There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[Trump_is_Mentally_fit]

Unlike its Nordic neighbors, Sweden decided early on in the pandemic to forgo lockdown in the hope of achieving broad immunity to the coronavirus. While social distancing was promoted, the government allowed bars, restaurants, salons, gyms and schools to stay open.

Initially, Sweden saw death rates from COVID-19 that were similar to other European nations that had closed down their economies. But now the Scandinavian nation’s daily death toll per 1 million people is 8.71 compared to the United States’ 4.59, according to online publication Our World in Data. Sweden's mortality rate is the highest in Europe.

 

https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/Sweden-herd-immunity-experiment-backfires-covid-15289437.php

 

Sorry if already posted 

[Magox]

This was a blowout number.  Maybe we will get sort of a V recovery?

 

Not sure, but encouraging none the less.

 

 

[Magox]

Also, if this holds this would be another very important economic indicator.  Would signal bullish longer-term trend for the stock market.

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

7 minutes ago, Magox said:

Also, if this holds this would be another very important economic indicator.  Would signal bullish longer-term trend for the stock market.

 

 

Trump is going to be right again. And it was completely predictable. Yet, despite this, he still managed to box the opposition into taking the position that denying freedom is better than supporting it. 
 

 

[Magox]

Just now, Deranged Rhino said:

Trump is going to be right again. And it was completely predictable. Yet, despite this, he still managed to box the opposition into taking the position that denying freedom is better than supporting it. 
 

 

 

It's plausible.  I'm not going to lie, the recovery is starting offer more rapidly than I anticipated.  With that said, my biggest worries wasn't so much the takeoff of the recovery, that I thought would happen.  It's the follow through.  There will be many restaurants and small businesses that will permanently shudder as a result of the lock downs.  They will eventually be replaced but that doesn't happen overnight and in order for the economy to be made whole, that means all those businesses that shut down will have to be revived again in some shape or form.   

 

I know this is an unpopular position on this board, but with interest rates near 0%, it makes a lot of sense for the government to borrow to stimulate the economy.  I'm not a full Keynesian sort of guy, I disagreed with much of it under Obama because I thought the problems the economy had were structural which required structural policy prescriptions.

 

This is not structural, this is a matter of reopening and giving stimulus in targeted manners to get the economy more quickly back to whole.

[Deranged Rhino]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

It's plausible.  I'm not going to lie, the recovery is starting offer more rapidly than I anticipated.  With that said, my biggest worries wasn't so much the takeoff of the recovery, that I thought would happen.  It's the follow through.  There will be many restaurants and small businesses that will permanently shudder as a result of the lock downs.  They will eventually be replaced but that doesn't happen overnight and in order for the economy to be made whole, that means all those businesses that shut down will have to be revived again in some shape or form.   

 

I know this is an unpopular position on this board, but with interest rates near 0%, it makes a lot of sense for the government to borrow to stimulate the economy.  I'm not a full Keynesian sort of guy, I disagreed with much of it under Obama because I thought the problems the economy had were structural which required structural policy prescriptions.

 

This is not structural, this is a matter of reopening and giving stimulus in targeted manners to get the economy more quickly back to whole.

I agree. There was a ton of damage done by the shutdown that won’t bounce back immediately (if ever). No doubt about that. 
 

From what I saw this weekend, the majority of people have turned a corner on the fear element. That was the biggest question mark for me going in, and it seems (though we will see in 2 weeks in terms of outbreaks) like that enemy is on the verge of being toppled. If that holds, the next 6 months are going to be brutal for the fear mongers — almost all of whom are pulling the lever for Biden in the fall. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

In central Florida with over 5 million residents we just had our 200th death from Corona. I will not blast politicians for the initial shut down but at this point everyone except for high density cities should be reopened and trying to make up for lost time.

2 hours ago, Tiberius said:

Unlike its Nordic neighbors, Sweden decided early on in the pandemic to forgo lockdown in the hope of achieving broad immunity to the coronavirus. While social distancing was promoted, the government allowed bars, restaurants, salons, gyms and schools to stay open.

Initially, Sweden saw death rates from COVID-19 that were similar to other European nations that had closed down their economies. But now the Scandinavian nation’s daily death toll per 1 million people is 8.71 compared to the United States’ 4.59, according to online publication Our World in Data. Sweden's mortality rate is the highest in Europe.

 

https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/Sweden-herd-immunity-experiment-backfires-covid-15289437.php

 

Sorry if already posted 

The experiment is not complete by any standard- we will only have an answer about it in about 18 more months and I will wait to see. The earliest we could make a decision is when the vaccine is ready.

[Magox]

Just now, Deranged Rhino said:

I agree. There was a ton of damage done by the shutdown that won’t bounce back immediately (if ever). No doubt about that. 
 

