THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - WHAT A MEAL!

[WhoTom]

16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

McD said in his presser that for the last game Edminds finally let go, stopped thinking so much and just played.  He said it was pretty impressive. 

 

6 hours ago, Augie said:

 

He also demonstrated that he has far better hands than Kelvin Benjamin ever dreamed of! 

 

So does Kyle Williams. ?

 

[Figster]

1 minute ago, WhoTom said:

 

 

So does Kyle Williams. ?

 

Lol, good stuff

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Figster said:

Once upon a time an athlete by the name of Cam Newton was created by the football Gods. Bringing forth the New Era power forward/QB into the NFL. As Newton commenced to breaking records on the ground and through the air, ripping a new A hole into opposing Defenses across the league. "We can make him stronger, and we can make him smarter "said one football God to another, and to make things more interesting we will make him one Buffalo strong. The other football God chuckled and said "4 straight superbowl losses, no QB to speak of for almost 2 decades, I like that idea, lets make him one Buffalo strong.

 

and name him Josh Allen...

 

This is great!   Thanks.

 

I'm not a Newton fan.  I don't think he is a quality decision maker, and for whatever reason his throwing is inaccurate.  I've thought for a couple of months that Allen is going to blow right by Newton.  In five years they won't be discussed in the same sentence. 

 

My, aren't we getting ahead of ourselves?!

[Figster]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

This is great!   Thanks.

 

I'm not a Newton fan.  I don't think he is a quality decision maker, and for whatever reason his throwing is inaccurate.  I've thought for a couple of months that Allen is going to blow right by Newton.  In five years they won't be discussed in the same sentence. 

 

My, aren't we getting ahead of ourselves?!

Just a little, lol

 

I've been asking, ok, begging Santa for a franchise QB to long my friend, 

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Figster said:

Just a little, lol

 

I've been asking, ok, begging Santa for a franchise QB to long my friend, 

 

 

One thing that ought to temper our enthusiasm is that Allen's stats are horrible.  I was just looking at Football Outsiders, and his DVOA rank is 33.   

 

He LOOKED like a stud against the Dolphins, but it was the Dolphins and a meaningless game, a game in which the Bills were amped up because of Kyle.   If he can't look good in that game, when can he?  

 

We need more of those 3 TD passing, 2 TD rushing games!

[Figster]

18 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

One thing that ought to temper our enthusiasm is that Allen's stats are horrible.  I was just looking at Football Outsiders, and his DVOA rank is 33.   

 

He LOOKED like a stud against the Dolphins, but it was the Dolphins and a meaningless game, a game in which the Bills were amped up because of Kyle.   If he can't look good in that game, when can he?  

 

We need more of those 3 TD passing, 2 TD rushing games!

When you take into consideration the below average pass protection/ supporting cast.  The drops, the lazy route running by our #1. ( If you can call him that) Then take into account the leadership, grit and determination Josh Allen displayed/provided, literally carrying the team on his back at times. The athleticism, biggest cannon the NFL has ever seen, the on the edge of your seat entertainment every time Josh Allen touches the ball. All things considered/ combined.

 

Stats really don't tell the whole story in my humble opinion Shaw.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by Figster

[Billsfan1972]

35 minutes ago, Figster said:

When you take into consideration the below average pass protection/ supporting cast.  The drops, the lazy route running by our #1. ( If you can call him that) Then take into account the leadership, grit and determination Josh Allen displayed/provided, literally carrying the team on his back at times. The athleticism, biggest cannon the NFL has ever seen, the on the edge of your seat entertainment every time Josh Allen touches the ball. All things considered/ combined.

 

Stats really don't tell the whole story in my humble opinion Shaw.

 

 

Again yesterday watching only 2 minutes of a bowl game & a better catch by a college receiver then all year by a Bill.

 

It's amazing watching other games and every game there are 4-5 catches that the Bills did not make all season. 

 

Sad part is the excitement generated by a 225 yard passing day.   Bills fans have been beaten up way too long. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Figster said:

When you take into consideration the below average pass protection/ supporting cast.  The drops, the lazy route running by our #1. ( If you can call him that) Then take into account the leadership, grit and determination Josh Allen displayed/provided, literally carrying the team on his back at times. The athleticism, biggest cannon the NFL has ever seen, the on the edge of your seat entertainment every time Josh Allen touches the ball. All things considered/ combined.

 

Stats really don't tell the whole story in my humble opinion Shaw.

 

 

I won't dismiss the stats.   For years I've been saying that although people may not think it's perfect, the passer rating is a good measure of how well a QB is doing.   Allen's passer rating is horrible.   He isn't the only QB in the league with a weak receiving corps, but he and Rosen are the only starters in the league with a passer rating below 70.   That number is horrible. 

 

Take one stat in isolation:  Interceptions.  Allen's interception perception is second highest in the league, behind only our man Ryan Fitz.  That stat has very little to do with anything other than bad decision making.   It doesn't matter whether you're thowing to Kelvin Benjamin or Julio Jones if the safetytis undercutting the route.  

