dulles Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Oh, I agree. I won't be upset at all if any QB plays really well for us, though my hope is much more for EJ or Tyrod just due to age and also skillset for Roman. Definitely agree. I'd lean heavily toward the younger guys for similar reasons. As a long-suffering Bills fan, I can see Cassel leading us to the playoffs only to have his career ended like Kurt Warner's in that playoff game vs. NO. That was one of the scarier moments ever. The close ups of his face afterward were startling. Anyway...I digress...younger guys. I also really like Roman's creativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 If he was invited, he probably couldn't make it since he worked for four months with Steve DeBerg and then Hogan in NJ. According to the article, they were all working out at "Bommarito Performance Systems" - does one need to be invited to work out at a facility offering performance training? Or do you just ring up and pay? It also sounds as though it was written about the 2014 off-season since it talks about Taylor "capitalizing on the final year of his rookie contract" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Here's an interesting tidbit regarding Orton last year. Orton's first 4 games: 95-141-1128-9-3 67.4% completion, 8.0 ypa, 104.0 QBR Orton's final 8 games: 192-306-1890-9-7 62.7% completion, 6.1 ypa, 80.4 QBR Or this: vs. NYJ ........................ 34/49 for 468, 6 TDs and 0 ints for a rating of 139.3 vs. the other 10 ........... 253/398 for 2550, 12 TDs and 10 ints for a rating of 81.3 and the Bills averaged 18.3 ppg. Kyle fattened his stats against the Jets and the other 83% of the time he produced like EJ (passer rating wise.) When you factor in sacks and the lost yardage and the potential for rushing yardage, EJ would come out ahead. "Kyle gives us the best chance to win" is the big fallacy of the Bills' 2014 season but it did give EJ a chance to Cntl ALt Delete on his career path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moshermw Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 I'm just looking forward to the clever nicknames that will be popping up for Tyrod's many endorsement deals. Tsquared, Double T, Touchdown Taylor and on on on. . . It's fun and on topic. It was T-Mobile at VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moshermw Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 I think relying upon whatever player statements happen to get quoted by news media is sort of lower down on the accuracy level of prediction than reading tea leaves or using a Ouija board but that's just me. We don't know what questions were asked, we don't know what was said and not reported by a guy trying to "spin" up a story, and we don't know how what was said reflects a players real opinions. I'll be happy with whichever QB shows best in training camp and preseason being our starter. That said, I would like to know where it is documented that Flacco would not allow TT to play with the 1s in any game or practice or that they beat "Team Flacco" Can you share links, please? Or explain your source and basis? QB throw against D, not against other QB, right? How does this make sense he "beat Team Flacco"? Was he playing against the Ravens 1's on D or the 2's? I am also curious where any of the players and coaches have said "TT is the real deal". He has won praise for athleticism (no surprise), his throwing motion (good, he's worked on it), and accuracy (also good to hear) but it's a long step from praising a guy's accuracy and throwing motion in shorts in OTAs and saying "he's the real deal" as an NFL QB, which is something that can only be seen when the pads go on and it's live hitting. The quotes I've heard from Rex are more measured. Easy one first: Head Coach John Harbaugh split up his team during Monday’s practice at M&T Bank Stadium. There was Team Tyrod and Team Flacco, with the second- and first-team offenses squaring off in an 11-on-11 scrimmage. Team Tyrod won. http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Tyrod-Taylor-Impressing-In-Training-Camp/e7667379-51a8-4aaf-a0ad-3421da5a247c The second one is harder to prove with any actual article. Best way to prove is to challenge you to find me TT stats with him playing as Ravens QB and clearly with the rest of the #1 offense in a game or pre-season game. Not an accident that it might be really hard for you. The reason is from admittedly not revealable sources. Shaky...I know. but go for it on the challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Easy one first: Head Coach John Harbaugh split up his team during Monday’s practice at M&T Bank Stadium. There was Team Tyrod and Team Flacco, with the second- and first-team offenses squaring off in an 11-on-11 scrimmage. Team Tyrod won. http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Tyrod-Taylor-Impressing-In-Training-Camp/e7667379-51a8-4aaf-a0ad-3421da5a247c The second one is harder to prove with any actual article. Best way to prove is to challenge you to find me TT stats with him playing as Ravens QB and clearly with the rest of the #1 offense in a game or pre-season game. Not an accident that it might be really hard for you. The reason is from admittedly not revealable sources. Shaky...I know. but go for it on the challenge. Hey, Mo. Thanks for the response and the link. I'm afraid it isn't enough info for me to vet your conclusion - if it's 11-on-11, and Team Tyrod drew the #2s and #3s D, hard to say if Tyrod > Flacco or D against Tyrod << D against Flacco, y'know what I mean? One would have to see Flacco vs Taylor against the same D to draw any conclusions of relative quality, not? I believe you that Taylor never played with the Ravens #1s in preseason or reg. season. That's the typical fate of the backup QB - gets put in with the bubble guys in preseason and along with the 2nd string in "mop up time" with the playoffs already locked down. What's farfetched to me and can't be accepted without a better level of proof is that Flacco had anything to do with that, because it's SOP across the league wherever there's an entrenched starter, and because Harbaugh has always seemed to run a reasonably (but not overly) tight ship and catering to one player's ego is one way to punch a hole in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 There are but few things that are worse for an intelligent and energetic internet forum than a Troll with Self Control. Imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 (edited) Or this: vs. NYJ ........................ 