How Brady is beating defenses before ball is even snapped

[diver]

TIGHT COVERAGE Give his receivers no space especially within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage

[thebandit27]

TIGHT COVERAGE Give his receivers no space especially within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage

 

The issue here is that you really need to be in man coverage to do that, in which case you can expect a bazillion rub routes/pick plays to free up Edelman/Amendola/Lewis on the underneath stuff.

[maddenboy]

 

Indeed.

 

 

If that's the case, then every DC in the NFL is both bad and lazy when they play NE (save for Wade Phillips--who, interestingly, was our coach 20 years ago).

 

As to Taylor, it could be any number of things ranging from:

 

1) It was his first year as an NFL starter, and he needs to adjust to the speed of the game

2) It was his first year in a new offense, and he needs more time to get on the same page as the OC and the receiving targets

3) He has difficulty seeing the whole field

4) He doesn't diagnose well enough pre-snap

5) He doesn't process fast enough post-snap

 

Most likely, it's a combination of the above. Some of that stuff can be learned/fixed, and Taylor's continued development depends upon him doing just that.

 

 

He didn't need to; he saw it himself in Week 2 of 2015, hence the massive change in approach prior to the MNF game last year...and the results were there defensively.

 

ok. but I think you're slightly missing my point.

 

My point is not about taylor. Its about his coaches.

 

My point is that these tired, neanderthal, dinosaur coaches just wanna do what they always have done, and "please give me 2-3 years to get the right guys to do what i've always done"

 

My point is: think outside the box, the way the best teams do. Figure out how to get the absolute max out of what you have.

 

Belichick = dinosaur?

Pete Carroll = dino?

Sean Peyton?

Arians?

 

I say its coaching.

Edited July 6, 2016 by maddenboy

[thebandit27]

 

ok. but I think you're slightly missing my point.

 

My point is not about taylor. Its about his coaches.

 

My point is that these tired, neanderthal, dinosaur coaches just wanna do what they always have done, and "please give me 2-3 years to get the right guys to do what i've always done"

 

My point is: think outside the box, the way the best teams do. Figure out how to get the absolute max out of what you have.

 

Belichick = dinosaur?

Pete Carroll = dino?

Sean Peyton?

Arians?

 

I say its coaching.

 

I do agree that I'd like to see Rex innovate a bit more so that he didn't have the whole square peg/round hole issue last year.

 

That said, I would hardly call Roman a dinosaur. He's got a very innovative approach to the run game--he'll run out of any personnel grouping--11, 12, 22, 21; he'll run zone-read concepts, he'll run packaged plays, etc.

 

I'm not sure it's accurate to categorize his approach old/tired simply because he didn't want to burden his first-time starting QB with too much of the playbook.

[Adam]

I like the option of taking 15 yards and a few late hits that hurt a lot. I don't mean anything dirty like a knee. Just hard hits around them to make him worry. Sounds like a plan. Whats aother 15 yards. The cheater deserves it.

Just. No.

[HT02]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-why-the-patriots-have-the-best-short-pass-game-in-the-nfl-brady-gronkowski-amendola/

 

Good stuff

[spillerhighlife]

He is beating defenses with 4 variables

1. He is very good

2. He is very well coached

3. Cheating

4. Having a ridiculous amount of calls in his favor

 

Not necessarily in this order

Use bullet points

[mead107]

Would Brady be Brady had we drafted him?

[3rdand12]

Would Brady be Brady had we drafted him?

certainly not. Ralph would rather lose then cheat

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-why-the-patriots-have-the-best-short-pass-game-in-the-nfl-brady-gronkowski-amendola/

 

This is why I credit Belichick more than Brady. These play designs have 1 read post snap MAX. Brady knows exactly where he is throwing each play. And the guys are always open, because they are all guys who get open quick every time. And the formation just hoses up the d

 

This article showcases how good beli is... And whatever he decided the Broncos did to him he's got a few more player match ups to exploit and he is back to the drawing board

Edited July 7, 2016 by over 20 years of fanhood

[maddenboy]

 

I do agree that I'd like to see Rex innovate a bit more so that he didn't have the whole square peg/round hole issue last year.

