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BillsFan4

Buffalo Sabres and NHL: 2019/20 Next game: Thurs. Nov. 14th at 7pm vs Carolina

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3 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

Eh, I get what your saying because he’s only played 1 full season and part of another (this last season was considered his rookie year). But I’d be pretty damn happy with Cirell straight up for Risto. I am a big Cirelli fan though. 

 

He scored 19 goals last season with heavy defensive zone starts and no power play time. He was used as their 2 way shutdown C who faced a lot of the other team’s top competition and was depended on in a lot of late game situations. If Tampa had the lead late in a game, Cirelli was usually out there. 

 

He was also very good in the face off circle, which is something we need. 

all of his advanced stats look good too and it doesn’t appear that he was sheltered looking at QoC and matchups etc. 

 

 

He was already getting Selke votes last season (his first full NHL season). He finished 11th in selke voting (ROR placed 11th in selke voting a couple times before finally winning it this year) and he finished 6th in Calder voting. 

 

He’s only 21 and still on his ELC as well. He would be a perfect fit in Buffalo. He could be our #2 C this year and eventually slide into the #3C role if Mittelstadt or Cozens ever surpass him as the 2C. We would have elite center depth if either player ever passed Cirelli as the 2C, as he was already probably about the best 3C in the NHL last season (his rookie season) or damn close. 

 

 

 

 

I honestly don’t see Tampa trading him anyway. John Cooper LOVES him and uses him in a ton of key situations. Plus He’s still on his entry level contract. They need cost controlled players desperately with Point due for a raise this year and Vasilevski due next year. They have a bunch of guys with NMC too, which will make clearing our cap space harder. 

 

If they did trade him for Risto, I can’t see any scenario where they add a top prospect and a 1st, though. Maybe a pick if we were lucky. But not a prospect on top of that.

 

 

I think they’d probably rather trade someone like Tyler Johnson because it would clear cap space. But he has a no trade clause. 

 

Id take Johnson though. He could be our 2C and is signed to a very reasonable $5M cap hit for 5 more years. The only issue is that he will be 29yrs old before the start of the season. His contract ends at age 33 so that’s not the issue. IMO the issue is that he probably doesn’t fit our long term rebuild window as well as Risto does. But he’d bring some much needed experience and leadership to the team. You can’t ice a entire roster of young guys (well, you can but it’s probably not going to be too successful as we’ve already seen). 

I would want a pick or prospect included with Johnson though (due to his age). 

He’s no longer waiver exempt. So it’s pretty much NHL or bust for Puljujarvi. 

I'd take Cirelli on a one on one deal for Risto. I wouldn't do it for Johnson. I just believe that Cirelli because of his age has so much more upside. If he is playing at a high level now how much more upside is there to tap. I would be willing to trade McCabe and a little more for Johnson but I wouldn't make a deal including Risto for Johnson unless I got back one of those highly prized prospects. 

 

The Sabres have talked to Tampa about deals over the past couple of years. One of the sticking points is that the Lightning are not willing to give up any of their top prospects. That makes sense for them because they are in a tight cap situation they have players in the near pipeline who are ready to move up.  

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4 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

Eh, I get what your saying because he’s only played 1 full season and part of another (this last season was considered his rookie year). But I’d be pretty damn happy with Cirell straight up for Risto. I am a big Cirelli fan though. 

 

...

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree with it.  There are less than 10 RHD in the NHL that score like Risto and he does it on a one line team.  Cirelli (at this moment) isn't a special player, so Tampa would need to supplement the trade with something enticing to make it happen.  It wouldn't have to be their best prospect but rather someone like a Tage Thompson. 

 

The additional first is because they're in our division.  Sorry, I'm not playing against Risto that many times every season and not getting a premium back for him.  I'd rather keep him.

 

I'm also not touching Tyler Johnson.  That's too much money and too many years left for a small dude that's already 29.  I do love his game, however.

