Drafts - Have the Bills made many stretches?

[Billsfan1972]

I love the anxiety surrounding the draft and how you all come back here year after year complaining about choices and why the Bills don't make the right picks.

 

I have no idea, but I usually peek afterwards at draft grades & most years the Bills have drafted well according to experts.

 

Now 5 years later obviously more misses then hits, but I don't see the bills making off the wall picks (i.e. drafting someone 10th, who was ranked 40th, or someone in the 2nd that was projected in the 4th).

 

They are drafted where they should have been and then up to the coaching to get the best out of them.

 

That's where the Bills have failed.

 

Prove me wrong if someone has stats.

Edited September 1, 2017 by Billsfan1972

[Ayjent]

They've been terrible at the draft, regardless of draft pundits grades. They've been terrible in handing out large contracts to some players (Dareus, Glenn, Clay) which leads to not keeping solid players that wouldn't brank the bank (Hogan, Gillislee), and letting high round picks move on after their rookie contracts (Woods, Gilmore). They then draft players to fit a particular scheme and then abandon that scheme (Ragland). They empahsized the WR position throughout Whaley's tenure without anything to show for it on this year's roster. They did a terrible job of building franchise anchors for the team through the draft from 2013-2016 - Manual, Woods, Alonzo, Watkins, Kuoandijo, Darby, Ragland are all gone - only Preston Brown, John Miller, and Shaq Lawson to show for on the current roster as potential starters and I don't think anyone is thinking Pro Bowl calibre player for any of them.

 

I thought Doug Whaley was good at acquiring players through FA and trade, but was absolutely horrendous at the draft. The team was left with bloated contracts and a dearth of young talent. You could see this year coming sometime, Beane and McDermott just accelerated the inevitable by trading away the best of the young talent that was about to get expensive for draft capital. It remains to be seen whether that was wise, but I'm very skeptical. There are plenty of ways to suck at personnel decisions - so taking a different direction doesn't mean the destination will change. I think the Darby trade really wasn't wise considering he was cheap this year, and they could have extended him after a sophomore slump at a discount. If they are really interested in getting this team in the right direction, they should be more focused on cleaning out the bad contracts and keeping the young talent.

 

I think that you are right about coaching to some extent as well. The Bills have had some of the worst player development in the league for many, many years. You know this is the case when guys are showing a ton of promise in their rookie seasons and then not improving. This has something to do with the constant turnover as well, but of all of the coaches they've had over the years, Roman/Lynn and Schwartz were the only ones that seemed to get more out of guys as they became more familiar with their schemes. I think the Offense is going to regress significantly this year, because Dennison is not an adaptive OC (i.e., he runs his offense regardless of whether the roster is full of square pegs for the round holes). WIthout an adaptive OC (e.g., Lynn, Roman, Gase, Shannihan) - Tyrod is likely going to struggle doing things that don't fit his skill set as much as the Offense he ran the past two years. I hope that I'm wrong, but that's the way I see it playing out.

 

The Bills have had a pretty good offenses the past two years, and pretty bad defenses. Before that they had a pretty good defenses for two years, and pretty bad offenses. Are we ready to do another switcheroo - I think that is going to be the case this year - Pretty good D, pretty bad O.

Edited September 1, 2017 by Ayjent

[Big Turk]

I love the anxiety surrounding the draft and how you all come back here year after year complaining about choices and why the Bills don't make the right picks.

 

I have no idea, but I usually peek afterwards at draft grades & most years the Bills have drafted well according to experts.

 

Now 5 years later obviously more misses then hits, but I don't see the bills making off the wall picks (i.e. drafting someone 10th, who was ranked 40th, or someone in the 2nd that was projected in the 4th).

 

They are drafted where they should have been and then up to the coaching to get the best out of them.

 

That's where the Bills have failed.

 

Prove me wrong if someone has stats.

Some is bad injury luck, some is unwise decisions, some are schemes/coaching issues.

