Boatdrinks Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: No. You're playing a mathematical game and looking at schedules and penciling in Ws and Ls... one of the entire points I started this thread initially was because I think doing that is just foolish. It's the NFL and absolutely anything can happen. I'd love that phrase to transpire into 2 straight Ws for Buffalo, but knowing that we're unlikely to see that just given our history, we root for Ls in any given situation for the other teams competing for the Wildcard with us. Being happy that a team also competing for the Wildcard wins and keeps pace with us 3 games before the season ends, I would say, is just wrong. If these permutations occur, we can do that in week 17, but first and foremost I'm rooting for a Buffalo W this weekend, followed by an L by the Ravens, Titans, AND Chargers. I'm sure all 3 don't lose, but I'd also bet 1 or 2 of them lose. The Bills would still be helped either way with a LAC loss or BAL loss either way, EVEN IF the Titans had won yesterday. That much was a given. Don't confuse being happy with a team keeping pace with simply expecting it to happen. The scenario I was expecting and hoping for was centered only around TEN. It would justvhave given the Bills another way in, if LAC and BAL do not slip up in weeks 16 or 17. Nothing wrong with it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 25 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: IF LAC lose and it's a BIG if, then Bills have a 50/50 shot with just a win at MIA separating them from breaking the drought. I'd love it, but it seems a pipe dream right now. Why in the world is it such a big if that the Chargers lose one road game on a West to East road game or one divisional game to close out the year? Personally, I think if you had to choose between EITHER the Chargers winning their next 2 OR not, you put money down on not. 26 minutes ago, SWATeam said: Boatdrinks should make a killing on a two week parlay. He has all of the results locked up This is what amazes me... you don't go into games hoping for MORE outcomes... you hope for LESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 9 hours ago, GunnerBill said: They will sweep this one. I'm not sure how they have won 6 games this season. They were the worst coached team we have played. The Jets are doing far more with far less. Its 4D chess bro. They came in with nothing and lost on purpose in hopes the Bills would think their game plan would work again in two weeks. That way Miami can finish the season on a high note. Don't you know how 4D chess works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said: No one knows how well or typical TT would have played in the Chargers game. Sure, we can blame Nate but there is no guarantee Tyrod would have won a game on the road on the west coast. He likely wouldn't have won the game. I think it would have been much closer but SD was putting the heat on. That's not how the media works though. Bills fan see it as evaluation, at least ones that hate Tyrod enough they just don't want to see him anymore... everyone else see it as not putting your best player on the field. Regardless of whether Tyrod would have won the game or not, a coaches job is to put the best players on the field to give his team the best chance to win. At the end of the day, the Bills will still be alive in week 17. That has only happened one other time in the drought I think. Edited December 18, 2017 by Scott7975 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 hour ago, joesixpack said: Correct on the chargers. if the titans go 1-1 they're 9-7. I'm calling it now: chargers lose in Jersey this week. Stone cold, lead pipe lock take it to the bank and pay the mortgage. Bryce Petty's still under center for them, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said: Bryce Petty's still under center for them, right? They gave the saints fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Bomb Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 hour ago, nedboy7 said: Whine? You need to grow up and buy a brain Sure thing champ! I'll go right out and do that just for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills13131313 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Guys, of course we want a chargers loss this weekend, and a ravens loss, etc. But for the people that continue to say we want the titans to lose, that is not true. We want them to win this week to hopefully have the 3 team tiebreaker just incase. They have to lose next week anyway so they can't lose this week and then win next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bills13131313 said: Guys, of course we want a chargers loss this weekend, and a ravens loss, etc. But for the people that continue to say we want the titans to lose, that is not true. We want them to win this week to hopefully have the 3 team tiebreaker just incase. They have to lose next week anyway so they can't lose this week and then win next week. This is true. I will be rooting against the Rams this week ( which I normally don't do.. lol ) , but wanted TEN to win yesterday at SF. We no longer want TEN to lose this game. It was a given that TEN winning week 17 vs JAX would doom the Bills, so we still want the Jags in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: No, no one knows. We can't say for sure that Taylor wouldn't have thrown 5 interceptions in one half and we wouldn't have gone down 30 at the half because of those 5 interceptions because Taylor didn't start and I'm unable to see into parallel universes. But I think anyone with any level of sanity would acknowledge nothing like that would have happened in the 1st half if Taylor started. Maybe we don't win. Maybe we do. Your Taylorism is showing. 2 road wins out of 5 for TT this season. Facing West coast opponents 0-2 last season (maybe more but I’m too lazy to look so he gets the BoD.) The odds were not in his favor. Name a west coast game Taylor had won in 3 years. 2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Tons of things can happen. The Chiefs aren't exactly models of consistency. KC at home plays Miami. If I read the story correctly a win clinches the AFCW for KC. Pray for LAC to lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Let's put that argument to bed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said: Your Taylorism is showing. 