boyst Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 (edited) I had posted this in another thread (the Rodrak fan club thread). I figured it might be worth it's own thread because of the amount of information in it. Not once did EJ Manuel get in the top 20% of all performances for the year. He got in @ 21%. 34 other teams QB's were ranked in the top 100 performances @ QBR for the year. Manning Kaep Rivers Palmer Romo Dalton Cutler Brady Ryan Stafford Fitzpatrick Brees Weeden Griffin McCown Cousins Wilson Cassel Campbell Foles Locker the other Manning Rodgers Tannehill A.Smith Roethlisberger Flacco Keenum Schaub Glennon Pryor Newton Hoyer G.Smith ____ 34 Geno Smith had 1 top 20% performance. Many of the other QB's were listed more then once, including Fitzpatrick (14th and 44th). Tannehill had two positions, 40 and 42. Romo 5th and 48th. Dalton 7th, 13th. EJ's first appearance was 2nd lowest among starters, at 111th. Ponder was rated lower at 127th but Cassel finished higher twice (29th and 103rd). In fact, our entire QB roster finished quite poorly: 111 Car 190 Jax 213 @Mia (Thad Lewis) 242 NYJ 246 NE 304 @NO (Thad Lewis) 327 Cin (Thad Lewis) 346 @NYJ 378 @NE (Thad Lewis) 390 Mia (Thad Lewis) 401 @Cle 404 Bal 432 ATL 459 KC (Jeff Tuel) 475 @TB 489 @Pit 511 @Cle (Jeff Tuel) of 256 games, or 512 starting QB's in competition, 519 QB performances graded. The stats above only show 17 QB's performances with both Manuels and Tuel's Cleveland game performances. Take from this what you will. It doesn't definitively draw a conclusion that our QB performance was sub par because stat lines mean so much. However, we can all agree that the Carolina game might have been EJ's best game and it clearly shows in his QBR. He was clutch at the end and made good decisions in that game. Edited January 12, 2014 by jboyst62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Nothing new. I think most of us aren't expecting greatness from our QBs, but we also know that we are invested in EJ for at least another season, if not two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 With all due respect, this is flawed IMO. Is Geno's performance against the Bills starting Justin Rogers & a bunch of injuries better than Manuel's against arguably the best D in the NFL really better? Also, this doesn't take the actually game in effect. Manuel could have padded his stats against the Jets the 2nd game but the Bills were cruising. Basically, for a rookie QB, the 2nd Jets game, the Carolina game, & the Jags after the awful 1st quarter were strong EJ performances. The TB, Pitt, and 1st Jets game were awful. The rest were inbetween. And personally, that's what I think u get from a rookie the majority of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 Holy Crap, I just realized Andrew Luck and Cam Newton did not turn in a top QBR performance for any game either. Newton's highest rating was 140, followed by 144, 158, 224, 232, 253, 270, 286, 307, 312, 314, 319, 336, 365...and so on. Luck appears at 130, 199, 204, 259, 269, 331, 363, 368, 369, 370, 386, 388... With all due respect, this is flawed IMO. Is Geno's performance against the Bills starting Justin Rogers & a bunch of injuries better than Manuel's against arguably the best D in the NFL really better? Also, this doesn't take the actually game in effect. Manuel could have padded his stats against the Jets the 2nd game but the Bills were cruising. Basically, for a rookie QB, the 2nd Jets game, the Carolina game, & the Jags after the awful 1st quarter were strong EJ performances. The TB, Pitt, and 1st Jets game were awful. The rest were inbetween. And personally, that's what I think u get from a rookie the majority of the time. look above. I don't know what it means if anything, but it's amazing to see that Newton and Luck - two of the games best young QB's they say didn't perform well at QBR's. I know I saw many mistakes by Newton when I watched him play but I really thought I saw a lot of improvement toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Holy Crap, I just realized Andrew Luck and Cam Newton did not turn in a top QBR performance for any game either. Newton's highest rating was 140, followed by 144, 158, 224, 232, 253, 270, 286, 307, 312, 314, 319, 336, 365...and so on. Luck appears at 130, 199, 204, 259, 269, 331, 363, 368, 369, 370, 386, 388... Good catch. QBR is. A very overrated stat IMO. My favorite qb stat is td to int. Anything else is very