 

They have made a lot of good picks but unfortunately turn them over quickly with all the scheme/coaching changes

[The Frankish Reich]

The draft market is pretty efficient now. By that I mean that all teams have access to the same information/same video. The days of a team having an advantage through better scouting are pretty much over, particularly when talking about the first 4 (5?) rounds. So the "stretches" - guys drafted way above where most smart observers have them - are pretty few and far between, including for the Bills. Starting in 2011 (first 4 rounds only):

 

2011: Dareus, Aaron Williams, Kelvin Sheppard, Searcy, Chris Hairston. I don't see any stretches there. The fact that some lower picks (Searcy) turn out to be valuable and some (Sheppard) don't, and some have careers derailed by injury (Hairston) is just a part of NFL life.

 

2012: Gilmore, Glenn, T.J. Graham, Nigel Bradham, Ron Brooks. Again, I'm not seeing any stretches. That's actually a really good draft with a couple of well above average players (Gilmore, Glenn), a very solid contributor (Bradham), and a guy who's still hanging around (Brooks), with one bust (Graham). But it wasn't as if Graham was some projected late-rounder that only the Bills had on the board. He was at most a slight stretch as the 69th overall pick. NFL.com had him as "speed guy ... who could go as high as the 3rd round."

 

2013: Manuel, Woods, Alonso, Goodwin, Duke Williams. O.K., here's the big stretch: EJ. Projected by most as a 3rd/4th rounder. But understandable that he moved up fast because every year now at least 1 or 2 (or more?) QBs ascend the draft ladder out of the desperation for a franchise QB by teams like the Bills. Taking Goodwin in the 3rd can be criticized as a do-over on TJ Graham, but he wasn't really a reach in objective terms.

 

2014: Watkins, Kouandjio, Preston Brown, Cockrell. I don't see any stretches here. Again, the valid criticism would be that the Bills panic-traded up for Watkins in a desperate attempt to salvage EJ, who didn't look like a future franchise QB in his rookie season; "hey, maybe he just needed that great WR to throw to" was the theory. Kouandjio: stock dropped before the draft from likely 1st rounder to 2nd, so he was a known risk. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Cockrell: a fine 4th round pick, the mistake was in letting him go, not in drafting him. Preston: a productive pick giving you what you expect from a 3rd rounder.

 

2015: Darby, Miller. No stretches here. Some would have dropped Darby lower based on "character," but there was no doubt he was at least a 2nd rounder based on talent. Miller was taken right where he was projected. Again, the problem here was ... 2 picks in the first 4 rounds, a consequence of the Sammy panic.

 

2016: Shaq Lawson, Ragland, Adolphus, Cardale. I don't see any stretches, but I do see a theme developing. Trading up for Ragland? In retrospect (as many thought at the time) not the best idea. Drafting Cardale in the 4th? That's where a talented project QB like Cardale goes. Sometimes that guy turns into Dak, sometimes he turns into, umm, you know. More of a problem with how the Bills view what they're trying to accomplish with the draft than with overrating a particular player. As Sammy was brought in to save a sunk cost (and sinking project QB) in EJ, so too Ragland was brought into save a drowning fat man coach. These things usually don't end up well ...

 

2017: White, Zay, Dion. All chosen where they should've been. Time will tell whether the "Whaley" (pretty clearly McD when we look at it today) strategy of thinking that value is found between, say, the low 1st round (White, 27th overall) and the late 2nd (Dawkins, 63rd overall) will turn out better than the prior strategy.

 

So ... other than EJ, I don't see any huge stretches. I just see the lack of a coherent, long-term strategy that has, over the course of several years, consigned us to a rebuilding project. Again.

Edited September 1, 2017 by The Frankish Reich

[BrooklynBills]

Secondary has been a revolving door of high draft picks that are not re-signed. 2006-2009 we spent high draft capital on CBs and Ss and none were committed to (either through FO stubbornness or because the players were not good enough) which led to us again spending high draft capital on the secondary again from 2011-2015(BTW none are left again). That is very bad asset management.

 

They have not identified and drafted any cornerstone/franchise players whatsoever(players that are scheme diverse and good enough league wide to commit big money and large amounts of money to).

 

Draft has been used as a band aid to end the drought since the Nix/Gailey era rather than a means toward building a team.

