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Game 1: Bills versus Jets


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I'd like to read your thoughts concerning the Bills first game. Here, briefly, are mine:

 

When the Bills have the ball.

 

We have two backs who averaged over 5 ypc last year but fans hoping to see us pound the ball will be disappointed. The Bills offensive line just isn't that physical and, anyway, Chan is going to be Chan. Gailey likes to throw out of a spread offense because it forces the opposing team to defend every part of the field. You could say - somewhat simplistically but accurately - that Chan uses the pass to open up the run. So despite the strength of the Jets secondary, Fitz will put the ball in the air but not with great success.

 

When the Jets have the ball.

 

The Jets O has looked pathetic in preseason so far and they have personnel issues that will be hard to overcome. But it will be interesting to see what Rex does with Tebow's unique but flawed skill set. Rex has said that an advantage of having Tebow is that it forces opponents to waste valuable preparation time on him rather than the base offense. To keep that threat credible, Rex will have to use a good amount of Tebow against the Bills. And we haven't seen Rex's best Tebow ideas in preseason - he's saving them for the Bills game.

 

Prediction

 

Although we'll see some breakdowns, the Bills D will play well enough that the Bills will eke out a close win in a low scoring game. Fitz's stat line won't be pretty, however, and his critics will be howling that we should have picked QB X (whoever looks good in Week One) in 2011/2012.

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After seeing both the Jets & Bills for three games I agree with a lot of what you've said. My gut feeling was that this would be an ugly low-scoring game as well. The Jets are at home which may or may not be an advantage if they start slow...New York fans could turn on them quite quickly. On the other hand if it is a tight, down to the wire type game, the home field advantage, coupled with the fact that the Jets D is more experienced in areas we are not (linebackers especially) could swing things in their favor.

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I don't see the offensive line as not physical. Put a healthy Eric Wood in and that changes the whole line. When a offensive guard doesn't have to make up for a center's deficiencies, he can focus on helping the tackle. You can say what you want about Fitz, but I would not be surprised if the passing game is clicking on all cylinders against the Jets. He is very average when he doesn't have starting receivers to throw to and he is hurried. But give him some targets that are getting open and he tends to get hot even when he doesn't have a lot of time to throw.

 

Prediction

 

The defense will have some breakdowns. How can they not with so many new and 2nd year players in prominant roles? They'll need some time to get it together, but from day 1 the defensive line will flash streaks of dominance. Offensively, I am a bit more optimistic. I don't see a blowout victory over the Jets, but it will be a convincing victory none the less. The critics can go F___ themselves.

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Our last game against the Jets, our offense moved the ball against their secondary at will. In fact, I believe Fitz had almost 300 yard and 3 TD's.

 

II don't think Fitz & Stevie are good enough to have productive games against Revis & Co. every time. I would love to be wrong, though.

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I don't see the offensive line as not physical. Put a healthy Eric Wood in and that changes the whole line. When a offensive guard doesn't have to make up for a center's deficiencies, he can focus on helping the tackle. You can say what you want about Fitz, but I would not be surprised if the passing game is clicking on all cylinders against the Jets. He is very average when he doesn't have starting receivers to throw to and he is hurried. But give him some targets that are getting open and he tends to get hot even when he doesn't have a lot of time to throw.

 

Prediction

 

The defense will have some breakdowns. How can they not with so many new and 2nd year players in prominant roles? They'll need some time to get it together, but from day 1 the defensive line will flash streaks of dominance. Offensively, I am a bit more optimistic. I don't see a blowout victory over the Jets, but it will be a convincing victory none the less. The critics can go F___ themselves.

 

The Bills were either last in the league or close to it in 3rd-and-1 and 3rd-and-2 situations last year. The offensive line just didn't produce a lot of push when it was obvious we needed to run. But maybe you are right that having a healthy (is he?) Wood will change things.

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I'd like to read your thoughts concerning the Bills first game. Here, briefly, are mine:

 

When the Bills have the ball.

 

We have two backs who averaged over 5 ypc last year but fans hoping to see us pound the ball will be disappointed. The Bills offensive line just isn't that physical and, anyway, Chan is going to be Chan. Gailey likes to throw out of a spread offense because it forces the opposing team to defend every part of the field. You could say - somewhat simplistically but accurately - that Chan uses the pass to open up the run. So despite the strength of the Jets secondary, Fitz will put the ball in the air but not with great success.

And he's right. The Bills will need to throw the ball successfully to win. No one is getting 5 yards a carry on the Jets' base defense.

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Our last game against the Jets, our offense moved the ball against their secondary at will. In fact, I believe Fitz had almost 300 yard and 3 TD's.

 

They had a fine game offensively. "At will" might be stretching it - a tipped ball to Brad Smith was responsible for 1 of the TD's. Plus we did nothing in the 1st game.

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If you would have asked me this question a month ago I'd have said that we were poised to grab an early road game against a division foe, but as pathetic as the Jets look on offense, we're not to far behind them. This game will come down to possession and field position, and both defenses will be a big part of it. On paper our front 4 is more dominating, their linebackers are better than ours, and their secondary is more polished and can play man to man. It all equals a tough day for Fitz and Co unless we can get the deep ball working to open up the running game.

 

We MUST be able to run in order to pass, NOT the reverse as Chan's usual play calling dictates. Against other, less formidable defenses Chan's style on offense can work, but against the Jets, and sexy Rexy, he's know us too well. Last year we tried the run but moved away from it to early. We need tos tick to it more, and we should prevail. Revis has had a year to watch film on Stevie. I don't expect Stevie will have his way with him again this game.

 

Close game until 4th quarter where one defense begins to crack under the strain of being out there so long.

 

We win a big game 23 - 14

 

 

Tim-

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The way Stevie looked against Pitt he is not even close to ready to play any NFL game much less against the best corner in the league.

 

Rex will play 8 in the box and force the throw. They were ranked 13th against the run last year, not dominant but good enough. With a rusty Stevie/Fitz I think the game will be decided by the Chandler, Nelson, Jones trio and how well they can move the ball.

 

Tebow doesn't scare me at all. We shut him down last year I expect the same.

 

Low scoring game Bills win 16-10

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