2 road wins out of 5 for TT this season. Facing West coast opponents 0-2 last season (maybe more but I’m too lazy to look so he gets the BoD.) The odds were not in his favor. Name a west coast game Taylor had won in 3 years. Taylorism? I'm sorry, it doesn't have to be Taylorism to see that benching Taylor for Peterman was clearly a mistake. As for west coast games Taylor has won... 2016 @ LA Rams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) 7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Taylorism? I'm sorry, it doesn't have to be Taylorism to see that benching Taylor for Peterman was clearly a mistake. As for west coast games Taylor has won... 2016 @ LA Rams. the 4-12 rams? his typical game 12/23 124 yds 2 td 0 int Edited December 19, 2017 by DaBillsFanSince1973 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: the 4-12 rams? Yep. He asked for a west coast game Taylor has won in 3 years. He's only played 3 of them and he's 1-2 in those games, with one of those 2 losses being a primetime MNF road game that most would label as one of Taylor's 2 best performances. It was just a poorly thought post that was trying to insinuate that Taylor's history somehow proves that going to the west coast somehow made it that much more impossible for him to get a W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) 10 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Yep. He asked for a west coast game Taylor has won in 3 years. He's only played 3 of them and he's 1-2 in those games, with one of those 2 losses being a primetime MNF road game that most would label as one of Taylor's 2 best performances. It was just a poorly thought post that was trying to insinuate that Taylor's history somehow proves that going to the west coast somehow made it that much more impossible for him to get a W. not impossible, but not likely. chargers were pumped up for that game regardless who was under center. they may of mauled taylor and it could of been another jets/no type game added to his resume. he is inconsistent and one can only hope he can some how have a game like the first half yesterday for four quarters in foxboro? I do blame the OC for the second half so it doesn't all fall on his shoulders. Edited December 19, 2017 by DaBillsFanSince1973 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) 51 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Taylorism? I'm sorry, it doesn't have to be Taylorism to see that benching Taylor for Peterman was clearly a mistake. As for west coast games Taylor has won... 2016 @ LA Rams. Mistake or not changes nothing WRT Taylor also laying an egg in LA. And just how bad were the LA Rams. Less than 5 wins? The 2016 Rams won 1 game after they played the Bills FTR 4 total. I think the the correct answer is Zero wins against fair to good teams. Christ the backup Chargers QB outplayed TT !!!! 94.2 to 91.8. 38 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: he is inconsistent and one can only hope he can some how have a game like the first half yesterday for four quarters in foxboro Hater. Edited December 19, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, HappyDays said: Let's put that argument to bed I'm not sure what 538 is using to come up with that percentage, but I don't buy it. It seems to be giving too much weight to the fact that beating SF would have put the Titans at 9 wins. Their last two games are vs Rams and Jaguars . They'll probably be dogs in both contests. It also seems to be giving the Bills a realistic shot at reaching 10-6 , but fans know that the Bills almost never beat the Pats with Brady. If every team has a fifty fifty chance at a win, then sure. But we know that isn't true in the real world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 16 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: I'm not sure what 538 is using to come up with that percentage, but I don't buy it. Their full methodology is here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2017-nfl-predictions-work/ How this works: This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. Our model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs. They have New England as the #1 team and we're 16th so our playoff odds have very little to do with beating the Patriots. You can actually mess around with their odds by changing results of other games. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nfl-predictions/ We normally have a 36% chance. A loss to the Pats drops that to 29% whereas a win puts it at 71%. Their original projection is assuming we lose to the Patriots most of the time. And we actually are rooting for the Titans against the Rams weirdly enough. If they win our chance goes up to 39%. So their model can fully take into account everything you're trying to take into account by saying the 49ers win was bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Their full methodology is here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2017-nfl-predictions-work/ They have New England as the #1 team and we're 16th so our playoff odds have very little to do with beating the Patriots. You can actually mess around with their odds by changing results of other games. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nfl-predictions/ We normally have a 36% chance. A loss to the Pats drops that to 29% whereas a win puts it at 71%. Their original projection is assuming we lose to the Patriots most of the time. And we actually are rooting for the Titans against the Rams weirdly enough. If they win our chance goes up to 39%. So their model can fully take into account everything you're trying to take into account by saying the 49ers win was bad for us. I'm well aware that the Titans loss yesterday means that we want them to beat the Rams this week. Still , I disagree with the 538 assessment as it seems one door for the Bills to get in has closed a bit in terms of probability . In fact , just saw a post by 26 where an AP writer wrote "good news for Titans win 2 and you're probably in. Bad news games are vs Rams and Jags ". Seems many folks don't like the Titans chances against those opponents. 538 likes the Titans more than I do. I still don't see what avenue to the playoffs improved by the Titans losing. It does keep them at 8 wins. Maybe 538 isn't that high on the Chargers either. Edited December 19, 2017 by Boatdrinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I’ve got 2 words. Tyrod Taylor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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