 

CJ Spiller(5 yrs - 1 great season)

Marcell Dareus(great talent but it would be nice to have the best OT in NFL(Tyron Smith) or one of the best CBs(Peterson) or DL(Watt)

Stephon Gilmore(good player)

EJ Manuel(LOL but Bills HAD to have a QB)

Sammy Watkins(Great talent - not what was needed at the time.

Sammy Watkins again(for a team that should be building and relying heavily on the draft not having a 1st round pick hurt alot)

Shaq Lawson(TBD but Bills had to replace Mario)

[Billsfan1972]

And it comes back to what I said. Bad coaching & development and a couple of bad contracts.

 

And the result we gave up on Watkins, traded Darby and didn't even give Ragland a chance.

 

But keep getting excited about draft day and pray for 3-13.......

[SoTier]

The draft market is pretty efficient now. By that I mean that all teams have access to the same information/same video. The days of a team having an advantage through better scouting are pretty much over, particularly when talking about the first 4 (5?) rounds. So the "stretches" - guys drafted way above where most smart observers have them - are pretty few and far between, including for the Bills. Starting in 2011 (first 4 rounds only):

 

2011: Dareus, Aaron Williams, Kelvin Sheppard, Searcy, Chris Hairston. I don't see any stretches there. The fact that some lower picks (Searcy) turn out to be valuable and some (Sheppard) don't, and some have careers derailed by injury (Hairston) is just a part of NFL life.

 

2012: Gilmore, Glenn, T.J. Graham, Nigel Bradham, Ron Brooks. Again, I'm not seeing any stretches. That's actually a really good draft with a couple of well above average players (Gilmore, Glenn), a very solid contributor (Bradham), and a guy who's still hanging around (Brooks), with one bust (Graham). But it wasn't as if Graham was some projected late-rounder that only the Bills had on the board. He was at most a slight stretch as the 69th overall pick. NFL.com had him as "speed guy ... who could go as high as the 3rd round."

 

2013: Manuel, Woods, Alonso, Goodwin, Duke Williams. O.K., here's the big stretch: EJ. Projected by most as a 3rd/4th rounder. But understandable that he moved up fast because every year now at least 1 or 2 (or more?) QBs ascend the draft ladder out of the desperation for a franchise QB by teams like the Bills. Taking Goodwin in the 3rd can be criticized as a do-over on TJ Graham, but he wasn't really a reach in objective terms.

 

2014: Watkins, Kouandjio, Preston Brown, Cockrell. I don't see any stretches here. Again, the valid criticism would be that the Bills panic-traded up for Watkins in a desperate attempt to salvage EJ, who didn't look like a future franchise QB in his rookie season; "hey, maybe he just needed that great WR to throw to" was the theory. Kouandjio: stock dropped before the draft from likely 1st rounder to 2nd, so he was a known risk. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Cockrell: a fine 4th round pick, the mistake was in letting him go, not in drafting him. Preston: a productive pick giving you what you expect from a 3rd rounder.

 

2015: Darby, Miller. No stretches here. Some would have dropped Darby lower based on "character," but there was no doubt he was at least a 2nd rounder based on talent. Miller was taken right where he was projected. Again, the problem here was ... 2 picks in the first 4 rounds, a consequence of the Sammy panic.

 

2016: Shaq Lawson, Ragland, Adolphus, Cardale. I don't see any stretches, but I do see a theme developing. Trading up for Ragland? In retrospect (as many thought at the time) not the best idea. Drafting Cardale in the 4th? That's where a talented project QB like Cardale goes. Sometimes that guy turns into Dak, sometimes he turns into, umm, you know. More of a problem with how the Bills view what they're trying to accomplish with the draft than with overrating a particular player. As Sammy was brought in to save a sunk cost (and sinking project QB) in EJ, so too Ragland was brought into save a drowning fat man coach. These things usually don't end up well ...

 

2017: White, Zay, Dion. All chosen where they should've been. Time will tell whether the "Whaley" (pretty clearly McD when we look at it today) strategy of thinking that value is found between, say, the low 1st round (White, 27th overall) and the late 2nd (Dawkins, 63rd overall) will turn out better than the prior strategy.