 

That said, I would hardly call Roman a dinosaur. He's got a very innovative approach to the run game--he'll run out of any personnel grouping--11, 12, 22, 21; he'll run zone-read concepts, he'll run packaged plays, etc.

 

I'm not sure it's accurate to categorize his approach old/tired simply because he didn't want to burden his first-time starting QB with too much of the playbook.

 

respectfully disagree in part.

 

the job of an OC (imho) is not just to bring in a playbook and to call plays on gameday. the OC's job is to make sure the players can run the plays he wants to call. Coach-em-up. If u cant get that done in 6 days, then dont call that play on sunday. Because failure wont be Tyrod's fault, it will be yours.

 

If you have to dial back the playbook, it means one or both of the QB is dumb OR I'm not a good enuf OC to teach.

 

Back to my point. A good OC should know what clay he has to work with. If TT cant run the plays that look nice and fancy in the fat playbook you have compiled and used for the past 10 years, then . . . get the absolute max out of what you have, right now. And do it right now. We dont have 3 years to wait for new personnel or for TT to get a brain transplant.

 

And looping back, I think that's the point of the article. Belichick adapted and overcame. We need better coaching.

Edited July 7, 2016 by maddenboy

[ALF]

One read , quick release might work for EJ

[8-8 Forever?]

 

For the record, Brady averaged 1.6 seconds against the Bills last year. That's ridiculous. No chance you get to Brady in 1.6 seconds from snap. I think confusing him is really the only way about it, along with taking them to the woodshed when we're playing offense.

yep, and the Rex defense is all about confusion. you cannot beat Brady playing is straight, need to be unconventional..

[Nihilarian]

Yes, Brady has the fastest snap-to-release time in the NFL. This article highlights that there are two, and only two, ways of disrupting him.

 

1) Get to him in less than 2.2 seconds.as Denver did.

2) Confuse him pre-snap, as Rex did in the 2nd meeting last year.

 

For reference, Taylor has the slowest snap-to-release time in the NFL.

What also helps Brady is that he has some receivers that always find ways to get open underneath the coverages and a TE that can beat most any coverage. Funny thing that Edelman only played in nine games last year and when he was out for the rest of the season after a good beat down of the Redskins in week nine. Then suddenly that Patriot offense wasn't nearly as good. This is probably a big reason as to why the Patriots signed a player away from Buffalo nicknamed 7-11 because he was always open.

I think what helped Buffalo was Brady's O-line was beaten down pretty bad with injuries and although the Bills defense finally managed to get quite a bit of pressure on Brady this game, they only sacked him once. That sole sack was by the LBer Manny Lawson.

 

The very next game for the unbeaten Patriots was against the Broncos in which they lost and this game started their downward spiral for the next 8 games of three wins and five losses.

 

 

Let's also not forget what Fitz was able to do in Buffalo with his very quick release and ability to find the open WR in SJ. That was with only one good WR who was also adept at finding ways of getting open. Fitz to Stevie Johnson and even Revis couldn't stop it. Kinda crazy that Buffalo managed to find a way to get rid of Stevie Johnson and wondered why Fitz wasn't as good. I wonder if fans will say the same about TT now that he lost his first down machine.

[thebandit27]

 

respectfully disagree in part.

 

the job of an OC (imho) is not just to bring in a playbook and to call plays on gameday. the OC's job is to make sure the players can run the plays he wants to call. Coach-em-up. If u cant get that done in 6 days, then dont call that play on sunday. Because failure wont be Tyrod's fault, it will be yours.

 

If you have to dial back the playbook, it means one or both of the QB is dumb OR I'm not a good enuf OC to teach.

 

Back to my point. A good OC should know what clay he has to work with. If TT cant run the plays that look nice and fancy in the fat playbook you have compiled and used for the past 10 years, then . . . get the absolute max out of what you have, right now. And do it right now. We dont have 3 years to wait for new personnel or for TT to get a brain transplant.

 

And looping back, I think that's the point of the article. Belichick adapted and overcame. We need better coaching.

 

I know it may not sound like it, but 6 days really isn't a lot of preparation time between games to coach these guys up.

 

Most of the detailed coaching happens in the offseason; in-week coaching is more about installing the game plan and scripted plays, working on any new wrinkles, and studying opponent's tendencies.

