What the Bills offseason tells us about draft plans

[Luxy312]

During every offseason, we as fans love to speculate on what the front office is thinking going into the draft. Are they fixated on a player or position? Are there particular positions of "need" that would dictate a draft pick, like Gilmore and Dareus did? Alternatively, will they simply pick the best available player on their board regardless of need, ala Spiller? I offer up the following observations based on what the team has done in the offseason thus far:

 

Brandon Spikes - Signed a 1-year deal worth approximately $3.25 million plus performance based incentives. Presumably, he will be the guy in the middle on running downs, such that Kiko can move to his natural position at weak side linebacker. From a draft perspective, I don't have any ILB's ranked even in the top-20 draft prospects, so this would make sense.

 

Keith Rivers - Signed a 2-year deal worth approximately $4 million. With the signing bonus, $2.4 million of that will be paid this year. Schwartz is clearly setting up to run a 4-3 defense this season and Rivers would make sense on the outside opposite Kiko. From the draft, I'm sure the Bills would love to get Khalil Mack, but expecting that he'll fall to them at #9 is a pipe dream. If they have enough love for Anthony Barr, then Rivers could simply represent insurance such that if both are gone, they're still left with a starter.

 

Scott Chandler - Re-signed with the bills to a 2-year deal worth $4.75 million, of which about $2.75 million will be paid this season. Over the last 3 years, Chandler has been the Bills second leading receiver, behind only Stevie Johnson. Without over reading this, I can't see them picking Ebron in the 1st while still having Chandler, Smith, Moaki, Gragg, and also recently signed Caussin at TE. Chandler is the key though given that the rest are very much TBD's.

 

Mike Williams - The Bills traded a pick for him and will pay him just $2.2 million this year and $6.2 million next year. Next years compensation though will only be paid if he's retained. He's a local product and playing here with a chip on his shoulder. I pencil him in as the #2 at this point with Woods, Goodwin, Easley, Graham, and a score of others behind that. The availability of Sammy Watkins in the first is highly unlikely, and this would seem to mean to me that they're not #9 high on Mike Evans.

 

Corey Graham - His deal was 4-years and $16 million with $8.1 million guaranteed. That's a pretty big nut to say the least. Marrone has already said that he'll get a shot at playing Byrd's position. The dollars would seem to indicate to me that it's his job to lose. I don't dislike Searcy or Duke Williams, but think they'll be backups. Gilmore, McKelvin, and A.Williams round out the D-backs, so it would not seem to me that this position is one of importance in the draft.

 

Chris Williams - 4 years and $13.5 million with $5.5 million guaranteed. Like ILB's, there's not a guard worth drafting in the top-20. His pay says he's a starter none the less.

 

Jairus Wynn/Alan Branch - The recent signing of Wynn and the re-signing of Branch (with $3.1m in bonuses) tells me that they're set on the defensive line. They have their starters of course, but have a ton of depth for getting after quarterbacks. I can't imagine that there's a player at #9 at any of the positions that would have any value, and trading up for Clowney just doesn't make sense.

 

There may be other opinions of course, but I think that the Bills have clearly tipped their hands. Recent trades and acquisitions seem to fill multiple positions of need, and the dollars paid to boot suggest that they're not just picking up backups but starters. Erik Pears grades out almost dead last as a RT, but is penciled in as a starter. Hairston can't stay healthy enough to be counted on. It is to me the only clear position of need. Where that leaves me is a clear pick in the draft. Robinson or Matthews and moving Glenn to the right side or more likely Lewan. There is zero doubt in my mind that one of the three will be there when the Bills pick at #9. I could even see them trading down in the first and still getting a guy like Kouandjio and adding more picks later.

[KDIGGZ]

I agree and have been saying this for a long time. All signs point to OT. However, they will always take the "best available" but I think best available will be an O-Lineman.

 

However, Mike Williams was insurance at WR. That won't stop them from drafting one, it's just in case they can't get the one they want. They won't have both Stevie and Williams next year, too big of a cap hit to keep both. So they still need a WR. But by not signing a T in free agency while addressing all other areas points to them feeling good about picking up one in the draft

[ALF]

OL

[Luxy312]

I agree and have been saying this for a long time. All signs point to OT. However, they will always take the "best available" but I think best available will be an O-Lineman.

