bearc012 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Interestingly, pretty exhaustive modeling and projections run by Football Outsiders tabbed the Bills at second in the division with 9.7 wins and a 57% chance of making the playoffs. Not bad. Here's the link. It's ESPN Insider, but I think you might all be able to see the AFC East projection as it's featured at the top. Projecting every division winner for the 2012 season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Interestingly, pretty exhaustive modeling and projections run by Football Outsiders tabbed the Bills at second in the division with 9.7 wins and a 57% chance of making the playoffs. Not bad. Here's the link. It's ESPN Insider, but I think you might all be able to see the AFC East projection as it's featured at the top. Projecting every division winner for the 2012 season Which again confirms our general impression that the Vegas line at 6.5(?) wins is flat-out nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DukeyBomb Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Football Outsiders also has the 49ers to go 7-9 this season. I doubt that with the easy schedule they have. I see 10-6 to 12-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Which again confirms our general impression that the Vegas line at 6.5(?) wins is flat-out nuts. Where did you see this? Pinnacle has 7.5. Football Outsiders also has the 49ers to go 7-9 this season. I doubt that with the easy schedule they have. I see 10-6 to 12-4. Not regurgitating last year's standings like everyone else always does doesn't make them wrong. You probably didn't see the Chiefs as 10-6 two years ago when they were coming off of 4-12 either (FO had them winning the division that year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awwufelloff Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Hope they are right 10-6 sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 1343762917[/url]' post='2517726']Which again confirms our general impression that the Vegas line at 6.5(?) wins is flat-out nuts. Who is "our" in the "our" general impression of a Vegas line? A Vegas line has nothing to do with a prediction of wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I like football outsiders. They usually have interesting takes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiggieScooby Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Bane: "let the games begin!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Who is "our" in the "our" general impression of a Vegas line? A Vegas line has nothing to do with a prediction of wins "our" is the general consensus of this board that the 6.5 win total that the Bills opened at was low..believe it is 7.5 now...most likely getting to 8. And that bet is an absolute prediction of wins, almost exclusively a sharpie bet. I would think if you gave truth serum to everyone on this board, less than 2% have money on the win total. And the shapes pounded the 6.5 and are still pounding the 7.5, hence the - 180 last I looked. I will tell you this..I value the opinion of guys who bet for a living over 95% of the "experts" on ESPN,PFT,SI,NFLN,etc when it comes to predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsrcursed Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Not regurgitating last year's standings like everyone else always does doesn't make them wrong. You probably didn't see the Chiefs as 10-6 two years ago when they were coming off of 4-12 either (FO had them winning the division that year). IMO, I thinks it's easier to believe a very good team returning most of it's players and adding some key talent will maintain that level of success over a poor performing team. In other words, and what I think was the point, what has San Fran done to warrant such a poor record prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainwampus Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Football Outsiders also has the 49ers to go 7-9 this season. I doubt that with the easy schedule they have. I see 10-6 to 12-4. IMO, 49ers were sure Super Bowl champs last year if it weren't for that 10 cent, back-up punt returner. 7-9 must be some kind of joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleaMoulds80 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I don't know if 10-6 guarantees us a playoff spot. So many rising teams in the AFC this year. Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Broncos, are IMO locks to make the playoffs this year. We'll need to beat the Bengals, Jets, Chargers and possibly Raiders for last wild card spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I don't know if 10-6 guarantees us a playoff spot. So many rising teams in the AFC this year. Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Broncos, are IMO locks to make the playoffs this year. We'll need to beat the Bengals, Jets, Chargers and possibly Raiders for last wild card spot. No such thing as a "lock" - injuries can derail any team. I'd guess that at least one of the teams you mention above as "locks" misses the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 No such thing as a "lock" - injuries can derail any team. I'd guess that at least one of the teams you mention above as "locks" misses the playoffs. That would be an understatement. I'll go ahead and issue an open challenge to anyone who can correctly pick 6 teams to not make the playoffs. $100. If NE wins the East there are 4 spots 'locked up' in the AFC though, that's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleaMoulds80 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 No such thing as a "lock" - injuries can derail any team. I'd guess that at least one of the teams you mention above as "locks" misses the playoffs. No. They're pretty much locks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 1343812006[/url]' post='2518194']"our" is the general consensus of this board that the 6.5 win total that the Bills opened at was low..believe it is 7.5 now...most likely getting to 8. And that bet is an absolute prediction of wins, almost exclusively a sharpie bet. I would think if you gave truth serum to everyone on this board, less than 2% have money on the win total. And the shapes pounded the 6.5 and are still pounding the 7.5, hence the - 180 last I looked. I will tell you this..I value the opinion of guys who bet for a living over 95% of the "experts" on ESPN,PFT,SI,NFLN,etc when it comes to predictions. Vegas lines on wins have nothing to do with what Vegas lines makers forecast will be the number of wins though, ONLY on what they think will draw the most bets on either side of that number. The lines makers could easily forecast the Bills for 8.5 or 9.5 wins in actual games but set the wins betting line at 6.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 IMO, I thinks it's easier to believe a very good team returning most of it's players and adding some key talent will maintain that level of success over a poor performing team. In other words, and what I think was the point, what has San Fran done to warrant such a poor record prediction? perhaps they think that they overachieved, and it will be hard to match that result given their talent? in that division though, even if you dont love the team, its just hard to see them not winning a few more games, ill agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 1343762917[/url]' post='2517726']Which again confirms our general impression that the Vegas line at 6.5(?) wins is flat-out nuts. It's up to 7.5 or 8 everywhere I've seen now. I've been searching for a 6.5 at all the casinos. Can't find it anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloFan68 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I feel pretty good that we will have more than 10 wins this year & I feel the Steelers are going to take another step backwards this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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