TheFunPolice Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 (edited) Here's a thought: maybe the only thing that has really changed over the past two weeks is that we aren't getting the turnovers anymore. The running game has not been good all season. The passing game has not been good all season. The defense has given up yards all season. For all the talk of discipline and character, penalties have been a problem all season. Think about it: this was hardly a proficient offense before the 2 game losing streak. How many times did we get a turnover, only to go 3 and out or settle for a FG? How many times did a team drive, drive, drive, then fumble or throw a pick before they scored? Tyrod is exactly the same QB every week. I was shocked to see him throw for such a small amount of yardage this week, but if a couple penalties don't get called on some decent passing plays he's right around his typical 150-200 yard game. The guy is a model of consistency, for good and bad. He is who he is. However, when the team is 5-2 the QB gets a lot of credit for it. You get the snarky questions: "How can you question the great job he's doing? Where are the Tyrod haterZ now?!" Well, he was just not messing up and not blowing games, and making a few plays here and there to win. that works when you are causing a couple fumbles a game (and recovering them). Not to mention scoring defensive TDs. The thing is, he's still doing exactly the same thing, only now he's getting the blame. Nothing has changed in his play, though. Without the turnovers the defense is getting gassed. At least if you give up a 60 yard drive but cause a turnover you have some energy and you demoralize the other side. But when the other team finishes out that drive with a TD it's you who get demoralized. Then the offense does its normal pass, run, check down, punt routine and you're right back out there. Any defense will wear down, and there's no exciting plays to get them back. What we're seeing is essentially the same offense and defense, minus timely turnovers and flukey plays. This is who they have been all along. Edited November 13, 2017 by TheFunPolice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 When your D is only going after strips and forced INT's, then the tackling suffers...........when the tackling suffers, then the team suffers and when the team suffers, the fans suffer. Haven't we all suffered long enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 You will get some disagreement but not from me. Our wins were in large part the result of an flukey, unsustainable TO margin. A +1 TO in a given game will give you an almost 70% chance of winning. Compare that to home field advantage (commonly corresponding with a +3 point differential) at only 57%. Get to +2 and your chances of winning go to 84%. A game wherein a team has a +3 TO margin corresponds with victory nearly 91% of the time. Then when you examine the data which show that over 50% of seasonal turnover differential is due to luck (chance, happenstance, whatever you want to call it), it's not too hard to see the reason for the sudden regression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 I think all their early success has made them hungrier for turnovers as well, and they are getting sloppy. I just don't get the Tyrod love or the Tyrod hate. He is going to get you around 200 yards and a TD without turning it over, plus a few nice runs to extend drives. You can win a lot with that, and you can lose a lot with that too. But when we win he's amazing and when he lose he's awful. Yet he is the same guy. Nothing changed. It's just that a "play it safe" QB is only taking you so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 This team's success was built like a house of cards. If we get turnovers at an unsustainable level then we will win. If we have the best defense in the entire league and limit mistakes on offense then we will win. Well when those things don't happen then guess what...you don't win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Disagree. Just because you only get one TO does not mean you give up 300 yards rushing. How does that make any sense? Something happened in the locker room. Guys don't believe in the process anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 (edited) 2 minutes ago, reddogblitz said: Disagree. Just because you only get one TO does not mean you give up 300 yards rushing. How does that make any sense? Something happened in the locker room. Guys don't believe in the process anymore. The defense was not great before either, but when you get a pick 6 and a fumble, for example, it changes how the other team attacks. Often, they start pressing and make more mistakes. Also, the Bills benefitted from a fumble/score in the Atlanta game that was an awful call. I've seen the Bills get screwed plenty, so I didn't mind a bit, but the defense won that game by scoring on a very dubious call that everyone thought would be overturned and also getting turnovers. The offense was pretty much the same putrid offense. But we won, so nobody cared to criticize the QB or the awful playcalling. Edited November 13, 2017 by TheFunPolice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 I would rather have a gunslinger at the helm, throwing the ball all over the place..........at least it makes the games enjoyable. A "play safe" QB won't amount to much in todays NFL's passing systems and we are witnessing some really piss poor play this past few weeks Dare i even say that it is boring, lethargic and antic-climactic.........3 and outs allllllllllllllllllllll afternoon ain't gonna cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLXbillsmafia Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Bills have also been outgained in EVERY game this year except week 1 vs the Jets. Yards aren't everything, and I do think the Bills outplayed the Broncos and Raiders despite technically being "outgained", but