Question for John Wawrow.

[JohnC]

For the record, I don't want to be right about the Bills not signing SJ. They need to build a team, not replace pieces year in and year out, or what they've essentially done since TD was fired.

 

It takes a lot of good decisions and eventually money when you draft well to maintain a solid core of players. If the team isn't willing to pay SJ, and we don't know right now, then long term how can anyone expect anything to change? It's merely a ride on the Bills tilt-a-whirl, because they'll sign core player and let another hit UFA. And the fun's just getting started because other key players will come up for extensions in the next 2 seasons: Levitre, Wood, and of course FJ. You may not keep them all, but you oughta to get to them before their peak value to avoid paying premium and losing others. Easier said than done though.

 

If they use the franchise tag, well, there should be a long term plan by the beginning of the regular season to retain his services for multiple seasons or they should trade him. Just tagging him to keep him this season isn't satisfactory either.

 

There is a simple reason why the organization will not use a franchise tag on SJ: He is not worth that type of premium payment, even for one year. Stevie Johnson is a very good #2 receiver. In my view he isn't a #1 caliber of receiver, if I'm wrong on that judgment then at best he is a lower tier #1 receiver.

 

The Bills wanted to keep LB Paul P last year. Paul P got an over-sized contract from Jacksonville. Nix was smart in not matching the offer. In the end the Bills added Barnett to replace Paul P. He was a better or comparable player who was a lot less costly.

 

What the Nix regime is doing fairly well is evaluating talent and their worth. I'm very sure that they want to retain SJ but only at a fair market price. If they panic and overpay for SJ then that type of poorly valued contract will haunt them when they deal with other players.

 

There is no one more critical of this embarrassing organization than I am. However,I'm starting to become more encouraged about the positive direction of the franchise because it is being run by people who know what they are doing. Nix is always going to be hampered with the Wilson/Littman business model. But overall he is doing a solid job in very difficult circumstances.

Edited February 22, 2012 by JohnC

[Kelly the Dog]

Respectfully disagree, obviously. Assuming no deal is struck, all I need to know is what the Bills offered. Doesn't matter much to me what Stevie was asking for. If the Bills' offer was significant, I'll be satisfied that they're trying. The Bills cannot be held responsible for overly greedy demands by an agent.

If no deal is struck, you will very likely never know the real answer to that question, but you're still willing to hold the Bills responsible. .

[Beerball]

There is a simple reason why the organization will not use a franchise tag on SJ: He is not worth that type of premium payment, even for one year. Stevie Johnson is a very good #2 receiver. In my view he isn't a #1 caliber of receiver, if I'm wrong on that judgment then at best he is a lower tier #1 receiver.

 

The Bills wanted to keep LB Paul P last year. Paul P got an over-sized contract from Jacksonville. Nix was smart in not matching the offer. In the end the Bills added Barnett to replace Paul P. He was a better or comparable player who was a lot less costly.

 

What the Nix regime is doing fairly well is evaluating talent and their worth. I'm very sure that they want to retain SJ but only at a fair market price. If they panic and overpay for SJ then that type of poorly valued contract will haunt them when they deal with other players.

 

There is no one more critical of this embarrassing organization than I am. However,I'm starting to become more encouraged about the positive direction of the franchise because it is being run by people who know what they are doing. Nix is always going to be hampered with the Wilson/Littman business model. But overall he is doing a solid job in very difficult circumstances.

Just for the sake of argument, what do you think is a realistic salary for Johnson? What do you think is realistic bonus money?

[JohnC]

Just for the sake of argument, what do you think is a realistic salary for Johnson? What do you think is realistic bonus money?

 

I'm not going to throw out some figures for the sake of throwing out figures. I haven't looked at the salaries of the starting #1 receivers or the top #2 receivers, nor am I inclined to get into that much detail.

 

The way to arrive at a fair-market value is to make a judgment as to where he ranks in the league as a receiver, and then pay him accordingly. He's not even close to being a top tier #1 type receiver. I wouldn't even rate him as a mid-tier #1 caliber of receiver. He is not consistent at catching the ball and he has a tendency at critical times to make game crushing drops. I would rank him as a lower tiered #1 receiver at best. My view of him is that he is a good #2 receiver.

 

So what this organization is probably doing is offering a salary comparable to those same caliber of receivers in the league. Don't think that I'm saying that he is not a good receiver. He is a productive receiver whose numbers are somewhat inflated because our receivers as a group are mediocre. I wouldn't be against giving him a slightly higher salary than his talents call for because he does have a good rapport with Fitz and I think it is important that, when reasonable, the team should error on the side of retaining the players it has developed.

[Buffaloed in Pa]

I'm not going to throw out some figures for the sake of throwing out figures. I haven't looked at the salaries of the starting #1 receivers or the top #2 receivers, nor am I inclined to get into that much detail.

