Week 12 Cin - O Line/ QB Unforced Errors All 22 Review

[Bocephuz]

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not?

 

I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did /

How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate)

 

Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field.

 

DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play)

 

 

_______ ______________________

 

TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 29 - (last week was 42 for reference)

 

LINE BREAKDOWNS: 5 / 29 or 17% ( last week was 12/42 or 29% of snaps for reference) In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 17% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate. 17% is a solid number.. the O Line was solid last Sunday.

 

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 24 / 29 snaps or 83% (last week 30/42 snaps or 71%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 83% of the time

 

UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 5/24 snaps or 21% (last week was 2/30 snaps or 7%) Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 5 unforced errors by my count..which is right on the "DANGER" line. Similar to last week.. 3 of these errors came early in the game in the 1st quarter.

 

 

Bottom Line:

 

GROY VERY SOLID - I really didn't notice Ryan Groy at all watching this tape.. which is a very good thing. He acquitted himself very well against the Bengals.

 

MILLS NOT PERFECT.. BUT HAS A SOLID REBOUND PERFORMANCE - It appeared to me that Jordan Mills took the majority of snaps at RT this game. Henderson was sprinkled in for a few plays.. and I don't recall seeing Kujo get in the game at all. Mills acquitted himself quite nicely in pass protect.. the only error I saw him make was a false start. Hopefully #79 can use this game as a springboard to get back to where he was late last year and early this year.

 

 

HENDERSON STRUGGLES IN RETURN TO ACTION - I don't have an exact count.. but Henderson got a fair chunk of playing time. I think he and Mills may have rotated quarters ( Mills 1st and 3rd qtr? - Henderson 2nd and 4th??). First of all.. let's give him credit for fighting off the Crohn's disease and getting himself back on the field. Now.. let's have an honest evaluation. He struggled on several plays in pass protect as shown below

-

 

 

q2 : 55 - Henderson's man beats him to the outside.. forcing TT flush out of the pocket. Once TT is flushed.. he himself makes an awful decision to force a ball to Goodwin in the end zone and he is picked off. At the end of the day.. if Henderson doesn't get beat then TT is not in that position to make that bad decision

 

 

 

 

q4: 13:39 - Henderson beaten to the inside.. TT flushed. .. but this time he improvises and makes a great decision/ throw to Goodwin to make something out of nothing

 

 

 

 

CORDY GLENN GIVES UP SOME PRESSURES - The normally reliable #77 had a few gaffes in pass protect against Cincy. He was beaten twice in Q3.. and both times the pressures he gave up ruined potential deep ball opportunities.

 

Q3 6:42 - Glenn IS beaten to outside.. TT is flushed.. can't get his feet set properly and he overthrows Clay deep. If pressure isn't in his face he most likely hits this pass

 

 

 

 

q3 3:57 - Glenn is beaten to the inside this time... TT seems to be looking for Woods deep on the bottom of the screen but the pressure from Glenn's man forces him to bail and not attempt the throw

 

 

 

There were times when TT had time to throw and he missed opportunities as well

 

 

TYROD MISSES BIG OPPORTUNITIES EARLY...

 

Q1 12:39 - Decent protection.. TT doesn't throw to Woods who is past the safety at the bottom of the screen on the go route

 

 

 

 

Q1 11:38 - Good protection.. TT either doesn't see Clay..or doesn't feel confident enough to throw to him on the deep post route. This is a pretty standard cover 2 beater throw he should be able to identify and make

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

O Line Pass block grades

 

GLENN - C

INCOGNITO - A-

GROY - A

MILLER - C+

MILLS- B

HENDERSON - C-

 

SUMMARY - Overall.. the O Line was solid enough today.. The interior play was very solid. Ryan Groy really held his own. The only guard who had a few bad plays was John Miller. The tackles gave up a few pressures each that were costly.. however. .for the most part TT had fairly clean pockets to throw from. Accordingly the blame for another sub 200 yd passing game falls mostly on the receivers not getting separation as well as on TT for leaving a few big plays on the table early in game.

 

When I watched this game in real time my assumption was that the line was holding up fairly well and that TT had time to throw on most plays. I wanted to dig deeper on the all 22 and see why he was holding the ball so long and not attempting many intermediate or deep throws. What I saw were several things.

 

UNNECESSARY CHECKDOWNS - In the first quarter.. as shown above.. there were multiple opportunities where TT had a relatively clean pocket, had guys open down the field. and for whatever reason he decided to be safe and check down.

 

NO SEPARATION - other than those opportunities in Q1.. there were a fair amount of downs where TT had time but the receivers were legitimately not getting any separation. Especially after Woods went out.

 

LINE BREAKDOWNS - also as shown above.. there were a couple of critical OL breakdowns that prevented TT from attempting deep ball throws to open receivers

 

TYROD MISSES EARLY OPPORTUNITIES.. BAD IN RED ZONE. TT was sloppy today.. especially in the red zone (the really bad interception on a forced throw to Goodwin... also another bad out route in the red zone that could have gone for a pick six if the db didn't drop it). He didn't really have any "wow" throws like he did in Seattle. This sloppiness is very much out of character for him. What's worse is that the balls that were forced were late/ desperate throws. I can live with interceptions if they come from being aggressive and throwing into tight windows on time.. but these late un-smart forced throws are completely indefensible.

 

 

 

PLAYS OF NOTE

 

q1 - 12:39 - UNFORCED ERROR - decent protection but doesn't see Woods open on Go route

 

 

Q1 11:38 - UNFORCED ERROR - good protection... doesn't pull the trigger on open post route to play and checks down

 

q1 2:28 - UNFORCED ERROR - forces ball to Woods in red zone that should have been picked off

 

q1 1:16 - SACK - coverage sack

 

q2 2:05 - TT hits excellent out route to Tate with DL in his face

 

q2 .55- Henderson is beaten to the outside and forces TT to flush .. TT then makes bad decision and throws INT in red zone

 

q3 6:42 - Glenn beaten to the outside.. TT flushed and over throws Clay on Flag route

 

q3 3:57 - Glenn beaten to the inside .. TT flushed and misses opportunity to go deep on go route

 

q3 2:12 _ Mills false start

 

q3 1:58 - TT climbs pocket and does excellent job finding Tate over the middle

 

q3 :36- Miller's man beats him and TT is flushed from the pocket

 

q4 13:39 - Henderson beaten to the inside and TT flushed but still makes nice throw to Goodwin

 

Q4 12;11 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT telegraphs an out route to Gillislee in the red zone and almost throws a pick six

 

q4 2:41 - Missed throw to Harvin. Upon further review.. Harvin appeared to have run a poor route. TT was expected him to cut his out route at a 90 degree sharp angle and Harvin made a sloppy 65% cut.

 

 

 

Edited November 22, 2016 by Bocephuz

[MAJBobby]

Good write up don't agree with some of it. Think you were way to generous on the unforced errors

[Mr. WEO]

Good write up don't agree with some of it. Think you were way to generous on the unforced errors

 

Yeah, but you also claim TT never saw any pressure, so....of course you disagree.

[MAJBobby]

 

Yeah, but you also claim TT never saw any pressure, so....of course you disagree.

Were was missing the wheel route?

Flushing with Ghost Pressure

Starting down Woods on InJ

Horrible throw to Clay on corner

 

There is 4 more easy. But keep sugar coating it

Edited November 22, 2016 by MAJBobby

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Were was missing the wheel route?

Flushing with Ghost Pressure

Starting down Woods on InJ

Horrible throw to Clay on corner

 

There is 4 more easy. But keep sugar coating it

 

The Clay throw was the one that jumped out to me. Just a total miss. As for his scrambling - i'd like to see the all-22 to see what our WRs do... It's a very strange element to an offense and isn't for everyone.

 

As much as i like All-22, i've always wanted a helmet cam to show me what he's looking at, what he can see through passing windows etc.

Good write up don't agree with some of it. Think you were way to generous on the unforced errors

 

I think he was bad this past week. But there were certainly plays where literally no one was open. It happened in at least a couple replays from what i recall.

