Thrivefourfive Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 These are blurbs from the fantasy football perspective. It may not mean much for NFL wins and loses, but it's insight from someone who studies player production closely, and has a good track record for predictions. In case you don't have a subscription, some of the article is below. http://www.fantasyguru.com/football/subscribers/articles/2015overvalued.php Overvalued LeSean McCoy (Buf, 13 ADP) – Look, it’s very clear McCoy is going to get a ton of touches. The Bills traded young (albeit recently injured) star Kiko Alonso to the Eagles for him, and then signed him to a new deal. The Bills have publicly expressed their desire to limit Fred Jackson’s snaps, and Jackson himself has said he expects McCoy to get 300 carries this year. Here are the problems beyond that: First of all, McCoy is moving from a Philly line that was inconsistent but all-around solid blocking for the run last year, to a Buffalo line that wasn’t. And McCoy himself was ineffective on a per-touch basis in Philly last year, especially as a receiver, where his nose-dived from 52 catches and 10.4 YPR in 2013 to 28 catches and 5.5 YPR in 2014. McCoy was also ineffective in goal-line situations, where he fell out of favor to Chris Polk and even Darren Sproles late last season. If you’re all about volume and think McCoy is bound to rebound, especially since he’s just 27, you could certainly be right. But in addition to the issues outlined here, we also have some concerns about his leading the NFL in touches the last five seasons, and also how he’ll react to running behind a FB, which for McCoy may not be a good thing, since he’s a creator more than a guy who likes things defined. Otherwise, we believe there are enough red flags to pass up McCoy for younger backs (Jeremy Hill, C.J. Anderson) or frankly better-bet receivers at his mid-June 12.8 ADP in a 12-team PPR league. Avoid Percy Harvin (Buf, 114 ADP) – Harvin hasn’t been a reliable fantasy player since leaving the Vikings in 2012, but he’s still being drafted like he’s a difference maker. Harvin wants to be more of a traditional WR in Buffalo instead of the gadget role he’s played for most of his career. Of course, carries and non-traditional touches have been a big help to his fantasy value, so that could hurt his fantasy value. Harvin also joined a team that has a big-time WR in Sammy Watkins, in addition to RB LeSean McCoy and their newest signing, TE Charles Clay. Add in a checkdown QB like Matt Cassel, and it’s hard to get excited about Harvin’s prospects in Buffalo. We can’t expect any consistency out of Harvin, and we also can’t expect him to play 16 games either with his injury history, so he’s not worth a look. We’ve been down on Harvin for years running now (after loving him early in his career), and while we weren’t correct in 2012, we eventually were that year, since he missed half the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I know this is fantasy but it is also very important for this team - McCoy is very good but he's not great. I do not and will never like this deal or LeSean McCoy. Alonso will have a better career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I would never draft Harvin. McCoy seems like great value late in the first round, though. He has no issues running behind a FB. He did so in college and in Andy Reid's system. The O-line is the only question mark for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's in My Blood Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I know this is fantasy but it is also very important for this team - McCoy is very good but he's not great. I do not and will never like this deal or LeSean McCoy. Alonso will have a better career. Give up your man crush already. McCoy will serve this team better than Alonso ever would. Kiko had ONE HALF of a good rookie year, plus we have Bradham anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I know this is fantasy but it is also very important for this team - McCoy is very good but he's not great. I do not and will never like this deal or LeSean McCoy. Alonso will have a better career. McCoy could still be on pace for a HoF career. If Kiko has a HoF career, that's great, but comparing a LB to a RB is apples to oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I know this is fantasy but it is also very important for this team - McCoy is very good but he's not great. I do not and will never like this deal or LeSean McCoy. Alonso will have a better career. I'll take that bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QB Bills Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I know this is fantasy but it is also very important for this team - McCoy is very good but he's not great. I do not and will never like this deal or LeSean McCoy. Alonso will have a better career. Yup. Crappy trade. Funny how Alonso suddenly became overrated the day he got traded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Yup. Crappy trade. Funny how Alonso suddenly became overrated the day he got traded. By the same token, it's funny how McCoy suddenly became a health risk and on the decline the moment he became a Bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Yup. Crappy trade. Funny how Alonso suddenly became overrated the day he got traded. I do