 

So ... other than EJ, I don't see any huge stretches. I just see the lack of a coherent, long-term strategy that has, over the course of several years, consigned us to a rebuilding project. Again.

 

Good post, and I mostly agree. My take on the Bills drafting Manuel in the first is a bit different. It was only a "reach" because they were determined to draft a QB in the first round, and there just weren't any ones worth a first in that draft. I think that they understood Manuel wasn't a first round talent but they wanted a first round QB to put butts in the seats. Remember, that was when Ralph Wilson was dying, and Russ Brandon was running the team. They had "cleared the decks" of all QBs in February or March by releasing both Fitzpatrick and Tavaris Jackson, and literally had no QB until they signed the reliably accident prone Kevin Kolb who conveniently didn't even make it to the first preseason game IIRC.

 

The motivation to take Manuel in the first was really the same one that motivated the Bills to pick Losman in 2004 when he likely would have lasted into the second or even the third round, and if he didn't, Matt Schaub would have been available and a better choice anyways. My guess is that 2018 will resemble 2013 in that the Bills have already decided to draft a QB in the first round even if there's not one worth drafting available.

 

 

Secondary has been a revolving door of high draft picks that are not re-signed. 2006-2009 we spent high draft capital on CBs and Ss and none were committed to (either through FO stubbornness or because the players were not good enough) which led to us again spending high draft capital on the secondary again from 2011-2015(BTW none are left again). That is very bad asset management.

 

They have not identified and drafted any cornerstone/franchise players whatsoever(players that are scheme diverse and good enough league wide to commit big money and large amounts of money to).

 

Draft has been used as a band aid to end the drought since the Nix/Gailey era rather than a means toward building a team.

 

CJ Spiller(5 yrs - 1 great season)

Marcell Dareus(great talent but it would be nice to have the best OT in NFL(Tyron Smith) or one of the best CBs(Peterson) or DL(Watt)

Stephon Gilmore(good player)

EJ Manuel(LOL but Bills HAD to have a QB)

Sammy Watkins(Great talent - not what was needed at the time.

Sammy Watkins again(for a team that should be building and relying heavily on the draft not having a 1st round pick hurt alot)

Shaq Lawson(TBD but Bills had to replace Mario)

 

The DBs as a unit have been a "revolving door" since the Bills let former 1999 first round draft pick Antoine Winfield walk away in FA. He was followed by Nate Clements who also left for Minnesota a few years later. Jabari Greer was an UDFA who became a good starting CB and then left to help New Orleans win a Super Bowl. Donte Whitner, another first rounder, was good enough to become a Pro Bowler with the 49ers during their last playoff years when they fielded a serious defensive team. Gilmore just joins the long line of good/great Bills DBs whom the team won't pay to keep, preferring to create another hole that the team fills with a first round pick in the next draft instead of adding talent where the team actually needs more.

 

BTW, WR and RB are also revolving doors for talent for the Bills. When you look back at the first two rounds of all the drafts since 2000, what stands out is how many times the Bills used first or second picks on WR or RBs ... and how often those players, when successful, left or were shipped out to find more success with other teams.

[BrooklynBills]

The draft market is pretty efficient now. By that I mean that all teams have access to the same information/same video. The days of a team having an advantage through better scouting are pretty much over, particularly when talking about the first 4 (5?) rounds. So the "stretches" - guys drafted way above where most smart observers have them - are pretty few and far between, including for the Bills. Starting in 2011 (first 4 rounds only):

 

2011: Dareus, Aaron Williams, Kelvin Sheppard, Searcy, Chris Hairston. I don't see any stretches there. The fact that some lower picks (Searcy) turn out to be valuable and some (Sheppard) don't, and some have careers derailed by injury (Hairston) is just a part of NFL life.

