If We Pass on Ebron .... We Will Regret it

[Luxy312]

I'm not a big fan of Ebron at #9, but Tight Ends are basically big WR's now. Impact is much greater now than ever before. Look at the numbers some of these guys have put up in the last 3-4 years. Gronkowski and Graham would be top 10 picks today, probably top 5, if they came out of college as clean prospects.

 

You're missing the point entirely. They would come out of college as top 10 picks KNOWING what you do about how they performed as pros. We have no such hindsight on Ebron and whether or not he'll have that value. We do know that he doesn't have their size, their hands, OR their blocking abilities. Those are pretty important things when you start throwing around Gronk and Graham as examples. For the record, if they're basically "big WR's" as you put it, then the pick is Evans. He's faster, 2 inches taller, has longer arms, catches the ball better and has another 5 inches on his vertical leap. I.e. if Ebron were a WR, we would be talking about him as a 3rd or 4th round pick....

[OldTimer1960]

Some people are finally getting the Ebron value right. No at nine. Same goes for Mosely. Did you watch his bowl game. Horrible. These two are not worth the ninth pick. Oh yeah Ebron has a lot of drops also.

 

I am not a big Ebron fan, either. I am a little bit more positive on Mosley though. If we assume that Mack,Clowney, Robinson, Mathews, Watkins and Evans are all gone, what should the Bills do (other than the magic trade down)?

 

They *could* take:

 

Barr - I am not sold on him being that great - think I'd prefer Mosley.

 

Lewan - at least based on what I've seen, he doesn't sound like the powerful run blocking RT I would be looking for - I've seen him described as a "finesse" LT. I wouldn't be disappointed if they took Lewan as he still has what look to be great skill and a pair of good OTs is very valuable

 

Another WR - still like Marquise Lee and some are saying that Odell Beckham is worth a top 10 pick. I am not a big fan of Kelvin Benjamin anywhere in round 1 (would consider him in 2nd though)

 

Mosley - Many think he'd be a great fit with Alonzo

 

I just can't see them taking a QB in round 1 and I don't think an OG will go there.

I don't think there is a DE after Clowney worth taking that high.

I would be very surprised with a CB or S. I know they lost Byrd, but I don't think they'll take another in round 1.

 

If the draft unfolds this way, the Bills will be in a tough spot. Given those options and what I've read, I'd take Mosley or WR Lee or Beckham (and feel like I just missed out on the very top tier of players)

 

 

 

 

You're missing the point entirely. They would come out of college as top 10 picks KNOWING what you do about how they performed as pros. We have no such hindsight on Ebron and whether or not he'll have that value. We do know that he doesn't have their size, their hands, OR their blocking abilities. Those are pretty important things when you start throwing around Gronk and Graham as examples. For the record, if they're basically "big WR's" as you put it, then the pick is Evans. He's faster, 2 inches taller, has longer arms, catches the ball better and has another 5 inches on his vertical leap. I.e. if Ebron were a WR, we would be talking about him as a 3rd or 4th round pick....

 

I agree, but can't see Evans getting past Tampa Bay with pick 7. If he does - and nobody trades into the Viking's spot to nab him, then he looks to be the best option to me.

[billykaykay]

I'm becoming more and more at peace with the idea of a franchise tackle at #9. If a kid is truly good enough, then why not?

Plus, for a team with needs, and an inexperieced coaching staff, this draft could become a total cluster#$%.

 

-Take the tackle. Then go get your "big threat" receiver. If the staff does their research, it'll be hard to f#@ that combo up.

 

TE can wait. A few solid TE's will be available in later rounds to UDFA.

 

Too high bust potential for Eric Ebron to be taken with our #1 pick.

The Bills should be looking for basketball players who have HS football experience. There are a lot of very good athletes that go around 6'4/250. They can be had as free agents or 7th rounders.

[1billsfan]

Let's just talk top-10 picks that are TE's for a second. The first presumption is that if you're picked that high that there's hype about you as a player. Out of the 17 top-10 TE picks since 1960, there's only one in the HOF and that's Mike Ditka. There's only 2 currently still playing in the NFL in Vernon Davis and Kellen Winslow and neither of those guys will ever be HOF worthy. They're just not good enough. Now look at other recent top-10 guys (last 20 years or so) and you're looking at Kyle Brady, Ricky Dudley, and Junior Miller. Gronkowski and Graham were 2nd and 3rd round picks. So for me, it comes down to this. Would I rather have Ebron in the first with the chance that he's a Ricky Dudley or Junior Miller or would I want Troy Niklas or someone similar in round 2-3 with the chance that they're a Gronk or Graham? Honestly, that's a really really easy decision for me.