[MAJBobby]

 

The Clay throw was the one that jumped out to me. Just a total miss. As for his scrambling - i'd like to see the all-22 to see what our WRs do... It's a very strange element to an offense and isn't for everyone.

 

As much as i like All-22, i've always wanted a helmet cam to show me what he's looking at, what he can see through passing windows etc.

 

 

I think he was bad this past week. But there were certainly plays where literally no one was open. It happened in at least a couple replays from what i recall.

Yes there was. I saw that on the all 22 that there were times there was no separation. However I also saw times there was and ghost pressure flushed him.

 

All I was saying here this week is I think the OP was a little too generous in scoring the Unforced Errors. I think it was closer to 10 than 5

[Coach Tuesday]

That Clay play (the cover 2 beater) made me sick to my stomach. College QBs know to make that throw.

[MAJBobby]

That Clay play (the cover 2 beater) made me sick to my stomach. College QBs know to make that throw.

Thank you. How do you expect to get people out of Cover 2 if you don't make the throw a majority (if not all) NFL QBs make.

 

Not to mention the completely missing Tate wide open coming out of the Bunch only to compound that issue with the High Fastball to Clay in triple coverage

Edited November 23, 2016 by MAJBobby

[Bocephuz]

That Clay play (the cover 2 beater) made me sick to my stomach. College QBs know to make that throw.

Yes.. that was scary.

[John from Riverside]

Thank you. How do you expect to get people out of Cover 2 if you don't make the throw a majority (if not all) NFL QBs make.

 

Not to mention the completely missing Tate wide open coming out of the Bunch only to compound that issue with the High Fastball to Clay in triple coverage

are we now saying it is TT's fault that Clay didnt catch that ball?

 

OMFG

[MAJBobby]

are we now saying it is TT's fault that Clay didnt catch that ball?

 

OMFG

Should it have been caught maybe (wasn't logged as a drop by the only site that logs drops). Issue was should it have been thrown that is the freaking point.

 

Tate was wide open out of the bunch (every QB makes that throw) not forces a high fastball into triple coverage.

 

 

See that's the different between you and me. I look at where the correct throw should have been (Tate) not the incorrect throw that needs a player to make a tough play (Clay)

 

So yes that is on the QB more than it is on Clay

Edited November 23, 2016 by MAJBobby

[Jkgobills]

Yes.. that was scary.

That Clay play (the cover 2 beater) made me sick to my stomach. College QBs know to make that throw.

 

That one is tough to watch

[billsfanmd07]

I wonder how often receivers come back in the huddle and say "I was open by 10 *&^$! yards" You would think after 10 games he would be able to see it or throw it up for grabs in locations only our guy can get it. When we play other franchise QBs they all seem to place the ball just out of our cb reach.

[Mango]

Not to nitpick. And yes, I am the occasional poster.

 

....

 

But how are you providing stats on unforced errors, forced errors, no separation, and QB errors, while at the same time saying things like, "many times there was nobody open." If you are collecting data,that isn't a true response to data collection.

 

Also note the only video analysis offered was Corday Glenn. If you're watching every play, taking notes, and making references. It doesn't seem just to identify a single player only. Not only that, he wasn't the worst player on the lin le by your grades.

 

Just asking to stick to your measurements and data is all. Be she this ain't that.

 

All the criticism above said. I know this is message board. Thanks for your time and effort in posting. It's much appreciated. Regardless of criticism.

[Mango]

Also in plays of note you list in order

 

1. Unforced

2.unforced

3. Unforced

4. Coverage sack

5. Excellent play by TT

6. OT blew it

7. OT blew it

8. OL false start

9. TT excellent

10. OL beat

11. OL beat

12. Unforced

13. Bad route

 

In a game where your numbers show the line held up about 83% of the time, your notable plays list them at double the rate. Actually 7 of the 13 notable plays are listed as somebody else's failure other than the QB, when your data is showing they are right in line with their more successful games as a unit.