 

2012: Gilmore, Glenn, T.J. Graham, Nigel Bradham, Ron Brooks. Again, I'm not seeing any stretches. That's actually a really good draft with a couple of well above average players (Gilmore, Glenn), a very solid contributor (Bradham), and a guy who's still hanging around (Brooks), with one bust (Graham). But it wasn't as if Graham was some projected late-rounder that only the Bills had on the board. He was at most a slight stretch as the 69th overall pick. NFL.com had him as "speed guy ... who could go as high as the 3rd round."

 

2013: Manuel, Woods, Alonso, Goodwin, Duke Williams. O.K., here's the big stretch: EJ. Projected by most as a 3rd/4th rounder. But understandable that he moved up fast because every year now at least 1 or 2 (or more?) QBs ascend the draft ladder out of the desperation for a franchise QB by teams like the Bills. Taking Goodwin in the 3rd can be criticized as a do-over on TJ Graham, but he wasn't really a reach in objective terms.

 

2014: Watkins, Kouandjio, Preston Brown, Cockrell. I don't see any stretches here. Again, the valid criticism would be that the Bills panic-traded up for Watkins in a desperate attempt to salvage EJ, who didn't look like a future franchise QB in his rookie season; "hey, maybe he just needed that great WR to throw to" was the theory. Kouandjio: stock dropped before the draft from likely 1st rounder to 2nd, so he was a known risk. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Cockrell: a fine 4th round pick, the mistake was in letting him go, not in drafting him. Preston: a productive pick giving you what you expect from a 3rd rounder.

 

2015: Darby, Miller. No stretches here. Some would have dropped Darby lower based on "character," but there was no doubt he was at least a 2nd rounder based on talent. Miller was taken right where he was projected. Again, the problem here was ... 2 picks in the first 4 rounds, a consequence of the Sammy panic.

 

2016: Shaq Lawson, Ragland, Adolphus, Cardale. I don't see any stretches, but I do see a theme developing. Trading up for Ragland? In retrospect (as many thought at the time) not the best idea. Drafting Cardale in the 4th? That's where a talented project QB like Cardale goes. Sometimes that guy turns into Dak, sometimes he turns into, umm, you know. More of a problem with how the Bills view what they're trying to accomplish with the draft than with overrating a particular player. As Sammy was brought in to save a sunk cost (and sinking project QB) in EJ, so too Ragland was brought into save a drowning fat man coach. These things usually don't end up well ...

 

2017: White, Zay, Dion. All chosen where they should've been. Time will tell whether the "Whaley" (pretty clearly McD when we look at it today) strategy of thinking that value is found between, say, the low 1st round (White, 27th overall) and the late 2nd (Dawkins, 63rd overall) will turn out better than the prior strategy.

 

So ... other than EJ, I don't see any huge stretches. I just see the lack of a coherent, long-term strategy that has, over the course of several years, consigned us to a rebuilding project. Again.

 

For the most part I agree but I think you are giving them way too many passes. It also is not just about looking at who was selected and assessing them in a vacuum.

 

2011 - The problem with the Dareus pick is not his talent it is in the idea that we should be building our defense around DT rather than the stud CB that went 2 picks later. As far as Aaron Williams goes - he was drafted as CB and was a failure there and was moved to safety even though we already had a starting FS drafted 2 years earlier and spent a 4th rounder on another S in this draft in Searcy(who BTW ended up being the best long term player-i guess that's bad luck but also a poor plan).

 

2012 - The was a very successful draft in getting Gilmore and Glenn, sure, but taking Graham(a projected 5-7th round pick) and passing up Wilson when it was well known that we wanted him was a huge gaffe.

 

2013 - Love the trade back. Hate the Manuel pick and was an obvious reaction to the bad press for not getting Wilson, and to a lesser extent Cousins(who they also liked alot) in 2012 and Kapearnick/Dalton in 2011. This is the first "Whaley draft" and you can see how everything is about to go off the rails here in hindsight. I like Woods-not resigned.

 

2014 - Watkins- just a terrible assessment of what was needed at the time and was an obvious move made to justify the Manuel selection. When you add in the fact that the Browns originally wanted our 2nd round pick instead of next year's 1st, but Whaley turned it down because he wanted to keep the selection in the current draft, this move looks downright foolish. But this trade is more about Whaley/Brandon trying to save their jobs in the wake of Ralph Wilson's death and the inevitable sale of the team and making the job look much less enticing for any potential GM replacements.