 

 

How many running backs are taken in the first round anymore? None.

 

The game has changed. The number one priority for a modern NFL offense after having a good to great QB, is to have a receiving match up advantage for that QB to consistently throw the ball to. I think that Eric Ebron's going to be the 2nd best TE after Graham. It may take him 2 or 3 years, but he'll get there IMO.

 

Would it be great to have a solid RT starter like Matthews? Sure it would, but not at the expense of passing on Ebron. Matthews will be a solid pro no doubt, but he's not going to be an all time great OT because he's only going to get marginally better than the player he already is now. He's about as coached up as you can get. So if that's the case, why is Robinson going before him? Matthews may have great bloodlines, but he's not amazing enough to pass the raw guy Robinson? People talk about the hype of Ebron, I think Matthews is hyped up to be believed better than he is simply because of his last name. I won't be mad if they take Matthews, but I will think they made a mistake if Ebron's still on the board.

[thebandit27]

 

 

 

How many running backs are taken in the first round anymore? None.

 

The game has changed. The number one priority for a modern NFL offense after having a good to great QB, is to have a receiving match up advantage for that QB to consistently throw the ball to. I think that Eric Ebron's going to be the 2nd best TE after Graham. It may take him 2 or 3 years, but he'll get there IMO.

 

Would it be great to have a solid RT starter like Matthews? Sure it would, but not at the expense of passing on Ebron. Matthews will be a solid pro no doubt, but he's not going to be an all time great OT because he's only going to get marginally better than the player he already is now. He's about as coached up as you can get. So if that's the case, why is Robinson going before him? Matthews may have great bloodlines, but he's not amazing enough to pass the raw guy Robinson? People talk about the hype of Ebron, I think Matthews is hyped up to be believed better than he is simply because of his last name. I won't be mad if they take Matthews, but I will think they made a mistake if Ebron's still on the board.

 

There's little doubt in my mind that Matthews will be a better OT than Ebron will be a TE

[BuffaloRebound]

You're missing the point entirely. They would come out of college as top 10 picks KNOWING what you do about how they performed as pros. We have no such hindsight on Ebron and whether or not he'll have that value. We do know that he doesn't have their size, their hands, OR their blocking abilities. Those are pretty important things when you start throwing around Gronk and Graham as examples. For the record, if they're basically "big WR's" as you put it, then the pick is Evans. He's faster, 2 inches taller, has longer arms, catches the ball better and has another 5 inches on his vertical leap. I.e. if Ebron were a WR, we would be talking about him as a 3rd or 4th round pick....

 

I'd probably prefer Evans also, but their physical traits are pretty close. If you go by combine measurements, Evans is 3/8th's of an inch taller, 0.07 seconds faster in the 40, arms are 1 and 7/8th's inches longer, and vertical is 5 inches higher. Ebron has 19 pounds on him and is significantly stronger (24 reps vs. 12). Depends on what you're looking for. Ebron better across the middle and on screens. Can use him as a fullback too. Evans better in jump ball situations and on the outside.

Some people here are selling Ebron short. He is a very good prospect. Not sure about him at #9, but if we could trade back I'd be happy with him in the middle of the first round.

[Luxy312]

I am not a big Ebron fan, either. I am a little bit more positive on Mosley though. If we assume that Mack,Clowney, Robinson, Mathews, Watkins and Evans are all gone, what should the Bills do (other than the magic trade down)?

 

They *could* take:

 

Barr - I am not sold on him being that great - think I'd prefer Mosley.

 

Lewan - at least based on what I've seen, he doesn't sound like the powerful run blocking RT I would be looking for - I've seen him described as a "finesse" LT. I wouldn't be disappointed if they took Lewan as he still has what look to be great skill and a pair of good OTs is very valuable

 

Another WR - still like Marquise Lee and some are saying that Odell Beckham is worth a top 10 pick. I am not a big fan of Kelvin Benjamin anywhere in round 1 (would consider him in 2nd though)

 

Mosley - Many think he'd be a great fit with Alonzo

 

I just can't see them taking a QB in round 1 and I don't think an OG will go there.

I don't think there is a DE after Clowney worth taking that high.

I would be very surprised with a CB or S. I know they lost Byrd, but I don't think they'll take another in round 1.

 

If the draft unfolds this way, the Bills will be in a tough spot. Given those options and what I've read, I'd take Mosley or WR Lee or Beckham (and feel like I just missed out on the very top tier of players)

 

 

 

 

I agree, but can't see Evans getting past Tampa Bay with pick 7. If he does - and nobody trades into the Viking's spot to nab him, then he looks to be the best option to me.