 

Allen had only two games with a passer rating over 90.   He had 6 below 70.  EJ Manuel's CAREER passer rating is 77. 

 

Allen is spectacular.  At the same time, he has a long way to go.   

[Figster]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I won't dismiss the stats.   For years I've been saying that although people may not think it's perfect, the passer rating is a good measure of how well a QB is doing.   Allen's passer rating is horrible.   He isn't the only QB in the league with a weak receiving corps, but he and Rosen are the only starters in the league with a passer rating below 70.   That number is horrible. 

 

Take one stat in isolation:  Interceptions.  Allen's interception perception is second highest in the league, behind only our man Ryan Fitz.  That stat has very little to do with anything other than bad decision making.   It doesn't matter whether you're thowing to Kelvin Benjamin or Julio Jones if the safetytis undercutting the route.  

 

Allen had only two games with a passer rating over 90.   He had 6 below 70.  EJ Manuel's CAREER passer rating is 77. 

 

Allen is spectacular.  At the same time, he has a long way to go.   

Both Fitz and Josh Allen by way of wonderlic are two of the smartest QB's in the league. Also two of the most fearless. Difference being one is a savvy vet, the other a rookie learning on the run. (literally) Fitzy lacks the sufficient arm strength it takes to succeed at a high level in the NFL IMO. Allen on the other hand/arm at times, has to much arm strength on display.

 

Myself personally,  the progress Josh Allen has made as a rookie in a not so perfect situation around him has been impressive.  My hat goes off to the posters that wanted to see Allen on the field sooner vs later and I feel like we are one season ahead of schedule now because of it.

 

I'm into stats myself and have used them in many discussions.

 

Speaking of stats, Josh Allen 10 + yards per pass attempt average was higher then any QB in the NFL. 

 

[Shaw66]

35 minutes ago, Figster said:

Both Fitz and Josh Allen by way of wonderlic are two of the smartest QB's in the league. Also two of the most fearless. Difference being one is a savvy vet, the other a rookie learning on the run. (literally) Fitzy lacks the sufficient arm strength it takes to succeed at a high level in the NFL IMO. Allen on the other hand/arm at times, has to much arm strength on display.

 

Myself personally,  the progress Josh Allen has made as a rookie in a not so perfect situation around him has been impressive.  My hat goes off to the posters that wanted to see Allen on the field sooner vs later and I feel like we are one season ahead of schedule now because of it.

 

I'm into stats myself and have used them in many discussions.

 

Speaking of stats, Josh Allen 10 + yards per pass attempt average was higher then any QB in the NFL. 

 

It feels strange arguing the other side, because I think Allen is going to be a star.  A true star.  If Daboll does his job, Allen will be next season's Mahomes.   By 2020 we'll be celebrating that we traded Mahomes for White and Allen.  But ...

 

10+ yard per attempt isn't something to brag about.  McDermott admitted a week or two ago that they've been trying to get him to take the checkdown more oftern. 

 

By the time draft night came, I was Mayfield-Darnold-Rosen-Allen.  When the Bills traded up in the first I said to myself "Good, take Rosen.   NO, WAIT.  TAKE ALLEN.  TAKE ALLEN!!!"  I changed my mind because I didn't a wimpy little guy - I wanted the body and the arm.  

 

By the end of preseason I wanted him starting and nearly puked when I heard it was Nate.  FortuNATEly, that didn't last long.  

 

I'm genuinely excited every game, just to see him play.  

 

I just look at the stats and think he's a long way from where he needs to be.  But I also think he's on a rocketship that's going to get him there faster than the pundits might think.  I think he's going to be studying film all off-season, I think he'll get significantly better protection and a better running game next season, and I think he's going to have a whole summer to get used to the receivers he's going to be playing with.   (I think they will be Zay and Foster and two or three guys who aren't yet on the roster.) 

 

I also think Edmunds will be consistently better than we saw most of this season.  He won't be great, not yet, but he'll be a problem for opponents.  I think the defense will improve around him.  

 

I think this team surprises a lot of people and goes 10-6 OR BETTER.  

 

I'm just saying that Allen wasn't a quality starter this past season.  

[PlayoffsPlease]

On 1/1/2019 at 4:30 PM, FLFan said:

They have the space to pay McCoy next year.  That is not the issue.  If they believe he can still be effective, he is a luxury they can certainly afford while they groom a replacement. 

There almost certainly better ways to spend the 8 million of cap space. Its absurd to think the decision is between keeping McCoy and not using the cap space. 

[Figster]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It feels strange arguing the other side, because I think Allen is going to be a star.  A true star.  If Daboll does his job, Allen will be next season's Mahomes.   By 2020 we'll be celebrating that we traded Mahomes for White and Allen.  But ...

 

10+ yard per attempt isn't something to brag about.  McDermott admitted a week or two ago that they've been trying to get him to take the checkdown more oftern. 