 

2015 - no 1st, Darby is good

 

2016 - I like Lawson but we'll see. 2 4ths for ragland - desparation

 

Basically, 2013 - 2016 was some of the most reactionary, desperate approaches to the draft that I've seen from any team because they overvalued the roster and were literally "hoping" these high risk moves would all pan out for them.

[The Frankish Reich]

 

For the most part I agree but I think you are giving them way too many passes. It also is not just about looking at who was selected and assessing them in a vacuum.

 

2011 - The problem with the Dareus pick is not his talent it is in the idea that we should be building our defense around DT rather than the stud CB that went 2 picks later. As far as Aaron Williams goes - he was drafted as CB and was a failure there and was moved to safety even though we already had a starting FS drafted 2 years earlier and spent a 4th rounder on another S in this draft in Searcy(who BTW ended up being the best long term player-i guess that's bad luck but also a poor plan).

 

2012 - The was a very successful draft in getting Gilmore and Glenn, sure, but taking Graham(a projected 5-7th round pick) and passing up Wilson when it was well known that we wanted him was a huge gaffe.

 

2013 - Love the trade back. Hate the Manuel pick and was an obvious reaction to the bad press for not getting Wilson, and to a lesser extent Cousins(who they also liked alot) in 2012 and Kapearnick/Dalton in 2011. This is the first "Whaley draft" and you can see how everything is about to go off the rails here in hindsight. I like Woods-not resigned.

 

2014 - Watkins- just a terrible assessment of what was needed at the time and was an obvious move made to justify the Manuel selection. When you add in the fact that the Browns originally wanted our 2nd round pick instead of next year's 1st, but Whaley turned it down because he wanted to keep the selection in the current draft, this move looks downright foolish. But this trade is more about Whaley/Brandon trying to save their jobs in the wake of Ralph Wilson's death and the inevitable sale of the team and making the job look much less enticing for any potential GM replacements.

 

2015 - no 1st, Darby is good

 

2016 - I like Lawson but we'll see. 2 4ths for ragland - desparation

 

Basically, 2013 - 2016 was some of the most reactionary, desperate approaches to the draft that I've seen from any team because they overvalued the roster and were literally "hoping" these high risk moves would all pan out for them.

Was that really the case, that the Browns wanted our 2nd that year? If so, that's a pretty awful outcome - Whaley gave up the next year's #1 in order to take Kouandjio ... Whaley was probably thinking "our 1st round pick the next year will be in the low 20s, so not much of a difference."

[BrooklynBills]

Was that really the case, that the Browns wanted our 2nd that year? If so, that's a pretty awful outcome - Whaley gave up the next year's #1 in order to take Kouandjio ... Whaley was probably thinking "our 1st round pick the next year will be in the low 20s, so not much of a difference."

 

Yes. It came out later in the year.

 

And I personally think it was less "we'll be good next year" and more "I need this player and if we don't have a 1st round pick next year, it will buy me another year with whoever buys the team." Whaley/Brandon knew the team was going to be sold and that they were on thin ice. However, I don't think they anticipated that Marrone would quit and that a guy with absolutely no plan for how to run the team would buy them.

[Bray Wyatt]

Was that really the case, that the Browns wanted our 2nd that year? If so, that's a pretty awful outcome - Whaley gave up the next year's #1 in order to take Kouandjio ... Whaley was probably thinking "our 1st round pick the next year will be in the low 20s, so not much of a difference."

 

Yes the reasoning he had was that the current draft was really deep and the next years wasn't. It turns out both Kouandijo and Erving (who the browns took with the pick) both suck so it didn't make that much of a difference

[I'm Spartacus]

Looks like Brandon Beane is taking roster building advice, from his distant baseball relative Billy Beane - MONEY BALL!!!

[Rico]

 

For the most part I agree but I think you are giving them way too many passes. It also is not just about looking at who was selected and assessing them in a vacuum.