34/49 for 468, 6 TDs and 0 ints for a rating of 139.3 vs. the other 10 ........... 253/398 for 2550, 12 TDs and 10 ints for a rating of 81.3 and the Bills averaged 18.3 ppg. Kyle fattened his stats against the Jets and the other 83% of the time he produced like EJ (passer rating wise.) When you factor in sacks and the lost yardage and the potential for rushing yardage, EJ would come out ahead. "Kyle gives us the best chance to win" is the big fallacy of the Bills' 2014 season but it did give EJ a chance to Cntl ALt Delete on his career path. Why would you ever delete the good games from total stats? Are you aware that the Jets' defense finished 6th overall in yardage given up last season? Edited June 5, 2015 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Why would you ever delete the good games from total stats? Are you aware that the Jets' defense finished 6th overall in yardage given up last season? Dave, I agree with you but it goes with the philosophy that states "oh, QB XYZ isn't that good, he just fattens his stats in garbage time" - a comment I've never understood, since the difference between "garbage time" and "a thrilling comeback victory" is determined by the final outcome and why wouldn't you want a QB who performs well and keeps fighting to the end? Stats are stats - misunderstood and misused sometimes, but let's not cherry-pick the ones we like or dislike without a really good reason. We could probably choose a reason to delete a couple of Orton's bad games too - hmmm let's see, how about the win against GB ('cuz Green Bay) and the loss against the Browns ('cuz Pettine unfair advantage)? I'm not suggesting we do so, just pointing out to all that selectivity goes both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Why would you ever delete the good games from total stats? Are you aware that the Jets' defense finished 6th overall in yardage given up last season? Ever heard of game splits? Stats by quarter, by down and distance, score differential, home/away, grass/turf, formation, etc, etc. etc, This is not deletion so much as looking at production in isolation. How and where it occurs. People complain about "garbage time" stats all the time. Kicking the crap out the Jets is much the same and having 2 great games does tend to skew the view. Beware the mean and embrace the median. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris heff Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Oh, I agree. I won't be upset at all if any QB plays really well for us, though my hope is much more for EJ or Tyrod just due to age and also skillset for Roman. Before I opened this thread I was thinking the same thing. The worst thing that could happen is Cassel winning the job. Not because Cassel sucks, but because it means one of these young QBs is not the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloMatt Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 It was T-Mobile at VT. College nickname good. Pro nickname has to be better! College nickname good. Pro nickname has to be better! Especially, for a NFL starting QB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 (edited) Ever heard of game splits? Stats by quarter, by down and distance, score differential, home/away, grass/turf, formation, etc, etc. etc, This is not deletion so much as looking at production in isolation. How and where it occurs. People complain about "garbage time" stats all the time. Kicking the crap out the Jets is much the same and having 2 great games does tend to skew the view. Beware the mean and embrace the median. Um ... I sure have heard of them. The problem with your argument is that by cherrypicking the non-Jets games to arrive at an assessment of Orton (81.3), you appear to be advocating dispensing with the Jets games altogether. I don't understand the rest of what you're saying, incidentally. I don't know what you mean by "embrace the median"--that just sounds like statistical mumbo jumbo to me. I'm also not sure what stats by quarter and the like have to do with his strong performances against a quality opponent (the Jets defense). Edited June 5, 2015 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Ever heard of game splits? Stats by quarter, by down and distance, score differential, home/away, grass/turf, formation, etc, etc. etc, This is not deletion so much as looking at production in isolation. How and where it occurs. People complain about "garbage time" stats all the time. Kicking the crap out the Jets is much the same and having 2 great games does tend to skew the view. Beware the mean and embrace the median. Except that the Jets games were not Orton's only great games, and in fact by some metrics such as completion percentage, the first Jets game can hardly be called "great" - only 10 completions, 58.8%, seriously? I mean, he's credited with 4 TD but be real, one of them was handed to him by the D at the 1 yd line and another was a short pass where the Jets lost contain on Watkins. The other two were nice plays By a number of QB metrics, the Detroit, Minn, and New England games were better for Orton. Point is, if you look at Orton's game logs and the box scores, there's