 

The way to arrive at a fair-market value is to make a judgment as to where he ranks in the league as a receiver, and then pay him accordingly. He's not even close to being a top tier #1 type receiver. I wouldn't even rate him as a mid-tier #1 caliber of receiver. He is not consistent at catching the ball and he has a tendency at critical times to make game crushing drops. I would rank him as a lower tiered #1 receiver at best. My view of him is that he is a good #2 receiver.

 

So what this organization is probably doing is offering a salary comparable to those same caliber of receivers in the league. Don't think that I'm saying that he is not a good receiver. He is a productive receiver whose numbers are somewhat inflated because our receivers as a group are mediocre. I wouldn't be against giving him a slightly higher salary than his talents call for because he does have a good rapport with Fitz and I think it is important that, when reasonable, the team should error on the side of retaining the players it has developed.

Nailed it.

[BillnutinHouston]

If no deal is struck, you will very likely never know the real answer to that question, but you're still willing to hold the Bills responsible. .

 

Time will tell if this is an issue or not, and if we ever know the details of what the Bills offered. But yes, as a multi-year season ticket holder who now has to travel 3000 miles roundtrip per game, I'll set my own threshold of responsibility if/when Stevie walks.

[mob16151]

I have a question for jw. Let's say you have a source, it's been generally reliable, and you don't have to many qualms about using it. So let's say that he gave you a scoop, and you ran with it. And in this particular case your able to verify the information was wrong. How do you all correct that? And do you use the source less in the future,or try to independently verify whatever they tell you in the future?

 

Thanks for the reply.

[RevWarRifleman]

more often than not it's the reporter making the calls to pry out information. on occasion, there are times when a person will call you to give you a heads up. it doesn't happen that often.

in some cases, there's word out there about something going on from a source who's considered somewhat reliable or someone with no direct knowledge of this information, as in the person got it second hand. that's where the reporter checks in with the people who are more directly involved in order to confirm or discredit what he's heard.

 

and the latter -- the discrediting of rumors -- happens more often than not.

 

also, reporters try to check in with people in the know on a weekly, monthly or (when things are breaking) daily basis. these conversations also lead to potential stories, either breaking or something down the road.

 

jw

 

oh, and though i missed it, thanks for the cleanup.

 

 

i don't understand what you mean by half-truths. the two sides are "far apart" though somewhat ambiguous is an update to the fact that the two sides exchanged offers a week earlier. that both sides are far apart, is an indication that a deal isn't imminent.

i could have speculated in the story as to why, but that would lead to further speculation. a person familiar with discussions told me they're "far apart," and that's what i wrote.

the whole process is open to interpretation because talks are ongoing. and who knows.

 

but the fact that they're far apart isn't a good sign at this juncture, because they were far apart in December.

 

jw

Thanks for taking the time & explaining the process,John. Hopefully there will be something positive towards a deal to report this week.

[Astrobot]

Very interesting John. Thanks--

[Beerball]

I'm not going to throw out some figures for the sake of throwing out figures. I haven't looked at the salaries of the starting #1 receivers or the top #2 receivers, nor am I inclined to get into that much detail.

 

The way to arrive at a fair-market value is to make a judgment as to where he ranks in the league as a receiver, and then pay him accordingly. He's not even close to being a top tier #1 type receiver. I wouldn't even rate him as a mid-tier #1 caliber of receiver. He is not consistent at catching the ball and he has a tendency at critical times to make game crushing drops. I would rank him as a lower tiered #1 receiver at best. My view of him is that he is a good #2 receiver.

 

So what this organization is probably doing is offering a salary comparable to those same caliber of receivers in the league. Don't think that I'm saying that he is not a good receiver. He is a productive receiver whose numbers are somewhat inflated because our receivers as a group are mediocre. I wouldn't be against giving him a slightly higher salary than his talents call for because he does have a good rapport with Fitz and I think it is important that, when reasonable, the team should error on the side of retaining the players it has developed.

Here are some salary figures using average salary (salary plus bonus):

 

link

 

Based on your comments you'd put him no higher than #20 which today (assuming the link is correct) is worth under $5M.

[JohnC]

Here are some salary figures using average salary (salary plus bonus):

 

link

 

 

 

Based on your comments you'd put him no higher than #20 which today (assuming the link is correct) is worth under $5M.

 

Thanks for the link.

 

Salaries are being bumped up and he is going into his next contract. So I would put him in the $6-7 million range. I rank him in the vicinity of Jordy Nelson from Green Bay. Because he developed while being a Bill I would factor that in offering him a little more.

 

In order to be successful on a sustainable basis the organization has to develop a fair-market value system. It has to have the fortitude (guts) to not panic when a player is able to find a richer offer (outside of their established value). The cap system is designed to facilitate player movement. No team is going to be able to keep all its players.