believe he was overrated at MLB. And have said he wore out by the end of the year. But, as a Jack in a 34 or a Will in a 43 this guy is poised to contribute. In the right system, Alonso will go far. He has a knack to play and as long as he plays behind a good DL, which he has in Phili, he will be able to roam the field almost like a FS covering the short plays. He will have a Pro Bowl year. By the same token, it's funny how McCoy suddenly became a health risk and on the decline the moment he became a Bill. I never cared for McCoy. I have preached that we need big, tough backs in this league today. McCoy is flashy, quick, elusive. But, on this team that won't get much when you have defenders in your face behind the LOS. Look at Spiller last year, yes, it was vision, but still I do not see McCoy having much better luck. Felton is the wildcard, maybe I will be completely wrong with a competent blocker. But, still, a back like Karlos Williams, Boobie Dixon, Carlos Hyde, LaGarret Blount, Marshawn Lynch would be better suited for what we are fielding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I never cared for McCoy. I have preached that we need big, tough backs in this league today. McCoy is flashy, quick, elusive. But, on this team that won't get much when you have defenders in your face behind the LOS. Look at Spiller last year, yes, it was vision, but still I do not see McCoy having much better luck. Felton is the wildcard, maybe I will be completely wrong with a competent blocker. But, still, a back like Karlos Williams, Boobie Dixon, Carlos Hyde, LaGarret Blount, Marshawn Lynch would be better suited for what we are fielding. I hear you, but I think you'll be signing a different tune by Week 8 this year. McCoy is not just an elusive guy, he can run out of an I formation and between the tackles. His greatest strength is his ability to make people miss in the hole, I expect him to thrive with Roman as his OC and the way he creates running lanes. But we'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Kiko has injury issues. He does. Are they flukey? Maybe. Maybe he's just weak. Some guys are weaker than others physically. While I would've rather have kept him and signed Murray (another injury plagued player), McCoy is durable and productive....every season. I think he'll be a top 5-10 fantasy rb and will be just fine in this offense. He is not cj spiller. Roman is not Nate Hackett. McCoy will be just fine as long as our QB doesn't completely suck I would never touch Harvin in fantasy. Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrivefourfive Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 McCoy is projected in that area over all. Harvin has always been a risk. A few years ago he paid off big time for the first half of the season. Then...injuries. I have pick 3 in my big league, and I won't be taking McCoy because Buffalo. Watkins would be the only Bill I'd touch but he would have to be the right price. At some point his talent has to produce numbers. Staking him as a number 2 wr after three strong rbs would be a good scenerio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Fans should be extra aware this season about fantasy good versus valuable good. I doubt any Bill will have a great stats year or be a great fantasy player. But that is because there are 7-8 guys who are going to be getting the ball. Clay especially is going to take heat from fans for not putting up numbers relative to his salary and he will likely be right up there as MVP of this offense because of what they can do with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaadThingsMan Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I would take McCoy anywhere from 6 on. He's gonna be a valuable RB this year! I'd take a late round flyer on Harvin in a 12 man or higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRex Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Fans should be extra aware this season about fantasy good versus valuable good. I doubt any Bill will have a great stats year or be a great fantasy player. But that is because there are 7-8 guys who are going to be getting the ball. Clay especially is going to take heat from fans for not putting up numbers relative to his salary and he will likely be right up there as MVP of this offense because of what they can do with him. Actually, one thing Rex has said which I believe (and a good chunk is not to be believed if Rex is smart which he is- the important thing for an HC to be successful in the NFL is NOT "don't lie" it's "don't get caught lying without a feasible excuse for your lie") is that the O players he has assembled will be a match-up nightmare for an opponent. I would avoid taking just about any Bill as being my fantasy teams # 1 at just about any position. Even at its best Ryan/Roman are going to have to distribute good touches to a bunch of players. Simply to keep everyone happy it is doubtful that the QB (whoever that may be and it looks like Ryan has set-it-up so this team will win Ws by the QB being the best game manager handing off frequently in a Roman rotate btw. McCoy/Jax hand-off/short passes and it is to be hoped good ROC from Clay/TE, and well-placed check-offs and occasional stop/go flys to Watkins/Harvin/Woods. If this O works. all are very good and get their props on