 

However, Mike Williams was insurance at WR. That won't stop them from drafting one, it's just in case they can't get the one they want. They won't have both Stevie and Williams next year, too big of a cap hit to keep both. So they still need a WR. But by not signing a T in free agency while addressing all other areas points to them feeling good about picking up one in the draft

 

Too big of a cap hit? How do you think that? Stevie gets $5.5 million next year and assuming Williams pans out, he would get $6.2 million. That's $11.7 million in total. By comparison, Calvin Johnson all by his lonesome is $12.5 million for 2015. Larry Fitzgerald is $16.0 million. The list goes on and on. Honestly, if Mike Williams works out and Stevie plays like we know he's capable of, this front office will look genius.

[Bills Fan of St Augustine]

yep - it's looking like OT for sure. I bet a OG in the 3/4th too. We need starters and depth.

[KDIGGZ]

 

 

Too big of a cap hit? How do you think that? Stevie gets $5.5 million next year and assuming Williams pans out, he would get $6.2 million. That's $11.7 million in total. By comparison, Calvin Johnson all by his lonesome is $12.5 million for 2015. Larry Fitzgerald is $16.0 million. The list goes on and on. Honestly, if Mike Williams works out and Stevie plays like we know he's capable of, this front office will look genius.

Not sure where you are getting your numbers but they are wrong. Stevie also gets a $3.5 mil roster bonus so his total cap hit is almost $9 mil next season. Williams has a huge bonus due too. No way they keep both guys, neither of which is a true #1

[Security]

I wouldn't mind them trading Spiller and signing Johnson so the Jets don't.

[Luxy312]

Not sure where you are getting your numbers but they are wrong. Stevie also gets a $3.5 mil roster bonus so his total cap hit is almost $9 mil next season. Williams has a huge bonus due too. No way they keep both guys, neither of which is a true #1

 

Well, I pulled my contract numbers right off Rotoworld. Not sure where your figures come from. 2014 says that his deal is $3.75 million + $1.75 million roster bonus due in March. 2015 says $5.5 million + $250K roster bonus. 2016 says $5.85 million and is the last year of his contract. For Mike Williams, 2014 says $1.2 million + $1.0 million roster bonus. 2015 says $5.2 million + $1.0 million roster bonus. You might be thinking about the prorated portion of original signing bonuses for Stevie that would take his cap number up to closer to the $9.0 million you're referencing. Regardless, if he's a casualty next season, then all of the original signing bonus is accelerated into a cap hit. I.e. they can either pay him next season his $5.5 and take a $9.0 million cap hit or they can let him go and take a $9.0 million cap hit anyway. For Williams, it's exactly as I stated. Tampa is eating the signing bonus for him, not the Bills.

[BillsVet]

I'm still not sure who's playing DE for this team aside from Mario. The guys on the roster aren't every down players (Hughes and Wynn) with nothing behind them. As much as people talk about a weaknesses elsewhere, they've got no starting caliber DE to line up opposite Williams.

[aristocrat]

I mentioned in another thread that we play the lions, broncos, chargers, pats, bears packers who were all in the top ten of passing last year. We could use another solid cb to defend the pass. I wouldnt be surprised to see that being a pick of ours.

[NoSaint]

i think it will tell you pretty much what ever you want it too...

 

 

 

I'm still not sure who's playing DE for this team aside from Mario. The guys on the roster aren't every down players (Hughes and Wynn) with nothing behind them. As much as people talk about a weaknesses elsewhere, they've got no starting caliber DE to line up opposite Williams.

 

and schwartz has consistently gone after pass rushers with premium picks.

[billykaykay]

During every offseason, we as fans love to speculate on what the front office is thinking going into the draft. Are they fixated on a player or position? Are there particular positions of "need" that would dictate a draft pick, like Gilmore and Dareus did? Alternatively, will they simply pick the best available player on their board regardless of need, ala Spiller? I offer up the following observations based on what the team has done in the offseason thus far:

 

Brandon Spikes - Signed a 1-year deal worth approximately $3.25 million plus performance based incentives. Presumably, he will be the guy in the middle on running downs, such that Kiko can move to his natural position at weak side linebacker. From a draft perspective, I don't have any ILB's ranked even in the top-20 draft prospects, so this would make sense.