 

A lot of people are making it out as if Stevie Johnson is an indispensible player. In my view he is not. He is as indispensible as LB Paul P was last year. For the right price he is worth keeping. For the wrong price he is not worth keeping. If Stevie bolts then more power to him. I wish him the best. As with the Paul P scenario there are plenty of equally talented players at better prices who can more than adequately replace him.

Edited February 23, 2012 by JohnC

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I agree a lot with what you're saying John but ultimately the number is where the rubber meets the road.

 

I'm not sure where you're getting Jordy Nelson from. I thought he extended his rookie deal last year without hitting free agency and I believe that if he hits all incentives that he'll make about $15 million over 3 years. This is probably close to the deal the Bills and Stevie could have made had he re-signed before this past season.

 

So Nelson's situation is quite different, IMO. He'll make much less next year than Stevie makes, wherever Stevie makes it.

 

I also think Stevie will make north of 7 but that depends also on the guaranteed money and the length of the deal.

[Delete This Account]

I have a question for jw. Let's say you have a source, it's been generally reliable, and you don't have to many qualms about using it. So let's say that he gave you a scoop, and you ran with it. And in this particular case your able to verify the information was wrong. How do you all correct that? And do you use the source less in the future,or try to independently verify whatever they tell you in the future?

 

Thanks for the reply.

i would not use a source who has been "generally" reliable. as noted, we only quote sources who have direct knowledge of what is being discussed. that lessens by far any chance of there being something published that is incorrect. and, each time i use a person who has knowledge with the story, i am also required to answer a question of whether i trust that person.

i answer truthfully every time.

my reputation as well as the AP's is on the line each time we cite a person on the condition of anonymity. the key always is to be right rather than being first.

and there have been several occasions when i've declined to go with a story -- even though others have had it -- because the person i spoke to didn't have direct knowledge.

 

jw

[JohnC]

I agree a lot with what you're saying John but ultimately the number is where the rubber meets the road.

 

I'm not sure where you're getting Jordy Nelson from. I thought he extended his rookie deal last year without hitting free agency and I believe that if he hits all incentives that he'll make about $15 million over 3 years. This is probably close to the deal the Bills and Stevie could have made had he re-signed before this past season.

 

So Nelson's situation is quite different, IMO. He'll make much less next year than Stevie makes, wherever Stevie makes it.

 

I also think Stevie will make north of 7 but that depends also on the guaranteed money and the length of the deal.

 

There are a lot of variables that go into determining the value of a particular player. One player's value, although comparable to another player, can be much different. If a team is loaded with receivers or has a younger talent waiting in the wings it might lower the contract offer for a player. There is nothing precise about evaluating a player and one's worth. The point I am stressing in my prior posts is that this organization has to make a judgment on the range of a players worth. If the player has a substantially different view of his worth compared to the team's value then the player has the option of testing the market.

 

My preference is to keep Stevie Johnson. But if his contract demands are outside of the organization's contract value for him then the team should seek other player options. Where I differ from many others is that I consider Stevie to be a good receiver but he is far from being an indispensable player. There are plenty of similar type players who are more mature and less self-centered who can be had.

 

My central point is that the Stevie Johnson contract issue doesn't so much relate to him as it relates to how the organization functions. Do they have a quality decision-making process (player evaluations) that will allow them to compete with the more successful organizations? Players come and go. You can't avoid that---it is part of the fabric of the system. How intelligently an organization responds to the complexity of those decisions determines how successful it is going to be.

 

Nix made the right call on LB Paul P. That indicates to me that he is capable of doing the same with Stevie Johnson.

[mob16151]

i would not use a source who has been "generally" reliable. as noted, we only quote sources who have direct knowledge of what is being discussed. that lessens by far any chance of there being something published that is incorrect. and, each time i use a person who has knowledge with the story, i am also required to answer a question of whether i trust that person.

i answer truthfully every time.

my reputation as well as the AP's is on the line each time we cite a person on the condition of anonymity. the key always is to be right rather than being first.

and there have been several occasions when i've declined to go with a story -- even though others have had it -- because the person i spoke to didn't have direct knowledge.

 

jw

 

Ok got you. Thanks for the clarification.

[papazoid]

i would not use a source who has been "generally" reliable. as noted, we only quote sources who have direct knowledge of what is being discussed. that lessens by far any chance of there being something published that is incorrect. and, each time i use a person who has knowledge with the story, i am also required to answer a question of whether i trust that person.

i answer truthfully every time.

my reputation as well as the AP's is on the line each time we cite a person on the condition of anonymity. the key always is to be right rather than being first.

and there have been several occasions when i've declined to go with a story -- even though others have had it -- because the person i spoke to didn't have direct knowledge.

 

jw

 

it can't be said enough...

 

John Wawrow, your contributions to TBD are GREATLY appreciated !!

[Beerball]

Thanks for the link.

