The dire state of Bills QB play

[RuntheDamnBall]

Good work, Dave.

At the risk of regurgitating comments made elsewhere by others, I will add that the biggest transgression Whaley and Co. can do is to not bring another QB option to camp. A few ways we can go:

- Draft one in Round 1: Problem is several teams above us need a QB. We cant afford to waste draft picks to move up. Also, if this FO's success at evaluating QBs puts us in a bind. This is the same team that selected EJ. If he turns out to be good, we wont need another high pick @ QB. But if he doesn't, how will we know that any QB we select is good ?

- Draft one in Round 2 or lower: Unless we land a hidden gem like Kaepernick or Wilson, this is a useless move in the short run. We need to know in the next season (and no later) what we do or don't have. Drafting a lower order QB likely won't allow us to evaluate this talent adequately.

- Trade or sign a cast-off: Likely QBs like Matt Schaub will come available. I think Schaub is not a world beater but is adequate and had a really down year. He is sort of like Alex Smith in that regard, which is not entirely a bad thing. I had wanted the FO to get Smith and draft a Qb last season. We can fix that now

 

Of all the above choices, I am leaning towards the third. Get a game manager cast-off QB who can manage the game for us. If EJ fails in the first half of the season, bench him and let this QB handle the rest of the season, then draft a QB in 2015. We cannot let another season go by with no contingency plan at QB.

I think using a R1 pick on a QB when the top talent is gone at that position is lunacy. There will be so much other top talent available that it's not a good idea to take second tier that high. It's a mis-allocation of resources, of the sort that netted us JP Losman and McCargo. We aren't in DIRE need of a QB, it would just be a very good idea to have a plan B in case of EJ regression or injury.

 

I would be more than happy to see them use a second or a third on a guy who just had a year not as good as last, like Murray or Boyd. I really believe in those two and not a year ago were they both considered potential top 20 picks.

 

To me, Schaub looked in real decline this year. There is a chance that like Palmer he just needed a change of scenery. McCown could be another option but he is talking retirement and they'd also have to outbid the Bears for him. The other FA options are middling unless someone like Bradford gets cut. This is probably an unpopular idea but I think Ponder could actually make a decent backup, if he gets cut.

 

I want no part of the Jax QBs, Cutler, Weeden, Vick, or Manziel on the draft front.

[thewildrabbit]

Oh' good Lord another QB thread, and I'm the supposed to be QB crazy.

You are dude, from Talleywhacker to ..... here is a link to a list of QB's you can drool over http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2014/QB

 

 

So, do we want the Bills to draft Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel, Carr, Mettenburger, AJ McCarron, Tajh Boyd?

 

Still think the best thing the Bills could have done last offseason, was keep Fitz. Don't understand why they dumped Fitz for Kolb. Fitz was a serviceable, smart QB that could have helped out Manuel. He probably would have been the starter for the early part of the year and given way to Manuel later in the season.

Might be about 8 million reasons as to why Fitz is gone.

 

Plus, most Bills fans had their torches lit and pitchforks out if he had stayed in Buffalo. They loved him over Trenty, but got very tired of his inaccuracy. It is a shame as he could have mentored EJ with his reads and pass protections.

[KGUNBILLS]

IMO in order of availability, Manziel, Bortles, McCarron, then possibly Bridgewater. I just don't have that gut feeling on the others. If I'm wrong, I guess that's why the Bills aren't knocking on my door for my insightful draft knowledge.

[Kemp2Warlick]

from PFF..16. E.J. Manuel, QB, Buffalo Bills

Grade: -19.8

Snaps: 706

Analysis: The only quarterback drafted in the first round ended the year with our second lowest grade of all quarterbacks as he struggled mightily. Failed to get the vertical aspect of the Bills passing attack working and had problems with his accuracy (fifth lowest adjusted Accuracy Percentage). The Bills really need a huge step forward with him next year.

[thewildrabbit]

from PFF..16. E.J. Manuel, QB, Buffalo Bills

Grade: -19.8

Snaps: 706

Analysis: The only quarterback drafted in the first round ended the year with our second lowest grade of all quarterbacks as he struggled mightily. Failed to get the vertical aspect of the Bills passing attack working and had problems with his accuracy (fifth lowest adjusted Accuracy Percentage). The Bills really need a huge step forward with him next year.