 

By the time draft night came, I was Mayfield-Darnold-Rosen-Allen.  When the Bills traded up in the first I said to myself "Good, take Rosen.   NO, WAIT.  TAKE ALLEN.  TAKE ALLEN!!!"  I changed my mind because I didn't a wimpy little guy - I wanted the body and the arm.  

 

By the end of preseason I wanted him starting and nearly puked when I heard it was Nate.  FortuNATEly, that didn't last long.  

 

I'm genuinely excited every game, just to see him play.  

 

I just look at the stats and think he's a long way from where he needs to be.  But I also think he's on a rocketship that's going to get him there faster than the pundits might think.  I think he's going to be studying film all off-season, I think he'll get significantly better protection and a better running game next season, and I think he's going to have a whole summer to get used to the receivers he's going to be playing with.   (I think they will be Zay and Foster and two or three guys who aren't yet on the roster.) 

 

I also think Edmunds will be consistently better than we saw most of this season.  He won't be great, not yet, but he'll be a problem for opponents.  I think the defense will improve around him.  

 

I think this team surprises a lot of people and goes 10-6 OR BETTER.  

 

I'm just saying that Allen wasn't a quality starter this past season.  

The 10 + yards per pass attempt helps illustrate the lower number of check down/higher percentage plays most rookie QB's would take advantage of IMO. I'm not saying its always a good stat to have depending on the circumstances, but it suggests to me no play is to big for Josh Allen including 3rd and forever. (20 +) We've seen Big Ben make the same kind of 20+ throws for a 1st down on many occasions.

 

I agree, both Allen and Edmunds are a work in progress. Stats don't lie.  Rookie mistakes while leading the youngest team in the league resulted in a losing record. With that being said the Buffalo Bills ended the year with allot of high expectations for next season. 

 

10 - 6  OR BETTER sounds about right to me. 

[Alphadawg7]

Im gonna say pump the brakes on Zay personally.  I am not going to let this one game forgive how poorly he played this year.  Was it better than last year, sure, but still not at the level of a quality starting WR in the NFL.  

 

Someone posted a highlight reel of all the passes that Allen threw that were flat out dropped by the receiving target.  Its a longer video than you think (sadly) and Zay is on there quite a few times with some bad ones.

 

My issue with Zay, is simple...he isnt "good" at anything.  He doesn't excel yet in any part of the game, and thats mind boggling after 2 seasons already.  

• Routes - Doesn't consistently run good routes and good defensive backs easily, and way too easily, can get him off his route and fluster him.  
• Lacks top end speed - He's isn't slow like KB, but he also isn't scaring anyone with his speed.  He is fast enough, but only if he can be a good route runner, which he isnt.
• Separation - Because he isn't excelling as a route runner and also lacks explosiveness, he just isn't consistently getting separation for what you would want and expect out of a starting WR.  He gets a lot of his production when Allen extends plays where its hard for a DB to hold coverage that long, but not often enough is he winning on his initial route.
• Hands - Pretty well documented issue with him, just drops too many passes.  And he has more that aren't statistically credited as "drops" because he is so far off his route because he doesn't win enough against DB's on his routes.  Slay for instance utterly dominated him and again he was dominated in the NE game to where they might as well be drops because he couldn't get to where he was supposed to be to catch the pass.
• Contested catches and tough catches - This is where he may be the worst at.  Talk about a guy who just doesn't win those contested balls and fails constantly to make a tougher catch you expect out of your starting WR.

Again, he "improved" this year, but did he really have a year that says he should be a starting WR in the NFL?  I didn't see it, and I was one of his supporters coming into this year who thought he had a chance to really turn a corner and put last year behind him.  

 

My stance on Zay is this:  Go get 2 veteran WR's and maybe a rookie too.  Sign someone like Tyrell and then Humphries.  You got Tyrell and Foster as your likely starters, and Humphries as your WR3 and slot guy to play that Cooper Kupp role here.  Let Zay then battle it out from the WR4 spot and see if he can over take anyone ahead of him for more playing time.  My suspicion is that Zay won't be able to unseat any of those 3 guys when facing stiffer competition at WR.  Resign McKenzie as a WR5/ST guy...and if we also draft a rookie, then Zay would likely also be playing to even make the roster at that point.  

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Im gonna say pump the brakes on Zay personally.  I am not going to let this one game forgive how poorly he played this year.  Was it better than last year, sure, but still not at the level of a quality starting WR in the NFL.  

 

Someone posted a highlight reel of all the passes that Allen threw that were flat out dropped by the receiving target.  Its a longer video than you think (sadly) and Zay is on there quite a few times with some bad ones.

 

My issue with Zay, is simple...he isnt "good" at anything.  He doesn't excel yet in any part of the game, and thats mind boggling after 2 seasons already.  