 

You really have to start adding up your picks though to assume that Evans is gone. That is really my point. Pick any 2 QB's to be gone. Most have 3 before Buffalo, but let's just take 2 for argument sake. Clowney, Mack, Robinson, Watkins. That's 4 more and gets you to 6. I don't know anyone that has any of those 4 still available for Buffalo. If it is just 6, then is it Evans and Matthews at that point? I guess I don't oversimplify it really. My decision tree looks a bit like this:

 

1 - Bortles/Manziel or Clowney to Houston. Obviously here, it's whomever is their #1 "guy". Needed QB or next Mario?

2 - If QB is chosen #1, Clowney or Robinson fall to this spot. I think Robinson is more likely, but we'll see how St. Louis responds.

3 - It's possible at this point that Clowney still hasn't been chosen, but he won't fall beyond here beyond a JAC QB pick. That could happen as well. Clowney, Robinson, Bortles/Manziel. Regardless for me, 1 QB is gone + Clowney and Robinson.

4 - Cleveland's pick is ugly. QB #2 or Mack/Watkins? That's most likely, but I'm also guessing if by some strange miracle that there's no chosen QB by now, that they pull the trigger.

5 - The Raiders plucked Matt Schaub, so QB is off the table. Watkins probably their #1 guy followed again by any of those above.

6 - Atlanta doesn't have QB on the radar. Robinson can't be here, right. Mack or Matthews?

7 - Tampa Bay could pick Evans here. I would assume though that Watkins has to be gone and to Cleveland at #4 or the Raiders #5.

8 - Minnesota is a mess. If they don't pick a QB, it only means to me that at least 2 if not 3, are gone already. How can they otherwise justify drafting defense or some other position that they don't need?

 

The guys I have gone are Clowney, Mack, Watkins, Manziel, Robinson, and Matthews. With only 2 more gone, I just can't see Evans. Just me maybe.

[simpleman]

If you are just really looking for a big, strong WR, and calling him a TE, then Ebron might be your pick. Not sure I would want him with a #9, but in a trade down mid round #1 situation he might be OK.

I would rather get a big TE who can catch in traffic and block for CJ and Fred (and his future replacement). I would much prefer a TE who also is a serious blocker like Niklas or ASJ in the 2^nd , or even CJ Fiedorowicz in the 3^rd or 4^th , and spend my first on OT. Our real need position is OL. Late 1^st and 2^nd round still gives you top quality OL talent. There is a major drop after that.

[Chandler#81]

To date, I was not for a TE @ 9. I suppose it's because we don't know what a great TE on the Bills could do. When Pete Metzalaars is your Best Ever, ( with special consideration for Ernie Warlick) - we have absolutely nothing to compare one to except from other teams.

 

I've changed my mind. If the pick isn't going to be a QB, then, by all means Ebron!

[Kellyto83TD]

Not only is he considered to be clearly the best TE in this draft..

 

He is considered as one of the best we athletes in this draft.

 

He is a match up nightmare the perfect advantage a 2nd year QB needs....

 

Ebron even give the Bills the flexibility to play two TE sets....

 

I continue to watch videos on him, and he has weaknesses but they can be coached up but his physical gifts and natural abilities CAN NOT...

 

Example his ability to locate the ball in traffic. Elevating at the peak of the catch (he goes an gets it) Body Control ect...

 

If We Pass on him we'll regret it

That's funny I see lots of reports saying he has several weaknesses that may be exposed in the NFL.

[3rdand12]

To date, I was not for a TE @ 9. I suppose it's because we don't know what a great TE on the Bills could do. When Pete Metzalaars is your Best Ever, ( with special consideration for Ernie Warlick) - we have absolutely nothing to compare one to except from other teams.

 

I've changed my mind. If the pick isn't going to be a QB, then, by all means Ebron!

It might turn out to be the best pick we could make. Whether i like it or not if Luxy 312 has anything to say about it. Good post Luxy312 BTW.

Hard to consider for me that 9 could be a sure thing. But if the QBs dont come off the board i might have to settle for Lewan of Ebron . And i jsut dont feel them value picks at nine.

I am preparing to be a little disappointed with the first round pick by the Bills.

Hoping to find a buddy to trade out of nine if Evans or Matthews is gone .

Raiders pleeez take a QB.

[Santana]

I like Ebron a lot, I was sold on Jace Amaro but after watching game tape on him he's not what we are looking for. What I like about Eric Ebron is how he has great body control. He always seems to put his body in a position where he has the advantage. That to me, is just as or if not more important than having top end speed.