that further goes to show that the Bills were winning with turnovers, more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 To beat most good teams you need 30. The rules are so skewed in favor of offenses that the great QBs will carve up even a good defense. Great offenses make a defense better moreso than the reverse. A great offense puts pressure on the other offense to keep up, which makes them one dimensional and easier to defend. Even a normally good offense can start making mistakes or taking stupid chances then, which only plays into your hands on D. A great defense just keeps the game close for you, until there is a huge PI penalty that practically gives the other team points. It doesn't really directly help an offense that cannot move the ball. Eventually even a strong D is going to crack either due to fatigue or a ref throwing a 50 yard flag for PI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 The Bills stopped the run. The defense looks out of position pre snap. They are not responding to motions and shifts well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Just now, Mat68 said: The Bills stopped the run. The defense looks out of position pre snap. They are not responding to motions and shifts well at all. Um, yeah..........what? What game were you watching, bro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Sweats said: Um, yeah..........what? What game were you watching, bro? That is what changed. First 7 weeks they stopped the run. Now they cant. Pointing to them shifting late and looking out of position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray Beard Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 You mean the method of winning was not sustainable? (Sorry, I never get tired of that one) Earlier in the season, there were comments that the score should have been more lopsided given the number of turnovers the Bills were getting. Now, without the turnovers, there isn't enough scoring to get the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, FLXbillsmafia said: Bills have also been outgained in EVERY game this year except week 1 vs the Jets. Yards aren't everything, and I do think the Bills outplayed the Broncos and Raiders despite technically being "outgained", but that further goes to show that the Bills were winning with turnovers, more than anything. The Raiders got a lot of yards in garbage time. Going into Q4 Carr had about 175 yards passing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Mat68 said: That is what changed. First 7 weeks they stopped the run. Now they cant. Pointing to them shifting late and looking out of position. good point...........the D looks a little lost out there with absolutely zero clue of assignments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted November 14, 2017 Author Share Posted November 14, 2017 (edited) Bills total yards allowed per game: (bold=win) NYJ: 214 CAR: 255 DEN: 366 ATL: 389 CIN: 388 TB: 447 OAK: 367 NYJ: 331 NO: 482 1st 2 weeks were great, but since then the total yardage has been pretty consistent. The difference is turnovers. Sure, the allocation of yardage has changed a bit, but yards are yards in my book. The defense was giving up yards but not points because the other team was turning it over before they scored. Edited November 14, 2017 by TheFunPolice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theshallowcross Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 I don't think that we're reinventing the wheel when we say that turnovers are important and I don't think that creating turnovers is flukey. Creating turnovers is a sustainable skill. Over the last two games and since the Dareus trade (coincidence I'm sure) this defense has a serious issue stopping the run. Through the first 7 games of the season the Bills allowed 561 rushing yards. In the last two games the Bills have allowed 492 rushing yards. They've allowed 9 rushing touchdowns in that same 2 game span. Compared to 5 rushing TDs allowed in the previous 7 games. I get that the other side of the Dareus argument is his low snap count. But what is not being considered is that it thins the depth and that doesn't allow for fresh guys coming in and having a deeper rotation. McDermott also underestimated the talent of the players behind Dareus. He was a presence and without him they have been absolutely putrid. We have 7 days and a cross country plane ride to figure it out. If we don't start stopping the run immediately, this season is going to spiral out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted November 14, 2017 Author Share Posted November 14, 2017 (edited) Since week 3 the defense has given up between 350-400 total yards 5/7 times. The other two it gave up 447 and 482, and went 1-1. In the game they won they got 3 turnovers. To me, yards are yards. 10 yards passing is the same as 10 yards running. Both keep the clock moving, keep drives alive and score points. Maybe there's the macho man BS about running yards being more "embarrassing" but either way the other team moves the ball at pretty much the same rate up to and including week 3. Edited November 14, 2017 by TheFunPolice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 21 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said: I think all their early success has made them hungrier for turnovers as well, and they are getting sloppy. I just don't get the Tyrod love or the Tyrod hate. He is going to get you around 200 yards and a TD without turning it over, plus a few nice runs to extend drives. You can win a lot with that, and you can lose a lot with that too. But when we win he's amazing and when he lose he's awful. Yet he is the same guy. Nothing changed. It's just that a "play it safe" QB is only taking you so far. You might be on to something here, makes sense as far as explaining the poor tackling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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