• Routes - Doesn't consistently run good routes and good defensive backs easily, and way too easily, can get him off his route and fluster him.  
• Lacks top end speed - He's isn't slow like KB, but he also isn't scaring anyone with his speed.  He is fast enough, but only if he can be a good route runner, which he isnt.
• Separation - Because he isn't excelling as a route runner and also lacks explosiveness, he just isn't consistently getting separation for what you would want and expect out of a starting WR.  He gets a lot of his production when Allen extends plays where its hard for a DB to hold coverage that long, but not often enough is he winning on his initial route.
• Hands - Pretty well documented issue with him, just drops too many passes.  And he has more that aren't statistically credited as "drops" because he is so far off his route because he doesn't win enough against DB's on his routes.  Slay for instance utterly dominated him and again he was dominated in the NE game to where they might as well be drops because he couldn't get to where he was supposed to be to catch the pass.
• Contested catches and tough catches - This is where he may be the worst at.  Talk about a guy who just doesn't win those contested balls and fails constantly to make a tougher catch you expect out of your starting WR.

Again, he "improved" this year, but did he really have a year that says he should be a starting WR in the NFL?  I didn't see it, and I was one of his supporters coming into this year who thought he had a chance to really turn a corner and put last year behind him.  

 

My stance on Zay is this:  Go get 2 veteran WR's and maybe a rookie too.  Sign someone like Tyrell and then Humphries.  You got Tyrell and Foster as your likely starters, and Humphries as your WR3 and slot guy to play that Cooper Kupp role here.  Let Zay then battle it out from the WR4 spot and see if he can over take anyone ahead of him for more playing time.  My suspicion is that Zay won't be able to unseat any of those 3 guys when facing stiffer competition at WR.  Resign McKenzie as a WR5/ST guy...and if we also draft a rookie, then Zay would likely also be playing to even make the roster at that point.  

He was 59th in the league in receptions this year.   Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was in the low 40s.   That means he was average for a #2 wideout.  

 

He was 61st in yards this season.  Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was around 50.   That means he was average for a 32 wideout.  

 

That's on a team that was 28th in the league in attempts.   

 

His season was quite similar to Robert Woods' second season.   He catches about the same number of passes for about the same number of yards with about the same ratio of catches to targets.   

 

Maybe all the things you say about him are true.   Somehow in his second season he's an average NFL #2 wideout.  

[Alphadawg7]

21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

He was 59th in the league in receptions this year.   Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was in the low 40s.   That means he was average for a #2 wideout.  

 

He was 61st in yards this season.  Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was around 50.   That means he was average for a 32 wideout.  

 

That's on a team that was 28th in the league in attempts.   

 

His season was quite similar to Robert Woods' second season.   He catches about the same number of passes for about the same number of yards with about the same ratio of catches to targets.   

 

Maybe all the things you say about him are true.   Somehow in his second season he's an average NFL #2 wideout.  

 

No disrespect, but stats are not a reliable way to analyze any player at any position in the NFL.  NFL over all other sports needs context to go along with stats to understand what you are reading.  Stevie Johnson was a 1000 yard WR here when there was nothing to throw to, he was then terrible while both young and in his prime everywhere else and out of the league early in his career even after playing with future HOF QB Rivers. Tom Brady made Deion Branch look legit, yet once Seattle gave up a first round pick for him while he was young and in his prime, he was worthless.  Peerless Price looked like the next best thing opposite Moulds with Bledsoe and then was not good ever again after Atlanta foolishly gave us a first round pick for him.

 

So his stats dont tell me anything about him being good or bad.  Someone had to catch passes here, and he was a starter the whole year, so of course he is going to get some stats. That does not automatically make him a GOOD starter by any means.  

 

Like I said, he does not excel at anything, not YET at least.  And even then, you had to cite rankings, not totals.  You had to remove lots of other people who catch passes to soften the lower ranking positions.  You did a lot to try and HELP his case in terms of a stat sheet.  What you didn't do is actually provide any evidence that he does anything well or dispute any of the things I pointed out that he is not excelling in.  

 

This is the NFL, if you make a roster here you are capable of accumulating some stats when you are the best option out of a group of bad options.  Put him in TB for instance, he doesn't see a snap there, he is likely 5th on the depth chart.  Put him in Los Angeles, he is at best 4th on the depth chart.  Put him even in Carolina, he probably is still 4th on the depth chart.  Put him in Seattle, at best 4th on the depth chart.  I honestly can not think of a single team in the NFL where he would have for sure started for them all season without injuries to players ahead of him pushing him into the starting lineup. 

 

So I respectfully disagree with the stats rebuttal and cant fathom the comparison to Woods to be honest, they are not even remotely close to the same level of play on the field right now.  Woods has a lethal run game in Gurly around him and also has to compete for targets with Cooks, Kupp, Gurley, and both TE's while Zay was on a team with little competition for targets.  Zay also let an UDFA rookie, who got cut once during the season, completely over take him on the depth chart and out shine him.  