no reason to paint both Jets games as outliers that have a rational basis for being excluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 (edited) Um ... I sure have heard of them. The problem with your argument is that by cherrypicking the non-Jets games to arrive at an assessment of Orton (81.3), you appear to be advocating dispensing with the Jets games altogether. I don't understand the rest of what you're saying, incidentally. I don't know what you mean by "embrace the median"--that just sounds like statistical mumbo jumbo to me. I'm also not sure what stats by quarter and the like have to do with his strong performances against a quality opponent (the Jets defense). Mean can be skewed heavily by factoring in outliers where as median is far less sensitive to extremes. The Jets D is quality but even the best defense is in trouble when your QBs combine for 6 (or was it 7?) turnovers and your offense can't stay on the field. That said, I have no idea what game splits are going to reveal that will distinguish two lackluster QBs from one another. With 16 games per season, I think adjusting for "garbage time", great performances, and poor performances is a tricky exercise. Edited June 5, 2015 by Jauronimo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 (edited) College nickname good. Pro nickname has to be better! Especially, for a NFL starting QB! Because like, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Russ Wilson, and Andrew Luck all have cool Pro nicknames in common and a cool nickname so helped the last B'lo QB we tagged with one?? I'll be happy if one of our QB play approaches within sniffing distance of any of the aforementioned and we can call him Matt, EJ, or Tyrod. Edited June 5, 2015 by Hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 (edited) Guys, I understand what the median and the mean are. I really do. I just think the term is invoked to here as a stand-in for actual analysis. It's the equivalent hand-waving ( http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/handwaving) , in my opinion, and the use of it here doesn't make sense to me. Anyway, please tell me this: why would anyone dispense with performances in games that matter more than others (divisional games) against a quality defense by either cutting them out altogether or claiming that they're skewed results even though they're 1/6 of a small sample size? Edited June 5, 2015 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 Guys, I understand what the median and the mean are. I really do. I just think the term is invoked to here as a stand-in for actual analysis. It's the equivalent hand-waving ( http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/handwaving) , in my opinion, and the use of it here doesn't make sense to me. Anyway, please tell me this: why would anyone dispense with performances in games that matter more than others (divisional games) against a quality defense by either cutting them out altogether or claiming that they're skewed results even though they're 1/6 of a small sample size? You see the mean is the average of all the results, with equal weighting on each data point, while the median is the midpoint of the sample. You could have extremes at either end of the distribution and the midpoint will not change that much, certainly not as much as the mean, generally speaking. I'm not sure how else to explain it, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 You see the mean is the average of all the results, with equal weighting on each data point, while the median is the midpoint of the sample. You could have extremes at either end of the distribution and the midpoint will not change that much, certainly not as much as the mean, generally speaking. I'm not sure how else to explain it, man. I very much understand what the terms mean. Truly, I do. What I don't understand is why the concept is being invoked here. It appears to me to be an exercise in hand-waving - when the poster was presented with a substantive counterargument, he invoked it as a substitute for analysis and indeed an "argument ender" (despite the fact that the response overall was substance free despite being chock full of stats geek mumbo jumbo). Anyway, the dude played in 12 games for the Bills - a small sample size. He put up excellent numbers in 1/6 of them against a divisional opponent that was 6th in yards allowed and 8th in yards per drive. Tell me why I should downplay it or discount it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted June 5, 2015 Share Posted June 5, 2015 (edited) I very much understand what the terms mean. Truly, I do. What I don't understand is why the concept is being invoked here. It appears to me to be an exercise in hand-waving - when the poster was presented with a substantive counterargument, he invoked it as a substitute for analysis and indeed an "argument ender" (despite the fact that the response overall was substance free despite being chock full of stats geek mumbo jumbo). Anyway, the dude played in 12 games for the Bills - a small sample size. He put up excellent numbers in 1/6 of them against a divisional opponent that was 6th in yards allowed and 8th in yards per drive. Tell me why I should downplay it or discount it? The thing about the mean and median is that they're two different statistical tools and in order to analyze data, understanding the difference is critical. I'm really not sure how else to explain it to you. Here are some links you may find helpful and hopefully will do a better job of explaining mean and median than I have: https://www.udacity.com/course/intro-to-statistics--st101 http://writing.colostate.edu/guides/guide.cfm?guideid=67 http://www.pixyland.org/peterpan/ Edited June 5, 2015 by Jauronimo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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