theAteam Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 5 hours ago, BobChalmers said: You do realize if they split with the Pats* in '17 they would have been 10-6, so you're only asking for two more wins better than that? You don't think an upgrade at QB, OC, and all that draft capital could do that? 2 wins aren't easy to come by. I know we had a few games we could've squeaked out but we had just as many we won that could've went the other way as well. Even giving you that, if we both got to 12-4, they probably still win on conference tiebreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 6 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Carson Wentz led the league in 3rd down conversion % with 49.2%. Drew Brees converted 39% of his 3rd downs, good for 15th in the NFL (3 spots lower than Tyrod). 1) what about Red Zone visits and TDs scored in the Red Zine? You really don’t score going from 20 to 20 then gett stopped. 2) does that mean Rico was good with him s play calling? How could they be so good yet be so bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: 1) what about Red Zone visits and TDs scored in the Red Zine? You really don’t score going from 20 to 20 then gett stopped. 2) does that mean Rico was good with him s play calling? How could they be so good yet be so bad? What about them? Those aren't the stats he used. Nobody said anything about our offense was good in any capacity. That doesn't change that ' just someone who can convert %60 of 3rd downs and score 24 points a game.' doesn't exist, and is a completely absurd statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 I asked you. So why are you asking me? my apologies for not following the thread more fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irv Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) One of the bad things about finishing 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 year after year is we never seem to get that holy sh*t dominant guy. But somehow the Pats figure it out with one Holy Sh*t guy. Maybe QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB QB stuttering guy is right. We got our ass wiped by a team that drafts last every year. Edited January 20, 2018 by Badthingsman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 6 hours ago, the skycap said: In the first 4 picks I want DT, QB, CB, DT/LB/EDGE, in that order. While I agree, the problem/issue lies with ‘in that order’. The team has many scouts working diligently through the college season to formulate their ‘Best at’ lists. Then the team brass sits down with all the collected data and puts priority #’s on each player and selectively per position, to set up their draft board. As picks fall, the teams’ list reshuffles accordingly. We may ‘want’ a QB @ 22, but if our guy(s) aren’t there, then who’s the next highest player they rated, regardless of position. I think we’ll be active in FA and last years haul was outstanding And affordable. That would seriously reduce the needs we agree on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 5 hours ago, BobChalmers said: You do realize if they split with the Pats* in '17 they would have been 10-6, so you're only asking for two more wins better than that? You don't think an upgrade at QB, OC, and all that draft capital could do that? This. Although if I'm not mistaken we got a brutal schedule next year, harder than this year looking at it ahead of time. Home Miami New England NY Jets Jacksonville Tennessee Chicago Detroit LA Chargers Away Miami New England NY Jets Houston Indianapolis Green Bay Minnesota Baltimore That's a pretty tough opponent list (obviously a lot can change) A couple stand out as real tough (other than the obvious against ne) -@ Minnesota -@ lambeau -@Baltimore -home jax -home Tenn -home chargers Detroit is always a wild card with Stafford at the helm Houston it all depends on their QB situation Hoping we can sack up and get 10-6 next year though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young34 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 7 hours ago, Tatonka68 said: 1. Quarterback, does not have to be a Drew Brees type, just someone who can convert %60 of 3rd downs and score 24 points a game. Alex Smith, Kurt Cousins, Sam Bradford or Rookie. 2. Maintain a tight secondary, either resign Gaines or draft an acceptable replacement. I would resign Gaines at a reasonable rate if they can. 3. At least one dominant DT who can push the pocket. Hughes still has life on the edge but no interior pocket pressure last year. Maurice Hurst, Derrick Nnadi or Da'Ron Payne. 