 

Salaries are being bumped up and he is going into his next contract. So I would put him in the $6-7 million range. I rank him in the vicinity of Jordy Nelson from Green Bay. Because he developed while being a Bill I would factor that in offering him a little more.

 

In order to be successful on a sustainable basis the organization has to develop a fair-market value system. It has to have the fortitude (guts) to not panic when a player is able to find a richer offer (outside of their established value). The cap system is designed to facilitate player movement. No team is going to be able to keep all its players.

 

A lot of people are making it out as if Stevie Johnson is an indispensible player. In my view he is not. He is as indispensible as LB Paul P was last year. For the right price he is worth keeping. For the wrong price he is not worth keeping. If Stevie bolts then more power to him. I wish him the best. As with the Paul P scenario there are plenty of equally talented players at better prices who can more than adequately replace him.

I guess that the point that I'm trying to get to is...if Johnson is 'worth' $7M, using the high end of your range because it suits my purposes then why isn't he worth $9.4M? That's what it would cost the Bills to keep him one additional season. It makes no sense to me that the Bills are unwilling to use the franchsie tag. If nothing else it gives them one less hole to fill this off season, I don't see anything negative to tagging him.

[JohnC]

I guess that the point that I'm trying to get to is...if Johnson is 'worth' $7M, using the high end of your range because it suits my purposes then why isn't he worth $9.4M? That's what it would cost the Bills to keep him one additional season. It makes no sense to me that the Bills are unwilling to use the franchsie tag. If nothing else it gives them one less hole to fill this off season, I don't see anything negative to tagging him.

 

I still wouldn't franchise Stevie Johnson because I don't believe that he is worth the $9.4 million price tag. What is the point of keeping him for a year knowing that you won't be able to retain him for the price you consider to be fair value. If you are going to spend $9.4 million then spend it on a player such as Colston, who is better than the juvenile Stevie and from whom you will get a better valued contract relative to talent level.

 

The problem with your scenario is that by overpaying for SJ you could be creating contract conflicts later on with a player who might outperform him, such as David Nelson. The problem I have with those who are clamoring to keep him at all costs(not saying you are in that category) is that they are treating Stevie Johnson as if he is an indispensable player. He isn't. There are a number of average to above average receivers who can replace him without it affecting the offense.

 

I'm not against keeping SJ. My preference is to get a deal done. A deal that makes sense for the organization and that fairly compensates him. Odds are a deal will be struck. If not, the organization will move on with a suitable replacement without it having any noticeable affect on the field.

 

My overall point about this issue isn't about SJ. It is stressing the importance of the front office making quality value based decisions on the staffing of the roster. My concern is more about the process than about this very self-centered and immature player.

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

For anyone trying to evaluate what Stevie Johnson is worth, I thought this link offered an interesting perspective:

 

http://www.nyjetscap.com/2012_Articles/steviejohnsonvalue.php

[San Jose Bills Fan]

For anyone trying to evaluate what Stevie Johnson is worth, I thought this link offered an interesting perspective:

 

http://www.nyjetscap...ohnsonvalue.php

Thanks for posting.

 

BTW, can you believe doing such an exhaustive study-type article without being paid for it?

 

Kudos to the writer who amazingly wrote the piece anonymously.

 

Anyways, a short excerpt from the exhaustive article:

 

"I had a request to look at Buffalo Bills WR Stevie Johnson, so here goes. Johnson is one of those real success stories in the NFL. Based on draft positioning you would not expect much from Johnson. He was a 7th round pick in the 2008 NFL draft, picks that often have about as much a chance at success in the NFL as an undrafted free agent. Johnson ended up on a team with relatively poor QB play, a rotation that included JP Losman, Trent Edwards, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Johnson has played for 3 head coaches and an offense that typically ranks in the 20s in yardage. Yet somehow Johnson has overcome the odds and is set to cash in big as an unrestricted free agent in 2012.

Earlier this year there were reports that Johnson was seeking about $7.5 million a year from the Bills, a figure that the Bills reportedly were not interested in discussing, offering closer to $5.5 million a season. Talks broke down as the Bills finalized a ridiculous contract for journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, and would be tabled until the offseason…

So what would the market look like for Johnson now? Johnson should be worth somewhere between $8.45 and $8.6 million a year to a team. There is no escape from a three year total, which is essentially guaranteed. Other than Jennings, who only received 3 new years, all of the current long term extension players received around $30 million. He should not receive less than $28.5 million. In terms of firm guarantees he will be in the $18 million range. Holmes received $24 million which is far more than anyone else at the position, but nearly $8 million of that is a conditional guarantee based on being on the roster, something that he may not even be by the end of this month. That brings his real guarantee down into the $16 million range. So he will probably receive around $18 million in guaranteed money.

 

If the Bills can get Johnson for $7.5 million a season it’s a real steal."