Coach55 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 (edited) Cleveland losing to Cincinnati and Denver winning this week just made the road a lot more difficult, but not impossible (just yet). Bills clearly need to win both. The games we really care about in the next 2 weeks: Den@Cin - we need Denver KC@Pit - we need Pit Cin@Pit - we need Pit SD@SF - SF wins, SD is out. if SD wins they go to KC for week 17, which we will need KC to win This path is very possible, but would give us the 6 seed. Remaining Playoff hopefuls' games with the above scenario: Den - @cin (W), OAK (W) - 13 wins (1st seed) NE - @nyj (W), BUF (L) - 12 wins (2nd seed) Ind - @dal (L), @TEN (W) - 11 wins (3rd seed) Pit - KC (W), CIN (W) - 11 wins (4th seed) Bal - @hou (W), CLE (W) - 11 wins (5th seed) Buf - @oak (W), @ne (W) - 10 wins (6th seed) Cin - DEN (L), @pit (L) - 9.5 wins (out) KC - @pit (L), SD (W) - 9 wins (out) SD - @SF (L), @KC (L) - 8 wins (out) Edited December 15, 2014 by Coach55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaattMaann Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Seed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach55 Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Seed Thanks - fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Cleveland losing to Cincinnati and Denver winning this week just made the road a lot more difficult, but not impossible (just yet). Bills clearly need to win both. The games we really care about in the next 2 weeks: Den@Cin - we need Denver KC@Pit - we need Pit Cin@Pit - we need Pit SD@SF - SF wins, SD is out. if SD wins they go to KC for week 17, which we will need KC to win This path is very possible, but would give us the 6 seed. Remaining Playoff hopefuls' games with the above scenario: Den - @cin (W), OAK (W) - 13 wins (1st seed) NE - @nyj (W), BUF (L) - 12 wins (2nd seed) Ind - @dal (L), @TEN (W) - 11 wins (3rd seed) Pit - KC (W), CIN (W) - 11 wins (4th seed) Bal - @hou (W), CLE (W) - 11 wins (5th seed) Buf - @oak (W), @ne (W) - 10 wins (6th seed) Cin - DEN (L), @pit (L) - 9.5 wins (out) KC - @pit (L), SD (W) - 9 wins (out) SD - @SF (L), @KC (L) - 8 wins (out) Yeah, I've mentioned in other threads (and I don't know why this isn't apparent to others) that the greatest likelihood for us getting in is Cincy losing twice against tough teams, Pitt winning out and SD losing at least one. I think the Steelers are playing some of the best football in the league right now and the Ravens remaining schedule is pathetic. So, any hope of either of those teams losing both their remaining games is ridiculous, especially when Pitt winning helps us so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luap22 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 GOOD POSTS IF WE TIE BALT AT 10-6, are we in or out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I ran some scenarios on The Playoff Machine, and there are a few where we're the 5th seed. Gotta beat the Pats at the Razor for the first time ever, which is a very tall order. Feeling better about that after shutting down Manning the Rodgers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 (edited) Here is an easy breakdown: We need either Cincy, Baltimore, or Pittsburgh to lose both games. We also need KC and SD to lose one of their games. As far as tie breakers go, I believe we lose all tie-breakers at 10-6 with every team remaining in it. Baltimore would have us on common opponent games. They are currently 2-1 vs Mia, Cle, and SD with Hou and Cle remaining. We are 2-3 in games vs those opponents with none left. If Baltimore falls to 2-3 vs those opponents they will have already fell to 9-7 overall and the tie-breaker would be moot. It is also possible to get in if two AFC North teams lose both their games and either SD or KC lose at least one game. However, it would have to be Baltimore losing to Hou and Cle and Cincy or PItt losing both games (as they play each other week 17 they both can't lose both games). I find it unlikely that Baltimore will lose both and I think that our best bet is actually Cincy losing vs Denver and at Pittsburgh. Man the Texans and Chiefs games are killing us. Edited December 15, 2014 by Mark80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 SD/KC both winning their games this week would be a major blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 SD/KC both winning their games this week would be a major blow. Yeah, taking out the possibility of ties in week 17, that would mean we need Baltimore to lose out vs Houston and Cleveland. That ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 the way I see it, this week we want Bills Texans over Ravens Steelers over Chiefs 49ers over Chargers This alone would put the Bills in 6th headed into Foxboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 the way I see it, this week we want Bills Texans over Ravens Steelers over Chiefs 49ers over Chargers This alone would put the Bills in 6th headed into Foxboro No it would not. We lose all tie-breakers to AFC North. The Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens would still be ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Thats what the playoff machine tells me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well, it is incorrect then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 its strange. It seems to hinge on the Bears winning tonight. Some sort of strength of schedule deal. Then it again hinges on the Week 17 Cowboys Redskins game (in terms of the "battle" with the Ravens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yeah, but we won't get to SOS vs the ravens as they will have us beat in common games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 No it would not. We lose all tie-breakers to AFC North. The Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens would still be ahead of us. The 49ers loss yesterday was bad for us. Motivation for them going into their Chargers game is now nil. We need the Chiefs to lose this week at Steelers and then probably beat the Chargers at home the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I have a question about common opponents. Would the NFL throw out games where one team played a common twice and the other played them once? Like, say, Baltimore and Cleveland, as well as the Bills and Miami? I would think that would be more fair if those games didnt count. There wouldnt be nearly as many common opponent games but it would seem more fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Johnson Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The best chance is clearly Cincinnati losing two games. They are going to be underdogs for back to back weeks. I also expect SD/KC to "take care of business" by losing at least one. They will also be dogs next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 (edited) I have a question about common opponents. Would the NFL throw out games where one team played a common twice and the other played them once? Like, say, Baltimore and Cleveland, as well as the Bills and Miami? I would think that would be more fair if those games didnt count. There wouldnt be nearly as many common opponent games but it would seem more fair. The all get counted. This is what is says in "The Other Tie-Breaking Procedures" "In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games." The unequal number of games is the effect of the division opponents. Edited December 15, 2014 by Mark80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offsides#76FredSmerlas Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The all get counted. This is what is says in "The Other Tie-Breaking Procedures" "In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games." The unequal number of games is the effect of the division opponents. Mark80 it sounds like you know what you are talking about. I was a little more excited last night because I read in a few places that if Buffalo and Baltimore tied Buffalo wins the tie breaker but it sounds to me after reading what you wrote that this is not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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