Glad to get off the snide, but was it worth it?

[MC Hamburg]

This is why the Bills have never got a good QB since Kelly. Seems to me that over the years the Bills would be meddling in the middle of the pack with the average of roughly an 8-8 record give or take. We would never get a first/second overall pick because we would always be picking 10th -20th. We would never tank for a QB even though we have had plenty of chances to do so..... and to just lose out on the good QB by a few picks because we won just a little too much on another average year...here we go again...this was the year we were going to rebuild and have a pass with the new Coach and GM with Sam Darnold in site...but just like the rest of the years our timing was off again...now we pick 21/22 and there will not be a QB available because 21 teams before us lost more than us...seems like the same old scenario to me...bad timing or ignorance? let me know!

Edited January 31, 2018 by MC Hamburg

[Kirby Jackson]

It was absolutely worth it. Do you want Sam Darnold? According to the draft value chart picks 21-22 get you up to somewhere between picks 3 & 4. You don’t lose to get a QB. If you lose and end up with a QB great. Build your team, learn to win and get a QB.

 

Here are the 12 playoff starting QBs and how they were acquired:

Alex Smith - traded for a 2nd and a conditional pick

Mariota - drafted 2

Ryan - Drafted 3

Taylor - scrapheap FA

Foles - scrapheap FA

Keenum - scrapheap FA

Brees - FA that was less desired than Culpepper

Bortles - drafted 3

Roethelisberger - drafted 11

Brady - 6th round pick

Goff - drafted 1

Cam - drafted 1

 

Obviously some guys went at the top (and that includes Mariota & Bortles) but it isn’t a must. You don’t just win because you have a QB. It’s important but you don’t stop everything until you have it figured out. Look at the Jags, they kept building and now are a QB away from being Super Bowl favorites (behind the Pats). 

[pennstate10]

Unfortunately, your initial premise is 100% wrong.  

Kelly was drafted 14th, after the Bills finished 4-5.  Pretty close to an 8-8 record.

[Thurman#1]

"Schneid," I believe. Googled it right now and it's from an old card game where you have to get off the Schneider.

 

Anyway, to me, no, not worth it.

 

I'd much rather have won four games and been right in the mix to get Darnold or Rosen at their natural spot or with a much smaller tradeup.

 

The end of the streak would have come. Good shots at great QBs don't come along all that often.

[BringBackOrton]

20 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It was absolutely worth it. Do you want Sam Darnold? According to the draft value chart picks 21-22 get you up to somewhere between picks 3 & 4. You don’t lose to get a QB. If you lose and end up with a QB great. Build your team, learn to win and get a QB.

 

Here are the 12 playoff starting QBs and how they were acquired:

Alex Smith - traded for a 2nd and a conditional pick

Mariota - drafted 2

Ryan - Drafted 3

Taylor - scrapheap FA

Foles - scrapheap FA

Keenum - scrapheap FA

Brees - FA that was less desired than Culpepper

Bortles - drafted 3

Roethelisberger - drafted 11

Brady - 6th round pick

Goff - drafted 1

Cam - drafted 1

 

Obviously some guys went at the top (and that includes Mariota & Bortles) but it isn’t a must. You don’t just win because you have a QB. It’s important but you don’t stop everything until you have it figured out. Look at the Jags, they kept building and now are a QB away from being Super Bowl favorites (behind the Pats). 

Replacing Wentz with Foles is a little disingenuous, no?  Alex Smith was also drafted #1.

Edited January 31, 2018 by jmc12290

[KDIGGZ]

The best way to get a QB is to draft your favorite one in the 1st round. Much much higher success rate and lower cost. This was the year to get a QB. We didn't have a team that was seriously going to compete. They didn't have to lose on purpose. I don't think they expected to win as many games as they did early on and before they knew it they were in the playoff hunt (mostly because of a weak conference). They tried to go to Peterman but he was historically terrible and public pressure was to go back to Tyrod and try and sneak into the playoffs. I would have been happy to stick with Peterman and maybe only win 1 more game and have a shot at one of the top QB's in the draft. It was fun to make the playoffs and break the drought but we are going to pay for it if we can't get a QB. We are stuck at .500 +-1 game until we do

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, MC Hamburg said:

This is why the Bills have never got a good QB since Kelly. Seems to me that over the years the Bills would be meddling in the middle of the pack with the average of roughly an 8-8 record give or take. We would never get a first/second overall pick because we would always be picking 10th -20th. We would never tank for a QB even though we have had plenty of chances to do so..... and to just lose out on the good QB by a few picks because we won just a little too much on another average year...here we go again...this was the year we were going to rebuild and have a pass with the new Coach and GM with Sam Darnold in site...but just like the rest of the years our timing was off again...now we pick 21/22 and there will not be a QB available because 21 teams before us lost more than us...seems like the same old scenario to me...bad timing or ignorance? let me know!

 

This has been the Bills story - "wah, poor us, we're stuck in QB purgatory, too bad to win and too good to get a top draft pick"

 

I bought it for a while.  I really did.

 

Now I think it's BS.  The reason the Bills don't have a QB is because they haven't made it a serious priority.  It took 8 years between Kelly's retirement and the Bills using a single draft pick, any draft pick on QB (#22 on Losman in 2004).  In the last decade, the Bills have used a grand total of 2 picks in the first 3 rounds (#92 in the 3rd round on Trent Edwards, and #16 in the first on EJ Manuel). 

 

That's IT.  That's all the draft shots we've taken.  In the same time frame, the NE Patriots***, who have a QB, have used 4 picks in the first 3 rounds.

 

Meanwhile other teams with middle-of-the-pack records like the Eagles and Vikings manage to sign, trade for, and draft promising QB.

 

Yes, some if it is luck, but in part, you make your own luck

 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Replacing Wentz with Foles is a little disingenuous, no?  Alex Smith was also drafted #1.

Not really as Foles has played the playoff games. Smith was also the backup on his own team when he left. That’s the point. Guys shake loose occasionally (Peyton, Cousins, Smith, Bradford, Brees, etc..). That isn’t exactly a check mark for the “tank to get a QB crowd.” The Bills have the assets to go up and get one but also have a good enough team to attract someone like Cousins. 

[BringBackOrton]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Not really as Foles has played the playoff games. Smith was also the backup on his own team when he left. That’s the point. Guys shake loose occasionally (Peyton, Cousins, Smith, Bradford, Brees, etc..). That isn’t exactly a check mark for the “tank to get a QB crowd.” The Bills have the assets to go up and get one but also have a good enough team to attract someone like Cousins. 

Right, but it's not like he REALLY got them there.  It's technically true that he played the playoffs, but a little disingenuous.

 

In fact, I could argue that 7 of the 12 QB's most responsible for making the playoffs were drafted in the top 3.  8 of the 12 were drafted in the top 11.

 

That's QUITE a check mark for tanking for a QB.

Edited January 31, 2018 by jmc12290

[RochesterRob]

38 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It was absolutely worth it. Do you want Sam Darnold? According to the draft value chart picks 21-22 get you up to somewhere between picks 3 & 4. You don’t lose to get a QB. If you lose and end up with a QB great. Build your team, learn to win and get a QB.

 

Here are the 12 playoff starting QBs and how they were acquired:

Alex Smith - traded for a 2nd and a conditional pick

Mariota - drafted 2

Ryan - Drafted 3

Taylor - scrapheap FA

Foles - scrapheap FA

Keenum - scrapheap FA

Brees - FA that was less desired than Culpepper

Bortles - drafted 3

Roethelisberger - drafted 11

Brady - 6th round pick

Goff - drafted 1

Cam - drafted 1

 

Obviously some guys went at the top (and that includes Mariota & Bortles) but it isn’t a must. You don’t just win because you have a QB. It’s important but you don’t stop everything until you have it figured out. Look at the Jags, they kept building and now are a QB away from being Super Bowl favorites (behind the Pats). 

  I agree with your Jags statement.  You don't pass up what your board tells you are superior prospects at other positions for a QB you are not sure about year after year.  Quite similar to us around 1987 although it was signing Kelly versus a drafted QB in 86/87.  We did the right thing by taking Bruce Smith, Will Wolford, etc. in the years prior when our front office saw them as the superior value versus any QB in the same draft positions.  Sometimes the QB gets figured out early in a new regime and sometimes he can be one of the last pieces in place for a serious run.  

Edited January 31, 2018 by RochesterRob

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This has been the Bills story - "wah, poor us, we're stuck in QB purgatory, too bad to win and too good to get a top draft pick"

 

I bought it for a while.  I really did.

 

Now I think it's BS.  The reason the Bills don't have a QB is because they haven't made it a serious priority.  It took 8 years between Kelly's retirement and the Bills using a single draft pick, any draft pick on QB (#22 on Losman in 2004).  In the last decade, the Bills have used a grand total of 2 picks in the first 3 rounds (#92 in the 3rd round on Trent Edwards, and #16 in the first on EJ Manuel). 

 

That's IT.  That's all the draft shots we've taken.  In the same time frame, the NE Patriots***, who have a QB, have used 4 picks in the first 3 rounds.

 

Meanwhile other teams with middle-of-the-pack records like the Eagles and Vikings manage to sign, trade for, and draft promising QB.

 

Yes, some if it is luck, but in part, you make your own luck

 

They used a 2nd rounder on Todd Collins in 1995.  They traded a 1st for RJ in 1998 and had Flutie do well for a few years.  Then they traded a 1st for Bledsoe in 2002.  They've addressed it, just with the wrong guys.

[KDIGGZ]

1 minute ago, jmc12290 said:

Right, but it's not like he REALLY got them there.  It's technically true that he played the playoffs, but a little disingenuous.

 

In fact, I could argue that 7 of the 12 QB's most responsible for making the playoffs were drafted in the top 3.  8 of the 12 were drafted in the top 11.

 

That's QUITE a check mark for tanking for a QB.

Good QB's are mostly taken in the 1st round. Don't let anyone tell you different. Yes some guys like Brady and Dak slip through the cracks but that's like winning the lottery. The majority of guys are the guys we all know were good coming out of college. A thread like the one about Peterman and Tanner Lee had me cracking up. So we are to believe that the Bills future is in the hand of 2 nobodies? Kill me now. We know who the good QB's are who are coming out. Get one and take this seriously!

[BringBackOrton]

2 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

Good QB's are mostly taken in the 1st round. Don't let anyone tell you different. Yes some guys like Brady and Dak slip through the cracks but that's like winning the lottery. The majority of guys are the guys we all know were good coming out of college. A thread like the one about Peterman and Tanner Lee had me cracking up. So we are to believe that the Bills future is in the hand of 2 nobodies? Kill me now. We know who the good QB's are who are coming out. Get one and take this seriously!

I think there were more active QB's drafted in the top 3 in the playoffs than on the teams that didn't make the playoffs.

 

12 teams versus 20 and there's more top 3 QB's in the 12?  Get those QB's high and often.

Edited January 31, 2018 by jmc12290

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Right, but it's not like he REALLY got them there.  It's technically true that he played the playoffs, but a little disingenuous.

 

In fact, I could argue that 7 of the 12 QB's most responsible for making the playoffs were drafted in the top 3.  8 of the 12 were drafted in the top 11.

 

That's QUITE a check mark for tanking for a QB.

Not at all in that he won 2 playoff games and is playing in the Super Bowl. He is their playoff QB. Obviously Wentz is great but it is beyond reasonable to think that Foles has been better the last 2 games than Wentz would have been. Foles has done something that no one since Montana has in the playoffs!! They aren’t winning despite him (like you could argue the Jags and Titans do). 

 

Except you are completely overlooking the guys that moved. Smith isn’t on his first team, neither is Brees or Keenum or Foles or Taylor. This offseason both Smith and Cousins will move on to new teams. Bradford is going to move and even Foles could be on a new team. Hell there is even a minuscule chance that Eli or Luck is moved. You don’t (or didn’t) need to tank to get any of those guys. That holds especially true when the value of your 1st round picks is somewhere between the 3rd & 4th pick. You don’t need to tank to get up and get a guy.

 

If we are upset that we would rather miss the playoffs and get Darnold & Billy Price (as an example) instead of just Darnold I don’t know what to tell you. If you like one of the young guys, go an get him. It’s not the complicated and the Colts at 3 are a natural trade partner. 

3 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

I think there were more active QB's drafted in the top 3 in the playoffs than on the teams that didn't make the playoffs.

 

12 teams versus 20 and there's more top 3 QB's in the 12?  Get those QB's high and often.

Just to be clear, we are in agreement that the guys in the top 3 are typically the best players. The point is that we can go draft a guy like that or we can pick up a guy that has had success in the NFL already. Smith, Bradford, Cousins, etc... Going to the playoffs this year hasn’t stopped the Bills from getting a good QB.

[BringBackOrton]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Not at all in that he won 2 playoff games and is playing in the Super Bowl. He is their playoff QB. Obviously Wentz is great but it is beyond reasonable to think that Foles has been better the last 2 games than Wentz would have been. Foles has done something that no one since Montana has in the playoffs!! They aren’t winning despite him (like you could argue the Jags and Titans do). 

 

Except you are completely overlooking the guys that moved. Smith isn’t on his first team, neither is Brees or Keenum or Foles or Taylor. This offseason both Smith and Cousins will move on to new teams. Bradford is going to move and even Foles could be on a new team. Hell there is even a minuscule chance that Eli or Luck is moved. You don’t (or didn’t) need to tank to get any of those guys. That holds especially true when the value of your 1st round picks is somewhere between the 3rd & 4th pick. You don’t need to tank to get up and get a guy.