 

Don't take this the wrong way, but your post above appears to be duplicitous. On one hand, you're chiding either the QB or the coach for operating with a scaled-back playbook, citing the idea that a good enough QB/OC would be able to use the entire thing (ignoring the fact that Taylor didn't even become the starter until September, and was splitting starter's reps 3 ways--at best--his entire first season under Roman). Then, however, you chide Roman for not knowing the clay he has to work with, when it seems to me that that's the biggest compliment we can pay him: he knew how to utilize Taylor to make him effective.

 

All QBs/OCs adjust the playbook to what these guys can/can't do; all of them. I can guarantee you that Josh McDaniels comes up with play designs/concepts that Brady rips out of the playbook and tells him he doesn't want called on Sundays. That's just the process of developing an offense. There are things Brady can't do, and so McDaniels avoids them. No matter how much you coach up Brady, he's never going to run the same playbook as Cam Newton.

 

Anyway, I don't want to beat this point to death, or try to change your opinion.

 

Here's to hoping that Roman and Taylor can take the next step together.

 

What also helps Brady is that he has some receivers that always find ways to get open underneath the coverages and a TE that can beat most any coverage. Funny thing that Edelman only played in nine games last year and when he was out for the rest of the season after a good beat down of the Redskins in week nine. Then suddenly that Patriot offense wasn't nearly as good. This is probably a big reason as to why the Patriots signed a player away from Buffalo nicknamed 7-11 because he was always open.

I think what helped Buffalo was Brady's O-line was beaten down pretty bad with injuries and although the Bills defense finally managed to get quite a bit of pressure on Brady this game, they only sacked him once. That sole sack was by the LBer Manny Lawson.

 

The very next game for the unbeaten Patriots was against the Broncos in which they lost and this game started their downward spiral for the next 8 games of three wins and five losses.

 

 

Let's also not forget what Fitz was able to do in Buffalo with his very quick release and ability to find the open WR in SJ. That was with only one good WR who was also adept at finding ways of getting open. Fitz to Stevie Johnson and even Revis couldn't stop it. Kinda crazy that Buffalo managed to find a way to get rid of Stevie Johnson and wondered why Fitz wasn't as good. I wonder if fans will say the same about TT now that he lost his first down machine.

 

Regarding the receivers, I do give credit to guys like Edelman for doing their jobs. To me, it's more a symptom than a cause. Brady's ability to read the defense, identify coverages, and re-position his targets before the snap really opens things up for these guys.

 

I'll also say that they're coached to run pick plays like no team I've ever seen. On literally every underneath route, there's someone rubbing a defender away from his man, making him unable to redirect the route. They've almost taken the same stance on OPI as Seattle took on DPI the year that they won the Super Bowl: they can't call it every down, so just keep doing it and we'll take the 2-3 penalties per game in order to derive the benefit on the 15-20 times we get away with it. It's smart football actually; doesn't mean I don't hate it.

 

The biggest reason that Rex was able to frustrate Brady the 2nd time around last year was that he was able to take Gronk out of the game. That's their bread-and-butter. If you can scheme Gronk out of the game without dedicating two full-time coverage players to him, you're going to have a higher measure of success against Brady, because as good as guys like Edelman and Amendola may be at foiling underneath man coverage, they aren't better than the top NFL corners when matched 1-on-1 (hence why they didn't make big plays against teams like Buffalo or Denver).

 

It'll be interesting to see how NE folds Hogan into their approach. He's not a quick-twitch guy like Edelman or Amendola, but he's a solid route-runner and a good blocker. I'm sure having a bigger guy that can wall off defenders on those pick plays is going to be a boon for their approach. One thing I know about Hogan is that he's hardly a 1st-down machine. In 2015, Tyrod converted 129 first downs via pass; of those, ~87% went to WR1-WR3 or TE1 (41 went to Watkins, 27 to Woods, 26 to Clay, and 18 to Hogan). That means that Hogan was responsible for only 13.9% of the 1st downs that Tyrod converted via pass (compared to 31.7% for Watkins, 20.9% for Woods, and 20.2% for Clay).

