually voted for him in 2016 -- is pretty much toast. He got himself in a bind, avoiding doing any appearances with Trump or associating himself with the Trump agenda. But Trump doesn't allow that, and he pretty much forced Cory into a joint campaign appearance last year -- it was an implied "Do it or get primaried by a Trumpie." And as soon as he did it, it was over for him. It's also telling that the party is still throwing money at his race instead of cutting losses and trying to save someone else -- there's really nowhere else to apply the money if they're gonna try to keep the Senate. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/biden-lead-looks-firmer-as-midwest-moves-his-way/ The Senate Map 2: Crystal Ball Senate ratings Last week, the Crystal Ball downgraded the prospects of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) — we now rate the four-term Maine senator as an underdog against her Democratic challenger, state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Aside from Collins, the only Republican senator running in a Clinton state this year is Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). Colorado, at least in 2016, voted a couple of points more Democratic than Maine, and Gardner hasn’t had decades to cultivate a personal brand — as Collins has — so we’ve had his race at Leans Democratic since February. The picture for Trump is not good in the Centennial State: as of Wednesday, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight give Biden a clean 51%-41% advantage. As one Republican operative summed up in July, “Jesus Christ himself couldn’t overperform Trump by double digits.” Senate polling since then has born this out: while Gardner generally performs better than Trump, he often lags his Democratic challenger, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), by high single-digits. Last week, the Crystal Ball downgraded the prospects of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) — we now rate the four-term Maine senator as an underdog against her Democratic challenger, state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Aside from Collins, the only Republican senator running in a Clinton state this year is Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). Colorado, at least in 2016, voted a couple of points more Democratic than Maine, and Gardner hasn’t had decades to cultivate a personal brand — as Collins has — so we’ve had his race at Leans Democratic since February. The picture for Trump is not good in the Centennial State: as of Wednesday, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight give Biden a clean 51%-41% advantage. As one Republican operative summed up in July, “Jesus Christ himself couldn’t overperform Trump by double digits.” Senate polling since then has born this out: while Gardner generally performs better than Trump, he often lags his Democratic challenger, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), by high single-digits. The magically shrinking Republican party 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 1, 2020 Author Share Posted October 1, 2020 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/ Biden hitting magic number of 50% in Pa in many polls 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/following-rocky-debate-biden-takes-lead-over-trump-latest-exclusive-channel-2-poll/LFMKYZZ2C5DVFE3J7HKNK2653U/ Biden leading in GEORGIA 47-45. One month ago it was Trump 47, Biden 40 in the same poll. Basically 100% of undecideds breaking for Biden Within the margin of error, and I don't think he'll win Georgia, but another sign of how devastating that debate was for Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Buffalo Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 At this point I don't the debates matter a whole lot except to reinforce the support for either side's opinion and candidate. Gotta think undecideds at this point are minimal and it is all about GOTV in the final month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 2, 2020 Author Share Posted October 2, 2020 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk* Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 52, Trump 45 Biden +7 New York: Trump vs. Biden Siena* Biden 61, Trump 29 Biden +32 Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly USA Today/Suffolk* Kelly 49, McSally 40 Kelly +9 New Hampshire Senate - Messner vs. Shaheen Emerson Shaheen 55, Messner 40 Shaheen +15 New Hampshire Governor - Sununu vs. Feltes Emerson Sununu 55, Feltes 40 Sununu +15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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