4. Franchise ILB, Preston Brown had a lot of tackles but made few impact plays.Take your pick of Rashaan Evans, Micah Kiser or Roquan Smith. a 100 + tackle, 4 sack, 4 INT player. If these are all filled the Bills will make the playoffs again and compete for the division. (WHAT DO YOU THINK??) "Just someone who can convert 60% of 3rd downs?" Except, that's not a single damn QB in the entire league this year. Wentz was the closest with 54%, the rest were below 50%, including Brady. So what you're asking for is "just" a HOF QB, better than anyone who currently plays the game? Well ****, sign me up. Also, didn't you make the thread about the Saint win over the Vikings, and why a franchise QB contributed to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderingsquid Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1. QB 2. Stud DE opposite Hughes 3. Stud DL to plug the middle/eat up blocks. A Washington is just not cutting it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iron Maiden Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 9 hours ago, theAteam said: First thing we need is Brady/Belichick to be gone. They went 13-3 this year. Even if we split with them we'd need to go 12-4 to even have a chance with tiebreakers. You can improve all you want but you will need to get over them to take the division. This has been the correct answer for many years...and it's still true...until they leave, we can only get in through the WC.....Brady @ 40 is the front runner for MVP, .... his team is a win away to get to the big game once again.....are we suppose to believe he'll fall of a cliff next year and become Mark Sanchez ?.......I'll believe when I see it....until then, they own the division/Conference..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 You forgot about the part where Bill Belichick and Tom Brady both retire. I see that as a critical factor in our bid to win the AFC East in 2018. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortured Soul Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 19 hours ago, Tatonka68 said: 1. Quarterback, does not have to be a Drew Brees type, just someone who can convert %60 of 3rd downs and score 24 points a game. Alex Smith, Kurt Cousins, Sam Bradford or Rookie. Tyrod averaged 24.7 point pet game in 2015-16. I think we need a #1 WR who can push Benjamin and Jones down a rung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 I think that the most important piece that the Bills need is an attitude adjustment that results in a commitment to winning football games, and I'm not sure if the new regime (ie, FO) has it. I don't think that they had it early in 2017, but maybe that changed when Beane was hired. We'll have to see. Until and unless the Bills commit to keeping as much of the talent they find and develop as they can afford, they aren't ever going to build up enough talent and depth to field a team good enough to win 11 or 12 games and get far into the playoffs. The merry-go-round of continually drafting DBs, WRs, and RBs in the first and second rounds to replace the good ones that the Bills drafted, developed, and then sent packing rather than pay is the root cause of the 17 year playoff drought. If the Bills had paid Stephon Gilmore, they wouldn't have had to draft Tre White, and might have very well stayed at #10 and taken either Mahomes or Watson. If the Bills had kept Robert Woods or Marquise Goodwin, not only would they have had a much better WR corps in 2017, they wouldn't need to add another WR in 2018. I'm not saying that these specific moves were right or wrong, but the ugly reality is that they're very similar to moves that the Bills made repeatedly over the last 20 years and landed them in same spot they've been so often in the past: spending high draft picks to replace young starters who left via FA or trade rather than drafting to improve talent and depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatonka68 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) 8 hours ago, Tortured Soul said: Tyrod averaged 24.7 point pet game in 2015-16. I think we need a #1 WR who can push Benjamin and Jones down a rung. Some people will do anything to defend there savior. How many touchdowns did the Tyrod lead the team to against playoff teams. Jax 0, Patriots twice 0, Chiefs 1, Saints 0, Falcons 1. Nuf said. Was not Sammy a #1 WR and Tyrod still sucked. Padding his stats when the competitive part of the game ended. Edited January 20, 2018 by Tatonka68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wppete Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 On 2018-01-19 at 12:07 PM, kdiggz said: QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB , QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 21 hours ago, SouthNYfan said: This. Although if I'm not mistaken we got a brutal schedule next year, harder than this year looking at it ahead of time. ... That's a pretty tough opponent list (obviously a lot can change) A couple stand out as real tough (other than the obvious against ne) -@ Minnesota -@ lambeau -@Baltimore -home jax -home Tenn -home chargers Detroit is always a wild card with Stafford at the helm Houston it all depends on their QB situation Hoping we can sack up and get 10-6 next year though Respectfully disagree. With ANY decent QB, we’ll at least duplicate this years Home record & possibly win 7. There’s 5 winnable road games and Baltimore is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortured Soul Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 33 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said: Some people will do anything to defend there savior. How many touchdowns did the Tyrod lead the team to against playoff teams. Jax 0, Patriots twice 0, Chiefs 1, Saints 0, Falcons 1. Nuf said. Was not Sammy a #1 WR and Tyrod still sucked. Padding his stats when the competitive part of the game ended. You chose the objective criteria of 24 PPG, and I was just responding to it. I'm not using the word "savior" - that's your strawman. When Tyrod started in 2015-16, the Bills' offense averaged 24.7 points. Your response seems to be that the offense did not perform as well in 2017. I agree. I think they took the first step toward fixing that in getting rid of Dennison, and the next step will be adding (back) a #1 WR. My choice would be Sammy Watkins, if he makes it to free agency. Did Tyrod "suck" with Watkins in 2015-16? I don't think so, but that's a less objective question. The Bills averaged 24.7 points, which was your chosen measure. I would point out that Watkins only played 21 games total and wasn't himself for most of the 8 he played in 2016. In 13 games in 2015, he had 1,047 yards and 9 TDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatonka68 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Tortured Soul said: You chose the objective criteria of 24 PPG, and I was just responding to it. I'm not using the word "savior" - that's your strawman. When Tyrod started in 2015-16, the Bills' offense averaged 24.7 points. Your response seems to be that the offense did not perform as well in 2017. I agree. I think they took the first step toward fixing that in getting rid of Dennison, and the next step will be adding (back) a #1 WR. My choice would be Sammy Watkins, if he makes it to free agency. Did Tyrod "suck" with Watkins in 2015-16? I don't think so, but that's a less objective question. The Bills averaged 24.7 points, which was your chosen measure. I would point out that Watkins only played 21 games total and wasn't himself for most of the 8 he played in 2016. In 13 games in 2015, he had 1,047 yards and 9 TDs. Much of those points came in garbage time. Tyrod could throw a bomb now and then but cannot complete a 3rd and 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said: Respectfully disagree. With ANY decent QB, we’ll at least duplicate this years Home record & possibly win 7. There’s 5 winnable road games and Baltimore is one of them. Respectfully disagreeing is all well and good, but historical (career and recent history) both say that your assessment of penciling Baltimore in as a win does not have anything to back it up. Flacco has a 75% career regular season win% at home They were 5-3 last year at home They were 6-2 in 2016 They were 3-5 in 2015 They were 6-2 in 2014 That's: 11-5 the last two seasons and 20-12 the last 4 We were 3-5 away 2017 We were 3-5 in 2016 We were 3-5 in 2015 We were 4-4 in 2014 That's: 6-11 the last two seasons and 13-19 in the last 4 Is Baltimore a "winnable game"? And game technically is. Flacco's career at home, even over the last 2 seasons, and even expanded to last 4 seasons, objectively say that an away game in Baltimore should be penciled in as a loss when predicting a season. So I will respectfully disagree that you can assume we will beat Baltimore in Baltimore. (Adding math) Using the formula: p(Team A Win) = Team A true_win% *(1 - Team B true_win%)/(Team A true_win% * (1 - Team B true_win%) + (1 - Team A true_win%) * Team B true_win%) Which adjusts for standard deviation towards the mean of .500 ball, the bills come in with a 9.04% probability of winning based on the bills away record vs Ravens/flacco home record over flacco's career. As I said, statistically, unless we improve greatly or they regress greatly, that's our estimate probability, aka shouldn't be penciled in as a winnable game Edited January 21, 2018 by SouthNYfan Added math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris66 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 On 1/19/2018 at 11:51 AM, Tatonka68 said: 1. Quarterback, does not have to be a Drew Brees type, just someone who can convert %60 of 3rd downs and score 24 points a game. Alex Smith, Kurt Cousins, Sam Bradford or Rookie. 2. Maintain a tight secondary, either resign Gaines or draft an acceptable replacement. I would resign Gaines at a reasonable rate if they can. 3. At least one dominant DT who can push the pocket. Hughes still has life on the edge but no interior pocket pressure last year. Maurice Hurst, Derrick Nnadi or Da'Ron Payne. 4. Franchise ILB, Preston Brown had a lot of tackles but made few impact plays.Take your pick of Rashaan Evans, Micah Kiser or Roquan Smith. a 100 + tackle, 4 sack, 4 INT player. If these are all filled the Bills will make the playoffs again and compete for the division. (WHAT DO YOU THINK??) Not get beat by 20 to the Pats would be a good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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