As bad as that grade is, it isn't as bad as LG Colin Browns or his back up at LG was thru week 5! Center Eric Wood regressed a bit as did RG Erik Pears. Then look at the grade for the replacement LG Doug Legursky

"Stock Down: Doug Legursky (-8.1, Q4 2013; -2.0, Q3 2013)

I would say the Bills made the right choice in not breaking the bank to keep left guard Andy Levitre, but adequately replacing him was not something they managed to do. Colin Brown notched a disastrous -30.1 overall grade in only six starts and while Legursky was an improvement but still struggled as the season went on, earning a run block grade of -1.9 or worse in five of his final six starts. An area to improve in the offseason for the Bills."

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/01/02/stock-report-afc-fourth-quarter/

 

"8. Erik Pears ($2.8 million). A steady performer in each of his last two seasons, the 12th-highest paid player on the roster didn't have a good season for the Bills in 2013. Despite playing every offensive snap, his cap figure was way too high for a guy getting beat as consistently as he did." http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-opinion/2014/1/1/5250636/2013-buffalo-bills-year-in-review-worst-roster-values

 

Then considering the offensive scheme EJ was thrust into, whereas if the run game failed to do well out of the gate the entire offense fell on the Bills QB shoulders to carry the game.

 

Rookie HC, Rookie OC, Rookie QB, and all had their own issues. The Bills FO must have more faith in EJ then the fans here do, as he is their starting QB in 2014.

[Ramius]

Nice post Dave. Interesting to note that the 2 best seasons were '02, propelled by the Bledsoe hot streak in the 1st 8 games, and '06, when the much maligned JP Losman started all 16 games.

[dave mcbride]

To the OP, I'd argue that passer rating will be skewed against our favor naturally due to the weather conditions that the Bills play in. This also was a positive factor for the defense. However, I think that as a fanbase, we need to have a little patience as opposed to running guy after guy out of town. Ideally, I would have loved to have seen Losman take the job from Bledsoe by beating him out, same with Manuel over Fitz. These jobs should be earned by the QB's not given as a royalty. We gave each QB of the future major headaches by mishandling them by not letting them work things out, pulling them for a backup. Consequently ruining their confidence, and the team's confidence in QB of the future. The only exception is Trent where they rushed him back from a concussion and he got another one soon after. This cycle needs to stop for us to have any chance.

Re the weather: New England and GB.

[Sisyphean Bills]

I must respectfully disagree that we saw something worse this year.

 

To me, "worse" is more of the same with no chance of improvement and no future.

Fitz performance in Tenn. this year was very much on a par with his performance here last year. In 11 games, rating of 82. Projected to 16 games, about 3500 yds passing, 20 TD, 17 int, 7.0 YPA. And Tenn. finished with a 7-9 record, 1 more win than the Bills, to which Fitz contributed exactly proportionately.

 

Yes, EJ's QB play, when he played, was worse than Fitz - but he's a rookie, and there is hope that if he really has the "fire in his belly" and wants to work hard in the off-season and improve, he will. As has been noted, many a good QB had a similar mediocre 1st year, and a capable veteran will almost always outplay a rookie. To me, that's not worse, despite the statistics.

 

If your point is that the rabid disparagement,hatred even, dished out to Fitz last year on this board was off the reservation and lacked a sense of proportion, I would agree. He's not the worst QB ever or even the worst QB in the league, but it's pretty clear he's not and will never be clutch or elite.

 

Ironically, the numbers show that Fitpatrick did slowly "improve". But, like you say, that's only the statistics. The number doesn't convey Fitzpatrick's propensity to deliver the un-clutch play at the worst moment and lose games.

 

My question would be if Gailey could've continued to tweak Fitzpatrick in the right direction. It's unanswerable at this point. But, if he gets into the upper 80s or low 90s, is this a playoff team? The fans wouldn't have stood for it. And, the promotion of Wannstedt from underachieving LB coach to horrific DC, who the players totally quit on, was a guaranteed termination type bad decision by Chan.

[Terry Tate]

2013 was bad, but it's of a piece with Buffalo Bills football as we've come to know and love it.

 

Here's the sorry recent history of the Bills' collective passer rating over the past 20 years:

 

2013: 75.0

2012: 82.2

2011: 77.0

2010: 75.2

2009: 71.7

2008: 81.3

2007: 73.8

2006: 84.6 (!)