 

Meanwhile your number of times TT blew it are about a 1/3. Plus one good play.

 

It just doesn't make sense. The numbers above show that these number should be flipped around.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Mango

[OCinBuffalo]

Excellent analysis in terms of methodology. So often what we read here lacks any sense of objectivity. And, to be fair, objectivity is difficult, because biases are part of the human condition. What is different here: we can all watch the same animated gif, and, come away with a different interpretation of what happened, but not an entirely different perception.. This methodology forces us, like it or not, to begin with the same baseline: the gifs above.

 

That means that raw data upon which this discussion is based, is normative. (And, yes, unlike in many other areas, my use of normative here is actually: definitive. The word normative, just like the word justice, needs no modifier, and indeed demands none. Once we add a modifier ahead of either word? We change the definition of each word...to its opposite.)

 

I am glad to see this approach. It forces the discussion away from cognition/perception(what one remembers), and towards interpretation...given a baseline set of visual fact.

 

This is much more useful to all. We are constrained from arguing what we "saw" vs. what others "saw". Instead, we must interpret what we can all see.

 

This is a highly useful thread. I hope this becomes the standard approach going forward.

[Bocephuz]

Excellent analysis in terms of methodology. So often what we read here lacks any sense of objectivity. And, to be fair, objectivity is difficult, because biases are part of the human condition. What is different here: we can all watch the same animated gif, and, come away with a different interpretation of what happened, but not an entirely different perception.. This methodology forces us, like it or not, to begin with the same baseline: the gifs above.

 

That means that raw data upon which this discussion is based, is normative. (And, yes, unlike in many other areas, my use of normative here is actually: definitive. The word normative, just like the word justice, needs no modifier, and indeed demands none. Once we add a modifier ahead of either word? We change the definition of each word...to its opposite.)

 

I am glad to see this approach. It forces the discussion away from cognition/perception(what one remembers), and towards interpretation...given a baseline set of visual fact.

 

This is much more useful to all. We are constrained from arguing what we "saw" vs. what others "saw". Instead, we must interpret what we can all see.

 

This is a highly useful thread. I hope this becomes the standard approach going forward.

Thank you. I don't claim my methodology to be perfect.. but I do claim that I try as hard as I can to be objective

Also in plays of note you list in order

 

1. Unforced

2.unforced

3. Unforced

4. Coverage sack

5. Excellent play by TT

6. OT blew it

7. OT blew it

8. OL false start

9. TT excellent

10. OL beat

11. OL beat

12. Unforced

13. Bad route

 

In a game where your numbers show the line held up about 83% of the time, your notable plays list them at double the rate. Actually 7 of the 13 notable plays are listed as somebody else's failure other than the QB, when your data is showing they are right in line with their more successful games as a unit.

 

Meanwhile your number of times TT blew it are about a 1/3. Plus one good play.

 

It just doesn't make sense. The numbers above show that these number should be flipped around.

My plays of note are just that.. plays of note. I don't have the time or capacity to write notes on every single passing down. I can assure you that I did however wstch every pass play and grade it either "sufficient " protection or "breakdown ".

 

In general if the OL is doing a solid job I don't feel that it is worth writing as a 'play of note'. Also if TT completes a standard 5 yard hitch .. I don't see any value in writing a note about it

 

As far a gifs go.. My intent was not to pick on Glenn.. but rather to show several potential deep plays where poor O line play affected the ability of the QB to deliver the throw... both of which happened to be on Glenn

Edited November 23, 2016 by Bocephuz

[Gugny]

are we now saying it is TT's fault that Clay didnt catch that ball?

 

OMFG

 

You are embarrassing yourself. You should stop embarrassing yourself. It's embarrassing.

[John from Riverside]

 

You are embarrassing yourself. You should stop embarrassing yourself. It's embarrassing.

LOL....ok then

[Gugny]

LOL....ok then

 

I say that with pure kindness. It's getting to the point where it's like watching a convicted serial killer's mom tell the world, "My son is not a monster. He's a GOOD boy!" ... but everyone but her knows the truth.