[3rdand12]

I like Ebron a lot, I was sold on Jace Amaro but after watching game tape on him he's not what we are looking for. What I like about Eric Ebron is how he has great body control. He always seems to put his body in a position where he has the advantage. That to me, is just as or if not more important than having top end speed.

you are describing a receiver, don't you know ?

Can he play the whole game ? Run block pass block , take the hits over the middle or curls with a safety coming down on him ?

Read defenses. Crap like that .

I think we might have enough receivers at the moment. And i dont want a jimmy graham contract in four or five years either.

But if we get him i will be happy.

if i have to.

Edited April 13, 2014 by 3rdand12

[Luxy312]

I'd probably prefer Evans also, but their physical traits are pretty close. If you go by combine measurements, Evans is 3/8th's of an inch taller, 0.07 seconds faster in the 40, arms are 1 and 7/8th's inches longer, and vertical is 5 inches higher. Ebron has 19 pounds on him and is significantly stronger (24 reps vs. 12). Depends on what you're looking for. Ebron better across the middle and on screens. Can use him as a fullback too. Evans better in jump ball situations and on the outside.

Some people here are selling Ebron short. He is a very good prospect. Not sure about him at #9, but if we could trade back I'd be happy with him in the middle of the first round.

 

Based on what you've written, that's not true. Evans is faster by a long shot. How would Ebron be better across the middle and screens. 40, shuttle, etc., also favor Evans. Failed argument.

[1B4IDie]

I like Ebron a lot, I was sold on Jace Amaro but after watching game tape on him he's not what we are looking for. What I like about Eric Ebron is how he has great body control. He always seems to put his body in a position where he has the advantage. That to me, is just as or if not more important than having top end speed.

Out if curiosity. What didn't you like about Jace Amaro?

 

When I watch Ebron film I just see nothing special. A solid prospect, but nothing that makes me think Top 10 draft pick.

[Luxy312]

It might turn out to be the best pick we could make. Whether i like it or not if Luxy 312 has anything to say about it. Good post Luxy312 BTW.

Hard to consider for me that 9 could be a sure thing. But if the QBs dont come off the board i might have to settle for Lewan of Ebron . And i jsut dont feel them value picks at nine.

I am preparing to be a little disappointed with the first round pick by the Bills.

Hoping to find a buddy to trade out of nine if Evans or Matthews is gone .

Raiders pleeez take a QB.

 

Thanks. I like the idea of someone being there that shouldn't be or a trade down. Either/or satisfies.

[3rdand12]

Thanks. I like the idea of someone being there that shouldn't be or a trade down. Either/or satisfies.

we can hope

[thebandit27]

 

Out if curiosity. What didn't you like about Jace Amaro?

 

When I watch Ebron film I just see nothing special. A solid prospect, but nothing that makes me think Top 10 draft pick.

 

I'm apologizing in advance...

 

It's a pet peeve of mine when people talk about watching "film" of a draft prospect.

 

Unless you guys actually have the coaches' tape, in which case I'm a jerk, what you're watching are video clips.

 

Okay, sorry, I'll move on now.

[BuffaloRebound]

 

 

Based on what you've written, that's not true. Evans is faster by a long shot. How would Ebron be better across the middle and screens. 40, shuttle, etc., also favor Evans. Failed argument.

0.07 seconds faster in the 40 is by a longshot? If you watch them, Ebron is better over the middle and on screens. He catches it, gets up the field quickly, and breaks tackles. Ebron is the more physical player. Also seems like less of a head case. Wouldn't have a problem with Evans at #9 because the guy is super talented, but Ebron is too.

[OldTimer1960]

 

0.07 seconds faster in the 40 is by a longshot? If you watch them, Ebron is better over the middle and on screens. He catches it, gets up the field quickly, and breaks tackles. Ebron is the more physical player. Also seems like less of a head case. Wouldn't have a problem with Evans at #9 because the guy is super talented, but Ebron is too.

 

If the 3 OTs and WRs Watkins & Evans are gone when the Bills pick comes up, I am hoping for the magic trade down. If all of those players are gone, then I could identify the following players that would be roughly equivalent to me:

Mosley LB

Barr LB

Lee WR

Beckham WR

Ebron TE

 

I don't really see a steep drop off after these 5, either, so if the offer were good enough, could move further - all depends what is offered.

 

I do think OT is a considerable need, but if the top 3 are gone, I'm not grooving on the left-overs.

 

WR is still a big need, IMHO, but Lee and Beckham are the best remaining (I think), though Cooks isn't too far behind and there may be good options top of round 2.

 

Not a fan of other TEs in round 1.

 

Could default to a DB if necessary...

Edited April 14, 2014 by OldTimer1960