2005: 75.4

2004: 76.7

2003: 69.4

2002: 86.0

2001: 74.7

2000: 84.3

1999: 78.1

1998: 91.0 (this was their best team over all of this time span, incidentally)

1997: 60.8

1996: 72.6

1995: 79.9

1994: 81.2

 

A couple of observations:

 

1) The new Mendoza line in qb play is 80.0. It used to be 73-75 until about 2004-05 or so (when the rules changed).

 

2) There is no way to sugarcoat it or explain it away: with a couple of exceptions, the Bills Qb performance over the last two decades has been epically bad. The team has occasionally had good defenses, good running games, and good special teams play. But it's all meaningless if you're running out QBs completely incapable of generating a moderately decent 85.0 rating.

 

3) Manuel is a rookie, so I'm withholding judgment. That said, if he doesn't achieve an 85 rating or better next season, I suspect I'll consign him to the ever growing ash heap of bad Bills quarterbacks.

 

4) To give you a sense of how bad 75.0 is, opposing QBs collectively managed to achieve a 74.9 rating against the Bills D. The thing is, the Bills were third in the NFL, with only Cincy (74.2) and Seattle (63.4) doing better. The Bills pass D was phenomenal this year, which is even more impressive given that in the previous couple of seasons they were allowing collective passer ratings in the low 90s (which is dismal). Pettine deserves a ton of credit for that.

 

5) A year or two ago, there was a great analysis (maybe on si.com or espn.com; I can't recall) that conclusively demonstrated that qb rating differential (that is, the difference between your qbs' collective rating and the opposing qbs' collective rating) was the single greatest predictor of success and failure in the NFL. It covered decades of results. In other words, the clowns the Bills have rolled out at qb year after year after year just don't give the team a chance.

 

EDIT: I found the article. Enjoy: http://sportsillustr...g.differential/

Dave McBride, I have been reading posts on this site since it first appeared, and the level of knowledge I have gained, the few online connections with posters (in the past), and the general entertainment has always had me coming back to at least lurk and read. This post may be simultaneously the best, and most depressing, post I have read in all those years. Well done, and Dammit.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Except the Bills are not most mediocre. They're two spots away from being the worst over the last 14 cumulative seasons. In fine company with Lions & Browns. Even Jags won more games over that span.

 

Hereand here.

 

Wouldn't the title "most mediocre" belong to a team that hasn't won big, lost big, and is wedged in the 16 to 21 range? Being 3rd worst suggests striving for less than mediocreness.

[dave mcbride]

 

Dave McBride, I have been reading posts on this site since it first appeared, and the level of knowledge I have gained, the few online connections with posters (in the past), and the general entertainment has always had me coming back to at least lurk and read. This post may be simultaneously the best, and most depressing, post I have read in all those years. Well done, and Dammit.

 

Thanks! I aim to please.

[CardinalScotts]

hmmmm the "Elite" guys like Flacco and Eli come in at 73.1 and 69.4 respectively - hey wait a minute

Last year Rookie qb's Luck 76.5, Tannehill 76.1 Jake Locker 74.0 wow not really record breaking - hey wait a minute

[San Jose Bills Fan]

hmmmm the "Elite" guys like Flacco and Eli come in at 73.1 and 69.4 respectively - hey wait a minute

Last year Rookie qb's Luck 76.5, Tannehill 76.1 Jake Locker 74.0 wow not really record breaking - hey wait a minute

 

Yep.

 

EJ Manuel, 77.7

[BADOLBILZ]

hmmmm the "Elite" guys like Flacco and Eli come in at 73.1 and 69.4 respectively - hey wait a minute

Last year Rookie qb's Luck 76.5, Tannehill 76.1 Jake Locker 74.0 wow not really record breaking - hey wait a minute

 

 

Quarterbacking became gradually easier since the early 2000's but it got a lot easier starting in 2010.

 

That was the season where the NFL started cracking down hard on hits to the QB and defenseless receivers. Do we recall the Pittsburgh Steelers getting fined every week and the emerging concerns about concussions?

 

There really is no reason to go back 20 years........5 of the top 10 individual passer rating seasons have occurred since the concussion based crackdown in 2010.