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44 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree with it.  There are less than 10 RHD in the NHL that score like Risto and he does it on a one line team.  Cirelli (at this moment) isn't a special player, so Tampa would need to supplement the trade with something enticing to make it happen.  It wouldn't have to be their best prospect but rather someone like a Tage Thompson. 

 

The additional first is because they're in our division.  Sorry, I'm not playing against Risto that many times every season and not getting a premium back for him.  I'd rather keep him.

 

I'm also not touching Tyler Johnson.  That's too much money and too many years left for a small dude that's already 29.  I do love his game, however.

With respect to the highlighted segment you nailed what the issue is for a Cirelli for Risto deal i.e. what is his upside. If you believe that there is an upside (as I do) then you make the deal. If you don't then you don't make the deal. I would make the deal straight up and then believe that this team has the pieces to assemble a credible second line. Addressing the second line is the most important issue facing the organization this offseason. 

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13 minutes ago, JohnC said:

With respect to the highlighted segment you nailed what the issue is for a Cirelli for Risto deal i.e. what is his upside. If you believe that there is an upside (as I do) then you make the deal. If you don't then you don't make the deal. I would make the deal straight up and then believe that this team has the pieces to assemble a credible second line. Addressing the second line is the most important issue facing the organization this offseason. 

No way.  If all you can get at this point is a young,  prospective middle 6 center then you hold the asset until the deadline. 

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8 minutes ago, Alaska Darin said:

No way.  If all you can get at this point is a young,  prospective middle 6 center then you hold the asset until the deadline. 

I understand your well reasoned position. However, I'm with @BillsFan4 on this deal. If Cirelli can be a top three center for the loaded Lightning he would be a solid #2 center with us with the potential to be better in the near future. 

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46 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I understand your well reasoned position. However, I'm with @BillsFan4 on this deal. If Cirelli can be a top three center for the loaded Lightning he would be a solid #2 center with us with the potential to be better in the near future. 

It would be an amazing deal for the Sabres.  TB's beat writer for The Athletic said the Lightning would never do it, so I'm not too keen on the deal happening.  

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27 minutes ago, stony said:

It would be an amazing deal for the Sabres.  TB's beat writer for The Athletic said the Lightning would never do it, so I'm not too keen on the deal happening.  

I agree with your post. The deal wouldn't happen because the Lightning think so much of their young player. If he is good now how good do you think he will be in another year or so? While Cirelli is an untouchable for Tampa, a Cup contending team, Risto, who plays for a lower tiered team, is being shopped.   

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6 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I agree with your post. The deal wouldn't happen because the Lightning think so much of their young player. If he is good now how good do you think he will be in another year or so? While Cirelli is an untouchable for Tampa, a Cup contending team, Risto, who plays for a lower tiered team, is being shopped.   

Always tough to project a young player's future production when going from a protected situation to something like the Sabres.  I'd argue his production would still go up.  He'd see tougher minutes (but more minutes), but would presumably supplement any dropoff in 5 v 5 scoring by some PP time.   I love a young kid with all 5 v 5 production.

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Since we have come to a consensus that Cirelli won't be traded (LOL) let's go to another trade option. For the astute talent scouts on this site would a straight up Nugent-Hopkins trade for Risto be a fair deal? A change of scenery could be invigorating for the both of them who are getting tired of their current situations.  

 

https://www.nhl.com/player/ryan-nugent-hopkins-8476454

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Based on the opinions here Risto's trade value seems to be somewhere in between Gretzky and Andrew Peters.

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Cirelli was very good last season. The biggest thing for me is the sample size. 1 year obviously isn’t much to go off of. He’s not a proven veteran player. And you worry how he’d do with an expanded role. But I don’t really see any red flags. It’d not like he was being sheltered in Tampa. 

 

all of his advanced stats were great even though he was used primarily as their shutdown center with 60% d zone starts against the other team’s top lines. His CF% should have taken a big hit (especially being a rookie) but he was a positive corsi player at 53.7% (which is very good). 

 

 

His takeaway way to giveaway ratio was insane at 46-15. A +31 differential! 

 

 

With Cirelli on the ice, the Lightning registered an expected goals for of 47.9 and an expected goals against of 36.2, a +11.7 differential. 