subjective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Good catch. QBR is. A very overrated stat IMO. My favorite qb stat is td to int. Anything else is very subjective. this Based on the stats (brought to our attention by JBoyst) Cam Newton and Andrew Luck both suck and don't deserve to be in the playoffs either. But they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 (edited) Good catch. QBR is. A very overrated stat IMO. My favorite qb stat is td to int. Anything else is very subjective. Stop making me look, I have work to do... Newton 24 TD's / 13 INT's = 1.8 TD's per INT Luck 23 TD's / 9 INT's = 2.55 TD's per INT Manuel 11 TD's / 9 INT's = 1.22TD's per INT Newton 473 ATT / 13 INT's = 1 INT per 33.31 passes Luck 570 ATT / 9 INT's = 1 INT per 56.78 passes Manuel 306 ATT / 9 INT's = 1 INT per 34.56 passes Apparantly Luck didn't get that memo this post season, because: Luck 6 TD's / 7 INT's = 1 INT per .85 TD's Luck 86 ATT / 7 INT's = 1 INT per 12.29 passes. this Based on the stats (brought to our attention by JBoyst) Cam Newton and Andrew Luck both suck and don't deserve to be in the playoffs either. But they are. see above... whats that say about Luck? Honestly, he doesn't deserve to be in the playoffs with a pick every 13 passes. Edited January 12, 2014 by jboyst62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Stop making me look, I have work to do... Newton 24 TD's / 13 INT's = 1.8 TD's per INT Luck 23 TD's / 9 INT's = 2.55 TD's per INT Manuel 11 TD's / 9 INT's = 1.22TD's per INT Newton 473 ATT / 13 INT's = 1 INT per 33.31 passes Luck 570 ATT / 9 INT's = 1 INT per 56.78 passes Manuel 306 ATT / 9 INT's = 1 INT per 34.56 passes Apparantly Luck didn't get that memo this post season, because: Luck 6 TD's / 7 INT's = 1 INT per .85 TD's Luck 86 ATT / 7 INT's = 1 INT per 12.29 passes. see above... whats that say about Luck? Honestly, he doesn't deserve to be in the playoffs with a pick every 13 passes. I think that's the biggest knock on Luck. He seems to throw a ton of picks. Besides, the TB game, EJ took good care of the ball. But the other side is that Luck takes a lot of ***** down field. I believe he only completed 54% of his passes as a rookie. It's why I think the Jags game was very important EJ. He had a terrible quarter after a bad game. Yet, he finished the game great. Says a lot about his mental toughness. IMO, to maximize this offense, it should be like the 49ers. Run first, then hit the big pass. And if the Bills get a big wr/ TE, they could easily follow that formula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'm not sure QBR is the perfect stat for measuring QBs but that's really a moot point. The bigger point is that we all know EJ didn't play very well in 2013 but none of us know how well he'll play in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 My biggest hope is that EJ averages 2 or 3 less bad games a year going forward. I think that'd win us a few extra games by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
develop818 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 (edited) I wish EJ would take a lot of sh$$$ downfield. But on a serious note. You guys look way too into the numbers. Cam and Luck make throws EJ doesn't even think are there. They throw receivers open. EJ throws to open receivers. It's a GIANT difference and the difference between a college QB and an NFL one. I hope he pans out. But it's looking really bad. His accuracy is **** even when his WRs are open. What's his ceiling? Not very high. It's not that receivers aren't open. It's that he thinks they're not. And lacks the ability to make them. The int stat is so skewed. It's why he struggles mightily to throw for 200 yards. In the NFL! Fitz didn't even have this problem. I'm not a fitz fan but he is better than ej will ever be. Edited January 13, 2014 by BuffaloBill Remove profanity though it was funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I think that's the biggest knock on Luck. He seems to throw a ton of picks. Besides, the TB game, EJ took good care of the ball. But the other side is that Luck takes a lot of ***** down field. I believe he only completed 54% of his passes as a rookie. It's why I think the Jags game was very important EJ. He had a terrible quarter after a bad game. Yet, he finished the game great. Says a lot about his mental toughness. IMO, to maximize this offense, it should be like the 49ers. Run first, then hit the big pass. And if the Bills get a big wr/ TE, they could easily follow that