From what I saw this weekend, the majority of people have turned a corner on the fear element. That was the biggest question mark for me going in, and it seems (though we will see in 2 weeks in terms of outbreaks) like that enemy is on the verge of being toppled. If that holds, the next 6 months are going to be brutal for the fear mongers — almost all of whom are pulling the lever for Biden in the fall. 

 

I'm the head of sales for the company that I work for and we've been pushing out lots of content on Social Media primarily FB and we are currently conducting a poll.  The way they make their vote is via emoji lol.  However, we have provided more options than the polling companies.

 

1) Open up the economy

2) Wait until a vaccine/cure

3) Do what your governor suggests

4) I don't know.

 

When we did this we targeted people who were fans of Donald Trump and FOX news on one side and MSNBC, CNN and Joe Biden on the other side to try to get as even of a mix as possible of audience.

 

And so far we have over 1300 responses and the overwhelming majority of them want to open up.

 

It's not a scientific poll, but the numbers are striking.  And read the comments, it's crazy the amount of people that want to get back to more normalcy.    I have always believed that the polling results of people wanting more caution was a paper tiger.  I think the energy is definitely to get back to work.  As people are learning more about the Virus and seeing it not effect areas where they live, people are understandably rebelling.

 

Here is the polling of our FB thingy to see for yourself. lol  

 

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

It's plausible.  I'm not going to lie, the recovery is starting offer more rapidly than I anticipated.  With that said, my biggest worries wasn't so much the takeoff of the recovery, that I thought would happen.  It's the follow through.  There will be many restaurants and small businesses that will permanently shudder as a result of the lock downs.  They will eventually be replaced but that doesn't happen overnight and in order for the economy to be made whole, that means all those businesses that shut down will have to be revived again in some shape or form.   

 

I know this is an unpopular position on this board, but with interest rates near 0%, it makes a lot of sense for the government to borrow to stimulate the economy.  I'm not a full Keynesian sort of guy, I disagreed with much of it under Obama because I thought the problems the economy had were structural which required structural policy prescriptions.

 

This is not structural, this is a matter of reopening and giving stimulus in targeted manners to get the economy more quickly back to whole.

 

What I would be totally in favor of is the government helping small restaurateurs (say maybe 4 or fewer restaurants with no affiliation to major franchises) put in better HVAC systems to help them maintain "healthier" environments.  These places can't, for the most part, afford those systems & if they can't put in something like that really doubt states will let them fully reopen.  If they have to stay at 50% capacity, they'll all go under even more quickly than usual.  Could see offering very low interest loans or Grant's for other small businesses as well for similar measures.

 

But not in favor of pumping in much more unless it is very targeted.  The 1st 2 CARES Bill's couldn't be targeted because the governments forced the economy to close literally overnight.  They now can create much better legislation (though they likely won't).

 

And the resiliency of the economy will be highly "elastic" (for lack of a better word, maybe resilient fits better?) as to how quickly things reopen.  Stuff that's opening now, especially with the emergency loans that were given out, can hop right back to where it was.  But push this out another month or 2 & places that go bankrupt aren't coming back.

[Deranged Rhino]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I'm the head of sales for the company that I work for and we've been pushing out lots of content on Social Media primarily FB and we are currently conducting a poll.  The way they make their vote is via emoji lol.  However, we have provided more options than the polling companies.

 

1) Open up the economy

2) Wait until a vaccine/cure

3) Do what your governor suggests

4) I don't know.

 

When we did this we targeted people who were fans of Donald Trump and FOX news on one side and MSNBC, CNN and Joe Biden on the other side to try to get as even of a mix as possible of audience.

 

And so far we have over 1300 responses and the overwhelming majority of them want to open up.

 

It's not a scientific poll, but the numbers are striking.  And read the comments, it's crazy the amount of people that want to get back to more normalcy.    I have always believed that the polling results of people wanting more caution was a paper tiger.  I think the energy is definitely to get back to work.  As people are learning more about the Virus and seeing it not effect areas where they live, people are understandably rebelling.

 

Here is the polling of our FB thingy to see for yourself. lol  

 

 

 That's awesome. Thanks for sharing! 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I'm the head of sales for the company that I work for and we've been pushing out lots of content on Social Media primarily FB and we are currently conducting a poll.  The way they make their vote is via emoji lol.  However, we have provided more options than the polling companies.

 

1) Open up the economy

2) Wait until a vaccine/cure

3) Do what your governor suggests

4) I don't know.

 

When we did this we targeted people who were fans of Donald Trump and FOX news on one side and MSNBC, CNN and Joe Biden on the other side to try to get as even of a mix as possible of audience.

 

And so far we have over 1300 responses and the overwhelming majority of them want to open up.

 

It's not a scientific poll, but the numbers are striking.  And read the comments, it's crazy the amount of people that want to get back to more normalcy.    I have always believed that the polling results of people wanting more caution was a paper tiger.  I think the energy is definitely to get back to work.  As people are learning more about the Virus and seeing it not effect areas where they live, people are understandably rebelling.

 

Here is the polling of our FB thingy to see for yourself. lol  

 

 

Unfortunately, don't have a FB account, so can't see any comments or poll results.  But that's a great idea to run the poll that way to get a feel for how your customers are looking at this. 

[dubs]

On 5/24/2020 at 2:04 PM, BillStime said:

Yeah where are they all?

 

these gotcha type memes are very disingenuous. 
 

im not a religious person, but I certainly value an individuals right to spend their time and money as they wish. If a person wants to give their money to these people or their church, at least it’s their own choice. As opposed to confiscation of personal property via government. 
 

and do we know what these people are doing or just their net worth?  What’s the appropriate amount to give that will be “helpful”?  Do we apply this standard to all multi millionaires or just Christian ones?  What’s the minimum amount of net worth to be in this category of shamed?

just some thoughts...

 

[Magox]

Just now, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 That's awesome. Thanks for sharing! 

 

 

We have created a lot of COVID content, I'm not the one writing them but I direct what sort of content to be written.   And the guy who writes the stuff for us is British and I think he has a leftward bent to him.  So when he writes things, often times I see bias in one shape or another.  I'm always like - Just give it straight, no bent.  We aren't trying to change people's minds about anything, we just want to inform them.  Give them the facts and let them make up their own minds. - 

 

And we are driving around 25,000 visitors per week to our blogs.  I thought - let's do a poll. -  I really wanted to do a poll with more proper options to them than what the polling is asking.   We tried to balance out the crowds by selecting Trump/FOX and MSNBC/CNN/Biden.   So I don't think that it's disproportionately going to Trump people.

 

I'm just guessing that they are more motivated to respond.

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, dubs said:

these gotcha type memes are very disingenuous. 
 

im not a religious person, but I certainly value an individuals right to spend their time and money as they wish. If a person wants to give their money to these people or their church, at least it’s their own choice. As opposed to confiscation of personal property via government. 
 

and do we know what these people are doing or just their net worth?  What’s the appropriate amount to give that will be “helpful”?  Do we apply this standard to all multi millionaires or just Christian ones?  What’s the minimum amount of net worth to be in this category of shamed?

just some thoughts...

 

I agree, and I am indeed a devoted Christian. I'm pretty sure that the pastors in this meme didn't TAKE money from their congregations.  There's no cover charge at the door to their Church. And, I have no idea what good work they are doing, or plan to do, with their estate. The Bible is pretty darn clear about judging not lest you be judged.

[3rdnlng]

14 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

It's plausible.  I'm not going to lie, the recovery is starting offer more rapidly than I anticipated.  With that said, my biggest worries wasn't so much the takeoff of the recovery, that I thought would happen.  It's the follow through.  There will be many restaurants and small businesses that will permanently shudder as a result of the lock downs.  They will eventually be replaced but that doesn't happen overnight and in order for the economy to be made whole, that means all those businesses that shut down will have to be revived again in some shape or form.   

 

I know this is an unpopular position on this board, but with interest rates near 0%, it makes a lot of sense for the government to borrow to stimulate the economy.  I'm not a full Keynesian sort of guy, I disagreed with much of it under Obama because I thought the problems the economy had were structural which required structural policy prescriptions.

 

This is not structural, this is a matter of reopening and giving stimulus in targeted manners to get the economy more quickly back to whole.

If we return to the old ways we will quickly recover. I'm not saying that is the best way to go though. If we do change with more people end up working from home then downtown restaurants will be hurt by loss of food and liquor sales while grocery and possibly liquor store sales will increase. In short, the service industry will see some real changes but it might be just a shuffling of the chairs. We will use our vehicles and mass transit differently (most likely less) and save money on fuel and other related items. Suit and tie business might go down while Zubaz Pants might become popular again. Whatever, there will definitely be changes and opportunities. 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

If we return to the old ways we will quickly recover. I'm not saying that is the best way to go though. If we do change with more people end up working from home then downtown restaurants will be hurt by loss of food and liquor sales while grocery and possibly liquor store sales will increase. In short, the service industry will see some real changes but it might be just a shuffling of the chairs. We will use our vehicles and mass transit differently (most likely less) and save money on fuel and other related items. Suit and tie business might go down while Zubaz Pants might become popular again. Whatever, there will definitely be changes and opportunities. 

 

There'll definitely be changes.

 

Mass transit systems (that haven't already) upgraded disinfection of the carriers & sfaions/terminals will have to do so significantly. 

 

We will likely see a greater expansion of suburbs & even rural living as cities are where people will fear to live.