 

 

All the stats say that he made his teammates better and show that he was a good transition player that could be counted on not to make mistakes in the d zone (and exiting). Pretty much every advanced analytic says that the lightning were a better team with Cirelli on the ice, and the eye test matches up IMO. 

 

There are risks with any trade, but Cirelli seems like a pretty safe bet to me. 

 

Here is a good article outlining Cirelli’s impact last season. It also shows how high Tampa fans and media members are on him (not that it really matters)  -  

 

https://www.rawcharge.com/2019/5/9/18538017/2018-2019-tampa-bay-lightning-player-grades-anthony-cirelli-another-midround-gem

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The contract will slide (for up to 2 years) if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games.  

So the count starts on his 3 year ELC in the 3rd season or whenever he plays more than 9 NHL games in a season. 

 

Id be surprised if he plays more than 9 NHL games this year, especially with the thumb injury. 

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Posted (edited)

 

Finally got the chance to sit down and read this whole article last night, and wow! 

Excellent shift by shift breakdown. It’s amazing how well this kid was playing to start his NHL career. This has me even more excited about the trade! Articles like this are why I subscribe to the Athletic. (Btw, I have a link for 40% off 1yr, if anyone wants it). 

 

Quote

Less than 10 minutes earlier, Jokiharju proved that point. Or maybe he proved that he, too, is something special. With 2:53 left in overtime, Tarasenko corralled a stretch pass at the blue line and started to bull his way toward the net as he’s done countless times in his career. Only this time, a 19-year-old kid was in his way. Jokiharju cut off the rush at the top of the left circle and forced Tarasenko to go to his left, toward the slot. Then he swept his stick from left to right, briefly knocking the puck off Tarasenko’s stick. Tarasenko recovered, but Jokiharju never relented. With Jonathan Toews joining the play, Tarasenko was forced to drop the puck to Vince Dunn, who promptly turned it over, leading directly to Toews’ breakaway and game-winning goal, his third of the game.

 

Quote

Sixth shift, 10:34 of the first period

Jokiharju didn’t see much special-teams time, just catching the tail end of a power play, but he was used heavily during three 4-on-4 stints. In the clip below, watch him keep returning to the front of the net — something the Blackhawks repeatedly failed to do last season. He starts by disrupting Jaden Schwartz and making him backtrack, then returns to the net — challenging the play without losing his positioning. After an aborted rush (he quickly regained his spot after the Blues held the zone), he gets aggressive and trails Brandon Saad in search of a rebound or a drop pass. Aggressive, but not reckless.

 

 

 

It looks like we may have a good one! 

 

He looks to bring a skill set that the Sabres don’t have enough of on defense. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit - there are supposed to be video clips in those quotes. It showed the videos in my post before I posted it, and it shows the videos right now while I am editing this post. But I am not seeing them otherwise. Not sure how to fix it. Was really hoping to be able to share the 2 video clips above. 

Edited by BillsFan4

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12 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

old filter  app all viral now...what you will look like in 60 years  .this is pretty funny

 

https://twitter.com/ScottyMCSS/status/1151230593562226694

 

a little NSFW, so will leave as a link

 

 

Please calm down. Don't start to freak out before the season has started. I see an impacting Risto  and/or McCabe deal being made before the season starts. The GM is smart enough to understand that the owners are getting itchy for results. Trust me, I won't lead you astray. :)

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Just now, JohnC said:

Please calm down. Don't start to freak out before the season has started. I see an impacting Risto  and/or McCabe deal being made before the season starts. The GM is smart enough to understand that the owners are getting itchy for results. Trust me, I won't lead you astray. :)

You told me last January the Sabres would be fighting for a playoff spot till the bitter end, would pass the Canadians for sure by end of season, the GM had assembled a good young roster, you loved the ROR trade and the coach was not going anywhere....and you want me to trust you now?

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Just now, plenzmd1 said:

You told me last January the Sabres would be fighting for a playoff spot till the bitter end, would pass the Canadians for sure by end of season, the GM had assembled a good young roster, you loved the ROR trade and the coach was not going anywhere....and you want me to trust you now?

