Math, Probability, Win %. Bills must embrace them

[Estro]

It's pretty simply folks. Our last 2 head coaches have not embraced the very things that give your team a better chance of winning on Sundays, playing the correct odds:

 

You shouldn't punt when your win % decreases after said punt

You shouldn't kick a FG when your win % decreases after said FG

You should know to take a 5 yard delay of game early in the 1st Q, rather than burn a timeout

You should know when to not challenge a clear reception on the sideline by your opponent

 

These are just some of the examples we as Bills fans should always expect our next HC to get right. There are little examples hidden in every game where too many coaches totally screw up and actually hurt their teams chance of victory, and honestly its unacceptable. It's the thing I want most out of our next HC. I'd like him to understand the following:

 

1- A run and stop the run philosophy is nice, but judging by the Bills #1 rushing attach the past 2 seasons, & STILL no playoffs it's clearly not wise

2- You need to find a QB who can shred (as Gruden would say) defenses with his arm and his mind.

3- You need to be very aggressive on 4th down as you approach midfield. 4th and 6 and shorter anywhere close to midfield & HC's should be going for it way more than they are.

4- 2 pt. conversion. Attempt them. 55% chance of 2 points is better than 92% of 1. This is called math.

5- Don't play prevent defense up 3 late in the 4th quarter (Bills vs. MIA). Stop playing to minimize disaster and actually play to maximize your chance of victory, something Rex continually avoided.

6- Understand that defenses are historically up and down year to year. Don't fool yourself into thinking that a great defense is going to be great next year and also that a bad defense is going to be bad the next year.

7- Understand that passing offense is very important to a teams success. Even the best running game in the league can't cover up for a bottom of the league passing game.

8- Every yard counts. WR's, TE's and RB's must be taught to hit it north/south as soon as the make a catch. There are some occasions when its smart for a player to protect himself when there are no more yards to be had, but I'm tired of the Sammy Watkins ducking out of bounds 1 yard shy of the sticks plays. Just watch NE's WR compared to ours, they play like RB's across the middle of the field. Ours don't seem to want any part of contact.

 

I honestly think that an excellent Head Coach who aces gameday management (knowing how to do the things I mentioned above) can help a team win an additional 2 games per year on average. This to me is worth more than any 1 player, with the exception of a very good QB. The QB is very hard to find, The HC shouldn't be. I hope we find the right guy. And I hope the Bills are asking the right questions.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Estro

[Hapless Bills Fan]

It's pretty simply folks. Our last 2 head coaches have not embraced the very things that give your team a better chance of winning on Sundays, playing the correct odds:

 

You shouldn't punt when your win % decreases after said punt

You shouldn't kick a FG when your win % decreases after said FG

You should know to take a 5 yard delay of game early in the 1st Q, rather than burn a timeout

You should know when to not challenge a clear reception of the sideline by your opponent

 

These are just some of the examples we as Bills fans should always expect our next HC to get right. There are little examples hidden in every game, where too many coaches totally screw up and actually hurt there teams chance of victory and honestly its unacceptable. It's the thing I want most out of our next HC. I'd like him to understand the following:

 

1- A run and stop the run philosophy is nice, but judging by the Bills #1 rushing attach the past 2 seasons, & STILL no playoffs it's clearly not wise

2- You need to find a QB who can shred (as Gruden would say) defenses with his arm and his mind.

3- You need to be very aggressive on 4th down as you approach midfield. 4th and 6 and shorter anywhere close to midfield & HC's should be going for it way more than they are.

4- 2 pt. conversion. Attempt them. 55% chance of 2 points is better than 92% of 1. This is called math.

5- Don't play prevent defense up 3 late in the 4th quarter (Bills vs. MIA). Stop playing to minimize disaster and actually play to maximize your chance of victory, something Rex continually avoided

6- Understand that defenses are historically up and down year to year. Don't fool yourself into thinking that a great defense is going to be great next year and also that a bad defense is going to be bad the next year.