Sportscenter, but none of them are fantasy workhorse producers. The fantasy sweetspot is to spend your fantasy $ securing a likely producing workhorse at all fantasy O positions AND then get Bills as cheaply as you can to start them in your league only when the D match-ups look advantageous. If the opponent has good run defenders and lets say 1 lockdown CB, that's the week you start Harvin. who should feast on the opponents # 2 (or maybe they zone up and Woods is the likely hot target) If the opponent has weak safeties start McCoy or has given up significant run yardage its McCoy time. Understanding the opponent will be a key to acquiring and using Bills O players in most fantasy lands this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Actually, one thing Rex has said which I believe (and a good chunk is not to be believed if Rex is smart which he is- the important thing for an HC to be successful in the NFL is NOT "don't lie" it's "don't get caught lying without a feasible excuse for your lie") is that the O players he has assembled will be a match-up nightmare for an opponent. I would avoid taking just about any Bill as being my fantasy teams # 1 at just about any position. Even at its best Ryan/Roman are going to have to distribute good touches to a bunch of players. Simply to keep everyone happy it is doubtful that the QB (whoever that may be and it looks like Ryan has set-it-up so this team will win Ws by the QB being the best game manager handing off frequently in a Roman rotate btw. McCoy/Jax hand-off/short passes and it is to be hoped good ROC from Clay/TE, and well-placed check-offs and occasional stop/go flys to Watkins/Harvin/Woods. If this O works. all are very good and get their props on Sportscenter, but none of them are fantasy workhorse producers. The fantasy sweetspot is to spend your fantasy $ securing a likely producing workhorse at all fantasy O positions AND then get Bills as cheaply as you can to start them in your league only when the D match-ups look advantageous. If the opponent has good run defenders and lets say 1 lockdown CB, that's the week you start Harvin. who should feast on the opponents # 2 (or maybe they zone up and Woods is the likely hot target) If the opponent has weak safeties start McCoy or has given up significant run yardage its McCoy time. Understanding the opponent will be a key to acquiring and using Bills O players in most fantasy lands this year. Exactly. And to make it worse, it could be the Woods, Goodwin, Hogan, Oleary, Gray guys are getting a bunch of touches because Roman is banking on defenses worried about McCoy, Watkins, Harvin and Clay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrivefourfive Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 (edited) Exactly. And to make it worse, it could be the Woods, Goodwin, Hogan, Oleary, Gray guys are getting a bunch of touches because Roman is banking on defenses worried about McCoy, Watkins, Harvin and Clay. Which means you probably can't touch any of them because they may all be hit or miss from weeks 1-16. McCoy is the only Bill that starts the season as a must start in fantasy. If healthy, he should stay there. Good owners will have options better than Sammy to start the season, and that's all because of the QB and heavy run scheme. I can see Buffalo trying to rush the ball 45+ times against the Colts. Hopefully though, Sammy's talent wins out and he dominates 10 or so games this season, making him a must start in a flex league. Clay, Woods, Jackson...no way, unless injuries to McCoy, Watkins, and Harvin. Is Harvin returning kicks? Punts? The Bills defense is a must start to open the season, even with Luck. If Harvin is in the return game, that's a fantastic bonus for the fantasy unit. My site ranks them numero uno. Edited June 28, 2015 by Thrivefourfive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Which means you probably can't touch any of them because they may all be hit or miss from weeks 1-16. McCoy is the only Bill that starts the season as a must start in fantasy. If healthy, he should stay there. Good owners will have options better than Sammy to start the season, and that's all because of the QB and heavy run scheme. I can see Buffalo trying to rush the ball 45+ times against the Colts. Hopefully though, Sammy's talent wins out and he dominates 10 or so games this season, making him a must start in a flex league. Clay, Woods, Jackson...no way, unless injuries to McCoy, Watkins, and Harvin. Is Harvin returning kicks? Punts? The Bills defense is a must start to open the season, even with Luck. If Harvin is in the return game, that's a fantastic bonus for the fantasy unit. My site ranks them numero uno. He's going to return kicks not punts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 (edited) Mc Coy needs a good OL like Spiller needed for there style. Mc Coy's high salary might make re-signing some key Bills a problem. The 2015 draft was strong for RBs like 2014 was for WRs. Starting to be a bit skeptical of Whaley. I would have drafted Zack Martin instead of losing a extra 1st and 4th for Watkins . FWIW Edited June 28, 2015 by ALF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Reddit/NFL has McCoy not even ranked in the top 10 RBs, if you want a feel for general opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts