SoTier Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said: You could probably come to some of those conclusions for every position, the higher the player is drafted the more likely of a success they will be, cause usually the better players get drafted early. The problem here is that it doesn't matter if they are drafted in the top 10 or top 100, if they aren't good they won't be successful. There may be a bunch of good prospects available this year, but are these guys true franchise guys or just the best of whats available this year? Every year QBs get drafted earlier then they should because teams are desperate to try and get one. Would everyone here be willing to do whatever it takes to move up to #2 so they could draft Jameis Winston? or Trubisky? Or Marriotta? Does anyone see those guys as 10-15 year franchise starters? Every year there are guys who are viewed as potential franchise QBs that flop. Bradford, Kaepernick, Smith, Were #1 overall picks that were supposed to be franchise guys, RGIII was supposed to be another franchise guy that was talked about as a potential #1st overall. He looked really good in his first year then flopped out of the league. Thats why it may still be early to be praising the Rams, Texans, and Eagles for finding their franchise guy. Its understandable that everyone wants a franchise elite QB, but you can't get one (no matter where you move up to draft from) if there isn't one there. There would be no arguements from anyone about moving up if there was a clear cut elite franchise guy available, but right now you can't find anyone who can even agree on the ranking of the top 4-5 guys this year. This is the crux of the problem. Most drafts have 1 or 2 outstanding prospects that all the teams agree are top drawer ... and sometimes those "can't miss guys" do miss. The 2018 crop isn't jumbled because there are multiple great prospects but because all of the prospects have enough faults to make them all risky picks. One of them may be successful but it's more likely that most of them will fail. This crop is being pushed by agents' hype and teams' desperation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 37 minutes ago, Augie said: I have a sister in law like that..... She says something is a fact when it is an opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman1876 Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 24 minutes ago, SoTier said: This is the crux of the problem. Most drafts have 1 or 2 outstanding prospects that all the teams agree are top drawer ... and sometimes those "can't miss guys" do miss. The 2018 crop isn't jumbled because there are multiple great prospects but because all of the prospects have enough faults to make them all risky picks. One of them may be successful but it's more likely that most of them will fail. This crop is being pushed by agents' hype and teams' desperation. The Draft has seen 2 can’t miss prospects at QB, Elway and Luck. These 4 would be in the discussion as top guys in most drafts. These 4 have faults, what makes the year jumbled is that they are all very good, no one is Elway excellent but all are in the Eli, Wentz, Stafford range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, MJS said: She says something is a fact when it is an opinion? She seems to think ALL her opinions are facts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman1876 Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Augie said: She seems to think ALL her opinions are facts. Facts look like opinions when you decide to ignore the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said: If you ignore that coaches never give anyone that isn't a 1st or 2nd round draft choice an opportunity to start, you can come up with a whole world of poor conclusions. Including using things like dividing the number of starts by the total number of picks. You might be asking yourself of those players not drafted 1st or 2nd - and starting in the NFL - what is the likelihood of those players getting into the playoffs? Why is it that there are so many 1st or 2nd round QBs in the NFL ... but so few playing in the playoffs?? It's actually hidden right in the middle of your "facts". The average lifetime of a HC is three years. That should tell you all you need to know about someone that is willing to take a chance on anyone the GM didn't draft a QB highly. Peterman says hi from The land of pick 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, Batman1876 said: Facts look like opinions when you decide to ignore the facts. It would be easier if she didn’t have an opinion on everything! Don’t get me wrong, I like her, but you have to learn what you’re dealing with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 (edited) 26 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: Peterman says hi from The land of pick 6. Yeah ... well, Peterman is one of the examples I used to make my point. 5th round QBs simply don't get much of a chance to start in the NFL. If they blow up, even a little bit, the pressure throughout the league to drop them is immense. It's world of incredible groupthink, where the obvious but contrarian thoughts are tossed aside. It's clear you should almost always go for 2. It's clear that you should almost never, ever punt if the yardage is less than five yards. Statistics bear this out, but nobody is willing to do it. You just don't start a 5th round QB. If your organization has invested a high round pick, they go. If that guy doesn't make it, you look for a guy some other team drafted in round 1. Never, ever give the shot to the guy drafted later. The original poster made some sort of myth about QBs never progress, they just age. You can't grow on the bench year after year; it's like a sort of circular logic that seems to prove itself. Edited March 21, 2018 by Tyrod's friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman1876 Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said: If you ignore that coaches never give anyone that isn't a 1st or 2nd round draft choice an opportunity to start, you can come up with a whole world of poor conclusions. Including using things like dividing the number of starts by the total number of picks. You might be asking yourself of those players not drafted 1st or 2nd - and starting in the NFL - what is the likelihood of those players getting into the playoffs? Why is it that there are so many 1st or 2nd round QBs in the NFL ... but so few playing in the playoffs?? It's actually hidden right in the middle of your "facts". The average lifetime of a HC is three years. That should tell you all you need to know about someone that is willing to take a chance on anyone the GM didn't draft a QB highly. Coaches have shown they are willing to start the best player regardless of draft spot, Tyrod and Orton over EJ for example. Later round picks do get fewer reps but that problem is unavoidable since reps are a limited resource. As for playoff teams this year 8 had first round QBs, 1 second round, 2 sixth and one undrafted. In 2016 7/12 were first rounders. 7 in 2015, 8 in 2014, 7 in 2013, 8 in 12, 7 in 11, 8 in 10, 8 in 09, and 7 in 08. For 10 years about 2 of 3 playoff teams had a first round QB. They get reps because scouts know what they are doing and resources are invested in the most promising players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman1876 Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 25 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said: Yeah ... well, Peterman is one of the examples I used to make my point. 5th round QBs simply don't get much of a chance to start in the NFL. If they blow up, even a little bit, the pressure throughout the league to drop them is immense. It's world of incredible groupthink, where the obvious but contrarian thoughts are tossed aside. It's clear you should almost always go for 2. It's clear that you should almost never, ever punt if the yardage is less than five yards. Statistics bear this out, but nobody is willing to do it. You just don't start a 5th round QB. If your organization has invested a high round pick, they go. If that guy doesn't make it, you look for a guy some other team drafted in round 1. Never, ever give the shot to the guy drafted later. The original poster made some sort of myth about QBs never progress, they just age. You can't grow on the bench year after year; it's like a sort of circular logic that seems to prove itself. I didn’t say they just age, I said. they acclimate to the pro game and once they do they are who they are. Tyrod, Fitz, Trent, Losman, Cassel, Kaep, Glennon and the countless hordes who’s ceiling is backup QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 49 minutes ago, Batman1876 said: Coaches have shown they are willing to start the best player regardless of draft spot, Tyrod and Orton over EJ for example. Later round picks do get fewer reps but that problem is unavoidable since reps are a limited resource. As for playoff teams this year 8 had first round QBs, 1 second round, 2 sixth and one undrafted. In 2016 7/12 were first rounders. 7 in 2015, 8 in 2014, 7 in 2013, 8 in 12, 7 in 11, 8 in 10, 8 in 09, and 7 in 08. For 10 years about 2 of 3 playoff teams had a first round QB. They get reps because scouts know what they are doing and resources are invested in the most promising players. I appreciate your opinion. I believe the facts show that you are wrong; most of the greatest NFL QBs only got there chance because of injury to starters and using EJ Manuel - a failed starter and clearly no longer having anyone's faith - really only solidifies my feelings. The list of QBs that didn't get a shot until someone was injured is pretty impressive - off the top of my head, 3 HOF QBs. Resources invested are sunk costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman1876 Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said: I appreciate your opinion. I believe the facts show that you are wrong; most of the greatest NFL QBs only got there chance because of injury to starters and using EJ Manuel - a failed starter and clearly no longer having anyone's faith - really only solidifies my feelings. The list of QBs that didn't get a shot until someone was injured is pretty impressive - off the top of my head, 3 HOF QBs. Resources invested are sunk costs. The fact that EJ was quickly moved on from, giving others a chance is the point, what did they do with that chance, nothing. How many QB get hurt each year how many of their backups make it, very few. It’s not about anecdotes it’s about overall probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 hours ago, Batman1876 said: There seems to be a lot of myths surrounding drafting a QB. These are the ones I could think of please add your own. Myth- Its just throwing darts and hoping for a bulls-eye. Fact- Its not random chance it is a hypothesis. In fact NFL front offices have been very successful at picking the more promising prospects first. When it comes to First round Qbs its rare that a successful QB is picked after a bust. Myth-Drafting a Bust at QB sets your team back 4 years. Fact- Not having a QB is what sets your team back. The rookie wage scale has reduced the impact of drafting a bust. Without the long term high dollar contracts of the past it is easier to move on from a bust. Myth- Building a roster is better than Trading multiple picks to move up for a QB Fact- The median coaching tenure in the NFL is 3 years. When coaches change the roster changes with it to fit the new scheme and approach. The number one reason coaches are fired is poor QB play. Meaning if you build a roster and hope to solve the QB problem later its likely that your roster will be broken up when a new coach is hired. Myth- Wait till the later rounds and develop a Guy, its an equally good option Fact- Over the past 20 years quality QBs have been found in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds. A single QB has been found in the 5th 6th and 7th rounds. The odds of success however are very low. 20% of Qbs from the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds become long term starters and about 5% have become franchise guys. In the last three rounds there is Brady and no one else. The odds are negligible. Myth- Let him sit and develop, he'll be just as good as a top guy. Fact- QBs rarely develop, they mostly just acclimate. They don't pick up new skills they simply translate their old ones. Players who relied on being freak athletes and never even truly learned the college game are the clearest example. Myth: your facts are facts fact: your facts are not facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 