7- Understand that passing offense is very important to a teams success. Even the best running game in the league can't cover up for a bottom of the league passing game.

8- Every yard counts. WR's, TE's and RB's must be taught to hit it north/south as soon as the make a catch. There are some occasions when its smart for a player to protect himself when there are no more yards to be had, but I'm tired of the Sammy Watkins ducking out of bounds 1 yard shy of the sticks plays. Just watch NE's WR compared to ours, they play like RB's across the middle of the field. Ours don't seem to want any part of contact.

 

Most of what you said I agree with, but to #1: the Bills have NOT had a successful run D the last 2 years. So we haven't given "run and stop the run" but 1/2 a shot.

to #2: Everyone wants to find a QB who can shred defenses with his arm and his mind. The trick is finding him.

#6: I'm not so sure on that history. Generally, when a meh D becomes great or vice versa, it's because of a coaching change or a couple key additions or losses, ie it has nothing to do with "fooling oneself" . In any event, I'm sure the Seahawks, who have ranked #1 or #2 on D every season since 2011, would be grateful for your historical insight. As might Bill Belichick, whose Pats have had a top-10 D on points since 2003 (13 years) with 2 exceptions.

 

But again, I agree with the majority of your message, the "every yard counts", and the need to incorporate analytics and probability into game-day decision making unless there is very good reason to depart from it.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I new Mike Schopp was a member here !!

[Samwell Tarly]

Have to pretty much agree with OP. So tired of watching these things...

1. Punting when you are beyond the 50 yard line. You might as well throw a deep pass. If you get picked, it's essentially a punt anyway

2.Prevent defense.. play the defense that put you in position to win in the first place. I watch teams do this crap every year with the same result.

3. Have you watched extra point attempts this year? Two points is a safer bet than ever.

4.Complete a 3rd or 4th down pass at or beyond the sticks instead of 5 yards away. I've seen other teams do it, maybe the bills should try it.

5.Finally, the Bills should never try a reverse again.. they've been doing it for 20 years and it pretty much never works.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Mike schoop no bueno. Jeremy white otoh...

[RealityCheck]

This is a great subject OP. We need coaches that understand and successfully apply game theory. Many great books have been written on the subject, originating from the work of John Von Neumann. If it's good enough for Belicheat, it should be good enough for the Bills.

[Best Player Available]

But, but,we were building a robust analytics dept. Shirley, the FO knows all of this?

[fergie's ire]

But, but,we were building a robust analytics dept. Shirley, the FO knows all of this?

Don't call me Shirley.

[4merper4mer]

It's pretty simply folks. Our last 2 head coaches have not embraced the very things that give your team a better chance of winning on Sundays, playing the correct odds:

 

You shouldn't punt when your win % decreases after said punt

You shouldn't kick a FG when your win % decreases after said FG

You should know to take a 5 yard delay of game early in the 1st Q, rather than burn a timeout

You should know when to not challenge a clear reception on the sideline by your opponent

 

These are just some of the examples we as Bills fans should always expect our next HC to get right. There are little examples hidden in every game where too many coaches totally screw up and actually hurt their teams chance of victory, and honestly its unacceptable. It's the thing I want most out of our next HC. I'd like him to understand the following:

 

1- A run and stop the run philosophy is nice, but judging by the Bills #1 rushing attach the past 2 seasons, & STILL no playoffs it's clearly not wise

2- You need to find a QB who can shred (as Gruden would say) defenses with his arm and his mind.

3- You need to be very aggressive on 4th down as you approach midfield. 4th and 6 and shorter anywhere close to midfield & HC's should be going for it way more than they are.

4- 2 pt. conversion. Attempt them. 55% chance of 2 points is better than 92% of 1. This is called math.

5- Don't play prevent defense up 3 late in the 4th quarter (Bills vs. MIA). Stop playing to minimize disaster and actually play to maximize your chance of victory, something Rex continually avoided.

6- Understand that defenses are historically up and down year to year. Don't fool yourself into thinking that a great defense is going to be great next year and also that a bad defense is going to be bad the next year.

