PolishDave Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 (edited) You mean the Baltimore game in which the Bills rushed for 200+ yards and EJ threw a 40+ yard TD to Woods? That Baltimore game? Yes that Baltimore game. I believe the defense created something like 5 turnovers in that game. Without that massive lopsided turnover situation, the Bills easily lose that game in my opinion. Great pass rushes cause turnovers which is the thing I think a lot of fans overlook when comparing sacks vs. stopping the run. Edited September 3, 2014 by PolishDave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Yes that Baltimore game. I believe the defense created something like 5 turnovers in that game. Without that massive lopsided turnover situation, the Bills easily lose that game in my opinion. Great pass rushes cause turnovers which is the thing I think a lot of fans overlook when comparing sacks vs. stopping the run. The sacks created lots of 3rd and long situations ... which were then converted. That gets overlooked, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dog Named Kelso Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 (edited) Our D will keep us in the first half. Second half they'll get worn out from all the three and outs on offense. Same as what happened often last year. This is the story of Jauron's tenure here. If he had a half way competent offense he probably would have been at least 10-6 every year. I really hope we see that again Edited September 3, 2014 by A Dog Named Kelso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Seems like most of you are looking past our D. I think the D will keep us in each game. EJ will only have to make a few plays for us to win. In my opinion It is interesting that there's been so little talk about our D. But with Kiko out and Byrd gone, will it be good enough to win low scoring games? With Crossman running ST, I'm not expecting a lot there. And both Hackett and EJ are unproven youngsters. I worry about 2 of the 3 units. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 The sacks created lots of 3rd and long situations ... which were then converted. That gets overlooked, too. I beg to differ. The Ravens only converted 3 third downs the entire game. 3/16 or 18% of 3rd downs. I guess they didn't convert a lot of those 3rd and longs that you remember. Flacco was sacked 4 times and threw 5 picks. Neither one of the Bill's leading backs had 100 yard game. Jackson = 87yds Spiller = 77yds Ej was 10/22 for 167 with 1 lost fumble and 2 picks That game was won by the defense by far. It's not even close. And to top it off, the defense got a their last interception on what could have been the game winning drive for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 How many of those points were either scored by the Defense or came as a result of a turnover? I'm not !@#$ing Rainman. My point was simply to share my opinion that the defense was just as culpable for the losing season last year as the offense; if not more. What a shock that the thing you're not willing to remember or look up makes your opinion look silly. This is pretty much the exact reason DVOA was created and is useful. 4 of the 5 total TD's in the 1st NE game were either fumble returns, or set up by turnovers on the other team's side of the field. The 1st Jet game ints gave us a short field which led to 11 points. The KC game we all know about. Pittsburgh was a shutout without a takeaway on the 1st possession and the trashiest garbage TD in NFL history. I'm a little worried about the defense in all honesty. I keep looking for rational thoughts why the pass defense will be as good as they were last year in terms of sacks and turnovers caused. I just can't get there. The personnel is good, but I don't know about the scheme. I keep remembering how bad the Bills defense sucked when we had Wanny and how much Pettine turned it around. I fear that we are going to really miss having Pettine on the staff. If the Bills don't get good pressure on Chicago, then I don't think they have a shot at winning. And my intuition tells me that Schwartz is nowhere near as aggressive as Pettine. I like aggressive defenses that attack. We had that last year. I don't expect we will have that this year. I have a strange suspicion that we will be better versus the run, maybe much better, but also worse versus the pass. Yes, good points. I do think the D will be a lot closer to last year than the 2012 disaster. Because the secondary probably won't be as injured as last year, and Kiko imo was a bit overrated. And who knows, maybe Wanny really was just that incompetent (actually this is safe to say already, but to what extent Pettine is a genius remains to be seen). But it is still reasonable to expect a drop-off from setting a franchise sack record and being a top 5 unit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Yes, good points. I do think the D will be a lot closer to last year than the 2012 disaster. Because the secondary probably won't be as injured as last year, and Kiko imo was a bit overrated. And who knows, maybe Wanny really was just that incompetent (actually this is safe to say already, but to what extent Pettine is a genius remains to be seen). But it is still reasonable to expect a drop-off from setting a franchise sack record and being a top 5 unit. Last year's Bills D was not a top 5 unit -- they ranked 10th in yards and 20th in points. They were #2 in sacks and tied with about 5-6 other teams at #8 in forced turnovers. Lots of room for improvement outside of the sack totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I was going by DVOA which is a superior metric imo. The offense running the fastest pace in football and creating more possessions skews those stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I was going by DVOA which is a superior metric imo. The offense running the fastest pace in football and creating more possessions skews those stats. You can get all the cute, spun stats you want. The D blew leads last year. If you want to "penalize" the O for scoring off of turnovers, have fun. It doesn't take away the fact that the D could not stop the run when it needed to, could not stop teams from converting on 3rd down and could not keep the other team from scoring more points: which, when your offense scores 20+ points, becomes the defense's problem in a loss. I beg to differ. The Ravens only converted 3 third downs the entire game. 3/16 or 18% of 3rd downs. I guess they didn't convert a lot of those 3rd and longs that you remember. Flacco was sacked 4 times and threw 5 picks. Neither one of the Bill's leading backs had 100 yard game. Jackson = 87yds Spiller = 77yds Ej was 10/22 for 167 with 1 lost fumble and 2 picks That game was won by the defense by far. It's not even close. And to top it off, the defense got a their last interception on what could have been the game winning drive for Baltimore. We are talking about 16 games; not one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 You can get all the cute, spun stats you want. The D blew leads last year. If you want to "penalize" the O for scoring off of turnovers, have fun. It doesn't take away the fact that the D could not stop the run when it needed to, could not stop teams from converting on 3rd down and could not keep the other team from scoring more points: which, when your offense scores 20+ points, becomes the defense's problem in a loss. OK Captain Caveman. "Have your meaningful OBP% and Slugging. I'll stick with the antiquated Batting Average and RBI's!". Thanks Rueben Amaro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 OK Captain Caveman. "Have your meaningful OBP% and Slugging. I'll stick with the antiquated Batting Average and RBI's!". Thanks Rueben Amaro. Well that took an unnecessarily immature turn. Are you Tim Graham, or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Seems like most of you are looking past our D. I think the D will keep us in each game. EJ will only have to make a few plays for us to win. In my opinion I need to have this D show me that they can stop the Run. They haven't done in the past. It all starts up front in their ability to stop the run and put the ball in the air. While we put a lot of heat on the QB last year, we still sucked against the run. If Spikes can fix that part and give us another 50 yards advantage in the run game, the games will be different. Last year's Bills D was not a top 5 unit -- they ranked 10th in yards and 20th in points. They were #2 in sacks and tied with about 5-6 other teams at #8 in forced turnovers. Lots of room for improvement outside of the sack totals. They were 28th against the Run...Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 2013 Defense: 10th YPG 13th Scoring D 4th DVOA (Football Outsiders) 2013 Offense: 19th YPG 22nd Scoring O 25th DVOA (Football Outsiders) I think it's pretty clear which side of the game limited us last year. Good post. Based on those stats, the defense wasn't perfect, but was certainly above average. Unlike the offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Seems like most of you are looking past our D. I think the D will keep us in each game. EJ will only have to make a few plays for us to win. In my opinion You had to bring EJ into this. Looks like the run D is better but now we have to see if the pass D will be on par with last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agent 91 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 (edited) 2013 Defense: 10th YPG 13th Scoring D 4th DVOA (Football Outsiders) 2013 Offense: 19th YPG 22nd Scoring O 25th DVOA (Football Outsiders) I think it's pretty clear which side of the game limited us last year. I think Gugny has a valid point. We got killed on 3rd down all the time. Stats indicate that the offense held us back. But you have to go back and look. Did we score points? How much are the offensive numbers skewed because of the hurry up offense. The eye test gave me the impression that we would have won more games had the defense come up when it mattered. Against the run. And also 3rd down. If this defense can stop the pass as they have not shown they can yet. With the same offensive output as last year at minimum. You should see a better team on the field game days. We will be talking about the D after Cutler burns the secondary for 300 yards on Sunday. McKelvin looked terrible in his limited action and he's not going to get much help from Searcy unfortunately. Gilmore is healthy so what's going to be his excuse this year? Aaron Williams plays hard and looks good, we just can't expect him to be Jairus Byrd though. Spikes is going to help us stuff the run but god help us if they decide to pass (which NFL offenses tend to do the majority of the time). He couldn't cover a receiver in a phone booth if his life depended on it. It all adds up to Cutler having a big day and us complaining about the D on monday Really you question Gilmore? Lol he is always hurt when he gets burned. Just you wait. If Marshall takes his lunch money Sunday, he will be hobbled at some point in the game Edited September 4, 2014 by Agent 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peace Frog Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 This is the story of Jauron's tenure here. If he had a half way competent offense he probably would have been at least 10-6 every year. I really hope we see that again Hey, it's hard to win in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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