 

It'll be interesting to see if sporting events & concerts end up with a huge shift in how tightly they squeeze people in vs try to get even larger PPV audiences.  Whatever the Bills decide to do for their new home, we'll likely end up with one of the 1st stadiums (either a remodeled Rich/Ralph/NE or less likely a new one) built to the expectations of the new way of doing things for which many of the assumptions will turn out to have been wrong.  (Kind of like how the designers of UB decided that a "riot proof" campus far from the city's population center was the way to build the new campus or how Pilot Field with the cool retro look to it has all the seats facing forward rather than leaning towards home plate.)  So, the errors that get made on that project will be useful to show others what not to do on the following generation of new stadiums/ major remodels.

 

There'll be a bunch of other changes too.

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

There'll definitely be changes.

 

Mass transit systems (that haven't already) upgraded disinfection of the carriers & sfaions/terminals will have to do so significantly. 

 

We will likely see a greater expansion of suburbs & even rural living as cities are where people will fear to live.

 

It'll be interesting to see if sporting events & concerts end up with a huge shift in how tightly they squeeze people in vs try to get even larger PPV audiences.  Whatever the Bills decide to do for their new home, we'll likely end up with one of the 1st stadiums (either a remodeled Rich/Ralph/NE or less likely a new one) built to the expectations of the new way of doing things for which many of the assumptions will turn out to have been wrong.  (Kind of like how the designers of UB decided that a "riot proof" campus far from the city's population center was the way to build the new campus or how Pilot Field with the cool retro look to it has all the seats facing forward rather than leaning towards home plate.)  So, the errors that get made on that project will be useful to show others what not to do on the following generation of new stadiums/ major remodels.

 

There'll be a bunch of other changes too.

You do realize that every single sporting event you have ever attended has occurred in a world that has already lived through dozens of pandemics....right?  The current 'crisis' will not be the end of the world as you've known it, no more than every other over-hyped crisis you've watched and listened to since the advent of Facebook and Twitter.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

18 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

There'll definitely be changes.

 

Mass transit systems (that haven't already) upgraded disinfection of the carriers & sfaions/terminals will have to do so significantly. 

 

We will likely see a greater expansion of suburbs & even rural living as cities are where people will fear to live.

 

It'll be interesting to see if sporting events & concerts end up with a huge shift in how tightly they squeeze people in vs try to get even larger PPV audiences.  Whatever the Bills decide to do for their new home, we'll likely end up with one of the 1st stadiums (either a remodeled Rich/Ralph/NE or less likely a new one) built to the expectations of the new way of doing things for which many of the assumptions will turn out to have been wrong.  (Kind of like how the designers of UB decided that a "riot proof" campus far from the city's population center was the way to build the new campus or how Pilot Field with the cool retro look to it has all the seats facing forward rather than leaning towards home plate.)  So, the errors that get made on that project will be useful to show others what not to do on the following generation of new stadiums/ major remodels.

 

There'll be a bunch of other changes too.

 

...they sure as hell need to be measured and well thought out before jumping unnecessarily......see how the gradual re-openings go by state first....the Memorial Day weekend in Rochester yielded heavy police presence at three block parties of 200+ people each with no much luck in dispersal......and NO social distancing or masks......and they broke up numerous fights at Lake Ontario Beach Park......Chicago's Memorial Day tally was 27 shot with 9 dead.....keep tightening the screws and these occurrences replicate.....

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

On 5/25/2020 at 11:17 AM, B-Man said:

 

 

And in California:

 

 

 

 

 

The "state" in all of it's various iterations does more to snuff out jobs, livelihoods and businesses than the most aggressive corporate raider ever could.  I think it's awesome that they just cross out $100 and make it $1000, as if someone just made this ***** up on the fly.  

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

In central Florida with over 5 million residents we just had our 200th death from Corona. I will not blast politicians for the initial shut down but at this point everyone except for high density cities should be reopened and trying to make up for lost time.

The experiment is not complete by any standard- we will only have an answer about it in about 18 more months and I will wait to see. The earliest we could make a decision is when the vaccine is ready.

It would be tough to blast anyone (state or federal) for the initial shut down.  But from "two weeks to flatten the curve" to "shut down until there is a vaccine" is simply an overplayed hand.  Adding to that the Governor dictators (partly because they can, partly for Uncle Sam dollars, partly to hope it hurts Trump) and most people have had enough. (I can definitely see why NYC-area residents would be fearful though.)

Will opening up spread COVID-19? Quite possibly. It may also lead to herd immunity, which is desirable. It could come back in the fall after heat and humidity have abated. Unfortunately, no one knows for certain right now. We do have better treatments than what was available in January and February, and hopefully the world will be on the way to a vaccine. I do not think we will see another shut down in the fall, however. And the question of whether or not states with shut down again without a Federal shut down, especially if there is no Federal disaster declaration (aid money), will be interesting.

If mail-in-voting can be staved off for this November, the election may tell us whether people will stand for being locked down in the future or not.