Did the Bills pay too much to move up for Watkins?

[basskik11]

Prisco gave the move a C-.

 

Hilarious. He might as well just give it an A or an F. Sammy has never played an NFL down and we have no idea who would be on the board next year in the first and 4th round when it was our turn to pick.

 

Instant draft grades are a joke.

 

Good point!

 

Go bills

[RCOHEN13]

Many draft pundits claim that this trade was poorly done by the Bills and that they gave up too much to move up. The actual difference in points between #9 and #4 is {1800-1350) = 450 points. The Bills swapped the first round picks and in addition gave up the 2015 first and fourth round picks. How should we evaluate the cost for next year’s picks.? The usual assumption is that the Bills would finish the 2015 season with the same draft position, so using that criteria and the “standard assessment” of discounting next year’s picks by 50% of their value, then the Bills spend 717 points in order to move up 450 points. A bad deal. The view of Whaley is that the Bills will have a much better record next year, so the deal is not so bad.

 

Here is the cost of next year’s 1^st and 4^th round picks [@ 50% discount] compared to possible draft slots that the Bills might attain next year.

 

 

 

2015 Finish

......……value of 1st & 4th

.......................…..overpayment

.......................................................overpayment in terms of a draft pick

 

=============================================

 

9…….....717…..…....267…………….top 3^rd round pick

10……....691…..…....241

11……...655….....….215

12……...639….....…189………………middle 3^rd round pick

13……...613……....163

14.……..587….....…137

15……...561…….....111……………..top 4^th round pick

16…..….535……......85

17…..…509…….......59……………..~ middle 4^th round pick

18..…….483……......33……………….middle 5^th round pick

19……...470….....….20………………middle 5^th round pick

20……...456…....……6……………….lower 7^th round pick

21……...430…..…..-20

22…...…419……....-31

23……...408……...-42

24……..397……....-53

25……..386…....…-64

26……..375…...….-75

27….….365…….....-86

28……..354……....-96

29……..344.…….-107

30……..333..……-117

31……..323…..…-128

32……..317…….-133

 

So for the Bills to break even on the draft value chart, they would have to get to the #20^th best record (Cardinals) with about a 10-4 record- win 6 more games. If they go 8-8 and match Pittsburg #15 spot, then the overpayment is a pick at the top of the 4^th round.

 

These are not gamebreakers- if the Bills improve their record. Another question is whether it was a good idea to give up a chance to draft an extra player in the first and third round next year. I don't think so.

 

Watkins was by far the best WR in this and probably past FEW drafts to have the ability to be a true #1 WR. With selection on Robert Woods who played alongside Lee at USC, is a GREAT #2 for EJ. If we trade SJ13 who would be our slot guy in current situation, when we still have Goodwin, and Graham (whom i hate and reminds me of Featherstone from movie Necessary roughness"). Goodwin is a faster, better and more versatile version of Featherstone i dont think we truly "need" to trade SJ13. If he puts ego aside and looks at potential of him in slot with Woods and the electrifying Sammy Watkins, with Goodwin out there in 4 WR who will be very dangerous in that role. Along with ur running game, this offense will be very dynamic iIF EJ takes steps forward.

 

I just dont see Stevie being happy in this situation even tho it really is what he would excel in. He may view himself as a #1 WR, but in real world, he was a #1 in B-LO by DEFAULT.... On a playoff team, he;s a solid complementary WR as a middle of road #2 or upper tier #3 who sticks in slot. His best asset is the juking moves on slants and middle routes, and as we ALL know, has never shown up to make the big catches and plays in crunch time. (i dont consider the ball he caught vs Carolina a "big" clutch play, cuz ANY High School WR could have caught that lightly, lofted ball while being completely WIDE OPEN... Also, when he made that catch, he made it with his body, cuz he was probably SO terrified to drop it! Top notch WR;s catch the ball with their HANDS... Sammy is SOOOOOOOO good at that and is very physical and has great 2nd gear to turn a missed tackle into a monster gain. He always reaches out to grab ball with his hands and snags it instead of wasting split second for it to come into his body.

