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Biggest bust in last half decade?


dave mcbride

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I don't think a QB even #1 can be the same level of bust as any other position, simply because (while unfortunate when it is you) there is an expected 50% bust factor in general, and that is understood and accepted because the payoff of a top QB is so high.

 

But when you take a LT or a LB or DE, or a skill player in the top 10, you are really expecting that player to have a floor of "good useful player for 5+ seasons" and a reasonable expectation of "great player for 7+ seasons".

 

I don't think Maybin can be considered, as big of a bust as he was, because he wasn't even a top 10 pick. I think Curry is the type that really fits, and there probably are a few other examples like that.

Agree and disagree. I agree you expect a better rate of return on positions like OT, RB, and LB's takne in the first round. But I disagree on the imapct of missing on a QB. Teams are reluctant to do what Carolina did and take Newton the year after taking Clausen. Teams waste years trying to make their pick work instead of just admitting the mistake. Also if Vernon Gholston can't play DE he can at least play special teams. QB's don't even hold placekicks anymore.

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I think, in order to judge who might be the biggest bust, you have to take into consideration things like:

 

- draft slot, so guys selected #1 overall have more "bust" impact than a guy drafted #10

- position, so guys who play QB probably have more "bust" impact than, say, an OL

- hype coming out of the draft, so guys judged as "can't miss" have more "bust" impact than less heralded players (probably related to the first item above)

- how long the guy's career was, so a guy who flames out after 3 years is more of a bust than, say, a guy who lingers around the league, however unproductively, for 7 years

- some important stats, like games started, impact plays (TDs), and such, even if there weren't many

- injuries, and the part they played in reducing impact/shortening his career

 

 

The other factor is how much reach their was in drafting the player.

 

I lessen the idea of a player being a bus if they were the concessous pick by many if they were in the same draft position. An example would be the OT Williams Buffalo picked at #4.

 

another factor--if it was overall a weak draft. If your pick was a bust but so worse the players picked right behind that pick were also busts---that lessens the sting.

 

Something else seem to forget----in the NFL--especially when it comes to defense---a player needs to be able to fit the system the team plays. Sometimes a player sucks because they area mismatch in the system.

 

Maybin was not a bigger bust than Curry. People had doubts about Maybin; no one that I know of had doubts about Curry.

 

I have a different perspective on this...

 

If the player was someone everyone agreed should be picked there and was a bust it lessens it than if they player may have been a reach by a team.

 

There is just that random chance a player busts. With Curry alot of it had to do with injuries.

 

With Maybin ---many teams didnt have him that high--- compunded by the fact of the players passed over picked right after playing in a similar position have had much more success.

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