7- Understand that passing offense is very important to a teams success. Even the best running game in the league can't cover up for a bottom of the league passing game.

8- Every yard counts. WR's, TE's and RB's must be taught to hit it north/south as soon as the make a catch. There are some occasions when its smart for a player to protect himself when there are no more yards to be had, but I'm tired of the Sammy Watkins ducking out of bounds 1 yard shy of the sticks plays. Just watch NE's WR compared to ours, they play like RB's across the middle of the field. Ours don't seem to want any part of contact.

 

I honestly think that an excellent Head Coach who aces gameday management (knowing how to do the things I mentioned above) can help a team win an additional 2 games per year on average. This to me is worth more than any 1 player, with the exception of a very good QB. The QB is very hard to find, The HC shouldn't be. I hope we find the right guy. And I hope the Bills are asking the right questions.

 

Some of this is interesting but #4 would be a mistake. If you go for the XP you miss out on getting points 8% of the time but that increases to 45% when going for 2. That means a 37% increase in missing out after a touchdown. If your opponent goes XP they will make it 92% as you state. .37*.92 = about a 34% increase in the number the times you will be losing the game after scoring one touchdown each.

[PolishDave]

Statistics are also very misleading sometimes - like when people here on this very board blame a low total pass yards ranking for the Bills on the QB, when in fact it is proven that it correlates to the number of pass attempts. Teams with the fewest pass attempts tend to have lower total yards. Teams with more pass attempts tend to have more total yards. And the number of pass attempts is a decision by the offensive coordinator based on his philosophy and game plan - not the QB.

 

The truth is people look for new stats to support their opinions and twist statistics to suggest they mean something other than the truth all the time. Not just in football, but very commonly in other things such as politics.

Edited December 28, 2016 by PolishDave

[26CornerBlitz]

I new Mike Schopp was a member here !!

 

What's old is new to some.

@WSJSports

Why NFL coaches take no chances, especially on 4th downs and extra points. It may have cost Rex Ryan his job.

https://t.co/EPMZnegQgg

[Zulu Cthulhu]

I lost you at "it's pretty simply"...

[PolishDave]

 

@WSJSports

Why NFL coaches take no chances, especially on 4th downs and extra points. It may have cost Rex Ryan his job.

https://t.co/EPMZnegQgg

 

 

Don't those guys proofread their own articles?

 

"University of Pennsylvania professor Cade Massey, who researches behavior and judgment, said many NFL coaches habitually choose to postpone the certainty of losing in football for as long as possible—even if doing so actually lowers the odds of losing in the end, such as opting to punt on fourth-and-short in overtime." (bold emphasis mine)

[metzelaars_lives]

I love how everyone piles on Mike Schopp cause it's always a fan favorite and seems to be the one thing that everyone on here can agree on. The thing of it is, he's usually right about stuff- namely this very topic. I do understand how his smarmy attitude rubs many the wrong way and he oversimplifies the analytics thing (if that's possible) but again, he's usually right. Case and point, the punt was asinine yet Rex Ryan was partly right- MOST coaches would've punted too. Even though it blatantly decreased their odds of winning that football game.

[PolishDave]

I love how everyone piles on Mike Schopp cause it's always a fan favorite and seems to be the one thing that everyone on here can agree on. The thing of it is, he's usually right about stuff- namely this very topic. I do understand how his smarmy attitude rubs many the wrong way and he oversimplifies the analytics thing (if that's possible) but again, he's usually right. Case and point, the punt was asinine yet Rex Ryan was partly right- MOST coaches would've punted too. Even though it blatantly decreased their odds of winning that football game.

 

I disagree that he is usually right about stuff.

 

And I don't think he is very good at his job. Guy is a complete douche.

 

I liked him when he was on the radio in Rochester and when he first came to Buffalo on 107 or whatever that was. Since he has been on GR, the guy has been very bad at football coverage. In my opinion. I quit listening because of it.