 

With Goodwin around, who THIS regime drafted just last year shortly after Woods and Featherstone (who i pray gets cut even if we trade SJ13) cuz he;s just so damn bad! and i think Easley is almost 100% assured of roster spot as WR6 cuz of his terrific special teams play and WR6 rarely sees field as an actual WR.

 

Sammy was WELL WORTH what we gave up. It;s blatant Whaley, and coach Marrone EXPECT to be a playoff team and going to do whatever possible to accomplish that feat. Considering just 2 years ago, Falcons traded up like we did to select Julio Jones at #6 not #4 and gave up their 1st AND 2nd along with the 1st rounder the next yr and we just gave up a 5th instead of that 2nd to go along with next yrs first, i DONT think we overpaid at all. Watkins is a better prospect than Julio Jones who had injury history even in college let alone last yr with Falcons and his monster yr came with a QB in Ryan who is a pro-bowl level QB and not to mention having Roddy White who is a legit #1 WR on other side.

 

This is the deal we have to compare our trade to. And i'd much rather have Watkins coming out of college than Julio out of college. Watkins has been rated higher than pretty much ALL WR's in recent drafts. He is as sure a thing at WR as u can find and to go along with our running game and Woods, Goodwin and co (expecting SJ13 to be traded) and hopefully a TE in round 2 or 3 today like ASJ or Niklas we have emense talent on O.

 

RC

[Lurker]

We could have potentially had two Pro Bowlers with those two first round picks. Instead we have one.

I could have potentially married a super model, but finally stopped holding out for one to ask me out on a date...

[Luxy312]

My comments for what they're worth. The logic is understandable. In the last 14 seasons, the Bills have watched the playoffs from their couches. The new front office leadership recognizes a level of desperation from the fans. With hindsight, Evans would have likely been gone before they would have picked at 9 anyway, leaving them in the lurch to pick a player that can make an impact immediately. The paper cost really isn't troubling to me. Generally, you discount the pick in the next year by a round in the draft for valuation purposes and assume the same draft position. To get to #4 (1,800), the Bills gave up their #9 (1,350) + next years first (valued as a second rounder at 490) and next years 4th (valued as a 5th rounder at 37.5). On paper, they paid 1,877 to get 1,800. That's not a huge premium.

 

Some would struggle with the idea that giving up a 1st rounder is foolish in the event that E.J. fails this year and clearly isn't the QB of the future. On the surface, I agree. However, when I dig a little deeper, I get this logic as well. For the 2015 draft (at least right now anyway), QB prospects aren't very strong. So what does this mean? To me it means if the Bills struggle again next year and are drafting top-10, then they'll have a top-10 pick in the 2nd round that they can use on one of the top QB prospects. If they're drafting in the bottom-10, then mission accomplished this year. Alternatively, they could now turn around THIS year and draft a QB in the 2nd round to give Manuel some real competition. Let's face it that Thad and Jeff are not starting material.

[RCOHEN13]

Aslo, i expect next yr's #1 to be in teens or low 20's cuz WE WILL MAKE PLAYOFFS!!

[Alphadawg7]

Many draft pundits claim that this trade was poorly done by the Bills and that they gave up too much to move up. The actual difference in points between #9 and #4 is {1800-1350) = 450 points. The Bills swapped the first round picks and in addition gave up the 2015 first and fourth round picks. How should we evaluate the cost for next year’s picks.? The usual assumption is that the Bills would finish the 2015 season with the same draft position, so using that criteria and the “standard assessment” of discounting next year’s picks by 50% of their value, then the Bills spend 717 points in order to move up 450 points. A bad deal. The view of Whaley is that the Bills will have a much better record next year, so the deal is not so bad.

 

Here is the cost of next year’s 1^st and 4^th round picks [@ 50% discount] compared to possible draft slots that the Bills might attain next year.

