John Ledyard on with Schopp & Sal today

[Fadingpain]

1 minute ago, GG said:

His take on the entire 2016 class was woefully wrong.

When it comes to predicting Allen's success, don't listen to John Ledyard.

 

Listen to the data.  Almost all of which says Allen will fail.

 

I know lots of Bills fans don't want to believe that, but there it is.

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

This is what Ledyard said about Wentz and it doesn't sound ridiculous when you look at his comments in totality:

 

Almost ironically however, we also exist in a league and a world of immediate gratification, where impatience and the need to win now often supersede logic and sound developmental process. Wentz isn’t ready to start in the NFL, and certainly isn’t ready to carry the value of being a top ten pick. And that is completely ok.

 

That isn’t to say that he won’t or shouldn’t be selected in the top five or ten players in this year’s draft. If there is a team that is prepared to allow Wentz to develop and wants to take that risk, I understand that. 

[Jamie Mueller]

Fortunately, there isn't a draft "expert" out there who will have any impact on the trajectory of Josh Allen's career.  That's 100% on the Bills' coaches... and on the kid himself.  Frankly, listening to the Buffalo media types... and a lot of people on this board... you'd swear that they want him to fail.   Regardless of who you may have wanted the Bills to take at #7... this guy's our next big hope at quarterback.  I'm hoping like hell that he turns out to be good.  Even a Roethlisberger or Bledsoe level of good would make me very happy.

Edited May 12, 2018 by Jamie Mueller

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Gonna break this down:

1) Any analyst's job is to give honest opinion and professional criticism, not to make fans feel good.  Agreed. 

2) Isn't Jon Ledyard fundamentally "JAG" (fan like the rest of us)?  From NDT scouting:

" Jon Ledyard has been writing about the NFL draft for several years now, and is thrilled to be bringing creative content and unique analysis to NDT Scouting.(...)Jon is also the host of the Locked on NFL Draft and Breaking the Plane podcasts, while covering the Steelers for scout.com. The Office, LOST, weightlifting, ultimate frisbee, grilling, Duke basketball, and all Pittsburgh pro sports teams are his greatest passions."

I don't read anything there about playing the game, coaching the game, scouting the game on a higher level....he sounds to me like a fan who is turning is passion into a bit of a career, and Good for Him! 

 

Not to take away from him, a guy can be a fan and educate himself, put in the time, analyze the film, and so forth.  But it is worth asking what makes him SOLID, more than several people here who also watch film, put in the time, educate themselves.

 

 

 

Exactly Hapless - we’ll put.

 

I will also say creative content and unique analysis screams to me someone not afraid to put BS out there to drum up clicks.  It does not scream a guy with deep understanding of the game or what scouts are looking for.

 

He is a click bait player in the modern world.

[Wayne Arnold]

2 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Don't confuse where he was rated with where he was predicted to go in the draft.

 

Ledyard himself, who had Allen "rated" as a 3rd round prospect, said in the same GR-55 segment that he predicted he would go in the top 10 for sure, or something like that.

 

His point being that NFL teams just can't hold off on a guy like Allen b/c they foolishly overvalue traits/talents and don't look at the whole picture of whether or not a QB prospect is likely to succeed in the NFL.

 

He is basically saying if you view Allen objectively, he is a 3rd round lottery ticket.  If you want to predict how NFL teams will view him in the draft, he'll be picked in the top 10.  

 

Most analysts had similar things to say about him.

 

Lots of Bills fans focus on the "tremendous upside" of Allen, but fail to remember that you must multiple that by the likelihood of success in hitting that upside, which is very low.

 

On aggregate, Allen is a traditional, lower round, high risk, likely to fail, gamble.

 

Stop dodging and own it. You said "many, if not most analysts 'expert draft analysts' had him as a 3rd round type project." Where are all of these expert draft analysts you speak of? 

 

We get it about Ledyard - his list is a "most likely to succeed in the NFL" ranking and I'm sure his past record is unmatched and impeccable. Probably makes millions off of his evaluations.

 

But "many, if not most analysts" would indicate...what, 50 people?

 

Please list those 50 people who considered Allen a 3rd round or later pick.

[Jamie Mueller]

30 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Orlovsky harps on this one play as the basis for crapping on Allen. Patented group-think mentality. Proof that former NFL players are not at all immune to it.

Orlovsky was one damn fine quarterback too.  Makes him an excellent judge of the situation.  

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Jamie Mueller said:

Orlovsky was one damn fine quarterback too.  Makes him an excellent judge of the situation.  