 

Not surprisingly with a less dangerous pocket we are seeing rookie QB's putting up rookie numbers that seem respectable by an older standard.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Quarterbacking became gradually easier since the early 2000's but it got a lot easier starting in 2010.

 

That was the season where the NFL started cracking down hard on hits to the QB and defenseless receivers. Do we recall the Pittsburgh Steelers getting fined every week and the emerging concerns about concussions?

 

There really is no reason to go back 20 years........5 of the top 10 individual passer rating seasons have occurred since the concussion based crackdown in 2010.

 

Not surprisingly with a less dangerous pocket we are seeing rookie QB's putting up rookie numbers that seem respectable by an older standard.

 

Rookie 1st Round QBs since 2010:

 

Robert Griffin III: 102.4 (an NFL record)

Cam Newton: 84.5

Tim Tebow 82.1

EJ Manuel 77.7

Andrew Luck 76.5

Sam Bradford 76.5

Ryan Tannehill 76.1

Jake Locker 74.0

Brandon Weeden 72.6

Christian Ponder 70.1

Blaine Gabbert 65.4

Edited January 4, 2014 by San Jose Bills Fan

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Rookie 1st Round QBs Pre- 2010:

 

Matt Ryan 87.7

Joe Flacco 80.3

Matt Leinart 74.0

Vince Young 66.7

Mark Sanchez 63.0

Matthew Stafford 61.0

Josh Freeman 59.8

Brady Quinn 56.8

Jamarcus Russell 55.9

 

You might be onto something.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Rookie 1st Round QBs Pre- 2010:

 

Matt Ryan 87.7

Joe Flacco 80.3

Matt Leinart 74.0

Vince Young 66.7

Mark Sanchez 63.0

Matthew Stafford 61.0

Josh Freeman 59.8

Brady Quinn 56.8

Jamarcus Russell 55.9

 

You might be onto something.

Pretty small sample size to be working with, IMO. It's a lot easier to gather and compare data when athletes are all performing the same task, I.e. hitting in baseball. Working with a pool reduced to first rounders at a single position over 8 years or so - during which the game itself has changed - is extremely difficult. Something to remember when we berate the talent evaluators. They have a really hard job, at least when it comes to the world of sport.

 

This list also must be prior to Alex Smith, Vick and Rodgers, though Rodgers of course sat his rookie year and then some.

[Bill from NYC]

 

 

Rookie 1st Round QBs since 2010:

 

Robert Griffin III: 102.4 (an NFL record)

Cam Newton: 84.5

Tim Tebow 82.1

EJ Manuel 77.7

Andrew Luck 76.5

Sam Bradford 76.5

Ryan Tannehill 76.1

Jake Locker 74.0

Brandon Weeden 72.6

Christian Ponder 70.1

Blaine Gabbert 65.4

 

SJBF, there is something seriously flawed in a rating system that places Manuel above Luck, who btw I think is the best prospect to come out of college that I have seen in a long time, if ever.

 

The Colts were the worst team in the league before he came along and carried them to the playoffs. And call me crazy, but imo the Bills have a better roster (other than QB) than the Colts.

 

In his rookie season, Luck even rushed for 255 yds. in 62 attempts. He scored 5 TDs and had 23 first downs on the ground.

 

I am not saying that Bills Fans had/have a right to expect EJ to be as good as Luck. We do not. This post was more about the rating system. It's hard to take it seriously when on paper, EJ scores higher than Andrew Luck.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Bill from NYC

[CSBill]

2013 was bad, but it's of a piece with Buffalo Bills football as we've come to know and love it.

 

Here's the sorry recent history of the Bills' collective passer rating over the past 20 years:

 

2013: 75.0

2012: 82.2

2011: 77.0

2010: 75.2

2009: 71.7

2008: 81.3

2007: 73.8

2006: 84.6 (!)

2005: 75.4

2004: 76.7

2003: 69.4

2002: 86.0

2001: 74.7

2000: 84.3

1999: 78.1

1998: 91.0 (this was their best team over all of this time span, incidentally)

1997: 60.8

1996: 72.6

1995: 79.9

1994: 81.2

 

A couple of observations:

 

1) The new Mendoza line in qb play is 80.0. It used to be 73-75 until about 2004-05 or so (when the rules changed).