 

Keith Rivers - Signed a 2-year deal worth approximately $4 million. With the signing bonus, $2.4 million of that will be paid this year. Schwartz is clearly setting up to run a 4-3 defense this season and Rivers would make sense on the outside opposite Kiko. From the draft, I'm sure the Bills would love to get Khalil Mack, but expecting that he'll fall to them at #9 is a pipe dream. If they have enough love for Anthony Barr, then Rivers could simply represent insurance such that if both are gone, they're still left with a starter.

 

Scott Chandler - Re-signed with the bills to a 2-year deal worth $4.75 million, of which about $2.75 million will be paid this season. Over the last 3 years, Chandler has been the Bills second leading receiver, behind only Stevie Johnson. Without over reading this, I can't see them picking Ebron in the 1st while still having Chandler, Smith, Moaki, Gragg, and also recently signed Caussin at TE. Chandler is the key though given that the rest are very much TBD's.

 

Mike Williams - The Bills traded a pick for him and will pay him just $2.2 million this year and $6.2 million next year. Next years compensation though will only be paid if he's retained. He's a local product and playing here with a chip on his shoulder. I pencil him in as the #2 at this point with Woods, Goodwin, Easley, Graham, and a score of others behind that. The availability of Sammy Watkins in the first is highly unlikely, and this would seem to mean to me that they're not #9 high on Mike Evans.

 

Corey Graham - His deal was 4-years and $16 million with $8.1 million guaranteed. That's a pretty big nut to say the least. Marrone has already said that he'll get a shot at playing Byrd's position. The dollars would seem to indicate to me that it's his job to lose. I don't dislike Searcy or Duke Williams, but think they'll be backups. Gilmore, McKelvin, and A.Williams round out the D-backs, so it would not seem to me that this position is one of importance in the draft.

 

Chris Williams - 4 years and $13.5 million with $5.5 million guaranteed. Like ILB's, there's not a guard worth drafting in the top-20. His pay says he's a starter none the less.

 

Jairus Wynn/Alan Branch - The recent signing of Wynn and the re-signing of Branch (with $3.1m in bonuses) tells me that they're set on the defensive line. They have their starters of course, but have a ton of depth for getting after quarterbacks. I can't imagine that there's a player at #9 at any of the positions that would have any value, and trading up for Clowney just doesn't make sense.

 

There may be other opinions of course, but I think that the Bills have clearly tipped their hands. Recent trades and acquisitions seem to fill multiple positions of need, and the dollars paid to boot suggest that they're not just picking up backups but starters. Erik Pears grades out almost dead last as a RT, but is penciled in as a starter. Hairston can't stay healthy enough to be counted on. It is to me the only clear position of need. Where that leaves me is a clear pick in the draft. Robinson or Matthews and moving Glenn to the right side or more likely Lewan. There is zero doubt in my mind that one of the three will be there when the Bills pick at #9. I could even see them trading down in the first and still getting a guy like Kouandjio and adding more picks later.

I see the Bills drafting OL,WR. & TE not necessarily in that order. I think that they would also like to get a RB earlier than the 5th Round. The best way to do all this is by trading down. They can get their RB in the 3rd then. In the 4th they can take a shot at a QB or a PON.

[dubs]

I think it just tells us that they are setting themselves up for flexibility. They don't want to be pressed into reaching for a player at a position of desperate need. They want to feel that they can trade back if they don't like the players when number 9 comes up. So far, I like what they've done.

 

For example, if Robinson, Clowney, Mack, Matthews, Watkins, and Evans are gone by the time the Bills pick, who would they take? Ebron? Would they want to take Lewan even though they think there might be a big drop and have him rated as more of a late round pick? Same with Barr or Mosley?

 

That's not to say they've used FA to fill all needs with great players, you can never do that. But at least they have serviceable options that allow them to go where the BPA is.

[Luxy312]

I'm still not sure who's playing DE for this team aside from Mario. The guys on the roster aren't every down players (Hughes and Wynn) with nothing behind them. As much as people talk about a weaknesses elsewhere, they've got no starting caliber DE to line up opposite Williams.