 

Mike Mayock loves Allen, but calls him a project.  He never played QB at all.  Should we value his opinion? 

[Wayne Arnold]

4 minutes ago, Jamie Mueller said:

Orlovsky was one damn fine quarterback too.  Makes him an excellent judge of the situation.  

 

How good or bad Orlovsky was as a player has nothing to do with it.

[John from Riverside]

23 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Don't confuse where he was rated with where he was predicted to go in the draft.

 

Ledyard himself, who had Allen "rated" as a 3rd round prospect, said in the same GR-55 segment that he predicted he would go in the top 10 for sure, or something like that.

 

His point being that NFL teams just can't hold off on a guy like Allen b/c they foolishly overvalue traits/talents and don't look at the whole picture of whether or not a QB prospect is likely to succeed in the NFL.

 

He is basically saying if you view Allen objectively, he is a 3rd round lottery ticket.  If you want to predict how NFL teams will view him in the draft, he'll be picked in the top 10.  

 

Most analysts had similar things to say about him.

 

Lots of Bills fans focus on the "tremendous upside" of Allen, but fail to remember that you must multiple that by the likelihood of success in hitting that upside, which is very low.

 

On aggregate, Allen is a traditional, lower round, high risk, likely to fail, gamble.

 

 

Give the names of the “most” that had him a 3rd round prospect or STOP

[Doc Brown]

He had a 2nd round grade on Carson Wentz in 2016 (who I keep hearing Allen comparison too) and rated him as the 4th QB in the draft after Goff, Lynch and Cardale Jones.  He also had Dak Prescott as a 6th round projection.  To his credit though, he had Watson as #1 on his board last year (mid range 1st) in front of Trubisky (late 1st), Mahomes (early 2nd), and Kizer (mid to late 2nd).  Time will tell on whether he got that class correct, but it's looking good so far.  I'm more on Ledyard's side when it comes to Josh Allen, but I hope to god I am wrong.

 

4. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State – 2nd Round

I’m a big fan of Wentz’s game, but the NDSU quarterback’s rise to “top ten” notoriety on many analysts’ boards is a bit much. Everything happens too slowly in the pocket for Wentz, whose stance and accuracy will need some work at the next level. His arm and ability to make tough throws will likely entice a team enough to get him selected in the top 15 picks come April 28.

 

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2016/04/11/2016-nfl-draft-big-board-final-quarterback-rankings/

https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/ledyards-2017-nfl-draft-positional-rankings-quarterbacks/

 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Mike Mayock loves Allen, but calls him a project.  He never played QB at all.  Should we value his opinion? 

Also, Mayock rated Blaine Gabbert higher Cam Newton at their draft? Does that completely destroy any of his future draft ratings.

 

there has almost become an Allen/ McBeane cult developing where every opinion that doesn’t say everything that they do isn’t great is wrong.  I am willing to trust them on defense, especially defensive back.  But what have they ever done to blindly trust them with offense, especially qb?  

 

I want them to be right but it’s more about hope than anything.  While there are no guarantees with qbs, Allen showed some real question marks in a below average college conference.  It’s ok to have doubts.

 

this pick will either prove McBeane are geniuses or complete morons. I don’t think there is really an in between.

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Also, Mayock rated Blaine Gabbert higher Cam Newton at their draft? Does that completely destroy any of his future draft ratings.

 

there has almost become an Allen/ McBeane cult developing where every opinion that doesn’t say everything that they do isn’t great is wrong.  I am willing to trust them on defense, especially defensive back.  But what have they ever done to blindly trust them with offense, especially qb?  

 

I want them to be right but it’s more about hope than anything.  While there are no guarantees with qbs, Allen showed some real question marks in a below average college conference.  It’s ok to have doubts.

 

this pick will either prove McBeane are geniuses or complete morons. I don’t think there is really an in between.

 

Indeed. 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

He had a 2nd round grade on Carson Wentz in 2016 (who I keep hearing Allen comparison too) and rated him as the 4th QB in the draft after Goff, Lynch and Cardale Jones.  He also had Dak Prescott as a 6th round projection.  To his credit though, he had Watson as #1 on his board last year (mid range 1st) in front of Trubisky (late 1st), Mahomes (early 2nd), and Kizer (mid to late 2nd).  Time will tell on whether he got that class correct, but it's looking good so far.  I'm more on Ledyard's side when it comes to Josh Allen, but I hope to god I am wrong.