 

2) There is no way to sugarcoat it or explain it away: with a couple of exceptions, the Bills Qb performance over the last two decades has been epically bad. The team has occasionally had good defenses, good running games, and good special teams play. But it's all meaningless if you're running out QBs completely incapable of generating a moderately decent 85.0 rating.

 

3) Manuel is a rookie, so I'm withholding judgment. That said, if he doesn't achieve an 85 rating or better next season, I suspect I'll consign him to the ever growing ash heap of bad Bills quarterbacks.

 

4) To give you a sense of how bad 75.0 is, opposing QBs collectively managed to achieve a 74.9 rating against the Bills D. The thing is, the Bills were third in the NFL, with only Cincy (74.2) and Seattle (63.4) doing better. The Bills pass D was phenomenal this year, which is even more impressive given that in the previous couple of seasons they were allowing collective passer ratings in the low 90s (which is dismal). Pettine deserves a ton of credit for that.

 

5) A year or two ago, there was a great analysis (maybe on si.com or espn.com; I can't recall) that conclusively demonstrated that qb rating differential (that is, the difference between your qbs' collective rating and the opposing qbs' collective rating) was the single greatest predictor of success and failure in the NFL. It covered decades of results. In other words, the clowns the Bills have rolled out at qb year after year after year just don't give the team a chance.

 

EDIT: I found the article. Enjoy: http://sportsillustr...g.differential/

 

Great post, and the conclusion is . . .

 

http://youtu.be/aYKIcnj1MJY

 

Bad!

 

Rookie 1st Round QBs since 2010:

 

Robert Griffin III: 102.4 (an NFL record)

Cam Newton: 84.5

Tim Tebow 82.1

EJ Manuel 77.7

Andrew Luck 76.5

Sam Bradford 76.5

Ryan Tannehill 76.1

Jake Locker 74.0

Brandon Weeden 72.6

Christian Ponder 70.1

Blaine Gabbert 65.4

 

I heard Tim Tebow is a free agent, we should go after him . . .

Edited January 4, 2014 by CSBill

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Pretty small sample size to be working with, IMO. It's a lot easier to gather and compare data when athletes are all performing the same task, I.e. hitting in baseball. Working with a pool reduced to first rounders at a single position over 8 years or so - during which the game itself has changed - is extremely difficult. Something to remember when we berate the talent evaluators. They have a really hard job, at least when it comes to the world of sport.

 

This list also must be prior to Alex Smith, Vick and Rodgers, though Rodgers of course sat his rookie year and then some.

 

I know it's fairly meaningless but I thought it would be fun to run the numbers and see what came up.

 

SJBF, there is something seriously flawed in a rating system that places Manuel below Luck, who btw I think is the best prospect to come out of college that I have seen in a long time, if ever.

 

The Colts were the worst team in the league before he came along and carried them to the playoffs. And call me crazy, but imo the Bills have a better roster (other than QB) than the Colts.

 

In his rookie season, Luck even rushed for 255 yds. in 62 attempts. He scored 5 TDs and had 23 first downs on the ground.

 

I am not saying that Bills Fans had/have a right to expect EJ to be as good as Luck. We do not. This post was more about the rating system. It's hard to take it seriously when on paper, EJ scores higher than Andrew Luck.

 

Statistics are limited. The list was to provide data, perspective. Believe me I harbor no illusions that EJ is in the same class as Andrew Luck. On the other hand he's not as horrible as a lot of people here want to make him out to be.

 

And again, passer rating while not infallible, is one stat that people can't be dismissive of:

 

http://en.wikipedia....i/Passer_rating

 

In 2011, CNNSI published an article by Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts highlighting the importance of passer rating in determining a team's success.^[6] "Put most simply," the article states, "you cannot be a smart football analyst and dismiss passer rating. In fact, it's impossible to look at the incredible correlation of victory to passer rating and then dismiss it. You might as well dismiss the score of a game when determining a winner. [...] Few, if any, are more indicative of wins and losses than passer rating. Teams that posted a higher passer rating went 203-53 (.793) in 2010and an incredible 151-29 (.839) after Week 5." Byrne made an expanded defense of the passer rating and its importance for the Pro Football Researchers Association in 2012.^[7] The study noted that of the eight teams since 1940 to lead the league in both offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating, all won championships.^[8]

 

Same with passer rating differential:

 

http://sportsillustr...g.differential/

 

"The Most Important Stat in Football"