I am flexible. The situation is fluid. 

 

Let's get the record straight on the ROR deal. From all the information that came out before and soon after it was made clear that he had to be moved. I had no problem with that sentiment, as did you. The GM got what he could. It turned out to be paltry. As I have stated the problem with the deal, especially as time passed, is not that he was dealt but that it was made in desperation which put the GM in a weak position. Compare that to how the Risto situation is being handled? There is no rush, and if a good deal can't be made now it won't be made until a later time. 

 

The ROR trade calculations can't completely be made as of right now. Maybe Tage turns out to be a good second or third line goal scorer? Maybe the lower first round draft pick turns out to be a good defensemen? The GM has made the point (maybe a rationalization) that the Skinner deal would not have been made for cap reasons if ROR wasn't dealt? What is stark obvious is that in the short run the ROR deal was an unmitigated disaster. 

 

Again, don't be so excitable and trust the process. Whether you want to acknowledge it or not this train is moving in the right direction. It may not be fast enough for you. In that case I say: Tough! There is no other way.  

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On 7/14/2019 at 7:19 PM, Alaska Darin said:

I understand what you're saying, I just don't agree with it.  There are less than 10 RHD in the NHL that score like Risto and he does it on a one line team.  Cirelli (at this moment) isn't a special player, so Tampa would need to supplement the trade with something enticing to make it happen.  It wouldn't have to be their best prospect but rather someone like a Tage Thompson. 

 

The additional first is because they're in our division.  Sorry, I'm not playing against Risto that many times every season and not getting a premium back for him.  I'd rather keep him.

 

I'm also not touching Tyler Johnson.  That's too much money and too many years left for a small dude that's already 29.  I do love his game, however.

If you look at the way his contract is built he's not making $5 million per season.  https://www.capfriendly.com/players/tyler-johnson

He's getting 5.5 this year, 3.75 next year, 5.5, 3.75 and 4.75. Not bad money for a second line guy at all if ask me and not an albatross especially with an expansion draft coming in a few years. Cirelli is good and has the dreaded potential which isn't what we need, we need proven guys now that can contribute and to me Johnson be ideal or getting someone like Connor or Zucker and move Reinhart to 2C. 

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1 minute ago, JohnC said:

I am flexible. The situation is fluid. 

 

Let's get the record straight on the ROR deal. From all the information that came out before and soon after it was made clear that he had to be moved. I had no problem with that sentiment, as did you. The GM got what he could. It turned out to be paltry. As I have stated the problem with the deal, especially as time passed, is not that he was dealt but that it was made in desperation which put the GM in a weak position. Compare that to how the Risto situation is being handled? There is no rush, and if a good deal can't be made now it won't be made until a later time. 

 

The ROR trade calculations can't completely be made as of right now. Maybe Tage turns out to be a good second or third line goal scorer? Maybe the lower first round draft pick turns out to be a good defensemen? The GM has made the point (maybe a rationalization) that the Skinner deal would not have been made for cap reasons if ROR wasn't dealt? What is stark obvious is that in the short run the ROR deal was an unmitigated disaster. 

 

Again, don't be so excitable and trust the process. Whether you want to acknowledge it or not this train is moving in the right direction. It may not be fast enough for you. In that case I say: Tough! There is no other way.  

i have never backed away from my take when the deal happened for ROR i was fine with it, still am. He wasn't a fit here, had to go. Happens in sports. I don't view as an unmitigated disaster.

 

That being said, you said trust me, I am  a wise and sage hockey prognosticator. I say if the GM   listened to you on hockey takes, no need to deliberately tank, would just happen naturally😀. As mentioned, you  LOVED what JBotts was doing in January, you liked the roster, you liked the coach, and you thought they had a team that could compete for the last playoff spot...and for sure pass Montreal. And again, this was in late January, not November.

 

At end of season your takes were roster put out there was awful,  that was on JBotts, no way could they compete for a playoff spot with that roster, and yea, maybe the coach sucked as well. And we wont bring up where they ended and where Montreal ended. 