 

2011 - The problem with the Dareus pick is not his talent it is in the idea that we should be building our defense around DT rather than the stud CB that went 2 picks later. As far as Aaron Williams goes - he was drafted as CB and was a failure there and was moved to safety even though we already had a starting FS drafted 2 years earlier and spent a 4th rounder on another S in this draft in Searcy(who BTW ended up being the best long term player-i guess that's bad luck but also a poor plan).

 

2012 - The was a very successful draft in getting Gilmore and Glenn, sure, but taking Graham(a projected 5-7th round pick) and passing up Wilson when it was well known that we wanted him was a huge gaffe.

 

2013 - Love the trade back. Hate the Manuel pick and was an obvious reaction to the bad press for not getting Wilson, and to a lesser extent Cousins(who they also liked alot) in 2012 and Kapearnick/Dalton in 2011. This is the first "Whaley draft" and you can see how everything is about to go off the rails here in hindsight. I like Woods-not resigned.

 

2014 - Watkins- just a terrible assessment of what was needed at the time and was an obvious move made to justify the Manuel selection. When you add in the fact that the Browns originally wanted our 2nd round pick instead of next year's 1st, but Whaley turned it down because he wanted to keep the selection in the current draft, this move looks downright foolish. But this trade is more about Whaley/Brandon trying to save their jobs in the wake of Ralph Wilson's death and the inevitable sale of the team and making the job look much less enticing for any potential GM replacements.

 

2015 - no 1st, Darby is good

 

2016 - I like Lawson but we'll see. 2 4ths for ragland - desparation

 

Basically, 2013 - 2016 was some of the most reactionary, desperate approaches to the draft that I've seen from any team because they overvalued the roster and were literally "hoping" these high risk moves would all pan out for them.

Interesting take on the Watkins pick. No doubt that Brandon would do anything and everything to keep his job.

I've often said that Whaley got the most love from mock draft geeks because his picks matched up well with their "boards"... no big reaches. Hats off to those who correctly analyzed that he was a talent collector who was clueless about building a team. Scout, yes, but GM, in WAY over his head.

[BillsFan17]

This whole thread is moot.

 

You are basing this solely off media rankings and not how teams have them ranked.

 

Hence why we see "risers" and "fallers" week in and week out leading up to the draft- because they slowly get more real info about the way teams view these players.

[Billsfan1972]

This whole thread is moot.

 

You are basing this solely off media rankings and not how teams have them ranked.

 

Hence why we see "risers" and "fallers" week in and week out leading up to the draft- because they slowly get more real info about the way teams view these players.

How is it moot? Saying draft grades are fine, but not necessarily the reults or developing the players. And now the Bills have another regime claiming it will be different and asking fans to wait for their draft picks to develop in what "4-5" years?

[Ayjent]

 

Yes the reasoning he had was that the current draft was really deep and the next years wasn't. It turns out both Kouandijo and Erving (who the browns took with the pick) both suck so it didn't make that much of a difference

Just because the draft partner also is terrible at assessing talent and making picks in the draft doesn't make it a smart move. Everyone knew it was a very deep and talented draft for WRs, and there was no need to move up the board for a WR. It was a boneheaded trade regardless of what they gave the Browns. Watkins was very talented, but I never really understood why he was valued as the overall best WR of that draft - he hadn't really even demonstrated that he could operate in a more traditional NFL passing game and really was used a lot in WR screens. Not to mention the Bills had a decent group of WRs already and it wasn't like the only missing piece for the offense was WR.

 

The problems for offense started at QB and OL from 2013-2015 - two places Whaley just isn't very good at evaluating. Trading away a 1st round pick in next year's draft for a WR when their is a likelihood that your guy at QB from two drafts before isn't the guy is just lacking foresight. Also, it's not like the Bills didn't have holes elsewhere that a 1st rounder would be nice to have. The way Whaley was building the team had little margin for error. Unfortunately for all of us, there was a significant amount of error.

[HuSeYiN_NYC]

Good post.

Tell him I said good post also cuz if I reply to him, it will take up space by copying what he wrote.