Mindset and QB accuracy

[ddaryl]

its funny watching people go through the stages of acceptance

 

It may or may not work out. Won't know til we see some game action

 

Until then

 

[reddogblitz]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Put those same missing pieces around Brady and you don't even notice they're missing.

 

How can you possibly know that Tom Brady back pocket boy? When has Tommy ever played with "missing pisces"?  His team was Stacked he got there and remained stacked year after year.

[LABILLBACKER]

On 6/9/2018 at 10:07 AM, Fadingpain said:

A few years ago, Tom Brady had a quote which I have referenced here several times since.

 

He said something like "A lot of quarterbacks in the NFL waste plays, I hate wasting plays and almost never waste a play."

 

What he meant was that if you are smart enough and do enough homework, you should be able to stand at the line of scrimmage, before the balls is snapped, and tell if a called play is going to work or not work...and if it looks bad, you change the play to one that will work and go with that one.

 

Tyrod, for example, is not smart enough to function on that level, so he wasted plays all the time.

 

It relates to what the OP is saying.  The QB needs to "see" the play before the ball is snapped, have a good idea what will happen based on the D formation, and go with what works.  I agree that is often all figured out before the ball is snapped.

 

Look at how long Brady holds onto the ball!  He throws so quickly he must be throwing to a predetermined target much of the time.  He isn't holding the ball long enough to "wing it" during a live play.

 

 

Let's not kid ourselves. We haven't had a qb capable of properly changing plays at the LOS since Jim.

[grb]

12 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Plenty of times Brady takes more than two seconds. That's around his average, so obviously he takes longer an awful lot. You can't expect a second-year guy (that's when I'd like to see Allen play) to play like Tom Brady, most particularly when even Tom Brady doesn't play that way.. Sometimes you get it out in two seconds. Plenty of times you don't. Plenty of plays aren't set up to facilitate that, though plenty are.

 

So removing the "in 2 seconds" part, yeah, "being able to make the right throw, accurately," is only one part of it, but by far the most important and the most difficult part of it.

 

Here's hoping. I agree with the rest of your post, though. The Pats have a good system. And continuity is huge. But what's even more huge is having Tom Brady.

 

Quote : "Plenty of times Brady takes more than two seconds"

 

Well, given Brady's Time to Throw average in 2017 was 2.71 seconds, I'd say that's an understatement. Another Fun Fact : Brady is solidly in the middle of NFL quarterbacks - actually below average a bit. And the leaders?  Blaine Gabbert, Brian Hoyer, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Eli Manning, Josh McCown - in that order. Now there's a lineup destined for Canton, huh? Taylor is down near the bottom, of course, just above Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson. Of course the margin between those three is minuscule. But the delta between Tyrod and Tom is only three-tenths of a second......

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2017/all

 

Edited June 11, 2018 by grb

[row_33]

On 6/9/2018 at 11:51 PM, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

We are Bills fans.  WE ARE ALL DELUSIONAL.

 

45th year of this!!!

 

 

[reddogblitz]

38 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Let's not kid ourselves. We haven't had a qb capable of properly changing plays at the LOS since Jim.

 

 

this plAy was changed at the line. AND it is in the Buffalo Bills record book as opposed to the longest one "Jim" changed at the line.

Edited June 11, 2018 by reddogblitz

[Shaw66]

50 minutes ago, grb said:

 

Quote : "Plenty of times Brady takes more than two seconds"

 

Well, given Brady's Time to Throw average in 2017 was 2.71 seconds, I'd say that's an understatement. Another Fun Fact : Brady is solidly in the middle of NFL quarterbacks - actually below average a bit. And the leaders?  Blaine Gabbert, Brian Hoyer, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Eli Manning, Josh McCown - in that order. Now there's a lineup destined for Canton, huh? Taylor is down near the bottom, of course, just above Russell Wilson and DeShaun Watson. Of course the margin between those three is minuscule. Of course the delta between Tyrod and Tom is only three-tenths of a second......

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2017/all

Thanks for the research.   It points out again the foolishness of looking at isolated stats to explain the abilities of players, and the even greater foolishness of ASSUMING the stats.   

 

Time to release is an interesting stat, and it tells coaches something about what their QB is doing.   Just like throws over the middle tells them something.   Just like yards per attempt on third down tells them something.    

 

However, isolated stats are not useful in identifying who the best QBs are.   The best QBs are the best because of a broad range of good behaviors as QB, including seeing the field, pre-snap reads, accuracy in throwing, avoiding sacks and INTs, etc., etc. etc.   The stat that correlates best to good QB play is the passer rating - the best QBs consistently have good passer ratings, and very few of the mediocre and bad QBs have good passer ratings.   The passer rating doesn't explain WHY they are good, but it is at least a pretty good indicator of WHO is good.  