 

To a degree, this type of thinking is a little bit dated. Let's just look at Hughes and Lawson. They combined for 14.0 sacks last season. Do you really think the team needs a full time/every play defensive end opposite Mario? Why not play Hughes, Lawson and Wynn and just rotate them to stay fresh? There was certainly enough productivity at the position to merit that possibility.

[thebandit27]

i think it will tell you pretty much what ever you want it too...

 

^ This

 

I think it just tells us that they are setting themselves up for flexibility. They don't want to be pressed into reaching for a player at a position of desperate need. They want to feel that they can trade back if they don't like the players when number 9 comes up. So far, I like what they've done.

 

For example, if Robinson, Clowney, Mack, Matthews, Watkins, and Evans are gone by the time the Bills pick, who would they take? Ebron? Would they want to take Lewan even though they think there might be a big drop and have him rated as more of a late round pick? Same with Barr or Mosley?

 

That's not to say they've used FA to fill all needs with great players, you can never do that. But at least they have serviceable options that allow them to go where the BPA is.

 

^ This too...set themselves up for a BPA pick, which is where you want to be as a team.

[KDIGGZ]

 

 

Well, I pulled my contract numbers right off Rotoworld. Not sure where your figures come from. 2014 says that his deal is $3.75 million + $1.75 million roster bonus due in March. 2015 says $5.5 million + $250K roster bonus. 2016 says $5.85 million and is the last year of his contract. For Mike Williams, 2014 says $1.2 million + $1.0 million roster bonus. 2015 says $5.2 million + $1.0 million roster bonus. You might be thinking about the prorated portion of original signing bonuses for Stevie that would take his cap number up to closer to the $9.0 million you're referencing. Regardless, if he's a casualty next season, then all of the original signing bonus is accelerated into a cap hit. I.e. they can either pay him next season his $5.5 and take a $9.0 million cap hit or they can let him go and take a $9.0 million cap hit anyway. For Williams, it's exactly as I stated. Tampa is eating the signing bonus for him, not the Bills.

Well my point was we have 2 expensive #2 receivers and no true #1 so although signs point to them taking a OT I think if there is a WR they are high on still available I hope they take him and not say hey we signed Williams so we are set at WR

[Flutie7Flakes]

Thank you! All of this nonsense about "we need Evans"....completely agree with the breakdown of WHY specific signings occurred and how based on the amounts they make sense for the Bills moving forward.

 

My bet would be that we're hoping the top portion of this draft is QB heavy (STL, CLE, JAX, MIN) that one of the top lineman OR Mack fall. If Mack goes beyond #2....it's worth trading up to #3 or lower in order to snag this top talent.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

During every offseason, we as fans love to speculate on what the front office is thinking going into the draft. Are they fixated on a player or position? Are there particular positions of "need" that would dictate a draft pick, like Gilmore and Dareus did? Alternatively, will they simply pick the best available player on their board regardless of need, ala Spiller? I offer up the following observations based on what the team has done in the offseason thus far:

 

Brandon Spikes - Signed a 1-year deal worth approximately $3.25 million plus performance based incentives. Presumably, he will be the guy in the middle on running downs, such that Kiko can move to his natural position at weak side linebacker. From a draft perspective, I don't have any ILB's ranked even in the top-20 draft prospects, so this would make sense.

 

Keith Rivers - Signed a 2-year deal worth approximately $4 million. With the signing bonus, $2.4 million of that will be paid this year. Schwartz is clearly setting up to run a 4-3 defense this season and Rivers would make sense on the outside opposite Kiko. From the draft, I'm sure the Bills would love to get Khalil Mack, but expecting that he'll fall to them at #9 is a pipe dream. If they have enough love for Anthony Barr, then Rivers could simply represent insurance such that if both are gone, they're still left with a starter.

 

Scott Chandler - Re-signed with the bills to a 2-year deal worth $4.75 million, of which about $2.75 million will be paid this season. Over the last 3 years, Chandler has been the Bills second leading receiver, behind only Stevie Johnson. Without over reading this, I can't see them picking Ebron in the 1st while still having Chandler, Smith, Moaki, Gragg, and also recently signed Caussin at TE. Chandler is the key though given that the rest are very much TBD's.