 

 

 

2015 Finish

......……value of 1st & 4th

.......................…..overpayment

.......................................................overpayment in terms of a draft pick

 

=============================================

 

9…….....717…..…....267…………….top 3^rd round pick

10……....691…..…....241

11……...655….....….215

12……...639….....…189………………middle 3^rd round pick

13……...613……....163

14.……..587….....…137

15……...561…….....111……………..top 4^th round pick

16…..….535……......85

17…..…509…….......59……………..~ middle 4^th round pick

18..…….483……......33……………….middle 5^th round pick

19……...470….....….20………………middle 5^th round pick

20……...456…....……6……………….lower 7^th round pick

21……...430…..…..-20

22…...…419……....-31

23……...408……...-42

24……..397……....-53

25……..386…....…-64

26……..375…...….-75

27….….365…….....-86

28……..354……....-96

29……..344.…….-107

30……..333..……-117

31……..323…..…-128

32……..317…….-133

 

So for the Bills to break even on the draft value chart, they would have to get to the #20^th best record (Cardinals) with about a 10-4 record- win 6 more games. If they go 8-8 and match Pittsburg #15 spot, then the overpayment is a pick at the top of the 4^th round.

 

These are not gamebreakers- if the Bills improve their record. Another question is whether it was a good idea to give up a chance to draft an extra player in the first and third round next year. I don't think so.

 

Who are these draft pundits? Every grade I've seen other than Prisco gave the Bills an A and many references what a great deal it was by not giving up any additional picks in this years draft.

 

Also, draft value charts are stupid and I can tell you the only people who care about them are the media and fans. Draft value charts have no factors for the quality of the prospect, the quality of the drafts in question, team needs, team projections, team expectations, risks in moving out of a spot, targeted players, etc.

 

In other words there is a complete lack of common sense and rational thinking, hence why no one really puts too much stock in them outside the fans and media.

 

Bills got a steal by not having to give up any additional picks in this draft which is regarded as one of the best and deepest in years. Truth is, we won six games with a twice injured rookie QB, 3 scrub 3rd string QBs, and a total decimation of injuries to every starter at every skill position on both sides of the ball. We are closer than people think to being a good football team. And we damn near won about 6 other games despite all that.

 

Great move Bills! Whaley and co have been impressive if you ask me

[DOGNESS]

Got the best receiver in the draft and a dynamic playmaker that defensive coordinators will have to gameplan for. Great move. Absolutely worth the risk. Plus the fact we kept our second rounder this year in a deep draft is a bonus. Picking tenth every year has gotten us nowhere.

Edited May 9, 2014 by DOGNESS

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

You may be right that Sammy will be a star.

 

But you don't think there were any future Pro Bowlers - or maybe future Hall of Famers - still left at #9?

 

We could have potentially had two Pro Bowlers with those two first round picks. Instead we have one.

 

Watkins needs to become very special for this trade to make sense.

I have said on here that piling early I want a high floor and high ceiling guy. Watkins floor to me is Stevie Johnson's career. At 9 you could have found a pro bowler or a guy that busts. Watkins ceiling & floor are as high as anyone in this draft (and any recent draft for that matter).

[thr_wedge]

Aslo, i expect next yr's #1 to be in teens or low 20's cuz WE WILL MAKE PLAYOFFS!!

 

We gave up next years #32, no big deal

[Alphadawg7]

 

 

You may be right that Sammy will be a star.

 

But you don't think there were any future Pro Bowlers - or maybe future Hall of Famers - still left at #9?

 

We could have potentially had two Pro Bowlers with those two first round picks. Instead we have one.

 

Watkins needs to become very special for this trade to make sense.

 

Sammy Watkins has HOF potential, not just pro bowl potential. More than 50% of first round picks are considered total busts. So if you do the math, odds are more that out #9 pick and our first rounder next year would have more likely combined into one good player. Instead we have an ELITE prospect and some say the best player in one of the most talented drafts in years who is a rare prospect with immense potential to be special and much better than just a good player.

 

Your logic about maybe we could have gotten 2 pro bowlers is flawed IMO. Also, the few pro bowlers this team has had in last 5-10 years have almost all come out rounds lower than the first round. So we can still get pro bowlers in this draft (many of the 2nd rounders in this draft would be first rounders if they were in next years draft because it's so deep) and in next years or in FA...what we can't get is a special talent and Elite prospect like Watkins.

 

Great move by Bills and a good price considering we saved this years picks.

Edited May 9, 2014 by Alphadawg7

[Bronc24]

Got the best receiver in the draft and a dynamic playmaker that defensive coordinators will have to gameplan for. Great move. Absolutely worth the risk. Plus the fact we kept our second rounder this year in a deep draft is a bonus. Picking tenth every year has gotten us nowhere.