formula. Uh, someone got past the profanity blocker with a typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I wish EJ would take a lot of sh$$$ downfield. But on a serious note. You guys look way too into the numbers. Cam and Luck make throws EJ doesn't even think are there. They throw receivers open. EJ throws to open receivers. It's a GIANT difference and the difference between a college QB and an NFL one. I hope he pans out. But it's looking really bad. His accuracy is **** even when his WRs are open. What's his ceiling? Not very high. It's not that receivers aren't open. It's that he thinks they're not. And lacks the ability to make them. The int stat is so skewed. It's why he struggles mightily to throw for 200 yards. In the NFL! Fitz didn't even have this problem. I'm not a fitz fan but he is better than ej will ever be. Wow - that last sentence is a tough one to wrap my head around. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doug Flutie Band Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 (edited) I wish EJ would take a lot of sh$$$ downfield. lol here's QBs sorted by QBR this year Manning Rivers Brees Foles Rodgers Kaepernick Cutler Luck Ryan Brady Romo Wilson Newton Dalton Fitzpatrick Roethlisberger Stafford Palmer Ponder McGloin Smith Cassel Bradford Flacco Tannehill Glennon Manuel Griffin Campbell Clemens Schaub Manning Geno Keenum Henne Pryor Weeden Flynn it's not a perfect list but its pretty reasonable for QB play this season Edited January 13, 2014 by BuffaloBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I wish EJ would take a lot of sh$$$ downfield. I'm not a fitz fan but he is better than ej will ever be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Holy Crap, I just realized Andrew Luck and Cam Newton did not turn in a top QBR performance for any game either. Newton's highest rating was 140, followed by 144, 158, 224, 232, 253, 270, 286, 307, 312, 314, 319, 336, 365...and so on. Luck appears at 130, 199, 204, 259, 269, 331, 363, 368, 369, 370, 386, 388... look above. I don't know what it means if anything, but it's amazing to see that Newton and Luck - two of the games best young QB's they say didn't perform well at QBR's. I know I saw many mistakes by Newton when I watched him play but I really thought I saw a lot of improvement toward the end. This could be why they did not prevail in PO's. It is a team sport but QB play at a high level can help to overcome other team deficiencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Good catch. QBR is. A very overrated stat IMO. My favorite qb stat is td to int. Anything else is very subjective. TD's and INTs are subjective to though. If a team likes to run the ball inside the 10 instead of throwing a QB might not pile up the TDs like some others but it doesn't mean he's not very instrumental in moving the ball down field and scoring. My favorite QB stat is YPA. Good QBs have a high one and mediocre and bad QBs have a low one - it's almost universal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
develop818 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Uh, someone got past the profanity blocker with a typo. The "i" and "o" are right next to each other I swear! That's the last thing I'd want EJ to do! TD's and INTs are subjective to though. If a team likes to run the ball inside the 10 instead of throwing a QB might not pile up the TDs like some others but it doesn't mean he's not very instrumental in moving the ball down field and scoring. My favorite QB stat is YPA. Good QBs have a high one and mediocre and bad QBs have a low one - it's almost universal. True but it also shows how good you take care of the ball. Red zone td % and 3rd down conversion are also good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
develop818 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 (edited) It's funny because it's true. Did you watch cam and lucks first season? Throw the numbers out. They mean nothing. Russell Wilson threw for 100 yards and won. It's about the throws they are capable of making. Not the stats. The TD throw cam made to Steve smith in the first quarter is an NFL throw. Throwing to a wide open receiver is not what it's about. How many wide open receivers did you see in yesterday's games? Go watch the film. EJ and Fitz are both good back ups. Nothing more. Edited January 13, 2014 by develop818 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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