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but stats are not a reliable way to analyze any player at any position in the NFL.  NFL over all other sports needs context to go along with stats to understand what you are reading.  Stevie Johnson was a 1000 yard WR here when there was nothing to throw to, he was then terrible while both young and in his prime everywhere else and out of the league early in his career even after playing with future HOF QB Rivers. Tom Brady made Deion Branch look legit, yet once Seattle gave up a first round pick for him while he was young and in his prime, he was worthless.  Peerless Price looked like the next best thing opposite Moulds with Bledsoe and then was not good ever again after Atlanta foolishly gave us a first round pick for him.

 

So his stats dont tell me anything about him being good or bad.  Someone had to catch passes here, and he was a starter the whole year, so of course he is going to get some stats. That does not automatically make him a GOOD starter by any means.  

 

Like I said, he does not excel at anything, not YET at least.  And even then, you had to cite rankings, not totals.  You had to remove lots of other people who catch passes to soften the lower ranking positions.  You did a lot to try and HELP his case in terms of a stat sheet.  What you didn't do is actually provide any evidence that he does anything well or dispute any of the things I pointed out that he is not excelling in.  

 

This is the NFL, if you make a roster here you are capable of accumulating some stats when you are the best option out of a group of bad options.  Put him in TB for instance, he doesn't see a snap there, he is likely 5th on the depth chart.  Put him in Los Angeles, he is at best 4th on the depth chart.  Put him even in Carolina, he probably is still 4th on the depth chart.  Put him in Seattle, at best 4th on the depth chart.  I honestly can not think of a single team in the NFL where he would have for sure started for them all season without injuries to players ahead of him pushing him into the starting lineup. 

 

So I respectfully disagree with the stats rebuttal and cant fathom the comparison to Woods to be honest, they are not even remotely close to the same level of play on the field right now.  Woods has a lethal run game in Gurly around him and also has to compete for targets with Cooks, Kupp, Gurley, and both TE's while Zay was on a team with little competition for targets.  Zay also let an UDFA rookie, who got cut once during the season, completely over take him on the depth chart and out shine him.  

This just makes very little sense.

 

First, I was comparing Zay's second season in the NFL to Woods' second season.   In that season the Bills threw 80 more passes than in 2018.  Woods, Freddy (one of those UDFAs you seem to disdain) and Sammy all caught 65 or 66 passes.  Zay's production compares very nicely with what Woods did in his second year.  

 

And more importantly, all of this stuff you say is just stuff.   The NFL is about production, and what I gave you were the stats that say he produced like an average #2, and you say it doesn't matter.   It DOES matter.  Production is just about all that matters for a receiver.   

 

Your whole argument about the Rams is wrong, too.  It's what too many fans do too often - they compare their guy to the comparable guy on the BEST team in the league.  I wasn't comparing Zay to Woods this year - he's a five or six year pro playing on a great team.   What I said is that Zay was an AVERAGE #2 in production, and he was.    And that's not bad for a second year pro, on a team with a rookie QB and that couldn't pass protect and didn't pass much.  

[Billsfan1972]

Alphadawg7 is bang on about Zay.  I want him to make the leap, but every issue pointed out is legit and this is coming from a fan who watches football and sees him struggle doing the simple things.....  Year 1 i remember clearly a simple out pattern where he thought he was still in college, did not tap feet and only got one foot down.  This was an easy play with plenty of time to get the feet in and just did not.

 

This year I did not see him make a great catch, fight for a 50/50 ball, show separation or show good crisp cuts.  

 

I too look at that pass at the end of the first Miami game, where he actually may have adjusted for the ball and as per usual bobbled it and upon review it was incomplete.  Would have been a nice, not great catch, but again missed making what would have been a game changing catch, because he bobbled and in the end trapped the ball against the ground.

 

Sure he'll be back, but I'd pencil him in as the #3 & ask him to prove me & the Bills wrong.  

Edited January 3, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[Shaw66]

6 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Alphadawg7 is bang on about Zay.  I want him to make the leap, but every issue pointed out is legit and this is coming from a fan who watches football and sees him struggle doing the simple things.....  Year 1 i remember clearly a simple out pattern where he thought he was still in college, did not tap feet and only got one foot down.  This was an easy play with plenty of time to get the feet in and just did not.

 

This year I did not see him make a great catch, fight for a 50/50 ball, show separation or show good crisp cuts.  

 

I too look at that pass at the end of the first Miami game, where he actually may have adjusted for the ball and as per usual bobbled it and upon review it was incomplete.  Would have been a nice, not great catch, but again missed making what would have been a game changing catch, because he bobbled and in the end trapped the ball against the ground.

 

Sure he'll be back, but I'd pencil him in as the #3 & ask him to prove me & the Bills wrong.  

Did you see his touchdown catch against the Dolphins fir his first Td?  Great catch. 

