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538 Article on the Bills


CodeMonkey

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The Bills Are Proof That A Team Needs More Than Just A Good QB

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-bills-are-proof-that-a-team-needs-more-than-just-a-good-qb/

 

Their biggest problem is defense, Rex Ryan’s supposed defensive genius be damned. The Bills were forecast to be second in the league. Instead, the Bills’ defense has been only average, no matter if you look at a simple statistic like yards allowed per game or an advanced statistic like Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.
Edited by CodeMonkey
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Decent article but the fact is most likely that if TT played against CIN and JAX the Bills would be 6-3 or 7-2, which is a tad better or (7-2) a lot better than most would have predicted, even with the average defense. Remember that the EJ led Bills were down three points at halftime against the Bengals.

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Yet the defense couldn't stop a thing in that game.

 

They'd be 6-3 right now if Tyrod didn't miss the Jax game. No way they beat the Bengals with how poor our defense was.

Maybe. But it's probably a different game all around. The Bills control the ball more and the defense isn't on the field. The defense also probably plays differently and the coaches call the game differently with EJ versus Tyrod. If I had to bet I would for sure say we lose that game, too. But it's possible it would have been a completely different game. Plus, maybe Sammy doesn't go out at the half, which also makes it a different second half.

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Decent article but the fact is most likely that if TT played against CIN and JAX the Bills would be 6-3 or 7-2, which is a tad better or (7-2) a lot better than most would have predicted, even with the average defense. Remember that the EJ led Bills were down three points at halftime against the Bengals.

I had Buffalo @ 5-3 mid season.

 

We will not know and can only speculate WRT Cinci, but I'd still think the Bungles take that game. I'd say more but prefer not to further the argument of poor play against bad teams and that QB's have bad days.

Edited by BillsFan-4-Ever
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Agreed- Tyrod was no savior v the Giants. Cinci was walking all over the defense. Marvin jones had a career day

 

Giants game was Tyrod's 4th career start, and he had neither Shady nor Sammy. But by all means, blame him for the loss.

 

Cinci game was 3 pts. at the half, and Bills were about to force Cinci to punt early in the 3rd when Dalton dropped an absolutely perfect deep ball into Jones' hands despite excellent coverage. There are LOTS of things that could have gone differently that day.

 

Playing the "what if" game is almost never a productive use of time.

 

Whoever said "you are what your record says you are" is right.

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Do we control the ball more?

 

I believe we lead the league in 3 and outs with Taylor as our starter.

Not a knock on Tyrod at all, but I think that is a bigger problem than our defense. I am disappointed that the defense isn't what it was the previous two seasons, but there seems to be a trend in all the games (at least where Tryod has been the starter) where the offense just seems to be stuck in the mud for a half a game. Granted, the Bills are like #6 in scoring (can you believe that!), so they are doing something right... but those seemingly endless 3 and out series will kill you, especially against a good team. Not really sure what the answer is. Better/different play calling? I would really like to see them get the ball to Clay a little more than they have. A great (or at least very good) pass catching tight end can be such a huge advantage in so many different ways, for an offense.

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Not a knock on Tyrod at all, but I think that is a bigger problem than our defense. I am disappointed that the defense isn't what it was the previous two seasons, but there seems to be a trend in all the games (at least where Tryod has been the starter) where the offense just seems to be stuck in the mud for a half a game. Granted, the Bills are like #6 in scoring (can you believe that!), so they are doing something right... but those seemingly endless 3 and out series will kill you, especially against a good team. Not really sure what the answer is. Better/different play calling? I would really like to see them get the ball to Clay a little more than they have. A great (or at least very good) pass catching tight end can be such a huge advantage in so many different ways, for an offense.

As I said above it was 5 out of 10 with EJ in the Cinci game.

A lot of our 3 and outs with TT early in the season were from that crazy run of penalties where we would be first and 20. He's had his share of them, don't get me wrong, but it hasn't been because he was totally inefficient.

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