Charting Allen's throws vs. Jets

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Bangarang said:

 

Im not, I think that play was a combination of both.

Could be.  I don't want to argue over one play.  As a rule I respect what you post.

[VW82]

44 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You are correct on the four options.  One can certainly make a bad decision and then also be inaccurate when you throw the ball.

 

Completion percentage is not an indicator of accuracy.  Let me explain why, and why the simplification of statistical analysis leads people astray.  Let's take the throw to Clay that you inadvertently omitted.  He dropped a well thrown ball.  Very accurate. Very precise.  Now that turns into a negative on completion percentage and thus negatively skews the data even though it wasn't on Allen.

 

 But that's not the only thing you have to considerin trying to statistically analyze QBs. Here's just a few things you'd have to throw into an analysis that could skew your completion percentagedata:

 

Weather (lot of wind affects thing)

Length of the throw- many college QBs have skewed data because they throw short patterns

Quality of your WR corps

Quality of defensive backs

Offensive scheme

How many balls are thrown away to avoid the rush

 

And so on.  To really evaluate completion percentages what a statistician would employ is multivariate analysis, and although I have a decent understanding of stats I am nowhere near good enough to figure out how you would set it up.

 

So if we take the game Sunday, and take out the drops and the throwaways (because Allen deliberately wanted to throw incompletions in that case) his completion percentage is in the 60s.  That's the mathematical reality, and why I discount that statistic.

 

Now those who don't like Allen will just say that every QB throws balls away, and every QB has dropped passes.  Ok, thenshow me the data.  Pick another guy or two and see if it's true.

 

Now to accuracy and precision.  Ideally a QB is both.  Those type guys are in Canton; they fit balls into very tight windows.  Allen truly needs to work more on precision; his accuracy is not bad.  True he was inaccurate on a couple like the throw to Thompson but most all his throws his receivers get their hands on the ball with opportunities to make a catch.  That's accurate, but not as precise as desired.

 

I suspect the next thing that will come up is that he can't improve accuracy.  Wrong.  That is mechanics, and mechanics can be improved by hard practice and reputation.  Allen has shown he can be accurate, what he needs to do is improve his consistency.  And that is improbable with practice.  You play golf?  You get better with practice, right?  Develop more touch and consistency?  Or can your jumper in basketball improve?  Yep. So can throwing a ball.

 

I think the primary thing Allen and any young QB needs are:  1.  Continued work on mechanics (and that would include working with your receivers constantly to make sure their routes are solid etc- a big reason why Payton and Brady are Payton and Brady) and 2.  Getting the game to slow down so you make good reads and you get the ball delivered in time with consistency.  What I like over the past couple games is I see Allen hanging in the picket making reads more than earlier in the year.  And some of those reads are for him to run.  Archuletta made an interesting comment the other day.  On one of his long runs he talked about how Allen read the MLB and when he moved laterally Allen knew the middle of the field would be wide open for the run.  So I think he'll seeing things more clearly and that's good.

 

Is Allen the answer? I think so, but time will tell.  He needs to continue to improve decision making, needs work on those touch passes.  Those are all legitimate comments and I think Allen himself would agree.  I think what drives me the craziest around here are the pronouncements, like yours, that he is inaccurate and can't improve, or he hasn't shown any improvement, or that he can't ever be an accurate QB.  It is simply silly to try and make a definitive judgment like that on any player at any position, much less the most difficult one to play.  What I do know right now is Allen brings a rather unique skill set, and when he steps on the field I get the feeling things will happen.  And as a fan that's good for me right now.

 

RE the bolded part, I promise you can't quote me on here saying any of that because I never have and don't believe it to be true. I've said repeatedly that Allen is inaccurate. I've never said he can't improve. Clearly he's improved a lot since week one. His pre-snap recognition and feel for the rush is night and day pre vs.post injury (which has helped him keep more plays alive and be more accurate).

 

RE adjusted completion percentages and other variables, sure, just make sure you're applying all these adjustments across the board, and not just for Allen. You're saying prove to me that other QBs have the same rate of drops, throwaways, etc. How about you prove they don't. I don't have that info. What I can say is Allen is starting WAY behind the eight ball in terms of raw completion percentage. Like I said, I'd be surprised if he moved up much from the bottom of the pack if all these accuracy adjustments were applied across the board to every passer, and I'm assuming he does have a higher rate of drops/throwaways/etc. than other QBs. It's just not astronomically higher like many suggest. 

 

I agree he's a very unique QB who has exceptional talent. That talent is what gives me hope that he'll figure it out.       

 

Edit: I mentioned this in another thread but you should check out Total QBR on ESPN. That stat attempts to adjust for things like drops, throwaways, field, score and time of game, etc. If you isolate it for just the passing side of QB play it provides a pretty all encompassing statistical overview of where Allen stands. Also, notice what happens when you sort it to include runs - he goes from dead last to 19th in the league.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/cwepaPassesCondensed 

 

Edited December 12, 2018 by VW82

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, VW82 said:

 

RE the bolded part, I promise you can't quote me on here saying any of that because I never have and don't believe it to be true. I've said repeatedly that Allen is inaccurate. I've never said he can't improve. Clearly he's improved a lot since week one. His pre-snap recognition and feel for the rush is night and day pre vs.post injury.

 

RE adjusted completion percentages and other variables, sure, just make sure you're applying all these adjustments across the board, and not just for Allen. You're saying prove to me that other QBs have the same rate of drops, throwaways, etc. How about you prove they don't. I don't have that info. What I can say is Allen is starting WAY behind the eight ball in terms of raw completion percentage. Like I said, I'd be surprised if he moved up much from the bottom of the pack if all these accuracy adjustments were applied across the board to every passer, and I'm assuming he does have a higher rate of drops/throwaways/etc. than other passers. It's just not astronomically higher like many suggest. 