 

What numbers do you expect from your #2 for the season?  Don't tell me you want 1000 yards. 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Shaw66

[Billsfan1972]

Shaw66 I know expectations for all Bills receivers are so low that the fact a receiver can make even a slight adjustment (as Zay did on the first TD) is reason for a ticker-tape parade, but I do expect more.  

 

As Alphadawg7 says I want to see some separation, catching 50/50 balls (called that for a reason and the Bills are 5/95 on those), better adjustments and nowhere near the # of drops we saw the first two years.  BTW Zay has one of the worst catch % (though much improved this year).

 

 https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneZa00.htm

 

Here is an interesting stat page too.

 

 https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/

 

I expect exponential improvement from him in 2019.  

 

Again though much may come down to the OC get getting the right pieces.

[Figster]

3 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Shaw66 I know expectations for all Bills receivers are so low that the fact a receiver can make even a slight adjustment (as Zay did on the first TD) is reason for a ticker-tape parade, but I do expect more.  

 

As Alphadawg7 says I want to see some separation, catching 50/50 balls (called that for a reason and the Bills are 5/95 on those), better adjustments and nowhere near the # of drops we saw the first two years.  BTW Zay has one of the worst catch % (though much improved this year).

 

 https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneZa00.htm

 

Here is an interesting stat page too.

 

 https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/

 

I expect exponential improvement from him in 2019.  

 

Again though much may come down to the OC get getting the right pieces.

Shaw simply pointed out Zay Jones is middle of the pack as a # 2 in his 2nd season under not so great conditions. Looks like Alpha did some heavy partying over New Years because his reply missed the mark IMO.

 

With all due respect to Alpha because we normally see eye to eye.

 

Zay what ? (to all the skeptics)

 

Zay,  give him a chance, and lets continue this discussion at the end of next season...

Edited January 3, 2019 by Figster

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Figster said:

Shaw simply pointed out Zay Jones is middle of the pack as a # 2 in his 2nd season under not so great conditions. Looks like Alpha did some heavy partying over New Years because his reply missed the mark IMO.

 

With all due respect to Alpha because we normally see eye to eye.

 

Zay what ? (to all the skeptics)

 

Zay,  give him a chance, and lets continue this discussion at the end of next season...

I agree. Surprised where Alpha is coming from.

 

I'd like 800 yards and 10 yards per catch from my #2. I don't care if the catches are boring or highlight real catches. 

 

Zay can easily be in that territory on a team that throws the ball 100 more times. 

[Shaw66]

Another comparison for Zay.   The thread about the best rookies in the league says Calvin RIdley is already one of the best #2s in the league.    Let's take that as true, even though on most teams Ridley may be a #1.   

 

Ridley caught 8 more passes than Zay for 170 more yards.  That's the difference between one of the best #2s and Zay.   And Ridley was on a team that threw 118 more passes, and he was on the field with a top 5 #1 and a top 5 slot receiver.   Do you think Zay would have caught eight more passes playing for Atlanta with Ryan, Jones and Sanu?

 

Zay was fine, and he'll be fine next season.  Could someone do better?  Sure.  But he was far from being a liability in 2018.  Next season he'll be on the field with better wideouts (either because McKenzie and Foster will improve, almost without question, or because the Bills will acquire better talent), with better pass protection (couldn't have been a lot worse) and a better QB.  Zay won't be a problem.  

[Rockinon]

I do believe McCoy has more in his tank as well, Shaw66. Our 3 best OL from last year left for various reasons. That was a devastating blow to the offense as a whole. The OL coach was fired today. It looks like a new coach and help on that line will be addressed in the off season. I'm pretty confident about McCoy actually. The rushing attack will transform. We'll find out soon enough if the change will be for the better. I think it will. The coach has also made a point of calling out the OL play recently as well. Not the best draft for OL but I think the front office is all ready evaluating talent and getting ready for FA and the draft.

[Buddo]

As reards Allen and trying to be 'Superman', I think we will have to beg to differ Shaw. I understand perfectly what you are saying about the 'process' and it's undeniably logical. But it still won't stop the kid from taking a shot too often, now and again. He's simply too competitive, not to.

 

The 'process' is going to be there, to try and make him reduce the instances of this. As it's a process, the goal would be to stop all instances of 'hero ball'. I just don't think that is possible with Allen's competitive instincts. Tbh, I don't want that attitude taken away from him. He will make some of those throws, because he has that amount of ability. I want him to take his shots.

 

What I do want also though, is a better understanding of the when and where to take the shot, much of which will come with both experience and coaching. While there's only so much time to get a play off, there should be enough time in that, to make the point about not making an error, especially when you aren't far from the half, with a lead. i.e. no hero ball, take what you are given.

 

Just to be clear, I'm by no means down on Allen, I just see that particular int before the half, as a prime learning experience.

[Scott7975]

On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 9:52 PM, Shaw66 said:

He was 59th in the league in receptions this year.   Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was in the low 40s.   That means he was average for a #2 wideout.  