 

Moreover, Hogan was 4th among the above-mentioned in terms of the percentage of his targets that resulted in 1st downs. Watkins converted 41 of his 95 targets for 1sts (43%), Woods converted 27 of 81 targets (33%), Clay converted 26 of 77 targets (34%), and Hogan converted 18 of 59 targets (30.5%). IMO, regardless of how we analyze it, Hogan is in no way a first-down machine.

 

If I'm Buffalo, I'm really hoping that between Robey, Seymour, White, and Moore I've got a 3rd corner that can man up against Amendola so that I can use Gilmore's size against Hogan to keep him from clogging up coverage lanes. Then I can have Darby follow Edelman around the field and use my interior back-7 to mix things up against Gronk and keep Brady confused. I'll gladly commit 6 defenders to stopping NE's 4-5 passing options (including a guy like Lewis or White out of the backfield) if it means confusing Tommy Boy.

[Mr. WEO]

yep, and the Rex defense is all about confusion. you cannot beat Brady playing is straight, need to be unconventional..

 

 

After last season, this seems to be the consensus, according to many team sources...

 

 

 

 

 

 

It'll be interesting to see how NE folds Hogan into their approach. He's not a quick-twitch guy like Edelman or Amendola, but he's a solid route-runner and a good blocker. I'm sure having a bigger guy that can wall off defenders on those pick plays is going to be a boon for their approach. One thing I know about Hogan is that he's hardly a 1st-down machine. In 2015, Tyrod converted 129 first downs via pass; of those, ~87% went to WR1-WR3 or TE1 (41 went to Watkins, 27 to Woods, 26 to Clay, and 18 to Hogan). That means that Hogan was responsible for only 13.9% of the 1st downs that Tyrod converted via pass (compared to 31.7% for Watkins, 20.9% for Woods, and 20.2% for Clay).

 

Moreover, Hogan was 4th among the above-mentioned in terms of the percentage of his targets that resulted in 1st downs. Watkins converted 41 of his 95 targets for 1sts (43%), Woods converted 27 of 81 targets (33%), Clay converted 26 of 77 targets (34%), and Hogan converted 18 of 59 targets (30.5%). IMO, regardless of how we analyze it, Hogan is in no way a first-down machine.

 

 

50% of Hogan's catches were for first downs--essentially the same as Clay and not very different than #2 Woods. What do you expect from the #4 WR?

[thebandit27]

 

 

After last season, this seems to be the consensus, according to many team sources...

 

 

50% of Hogan's catches were for first downs--essentially the same as Clay and not very different than #2 Woods. What do you expect from the #4 WR?

 

Check the context of the post to which I responded.

 

The statement was, effectively, that Taylor's offense will suffer without his "first-down machine". My point, in that context, is quite clear: a guy that accounted for 18 total passing first downs does not qualify as being Taylor's first-down machine, nor should his defection be something that holds back the offense. For comparison's sake, Greg Salas had 3 first downs on 3 receptions (5 targets) in his only game time last year.

 

Does that mean that Salas will be a great player, or even better than Hogan? No. The point, as I said, is that they didn't lose a guy that was their primary, secondary, or even tertiary first-down producer in the passing game.

[Mr. WEO]

 

Check the context of the post to which I responded.

 

The statement was, effectively, that Taylor's offense will suffer without his "first-down machine". My point, in that context, is quite clear: a guy that accounted for 18 total passing first downs does not qualify as being Taylor's first-down machine, nor should his defection be something that holds back the offense. For comparison's sake, Greg Salas had 3 first downs on 3 receptions (5 targets) in his only game time last year.

 

Does that mean that Salas will be a great player, or even better than Hogan? No. The point, as I said, is that they didn't lose a guy that was their primary, secondary, or even tertiary first-down producer in the passing game.

 

 

Sorry. I missed his "first down machine" moniker for Hogan. You're right the offense likely won't suffer without him.

[Nihilarian]

Regarding the receivers, I do give credit to guys like Edelman for doing their jobs. To me, it's more a symptom than a cause. Brady's ability to read the defense, identify coverages, and re-position his targets before the snap really opens things up for these guys.