58 minutes ago, Batman1876 said: The fact that EJ was quickly moved on from, giving others a chance is the point, what did they do with that chance, nothing. How many QB get hurt each year how many of their backups make it, very few. It’s not about anecdotes it’s about overall probabilities. If it's not about anecdotes, then why bring up EJM? Actually I think it is about anecdotes. It's about HoF QBs needing to get a break, while Vinny Testaverde and Sam Bradford play forever because they were drafted #1 overall. I can't think of a single late round QB that had a bad, initial year that has ever played again in the NFL. Can you? Hell I have a hard time thinking of a late round pick that was allowed the space to have a bad 6 game stretch. At the end of the day, our two points hinge on whether or not 4th and 5th round picks have equal access to the position. I think your position is, well, frankly seems ludicrous to me. You seem to think that the merit system prevails in football, all evidence and common sense to the contrary. The NFL isn't structured that way, from the top down. It might be changing, but certainly that is not the history of this league to be thinking outside the box. Groupthink is what the NFL is about. And someone with a 3 year shelf life isn't about to challenge the status quo in this league. If you like numbers, here are some. Between 2016 and 2017, if you look at the won-loss record of all the QBs that started more than 7 games or more you have a total base of 910 games. QBs that were drafted either in the 1st or 2nd round played in almost 71% of those games according to what I found. But they had a worse winning percentage (52% versus the 55% of the later draftees). Over the time period, they played roughly the same number of playoff games and their record was roughly even. It strikes me that there is some issue here. If ability can be defined by winning, and the late round QBs are winning more than the 1sts and 2nds, then why aren't they having better access to the games to play? Why is it a guy like Nick Foles can't have a starting job in the NFL - a guy that put up the best season in recent history outside of Rodgers? Why is it that Sam Bradford got a $20MM contract from sitting on the Minnesota bench, but Case Keenum led them to the NFC Championship game and got an AAS of $18MM? (Below, 1 was used to designate all QBs at 1 or 2, 6 for all other). BTW: Pleasure chatting with you. Row Labels Sum of W Sum of L 1 339 306 0.525581 0.708791 6 146 119 0.550943 (blank) Grand Total 485 425 910 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideRightRevenge Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 13 hours ago, kdiggz said: Fact: we have never picked a QB with our 1st pick Fact: we have never picked a QB in the top 10 Fact: most of the successful QB's come from a team using their first pick in the top 10 picks of the draft This pretty much sums up the entire mediocre existence of the Buffalo Bills franchise As it relates to Fact # 1 .. please see the 2013 Bills draft .. EJ Manuel at pick 16 was our first pick in the 2013 draft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman1876 Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 It’s a small sample size but ever since the rookie wage scale teams have not been shy about moving away from busts which gives lesser prospects those shots. I’m not saying that later round guys get equal shots I’m saying coaches want to win and will put in the best QB to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 53 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said: As it relates to Fact # 1 .. please see the 2013 Bills draft .. EJ Manuel at pick 16 was our first pick in the 2013 draft False, our first pick was traded to the Rams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greeneblitz Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Our fans have been snakebit for so many years by having Brady killing us twice a year that we think any old late round pick will work out, we obsess over guys like Craig Nall , Jeff Tuel and Kelly Holcomb because of this. I could never understand why almost every other franchise drafts a QB high, spends 3 years dedicated to developing him and then makes a decision and we do all other types of weird **** and it never comes close to working, fans are still calling for AJ McCarron to "get a shot" instead of drafting a top guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pimp on da' net Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 (edited) 20 hours ago, apuszczalowski said: You could probably come to some of those conclusions for every position, the higher the player is drafted the more likely of a success they will be, cause usually the better players get drafted early. The problem here is that it doesn't matter if they are drafted in the top 10 or top 100, if they aren't good they won't be successful. There may be a bunch of good prospects available this year, but are these guys true franchise guys or just the best of whats available this year? Every year QBs get drafted earlier then they should because teams are desperate to try and get one. Would everyone here be willing to do whatever it takes to move up to #2 so they could draft Jameis Winston? or Trubisky? Or Marriotta? Does anyone see those guys as 10-15 year franchise starters? Every year there are guys who are viewed as potential franchise QBs that flop. Bradford, Kaepernick, Smith, Were #1 overall picks that were supposed to be franchise guys, RGIII was supposed to be another franchise guy that was talked about as a potential #1st overall. He looked really good in his first year then flopped out of the league. Thats why it may still be early to be praising the Rams, Texans, and Eagles for finding their franchise guy. Its understandable that everyone wants a franchise elite QB, but you can't get one (no matter where you move up to draft from) if there isn't one there. There would be no arguements from anyone about moving up if there was a clear cut elite franchise guy available, but right now you can't find anyone who can even agree on the ranking of the top 4-5 guys this year. Edited March 21, 2018 by pimp on da' net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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