 

(just bustin, but Hot Takes Exposed is a great twitter account too)

 

OTOH, after two nights of the NHL season last year, on this here very board I said Montreal is going to be good and i love the way they play, they will finish ahead of the Sabres, and Housley needed to be fired....hockey genuis I am!!!!!! That was after each played 1 game🤣

 

BTW, I never bought in this roster was last place roster, just as the year before i didn't ....i don't know squat about Freddy coming in, but he just has gots to be better than what we have had last two years

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

i have never backed away from my take when the deal happened for ROR i was fine with it, still am. He wasn't a fit here, had to go. Happens in sports. I don't view as an unmitigated disaster.

 

That being said, you said trust me, I am  a wise and sage hockey prognosticator. I say if the GM   listened to you on hockey takes, no need to deliberately tank, would just happen naturally😀. As mentioned, you  LOVED what JBotts was doing in January, you liked the roster, you liked the coach, and you thought they had a team that could compete for the last playoff spot...and for sure pass Montreal. And again, this was in late January, not November.

 

At end of season your takes were roster put out there was awful,  that was on JBotts, no way could they compete for a playoff spot with that roster, and yea, maybe the coach sucked as well. And we wont bring up where they ended and where Montreal ended. 

 

(just bustin, but Hot Takes Exposed is a great twitter account too)

 

OTOH, after two nights of the NHL season last year, on this here very board I said Montreal is going to be good and i love the way they play, they will finish ahead of the Sabres, and Housley needed to be fired....hockey genuis I am!!!!!! That was after each played 1 game🤣

 

BTW, I never bought in this roster was last place roster, just as the year before i didn't ....i don't know squat about Freddy coming in, but he just has gots to be better than what we have had last two years

I'm sticking with Botts. What this organization doesn't need is another starting over. Whether you want to admit to it or not this was a rebuilding job. It takes time. Housley didn't work out. He was fired. But what I will say to you is what I have said all along much to your dismay: The issue that kept this team mired in the muck of mediocrity was an inadequate level of talent. Why am I less despairing than you? Because steadily talent is being added and the younger player are getting better. There is no other way. 

Edited by JohnC
editing

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm sticking with Botts. What this organization is another starting over. Whether you want to admit to it or not this was a rebuilding job. It takes time. Housley didn't work out. He was fired. But what I will say to you is what I have said all along much to your dismay: The issue that kept this team mired in the muck of mediocrity was an inadequate level of talent. Why am I less despairing than you? Because steadily talent is being added and the younger player are getting better. There is no other way. 

i must stink at this cause you miss my point. I think the roster last year was adequate, and should have competed for a playoff spot. as I do this year...and was held back by an inept coach who lost his players and the room and a GM who was scared to fire his first hire...he will learn from that and not wait so long when is so obvious next time. 

 

I have never flipped on that position..unlike someone i know!!!

Edited by plenzmd1
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3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

i must stink at this cause you miss my point. I think the roster last year was adequate, and should have competed for a playoff spot. as I do this year...and was held back by an inept coach who lost his players and the room and a GM who was scared to fire his first hire...he will learn from that and not wait so long when is so obvious next time. 

 

I have never flipped on that position..unlike someone i know!!!

We fundamentally disagree about the level of talent on last year's roster and where we were in the rebuilding process. The roster that was assembled last year was not good enough to seriously compete for a playoff spot. That's my opinion. This year's roster will be better but I'm not sure that it is a playoff caliber team. We don't need to again go around in circles for another year. The angry mob is tired of the never ending duels.  :)

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, JohnC said:

We fundamentally disagree about the level of talent on last year's roster and where we were in the rebuilding process. The roster that was assembled last year was not good enough to seriously compete for a playoff spot. That's my opinion. This year's roster will be better but I'm not sure that it is a playoff caliber team. We don't need to again go around in circles for another year. The angry mob is tired of the never ending duels.  :)

but you did in January!!!

Edited by plenzmd1

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