 

If we are upset that we would rather miss the playoffs and get Darnold & Billy Price (as an example) instead of just Darnold I don’t know what to tell you. If you like one of the young guys, go an get him. It’s not the complicated and the Colts at 3 are a natural trade partner. 

Just to be clear, we are in agreement that the guys in the top 3 are typically the best players. The point is that we can go draft a guy like that or we can pick up a guy that has had success in the NFL already. Smith, Bradford, Cousins, etc... Going to the playoffs this year hasn’t stopped the Bills from getting a good QB.

Let's see it happen before we say we can do it.  It takes two to tango.  If the Bills roll with McCown, a second round rookie, and Peterman and end up staying pat at 21 and 22, then you're wrong.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Let's see it happen before we say we can do it.  It takes two to tango.  If the Bills roll with McCown, a second round rookie, and Peterman and end up staying pat at 21 and 22, then you're wrong.

Well, Smith moved since this was posted meaning Cousins will too :).

 

Are the Bills a worse team with McCown, Rudolph and then 2 1sts on the roster? The goal is to get better everywhere. If you can get your QB (which you can this year) great. If you have to tread water for another year so be it. Keep building your roster like Jacksonville did.

 

In terms of 2 to tango the Colts talent is awful. I would think that they’d be happy to add multiple quality players. If the Browns or Broncos sign Cousins that is adds another top 5 pick that can be had and one less team taking a QB in the top 5.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[BringBackOrton]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Well, Smith moved since this was posted meaning Cousins will too :).

 

Are the Bills a worse team with McCown, Rudolph and then 2 1sts on the roster? The goal is to get better everywhere. If you can get your QB (which you can this year) great. If you have to tread water for another year so be it. Keep building your roster like Jacksonville did.

 

In terms of 2 to tango the Colts talent is awful. I would think that they’d be happy to add multiple quality players. If the Browns or Broncos sign Cousins that is adds another top 5 pick that can be had and one less team taking a QB in the top 5.

Jacksonville built their roster with top 5 picks, not top 25.  Jalen Ramsey wasn't sitting there at 21.

 

Are the Bills a worse team with McCown, Rudolph and 2 1sts than McCown and Darnold?  Maybe they are.  Isn't that the argument for trading up for a QB in the first place?

 

When we go up to get our guy or sign Cousins, I'll agree.  If we don't, we missed out for one reason or another.

Edited January 31, 2018 by jmc12290

[RochesterRob]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Well, Smith moved since this was posted meaning Cousins will too :).

 

Are the Bills a worse team with McCown, Rudolph and then 2 1sts on the roster? The goal is to get better everywhere. If you can get your QB (which you can this year) great. If you have to tread water for another year so be it. Keep building your roster like Jacksonville did.

 

In terms of 2 to tango the Colts talent is awful. I would think that they’d be happy to add multiple quality players. If the Browns or Broncos sign Cousins that is adds another top 5 pick that can be had and one less team taking a QB in the top 5.

  I think Elway will make a serious run at Cousins as I suspect that Elway is more than a little embarrassed about last year.  Then the Jets.  

[Ga boy]

42 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

"Schneid," I believe. Googled it right now and it's from an old card game where you have to get off the Schneider.

 

Anyway, to me, no, not worth it.

 

I'd much rather have won four games and been right in the mix to get Darnold or Rosen at their natural spot or with a much smaller tradeup.

 

The end of the streak would have come. Good shots at great QBs don't come along all that often.

Yea I agree 100%;  however, I can see why my fellow fans went gaga over making the playoffs.  I got me some of that gaga too.  But the morning after, we were still in QB purgatory!!??  I would have preferred to have seen what we have in NP.   Maybe we would have still made the playoffs, and now would be having a different conversation about QB.  BTW, I do think NP would have gotten more than 3 points against Jax.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Jacksonville built their roster with top 5 picks, not top 25.  Jalen Ramsey wasn't sitting there at 21.

 

Are the Bills a worse team with McCown, Rudolph and 2 1sts than McCown and Darnold?  Maybe they are.  Isn't that the argument for trading up for a QB in the first place?

 

When we go up to get our guy or sign Cousins, I'll agree.  If we don't, we missed out for one reason or another.

We will have missed it because we chose to. The Bills have the cap space to pay Cousins or the draft capital to move way up. Maybe they decide that it’s a price that they don’t WANT to pay but it isn’t a price that the CAN’T pay. 

6 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I think Elway will make a serious run at Cousins as I suspect that Elway is more than a little embarrassed about last year.  Then the Jets.  

I think Denver or Cleveland. The Browns can just hand him a check and Denver has to do something.