 

I'll also say that they're coached to run pick plays like no team I've ever seen. On literally every underneath route, there's someone rubbing a defender away from his man, making him unable to redirect the route. They've almost taken the same stance on OPI as Seattle took on DPI the year that they won the Super Bowl: they can't call it every down, so just keep doing it and we'll take the 2-3 penalties per game in order to derive the benefit on the 15-20 times we get away with it. It's smart football actually; doesn't mean I don't hate it.

 

The biggest reason that Rex was able to frustrate Brady the 2nd time around last year was that he was able to take Gronk out of the game. That's their bread-and-butter. If you can scheme Gronk out of the game without dedicating two full-time coverage players to him, you're going to have a higher measure of success against Brady, because as good as guys like Edelman and Amendola may be at foiling underneath man coverage, they aren't better than the top NFL corners when matched 1-on-1 (hence why they didn't make big plays against teams like Buffalo or Denver).

 

It'll be interesting to see how NE folds Hogan into their approach. He's not a quick-twitch guy like Edelman or Amendola, but he's a solid route-runner and a good blocker. I'm sure having a bigger guy that can wall off defenders on those pick plays is going to be a boon for their approach. One thing I know about Hogan is that he's hardly a 1st-down machine. In 2015, Tyrod converted 129 first downs via pass; of those, ~87% went to WR1-WR3 or TE1 (41 went to Watkins, 27 to Woods, 26 to Clay, and 18 to Hogan). That means that Hogan was responsible for only 13.9% of the 1st downs that Tyrod converted via pass (compared to 31.7% for Watkins, 20.9% for Woods, and 20.2% for Clay).

 

Moreover, Hogan was 4th among the above-mentioned in terms of the percentage of his targets that resulted in 1st downs. Watkins converted 41 of his 95 targets for 1sts (43%), Woods converted 27 of 81 targets (33%), Clay converted 26 of 77 targets (34%), and Hogan converted 18 of 59 targets (30.5%). IMO, regardless of how we analyze it, Hogan is in no way a first-down machine.

 

If I'm Buffalo, I'm really hoping that between Robey, Seymour, White, and Moore I've got a 3rd corner that can man up against Amendola so that I can use Gilmore's size against Hogan to keep him from clogging up coverage lanes. Then I can have Darby follow Edelman around the field and use my interior back-7 to mix things up against Gronk and keep Brady confused. I'll gladly commit 6 defenders to stopping NE's 4-5 passing options (including a guy like Lewis or White out of the backfield) if it means confusing Tommy Boy.

Oh, excuse me! Did I say that Hogan was a first down machine for Buffalo? I had meant to say that he will probably eventually fill that role for the Patriots like Wes Welker did and like Edelman, Amendola have done recently. Considering how often both Edelman and Amendola are injured it wouldn't hurt for them to develop another player who can move the chains for the Patriots. To me, that's what the Patriots offense is all about in finding a way to move the chains and make that first down again and again and then score. The Patriots just have so many weapons and ways to attack a defense when everyone is healthy it's almost impossible for any team to stop them.

 

 

I don't know if Brady was "frustrated" simply because he still managed to throw for almost 300 yards (277) and win the game, didn't he? While the Bills did take Gronk away from the Patriots week 11 in that particular game by rolling coverages towards him and limited his receptions to only 2 for 37 yards. Brady also found Amendola that day for 9 receptions for 117 yards and I'm pretty sure that if Julian Edelman hadn't had a season-ending injury two games earlier, that he would have been another solid weapon for ole Tom that day. As for stopping all the big plays? Amendola did have a 41-yard reception that game.

 

Looking at the Patriots offensive line for 2015, not one player on that line started a full 16 games for them and they were shuffling players in and out of the lineup weekly. Let's also not forget that the Patriots were missing their starting RB in Dion Lewis at that point too. He only played in six games in 2015 but already rushed 49 times for 234 yards a 4.8 YPC Avg and had 36 receptions for 388 yards receiving. Talking about stats. Edelman in 8 games had 61 receptions for 692 yards and 7 TD's too.