 

He was 61st in yards this season.  Take out the running backs and tight ends and he was around 50.   That means he was average for a 32 wideout.  

 

That's on a team that was 28th in the league in attempts.   

 

His season was quite similar to Robert Woods' second season.   He catches about the same number of passes for about the same number of yards with about the same ratio of catches to targets.   

 

Maybe all the things you say about him are true.   Somehow in his second season he's an average NFL #2 wideout.  

Stat wise Zay may have the receptions and yards of a #2.  That may make him look like an average #2, but he was targeted like a #1.  You said yourself that the Bills were 28th in the league in attempts.  Zay was 30th in the league in targets.  That means percentage wise Zay was getting a lot more targets than most.  If the best he can put up is average #2 in that context then he didn't do very well.

 

Football Outsiders has him ranked 71/72 out of 84 ranked receivers for whatever that is worth.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

Stat wise Zay may have the receptions and yards of a #2.  That may make him look like an average #2, but he was targeted like a #1.  You said yourself that the Bills were 28th in the league in attempts.  Zay was 30th in the league in targets.  That means percentage wise Zay was getting a lot more targets than most.  If the best he can put up is average #2 in that context then he didn't do very well.

 

Football Outsiders has him ranked 71/72 out of 84 ranked receivers for whatever that is worth.

Thanks.  Those are both interesting points.  

 

And of course I may be wrong.   Still, I'd guess that next season you'll see a guy who is targeted like a #2 and has stats like a #2.  

 

What I see is decent speed, good but not great hands, hard work and commitment.  

[Billsfan1972]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  Those are both interesting points.  

 

And of course I may be wrong.   Still, I'd guess that next season you'll see a guy who is targeted like a #2 and has stats like a #2.  

 

What I see is decent speed, good but not great hands, hard work and commitment.  

You can't be serious?  He's a Bill & I hope for the best, but underwhelmed through 2 seasons.  

 

I'd like to see:

 

1. Hold on to catchable balls

2. Win a 50/50 battle

3. Crisper routes & cuts.

4. Separation 

 

All of which says right now he is below average on all accounts.....

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

You can't be serious?  He's a Bill & I hope for the best, but underwhelmed through 2 seasons.  

 

I'd like to see:

 

1. Hold on to catchable balls

2. Win a 50/50 battle

3. Crisper routes & cuts.

4. Separation 

 

All of which says right now he is below average on all accounts.....

1.  I thought he caught the ball fine this season.  Had a few drops, but increasingly he seems to be catching all the balls he should.

 

2.  I don't think #2s catch a lot of 50-50 balls.  What #2s do is run good routes and catch the ball when their route attacks a weakness in the defense.   That is, #2s are told to run their routes and be ready; the QB will read the defense and throw it to you.  

 

3.  I actually liked his route running this season.

 

4.  Separation is a myth, at least for #2s.  If you can get separation in a pure one on one situation, you're a #1.  #2s and slot receivers get separation based on scheme, not on physical ability.  

 

Plus, he's played about one and half seasons.   Like everyone that young, he's still learning.  

 

I'm sure replacing Zay is not a high priority for McBeane.  They want a #1, for sure.  They a tight end.  They want o linemen.  They want a running back.  They want a lot of guys on defense.  Zay is behind all of them on the to-do list.  

[Billsfan1972]

Sorry I watched Galloway vs. The Bills do everything in my list above in that one game.

 

That is one example and as said every game I watch I see great catches multiple times that not a single Bill made in 16 games.

 

You're right that Zany is not a priority, but need a whole lot more from him, and yes my fingers are crossed. 

[Shaw66]

29 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Sorry I watched Galloway vs. The Bills do everything in my list above in that one game.

 

That is one example and as said every game I watch I see great catches multiple times that not a single Bill made in 16 games.

 

You're right that Zany is not a priority, but need a whole lot more from him, and yes my fingers are crossed. 

When you watched Galloway that day, you saw one of the 10 or 20 best receiving days by any receiver in the league in 2018.   He was spectacular. 

 

There are probably 15 receivers in the league who can be dominant like that.   Let's be generous and call it 30 who can dominate like that.   Most of them are #1s or are on their way to becoming #1s quickly.   

 

Of course I'd like to have a guy like Galloway as my #2.  32 GMs would too.  He's not the kind of guy you can expect to have in that position, at least until there's a general upgrade in other talent on the team.  

 

Let's face it, if a guy Galloway is in the Bills' camp next summer, he isn't taking Zay's #2 job.  He's the #1 guy, and Zay probably keeps his job over Foster as the #2.   The way Zay loses his job is the Bills get lucky in the draft and come up with a really talented receiver AND Foster continues his growth.  

 

It's possible, of course, particularly because Beane so adamantly goes after the best player available.  So the Bills could get a really good rookie receiver.  And it's also possible that the Bills continue to unlock Foster's talent and he makes another leap forward in 2019.   He has the physical ability.