 

Mike Williams - The Bills traded a pick for him and will pay him just $2.2 million this year and $6.2 million next year. Next years compensation though will only be paid if he's retained. He's a local product and playing here with a chip on his shoulder. I pencil him in as the #2 at this point with Woods, Goodwin, Easley, Graham, and a score of others behind that. The availability of Sammy Watkins in the first is highly unlikely, and this would seem to mean to me that they're not #9 high on Mike Evans.

 

Corey Graham - His deal was 4-years and $16 million with $8.1 million guaranteed. That's a pretty big nut to say the least. Marrone has already said that he'll get a shot at playing Byrd's position. The dollars would seem to indicate to me that it's his job to lose. I don't dislike Searcy or Duke Williams, but think they'll be backups. Gilmore, McKelvin, and A.Williams round out the D-backs, so it would not seem to me that this position is one of importance in the draft.

 

Chris Williams - 4 years and $13.5 million with $5.5 million guaranteed. Like ILB's, there's not a guard worth drafting in the top-20. His pay says he's a starter none the less.

 

Jairus Wynn/Alan Branch - The recent signing of Wynn and the re-signing of Branch (with $3.1m in bonuses) tells me that they're set on the defensive line. They have their starters of course, but have a ton of depth for getting after quarterbacks. I can't imagine that there's a player at #9 at any of the positions that would have any value, and trading up for Clowney just doesn't make sense.

 

There may be other opinions of course, but I think that the Bills have clearly tipped their hands. Recent trades and acquisitions seem to fill multiple positions of need, and the dollars paid to boot suggest that they're not just picking up backups but starters. Erik Pears grades out almost dead last as a RT, but is penciled in as a starter. Hairston can't stay healthy enough to be counted on. It is to me the only clear position of need. Where that leaves me is a clear pick in the draft. Robinson or Matthews and moving Glenn to the right side or more likely Lewan. There is zero doubt in my mind that one of the three will be there when the Bills pick at #9. I could even see them trading down in the first and still getting a guy like Kouandjio and adding more picks later.

 

I believe they made the team better with irreverence to the draft. Now they are truely free to go any one of several directions and don't need to bank on any specific position with #9.

 

If you go into a draft urgently needing a starter at a position, you force yourself to overvalue players at that position. If you're flexible, you give yourself the opportunity to get the best or second best prospect at some position.

 

To elaborate, say the positions worthy of first rd picks are: QB, WR, ILB, OLB, DT, DE, CB, OT, TE....

 

Then imagine there are two best players at each position group. That means with a nonetheless pick you are guaranteed a best prospect at one of the listed positions or the second best prospect at a number of positions.

 

 

 

[Luxy312]

Well my point was we have 2 expensive #2 receivers and no true #1 so although signs point to them taking a OT I think if there is a WR they are high on still available I hope they take him and not say hey we signed Williams so we are set at WR

 

That we have 2 #2 receivers is debatable. Arguably the greatest Bills receiver in history in Andre Reed didn't manage to put together back to back 1,000 yard seasons. Stevie Johnson did it 3 years in a row before getting hurt last season. Prior to his injury, he was top-10 in productivity at his position. Not attacking you here, but your definition of "#1" is a bit lacking. He's averaged the same type of catch numbers that we've seen from Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Marques Colston. Sure, he hasn't had Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Wes Welker type numbers, but that doesn't make him a #2. It certainly doesn't support the notion that he's over paid. My original point and the point to this thread is to share what I think their logic is, not to what they SHOULD do. If I'm being perfectly honest, their first and second round picks should be best available player. It just doesn't look to me though that that's how it's shaping up.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Thank you! All of this nonsense about "we need Evans"....completely agree with the breakdown of WHY specific signings occurred and how based on the amounts they make sense for the Bills moving forward.

 

My bet would be that we're hoping the top portion of this draft is QB heavy (STL, CLE, JAX, MIN) that one of the top lineman OR Mack fall. If Mack goes beyond #2....it's worth trading up to #3 or lower in order to snag this top talent.

 

Does anyone question if his apparent top talent at UB will translate to the nfl?

 

I do agree there will be some surprise slip they have to look harder at..