 

4. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State – 2nd Round

I’m a big fan of Wentz’s game, but the NDSU quarterback’s rise to “top ten” notoriety on many analysts’ boards is a bit much. Everything happens too slowly in the pocket for Wentz, whose stance and accuracy will need some work at the next level. His arm and ability to make tough throws will likely entice a team enough to get him selected in the top 15 picks come April 28.

 

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2016/04/11/2016-nfl-draft-big-board-final-quarterback-rankings/

https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/ledyards-2017-nfl-draft-positional-rankings-quarterbacks/

 

While I think Wentz is really good, given what Foles was able to do, it could just be a great system for a qb.  Wentz got drafted to a really good situation.

 

man, Schwartz was really good.

[Jamie Mueller]

10 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

How good or bad Orlovsky was as a player has nothing to do with it.

 

My point was... it wouldn't be too hard to find a messed up play on tape for any QB who ever played the game.  Although the pivot is generally blamed whenever he throws the ball to nowhere... or worse to the other team... it's always difficult to really know who made the mistake on the play.  I'll bet we can find at least one play on tape where Dan Orlovsky looks really bad. I doubt that he'd be happy to accept that one play as being representative of his entire career... or his abilities as a quarterback.

[Wayne Arnold]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

there has almost become an Allen/ McBeane cult developing where every opinion that doesn’t say everything that they do isn’t great is wrong.

 

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Indeed. 

 

That must be it. Can't just be about Allen. Must be a developing pro-McBeane cult.

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

While I think Wentz is really good, given what Foles was able to do, it could just be a great system for a qb.  Wentz got drafted to a really good situation.

 

man, Schwartz was really good.

That's the biggest question mark going into the season for me.  Daboll and Culley's ability to properly develop Allen.  I honestly have no clue of their competence.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

 

That must be it. Can't just be about Allen. Must be a developing pro-McBeane cult.

I mean I get it because they broke the drought. So obviously people are feeling great about them.  Personally, I thought that was a Jauron 7-9 team that got really really lucky (which shows how bad the last 17 years were).

 

but if they are right about Allen, I will be the David Koresh of the McBeane cult (hopefully, without the fbi).

[26CornerBlitz]

5 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

That must be it. Can't just be about Allen. Must be a developing pro-McBeane cult.

 

It's about him too with many having visceral reactions to legitimate criticism of Allen. 

[Wayne Arnold]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean I get it because they broke the drought. So obviously people are feeling great about them.  Personally, I thought that was a Jauron 7-9 team that got really really lucky (which shows how bad the last 17 years were).

 

but if they are right about Allen, I will be the David Koresh of the McBeane cult (hopefully, without the fbi).

 

8 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

It's about him too with many having visceral reactions to legitimate criticism of Allen. 

 

I saw some good and some bad from McDermott last season. I'm not willing to crown him yet. And I have no idea how to evaluate Beane at this point other than he speaks well.

 

I go by what I see. In Josh Allen I see an imperfect-yet-supremely-talented quarterback who had to carry a poor offense with a horribly outdated, easy-to-defend and predictable system on his shoulders and performed extremely well despite those hurdles, achieving things at the Wyoming football program not witnessed in decades.

 

I also saw a four-month-long group-think Josh Allen bashfest from social-media private NFL evaluators that the general public swallowed hook, line and sinker. These evaluators heard about a big kid with poor numbers at a mid-major who was possibly going to be the #1 pick in the draft and thought, "I'll show you why this kid is overrated" and pointed out every negative as their own confirmation bias, patting eachother's backs throughout.

 

As a result, Allen has unfairly become the symbol for old-school scouting methods and everything the growing moneyball/analytical scouting community are against. That not only affected Allen's public perception as a football player but also his draft stock.

 

None of that has anything to do with thinking McBeane can do no wrong.

[John from Riverside]

33 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Also, Mayock rated Blaine Gabbert higher Cam Newton at their draft? Does that completely destroy any of his future draft ratings.

 

there has almost become an Allen/ McBeane cult developing where every opinion that doesn’t say everything that they do isn’t great is wrong.  I am willing to trust them on defense, especially defensive back.  But what have they ever done to blindly trust them with offense, especially qb?  

 

I want them to be right but it’s more about hope than anything.  While there are no guarantees with qbs, Allen showed some real question marks in a below average college conference.  It’s ok to have doubts.

 

this pick will either prove McBeane are geniuses or complete morons. I don’t think there is really an in between.

When you take a team to the playoff year in your first year after 17 years

 

you deserve a bit of trust

Edited May 12, 2018 by John from Riverside
H