 

I agree he's a very unique QB who has exceptional talent. That talent is what gives me hope that he'll figure it out.       

 

I'm not interested in proving what other QBs do because I'm not the one trying to argue that Allen is so inaccurate.  Look elsewhere on the site and you will see data indicating his passer rating the past couple games is quite good.

 

Glad you don't think he can't improve.  Now for a tough question:  do you really want him to improve?  I hope so.  I do believe there are a select few around here that want him to fail so they can say I told you so on an Internet site.

[VW82]

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I'm not interested in proving what other QBs do because I'm not the one trying to argue that Allen is so inaccurate.  Look elsewhere on the site and you will see data indicating his passer rating the past couple games is quite good.

 

Glad you don't think he can't improve.  Now for a tough question:  do you really want him to improve?  I hope so.  I do believe there are a select few around here that want him to fail so they can say I told you so on an Internet site.

 

I edited my other post to provide a link to ESPN's QBR page if you want to see a passing stat that's more all encompassing than just QB rating (i.e. adjusts for throwaways, drops, types of throws, etc.).

 

Of course I want the guy to improve! Hah. Nothing would make me happier than to have Allen leading us to the playoffs every year. I certainly have nothing against the guy, just that I think he's inaccurate and I want to see the Bills win. Anyone actively cheering against the guy isn't a real Bills fan.   

Edited December 12, 2018 by VW82

[Augie]

Please don’t take this badly, but when I hear “chart” I want to see a graph of the field, like they do with shot charts in basketball. Green and red dots all over the place, where does he hit or miss, left, right, short or deep. THAT would be interesting but I don’t know if that even exists. It would be interesting! 

 

Reading a box score does little for me. Given all the drops, maybe there should be an extra color or two on the chart. 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I edited my other post to provide a link to ESPN's QBR page if you want to see a passing stat that's more all encompassing than just QB rating (i.e. adjusts for throwaways, drops, types of throws, etc.).

 

Of course I want the guy to improve! Hah. Nothing would make me happier than to have Allen leading us to the playoffs every year. I certainly have nothing against the guy, just that I think he's inaccurate and I want to see the Bills win. Anyone actively cheering against the guy isn't a real Bills fan.   

Glad to hear that.  And regarding the stats you mention it's a prime reason I am skeptical of all these different QBR, etc, etc. methods.  One will say a guy's good, one not.  I just don't think they're very predictive of much.

[VW82]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

Please don’t take this badly, but when I hear “chart” I want to see a graph of the field, like they do with shot charts in basketball. Green and red dots all over the place, where does he hit or miss, left, right, short or deep. THAT would be interesting but I don’t know if that even exists. It would be interesting! 

 

Reading a box score does little for me. Given all the drops, maybe there should be an extra color or two on the chart. 

 

I was going to put the throws into a chart but sadly the post got so long I decided against it, and I thought it was more important to write out the description of each throw so people could go watch the play and have an opportunity to debate what happened.  

[Zerovoltz]

7 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Go ahead and name the nfl teams that have worse receivers than the Buffalo Bills.   

 

 

 

the Washington Redskins.  Tennesee Titans.  Jacksonville Jaguars.

[VW82]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Glad to hear that.  And regarding the stats you mention it's a prime reason I am skeptical of all these different QBR, etc, etc. methods.  One will say a guy's good, one not.  I just don't think they're very predictive of much.

 

Yeah I'm generally not a fan of all-in-one stats. That said, I think stats like QB rating and ESPN's QBR can be appropriately used to form part of the quantitative side of the argument. 

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I was going to put the throws into a chart but sadly the post got so long I decided against it, and I thought it was more important to write out the description of each throw so people could go watch the play and have an opportunity to debate what happened.  

 

Not to mention, that would have been a ridiculous amount of work! I bet somebody, somewhere, does that already? 

[Zerovoltz]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Not to mention, that would have been a ridiculous amount of work! I bet somebody, somewhere, does that already? 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/pass/buffalo-bills/season/13/josh-allen/ALL529264/2018/13/pass

 

[Augie]

 

 

If Allen can prove he can make the little check down throws (and we can get reasonable yardage), those stat go up enormously. We can’t block or catch or execute to make that happen. That’s no reflection on Allen. Don’t get me wrong, I have my reservations, but any judgment now is fools work. 

3 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/pass/buffalo-bills/season/13/josh-allen/ALL529264/2018/13/pass

 

 

Thanks, now we just need to consider having more drops than....anybody else? 

[Teddy KGB]

59 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

the Washington Redskins.  Tennesee Titans.  Jacksonville Jaguars.

 

No hell no and no 

[Bing Bong]

I was expecting a chart graphic

 

Actually we did this at length with early Tyrod and his outside throws. I'm VERY curious to see Allen's. I'll bet no checkdowns. A lot of intermediate middle routes. And deeper completions spread evenly.

Edited December 12, 2018 by PetermanThrew5Picks

[Billsfan1972]

17 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I looked it up, and as usual there's nothing remotely factual about your claim.

 

The Bills pass catchers as a team officially have 15 drops the entire season. 

There were easily 4 & pretty sure 6 drops on Sunday.  Zay 2, The Clay one and McCoy in the backfield off the top of my head.

 

Now how about giving JA credit for getting 2 long PI calls (something our other QB's never seem to draw) and at least 2 more roughing the passer calls.