 

So you could get your Galloway, but I think it's much more likely you're going to have Zay.   I predict you'll be happy with him.  

Edited January 5, 2019 by Shaw66

[Figster]

4 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Stat wise Zay may have the receptions and yards of a #2.  That may make him look like an average #2, but he was targeted like a #1.  You said yourself that the Bills were 28th in the league in attempts.  Zay was 30th in the league in targets.  That means percentage wise Zay was getting a lot more targets than most.  If the best he can put up is average #2 in that context then he didn't do very well.

 

Football Outsiders has him ranked 71/72 out of 84 ranked receivers for whatever that is worth.

I don't think Zay was targeted like a #1, and our #1 in KB was a joke which doesn't help matters because it allows the opposition the ability to focus more on #2 WR IMO.

 

Rookie QB on a team near the bottom of the league in attempts. I'm not sure what the ranking are supposed to tell you.

 

My eye test tells me Zay Jones is developing good chemistry with Josh Allen. 

 

Myself personally, I'm expecting a break out season from Jones next season.

[Scott7975]

19 minutes ago, Figster said:

I don't think Zay was targeted like a #1, and our #1 in KB was a joke which doesn't help matters because it allows the opposition the ability to focus more on #2 WR IMO.

 

Rookie QB on a team near the bottom of the league in attempts. I'm not sure what the ranking are supposed to tell you.

 

My eye test tells me Zay Jones is developing good chemistry with Josh Allen. 

 

Myself personally, I'm expecting a break out season from Jones next season.

He was targeted like a #1.  He had 102 targets.  Most on this team by a big margin and in the area of #1s around the league.  Considering further that our team was 28th in pass attempts... that's a pretty big number.

Edited January 5, 2019 by Scott7975

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  Those are both interesting points.  

 

And of course I may be wrong.   Still, I'd guess that next season you'll see a guy who is targeted like a #2 and has stats like a #2.  

 

What I see is decent speed, good but not great hands, hard work and commitment.  

What I would like to see is better separation and more consistent hands.  He made a few nice grabs in the last Miami game and some nice ones sporadically throughout the season. He never, that I recall, made any great catches. Every receiver has drops but he has a bit more.  He only had a 55% catch rate which is pretty abysmal.

 

Allen is criticized around here all the time for his accuracy and completion%.  Its a completely different picture if not just Zay, but any of these guys just made a couple catches that hit them in the hands each game.  In some cases its a completely different game.  I think that Zays drops, and any receiver on this team, look worse than they might be just because of this.  They almost never come up big in big moments that can change the course of a game.  When they do it's more often then not called back on some type of penalty.  I think that for myself, I expect more out of Zay then the rest because of his draft status.  We traded up to get this guy and it is his second year in.  I expect him to do more than some undrafted off the street that hadn't played half a season.

Edited January 5, 2019 by Scott7975

[Figster]

22 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

He was targeted like a #1.  He had 102 targets.  Most on this team by a big margin and in the area of #1s around the league.  Considering further that our team was 28th in pass attempts... that's a pretty big number.

Mind supplying a link that supports your post. ( targeted like a 1 )

 

Most targeting stats/rankings include TE's and RB's.

Edited January 5, 2019 by Figster

[Scott7975]

5 minutes ago, Figster said:

Mind supplying a link that supports your post. ( targeted like a 1 )

 

Most targeting stats include TE's and RB's.

Sure...

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#targets

 

Sort by targets.  Zay was ranked 30th in targets.  That is already in the #1 area.  Now you can count the 4TEs ranked above him and do the math.  He would be ranked 26th in targets among WR's.

[Figster]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

Sure...

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#targets

 

Sort by targets.  Zay was ranked 30th in targets.  That is already in the #1 area.  Now you can count the 4TEs ranked above him and do the math.  He would be ranked 26th in targets among WR's.

Thanks, much appreciated.

 

You are correct.

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, Figster said:

Thanks, much appreciated.

 

You are correct.

Not a problem.  If you have never been to that site, look around.  There is a lot of cool stuff there.

[Figster]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

Not a problem.  If you have never been to that site, look around.  There is a lot of cool stuff there.

Bookmarked, thanks Buddy

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Sure...

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#targets

 

Sort by targets.  Zay was ranked 30th in targets.  That is already in the #1 area.  Now you can count the 4TEs ranked above him and do the math.  He would be ranked 26th in targets among WR's.

Thanks for the link.  It's a place I haven't used, but it seems to do a lot of good things.   

 

Home page has Josh Allen up as having thrown the longest pass - air yards - in 2018.

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks for the link.  It's a place I haven't used, but it seems to do a lot of good things.   

 

Home page has Josh Allen up as having thrown the longest pass - air yards - in 2018.

Yes, Mayfield also had one of the longest air yard throws too.  I knew he was good, but I didn't realize he had that arm strength too. I started looking at the site about two years ago.  I not only like the stats but I love looking at the passing charts.

Edited January 5, 2019 by Scott7975