[Billsfanatixs]

If you watch Allen's games from college you will see he had some bad throws, some bad receivers, but also throws the ball hard as hell and had a ton of passes bounce off his receivers hands. I wanted Mayfield, but I can also see the low completion percentage had multiple causes

 

[grb]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks for the research.   It points out again the foolishness of looking at isolated stats to explain the abilities of players, and the even greater foolishness of ASSUMING the stats.   

 

Time to release is an interesting stat, and it tells coaches something about what their QB is doing.   Just like throws over the middle tells them something.   Just like yards per attempt on third down tells them something.    

 

However, isolated stats are not useful in identifying who the best QBs are.   The best QBs are the best because of a broad range of good behaviors as QB, including seeing the field, pre-snap reads, accuracy in throwing, avoiding sacks and INTs, etc., etc. etc.   The stat that correlates best to good QB play is the passer rating - the best QBs consistently have good passer ratings, and very few of the mediocre and bad QBs have good passer ratings.   The passer rating doesn't explain WHY they are good, but it is at least a pretty good indicator of WHO is good.  

 

With time-to-throw, the most interesting thing is how tight the numbers are. There's barely more than a half-second difference from best to the worse, and minute differences can swing a quarterback's rank way up or down. Take Aaron Rogers, who sits at 15th place. Just 07/100 of a second would move him up to 8th place or down to 25th. Basically, everyone who starts as an NFL quarterback throws a microscopic degree above or below 2.5 seconds. You assume there must be real distinction even in such tiny differences, but look at the list : Elite/bad quarterbacks seem to be distributed almost randomly up and down the ranking.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

On 6/9/2018 at 12:07 PM, Fadingpain said:

A few years ago, Tom Brady had a quote which I have referenced here several times since.

 

He said something like "A lot of quarterbacks in the NFL waste plays, I hate wasting plays and almost never waste a play."

 

What he meant was that if you are smart enough and do enough homework, you should be able to stand at the line of scrimmage, before the balls is snapped, and tell if a called play is going to work or not work...and if it looks bad, you change the play to one that will work and go with that one.

 

Tyrod, for example, is not smart enough to function on that level, so he wasted plays all the time.

 

It relates to what the OP is saying.  The QB needs to "see" the play before the ball is snapped, have a good idea what will happen based on the D formation, and go with what works.  I agree that is often all figured out before the ball is snapped.

 

Look at how long Brady holds onto the ball!  He throws so quickly he must be throwing to a predetermined target much of the time.  He isn't holding the ball long enough to "wing it" during a live play.

 

 

Taylor looked clueless at the LOS. 

[Ga boy]

20 hours ago, grb said:

 

 

I've got a familiar point to make here, but will lay it out slowly so everyone can "process the information" :

• Taylor only had Watkins and Woods on the field 15 games over two years
• When he did, this resulted : 63.6% comp. 8.25 YPA. 27 td passes. 6 ints
• Watkins and Woods were a good number 1&2 receiver, but by no means elite
• Yet with a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor could (how does that go?) "commit to the throw"
• With a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor could "get his mind around" it (whatever it is)
• With a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor could "process the information"
• With a good number 1&2 receiver, apparently Taylor was "smart enough to function on that level"

I apologize if I missed any hackneyed Taylor-bashing cliche above, because I don't want to slight anyone. But isn't it amazing how well Taylor functioned when he wasn't throwing to hospital cases or scrubs scrapped off another teams' practice squad? Take 2015 alone, and TT was 7th in the NFL by passer rating, threw for 8 ypa, and had one of the lowest interception rates in the league. All this while being mentally deficient - per the judgement of so many commentators here. Astounding, huh? Of course I think many of those same commentators still gush over how smart Peterman is - a man who has had made more bone-head decisions per play than pretty much anyone in living memory.

 

Go figure.......

As OP, let me clarify that I don't think that mindset has anything to do with intellectual ability.  In fact, I don't think you have to be an Einstein to be a great QB.  There are many examples of this.  I don't know if Brady has a high IQ.  I do know that his mindset is to throw the dang ball in 2 secs 90% of the time.  I don't think that TT was coached this way, or Peterman.   I think that Josh should be.  I think that Brady is committed to throw on his first step away from center.  I think his offense is designed to move the defense away from his primary guy.  Belicheat's defensive mind helps Brady with the mindset of commitment to throw because he knows how a defense will react to his offense.  He is the real Einstein in the room.  Again, I think TT and Peterman were coached to go throw the progressions after the snap, whereas Brady does it pre-snap.  Of course, Brady playing is the same scheme for a decade allows him to do things others can't.  Montana was  another guy with the same mindset.  I just hope Josh is coached to get the ball out fast, instead of going through the progressions.