 

Agree 100%. This wasn't panicking to get Losman or McCargo in round 1. This was getting the best offensive player in a very talented draft. A player who, by the way, LOVES THE BILLS!

[RCOHEN13]

I would have taken Lewan Taylor at 9 , we have too many WR's without Watkins.

 

We have enough WR's??? Just cuz we are all Bills fan and see "upside" of our boys, doesnt mean they are legit NFL starters. Woods is gonna be a great #2 as he was at USC next to Lee. Stevie is either GONE or getting moved to slot full-time. Even tho Stevie was our #1 WR, doesnt mean he IS a #1 WR. He;s a number 1 by default with having Woods as rookie 2nd rounder and not projected to be a #1 WR. He's more suited to become a really solid #2. If u consider Goodwin (who is not an every down WR, hes a better version of Roscoe). TJ Featherstone Graham who shouldnt even play Arena league Football, Mike Williams who is very talented but is a messed up young man who is a 1 stupid move of long suspension which is why he only cost us a 6th. Hogan and Easley are only suited to play ST and Hogan probably wont even make team and Easley should have his cemented his roster spot with excellent ST play last yr.

 

Having "alot" of WR doesnt matter if none are game changers. Watkins is. This kid is beyond explosive and will be a superstar. Like someone else mentioned, i'd rather have given up last yr's 1st and kept this yr;s 2nd cuz this a very deep draft and hopefully we address OL and TE in 2nd and 3rd. Would love to see ASJ or Niklas or Amaro in round 2 or if we love Tackle in round 2 a kid like Morgan Moses from Virginia and hopefully 1 of those 3 TE's slip to us in 3rd.

 

This regime wants playoff drought to end ASAP and getting a top notch WR like Watkins gives us a guy D's have to fear. He;s not a project like Coradelle Patterson or has limitations to his game like Tavon Austin. He's very physical, catches with his HANDS not body and is great at 50/50 balls and has speed and agility to turn a bubble screen or quick slant into a TD if he makes first guy miss. He is gonna be the BEST WR in team history. That;s bold statement considering we had Andre Reed and even Eric Moulds but Sammy is a more complete WR than both and if he reaches just 80% of his potential, he will own EVERY Bills receiving record out there (except longest TD which Fitz threw a 99 yarder to TO that 1 yr we had TO).

[Green Lightning]

We paid too much if SW isn't Julio Jones minimally.

[BuckeyeBill]

Oakland would have taken Watkins at 5 and Tampa Bay would have taken Evans at 7, like they did.

 

I think that Watkins is a low first rounder in 2015 better than the third receiver on their board.

[Bronc24]

We have enough WR's??? Just cuz we are all Bills fan and see "upside" of our boys, doesnt mean they are legit NFL starters. Woods is gonna be a great #2 as he was at USC next to Lee. Stevie is either GONE or getting moved to slot full-time. Even tho Stevie was our #1 WR, doesnt mean he IS a #1 WR. He;s a number 1 by default with having Woods as rookie 2nd rounder and not projected to be a #1 WR. He's more suited to become a really solid #2. If u consider Goodwin (who is not an every down WR, hes a better version of Roscoe). TJ Featherstone Graham who shouldnt even play Arena league Football, Mike Williams who is very talented but is a messed up young man who is a 1 stupid move of long suspension which is why he only cost us a 6th. Hogan and Easley are only suited to play ST and Hogan probably wont even make team and Easley should have his cemented his roster spot with excellent ST play last yr.

 

Having "alot" of WR doesnt matter if none are game changers. Watkins is. This kid is beyond explosive and will be a superstar. Like someone else mentioned, i'd rather have given up last yr's 1st and kept this yr;s 2nd cuz this a very deep draft and hopefully we address OL and TE in 2nd and 3rd. Would love to see ASJ or Niklas or Amaro in round 2 or if we love Tackle in round 2 a kid like Morgan Moses from Virginia and hopefully 1 of those 3 TE's slip to us in 3rd.