 

 

In that week 11 game last year I will give Rex Ryan credit for actually getting pressure on Brady on about 50% of his dropbacks and Bills fans hadn't seen that much pressure on an opposing QB since week one against the Colts.Yet the Bills defense only managed one sack all game and that singular sack was from a linebacker. More then confusion, I attribute all that pressure from actually calling some blitz plays that were effective against a weakened offensive line, and Brady missing some of his favorite targets. It also looked like Ryan took the time to properly put some effort into the weekly defensive game plan for this game. Which was a complete reversal from that week two debacle!

 

 

Rex Ryan did manage to beat the Patriots with his Jets team once in 2009, 2x in 2010 and one of those was a playoff game in NE. No wins in 2011, no wins in 2013, once in 2013, no wins in 2014. So, in 6 years with the Jets Ryan won 4x out of 13 games. (Just a note. In his last win in 2013 in OT, the Jets ran 52 times for 177 yards and the Jets Time of Possession was 46:13.) So now Ryan is 15 and 4 against NE as a head coach.

 

Tom Brady is 25 and 3 against Buffalo and has thrown for over 7000 yards, 62 TD's in those 28 games. The only team in the league Brady has a losing record against is Denver at 5-6.

[thebandit27]

Oh, excuse me! Did I say that Hogan was a first down machine for Buffalo? I had meant to say that he will probably eventually fill that role for the Patriots like Wes Welker did and like Edelman, Amendola have done recently. Considering how often both Edelman and Amendola are injured it wouldn't hurt for them to develop another player who can move the chains for the Patriots. To me, that's what the Patriots offense is all about in finding a way to move the chains and make that first down again and again and then score. The Patriots just have so many weapons and ways to attack a defense when everyone is healthy it's almost impossible for any team to stop them.

 

 

I don't know if Brady was "frustrated" simply because he still managed to throw for almost 300 yards (277) and win the game, didn't he? While the Bills did take Gronk away from the Patriots week 11 in that particular game by rolling coverages towards him and limited his receptions to only 2 for 37 yards. Brady also found Amendola that day for 9 receptions for 117 yards and I'm pretty sure that if Julian Edelman hadn't had a season-ending injury two games earlier, that he would have been another solid weapon for ole Tom that day. As for stopping all the big plays? Amendola did have a 41-yard reception that game.

 

Looking at the Patriots offensive line for 2015, not one player on that line started a full 16 games for them and they were shuffling players in and out of the lineup weekly. Let's also not forget that the Patriots were missing their starting RB in Dion Lewis at that point too. He only played in six games in 2015 but already rushed 49 times for 234 yards a 4.8 YPC Avg and had 36 receptions for 388 yards receiving. Talking about stats. Edelman in 8 games had 61 receptions for 692 yards and 7 TD's too.

 

 

In that week 11 game last year I will give Rex Ryan credit for actually getting pressure on Brady on about 50% of his dropbacks and Bills fans hadn't seen that much pressure on an opposing QB since week one against the Colts.Yet the Bills defense only managed one sack all game and that singular sack was from a linebacker. More then confusion, I attribute all that pressure from actually calling some blitz plays that were effective against a weakened offensive line, and Brady missing some of his favorite targets. It also looked like Ryan took the time to properly put some effort into the weekly defensive game plan for this game. Which was a complete reversal from that week two debacle!

 

 

Rex Ryan did manage to beat the Patriots with his Jets team once in 2009, 2x in 2010 and one of those was a playoff game in NE. No wins in 2011, no wins in 2013, once in 2013, no wins in 2014. So, in 6 years with the Jets Ryan won 4x out of 13 games. (Just a note. In his last win in 2013 in OT, the Jets ran 52 times for 177 yards and the Jets Time of Possession was 46:13.) So now Ryan is 15 and 4 against NE as a head coach.

 

Tom Brady is 25 and 3 against Buffalo and has thrown for over 7000 yards, 62 TD's in those 28 games. The only team in the league Brady has a losing record against is Denver at 5-6.

I agree with most of this; my statement about Brady being frustrated was based upon his demeanor during the game--he acted the way he does when things aren't going his way (which is not often).

 

I also think that it's unrealistic to expect to prevent big plays from Brady altogether; it's far more reasonable to try to limit them. Do what Belichick does: take away the thing that your opponent does best (get the ball to Gronk).

 

Anyway, here's hoping that Rex does more of what we saw in that game and less of what we saw in weeks 2-7.