 

This regime wants playoff drought to end ASAP and getting a top notch WR like Watkins gives us a guy D's have to fear. He;s not a project like Coradelle Patterson or has limitations to his game like Tavon Austin. He's very physical, catches with his HANDS not body and is great at 50/50 balls and has speed and agility to turn a bubble screen or quick slant into a TD if he makes first guy miss. He is gonna be the BEST WR in team history. That;s bold statement considering we had Andre Reed and even Eric Moulds but Sammy is a more complete WR than both and if he reaches just 80% of his potential, he will own EVERY Bills receiving record out there (except longest TD which Fitz threw a 99 yarder to TO that 1 yr we had TO).

 

Can't argue with any of this. Time to move on from the Graham mistake. I LOVE this move.

[zow2]

The Bills have missed the playoffs for 14 years by NOT doing anything bold. So I applaud the bold move to get Watkins. In the NOW, it can only help them. They have a year to jockey and move some people to get additional picks in 2015 but Sammy Watkins is by all accounts a fantastic WR and will be very productive in the NFL. He was going to be picked in the #4 slot by someone so Buffalo had 10 minutes to make this move. As some of you mentioned, alot comes down to EJ Manuel and if he can develop into an above avg. QB. If he does and can get his WR's the ball, this is a no brainer move by the Bills that will pay off big time.

[TXBILLSFAN]

 

The Bills have missed the playoffs for 14 years by NOT doing anything bold. So I applaud the bold move to get Watkins. In the NOW, it can only help them. They have a year to jockey and move some people to get additional picks in 2015 but Sammy Watkins is by all accounts a fantastic WR and will be very productive in the NFL. He was going to be picked in the #4 slot by someone so Buffalo had 10 minutes to make this move. As some of you mentioned, alot comes down to EJ Manuel and if he can develop into an above avg. QB. If he does and can get his WR's the ball, this is a no brainer move by the Bills that will pay off big time.

 

 

 

The Bills have missed the playoffs for 14 years by NOT doing anything bold. So I applaud the bold move to get Watkins. In the NOW, it can only help them. They have a year to jockey and move some people to get additional picks in 2015 but Sammy Watkins is by all accounts a fantastic WR and will be very productive in the NFL. He was going to be picked in the #4 slot by someone so Buffalo had 10 minutes to make this move. As some of you mentioned, alot comes down to EJ Manuel and if he can develop into an above avg. QB. If he does and can get his WR's the ball, this is a no brainer move by the Bills that will pay off big time.

 

Not making the playoffs for 14 years had NOTHING to do with not doing anything BOLD it has everything to do with making bad choices and bad decisions. There is such a thing as a BAD BOLD decision, that's called being reckless. Love the player, hate the trade. If EJ showed he was a franchise QB and we didn't have glaring needs at RT, TE and need for upgrades at DE and LB, and Watkins was that player to put us over the top -- I'm all in. I just think this team is more than one player away and that EJ is still, at best a longshot to be a true franchise QB. High risk move that looks more like reckless than it does BOLD. Edited May 9, 2014 by TXBILLSFAN

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

Not making the playoffs for 14 years had NOTHING to do with not doing anything BOLD it has everything to do with making bad choices and bad decisions. There is such a thing as a BAD BOLD decision, that's called being reckless. Love the player, hate the trade. If EJ showed he was a franchise QB and we didn't have glaring needs at RT, TE and need for upgrades at DE and LB, and Watkins was that player to put us over the top -- I'm all in. I just think this team is more than one player away and that EJ is still, at best a longshot to be that guy. High risk move that looks more like reckless than it does BOLD.

 

Is the 2014 draft over? They can address roster concerns with good selections with #41 and #73. I think it's great that they didn't sacrifice any of their other 2014 picks. 2015 will take care of itself. Full speed ahead!

[Thunderstealer]

If Bills aren't playoff bound, the new owner will clear cut the whole forest. Scorched Earth might be a little dramatic, but we'll certainly be talking about our (yet again) new GM and head coach.

[TXBILLSFAN]

Is the 2014 draft over? They can address roster concerns with good selections with #41 and #73. I think it's great that they didn't sacrifice any of their other 2014 picks. 2015 will take care of itself. Full speed ahead!

I sure hope they can, but let's stop saying that this team needed to make a BOLD move to win and that's why they haven't won, it's simply not close to being the truth. You win by making good decisions and selecting and signing good players.